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Best MLB prop bets Sept. 15: Back pitchers Carlos Rodon, Ranger Suarez and Kyle Bradish

I’m targeting three starting pitchers for Monday’s MLB player prop recommendations.

Today’s MLB props narrative: My best bet is on Carlos Rodon, who has been dealing and giving the New York Yankees innings. I expect him to do it again on the road against the Minnesota Twins.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 15, featuring predictions on Kyle Bradish and Ranger Suarez.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Rodon over 17.5 outs (-124)

Rodon doesn’t have his elite strikeout numbers from years past, but he’s doing a lot of things well and has stayed on the mound.

The lefty is two innings shy of setting a career-high mark for innings pitched, something he should easily clear tonight.

Rodon enters Monday’s start with strong numbers across the board. And make no mistake, he still misses plenty of bats.

He has his highest ground-ball rate since 2017 and a .187 opponents’ batting average. The only year he was better was 2021 (.186).

Rodon has had multiple seasons with a 30% K rate, but he’s still well above average at 26%.

He’s top 15 among qualified starters in ERA and ranks eighth in xERA (3.29).

Rodon has allowed two runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts, putting up a 2.38 ERA over that stretch.

The 32-year-old has topped this line in five of his last six outings, logging 5.2 innings the one time he fell short.

Key stat: Rodon has thrown six-plus innings in 18 of his 30 starts.

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Best MLB picks

Suarez over 4.5 Ks (-141) & 5.5 Ks (+155): Suarez’s strikeout upside is impossible to ignore.

Make no mistake, he has one of his most challenging assignments of the season on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

But there are harder teams to retire on strikes, and Suarez eats innings, too.

The Philadelphia Phillies southpaw has his best K rate since becoming a full-time starter in 2022 and has been lethal of late.

Suarez has produced double-digit strikeout totals in three of his last five starts.

He’s 11th in ERA and top 10 in FIP among starters who have thrown 140-plus innings. His consistency has allowed him to work into the sixth inning in 19 of his 23 starts.

The longer he’s out there, the more chances he has to pile up Ks.

Suarez has recorded five-plus Ks in 17 starts and notched at least six in 13.

Bradish over 5.5 Ks (-104): The Orioles right-hander is showing that he’ll be a huge piece in Baltimore’s rotation next year, assuming he’s healthy.

Bradish has been limited to three starts this season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. The results have been super encouraging.

Vs. PIT: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K
@ SD: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K
Vs. BOS: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 10 K

That works out to an elite 32.3% K rate.

Before Bradish went down last year, he had a mark of 32.5% over eight starts. That came a year after posting a well-above-average 25.0 K% in the first 30-start year of his career.

Bradish can miss bats and should continue to tonight against the Chicago White Sox.

The White Sox have the eighth-highest K rate this month and have struck out at a top-10 clip vs. right-handers this season.

MLB prop picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 09/15/2025.

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MLB home run picks Sept. 15: Back Aaron Judge, Willy Adames on Monday

Aaron Judge is in a groove, and headlines Monday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Judge is barreling toward his third AL MVP award and fourth 50-homer season. The New York Yankees star slugger has respectable odds to go deep against Simeon Woods Richardson in Minnesota.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 15, featuring a pick on Willy Adames.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Judge to hit a home run (+175)

There aren’t many players you’ll find with +175 odds to go deep, especially at offence-neutral venues like Target Field.

But Judge is an anomaly in so many ways.

He’s belted 48 home runs this year, and passed the legendary Joe DiMaggio with his 362nd home run as a Yankee on Friday.

Judge added another on Sunday and has now gone deep in four of his last six games. In that stretch, he’s slashing an absurd .450/.560/1.200.

Woods Richardson and Co. would be wise to pitch around Judge, but everyone has tried that, and it seldom works.

The one-time Toronto Blue Jays prospect has struggled this year, posting a 4.58 ERA across 19 starts. He’s also given up six home runs in his last five outings.

Key stat: Judge leads MLB in home runs per at-bat (0.10).

Best HR predictions

Adames to hit a home run (+400): Let’s turn our attention to the West Coast to balance out Judge’s short odds with a much healthier +400 play.

Adames has been on fire during the San Francisco Giants’ playoff push, belting nine home runs over the last 30 days. In that span, his .315 ISO ranks 12th in MLB.

Tonight, he gets to go up against Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen.

The 30-year-old is having a nightmare season, posting career-worsts in ERA (4.84), opponent slugging (.431), and K/9 rate (8.1).

His 1.4 HR/9 rate is tied for his career-worst, too, and is the sixth-highest among qualified pitchers.

Adames is just 3-for-24 against Gallen, but two of those hits left the yard.

And Adames’ .257 xBA and .595 xSLG in those at-bats indicate he’s been a bit unlucky.

MLB home run picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 09/15/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 15: Back Aaron Judge, Willy Adames on Monday

Aaron Judge is in a groove, and headlines Monday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Judge is barreling toward his third AL MVP award and fourth 50-homer season. The New York Yankees star slugger has respectable odds to go deep against Simeon Woods Richardson in Minnesota.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 15, featuring a pick on Willy Adames.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Judge to hit a home run (+180)

There aren’t many players you’ll find with +180 odds to go deep, especially at offence-neutral venues like Target Field.

But Judge is an anomaly in so many ways.

He’s belted 48 home runs this year, and passed the legendary Joe DiMaggio with his 362nd home run as a Yankee on Friday.

Judge added another on Sunday and has now gone deep in four of his last six games. In that stretch, he’s slashing an absurd .450/.560/1.200.

Woods Richardson and Co. would be wise to pitch around Judge, but everyone has tried that, and it seldom works.

The one-time Toronto Blue Jays prospect has struggled this year, posting a 4.58 ERA across 19 starts. He’s also given up six home runs in his last five outings.

Key stat: Judge leads MLB in home runs per at-bat (0.10).

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Best HR predictions

Adames to hit a home run (+430): Let’s turn our attention to the West Coast to balance out Judge’s short odds with a much healthier +430 play.

Adames has been on fire during the San Francisco Giants’ playoff push, belting nine home runs over the last 30 days. In that span, his .315 ISO ranks 12th in MLB.

Tonight, he gets to go up against Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen.

The 30-year-old is having a nightmare season, posting career-worsts in ERA (4.84), opponent slugging (.431), and K/9 rate (8.1).

His 1.4 HR/9 rate is tied for his career-worst, too, and is the sixth-highest among qualified pitchers.

Adames is just 3-for-24 against Gallen, but two of those hits left the yard.

And Adames’ .257 xBA and .595 xSLG in those at-bats indicate he’s been a bit unlucky.

MLB home run picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 09/15/2025.

Blue Jays best bet vs. Rays Sept. 15: Bet on Toronto to win Yesavage’s MLB debut

The Toronto Blue Jays’ No. 1 prospect, Trey Yesavage, gets the start for his MLB debut on Monday against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The pregame narrative: Rotation depth hasn’t been an issue for the Blue Jays, but they’ve opted to give their veteran group a breather by calling up the 22-year-old Yesavage. Toronto is just 1-5 vs. Tampa Bay this year, but the teams haven’t squared off since May.

Check out my Blue Jays best bet vs. the Rays for Sept. 15.

Blue Jays best bet vs. Rays

Best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-120)

You never know exactly what to expect from a pitcher making his MLB debut, but this pick isn’t solely about Yesavage.

Toronto has been the far superior team offensively this season. Check out the difference in production over the past 30 days:

Blue Jays: 5.85 runs/game, .811 OPS, 124 wRC+

Rays: 4.38 runs/game, .729 OPS, 100 wRC+

Behind Yesavage, the Blue Jays have six relievers who’ve only worked either once or not at all in the past three days. So there should be plenty of pitching support, and I expect run support, too.

But let’s not forget that Yesavage was locked in during the final stretch of his minor-league tenure.

Over his final five outings with Triple-A Buffalo, Yesavage posted a 2.87 ERA and a 13.2 K/9.

Key stat: Toronto has won four games in a row, while Tampa Bay is 2-7 in its past nine.

Blue Jays best bet made at 11:27 a.m. ET on 09/15/2025.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays Sept. 15: Bet on Springer to produce, Toronto to win Yesavage’s MLB debut

The Toronto Blue Jays’ No. 1 prospect, Trey Yesavage, gets the start for his MLB debut on Monday against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The pregame narrative: Rotation depth hasn’t been an issue for the Blue Jays, but they’ve opted to give their veteran group a breather by calling up the 22-year-old Yesavage. Toronto is just 1-5 vs. Tampa Bay this year, but the teams haven’t squared off since May.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rays for Sept. 15, including a prop pick on George Springer.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays

Best bet: Springer over 0.5 runs (-118)

This might not seem like an exciting price to pay, but Springer has been well worth it in the past two months.

Since the all-star break (37 games), Springer has been on an absurd heater:

.370 BA
.462 OBP
.685 SLG
46 runs
1+ runs in 28 of 37

It’s been a spectacular second half for the Blue Jays’ biggest bats, as three of them (including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette) rank inside MLB’s top five in wRC+.

Springer leads the way with a 215 wRC+.

The veteran leadoff man is a great pick to score regardless of who’s on the mound right now, which is handy because the Rays’ starter hasn’t been announced at the time of this writing.

Right-hander Joe Boyle could be the guy, though, after he was scratched from his start for Triple-A Durham on Sunday.

Boyle has made five starts for the Rays since the all-star break, coughing up 22 runs and 39 baserunners in that span (9.68 ERA). So if he’s on the bump, that should boost Springer’s chances.

I also like Springer over 1.5 total bases (+105), especially if he’s facing Boyle.

The righty averages 98.6 mph on his fastball, and Springer is one of Toronto’s best when it comes to handling the heat (.556 SLG on pitches with a 97+ mph velocity, per Baseball Savant).

Key stat: Springer has scored 15 runs in his past 11 games.

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Jays ML pick

Blue Jays moneyline (-130): You never know exactly what to expect from a pitcher making his MLB debut, but this pick isn’t solely about Yesavage.

Toronto has been the far superior team offensively this season. Check out the difference in production over the past 30 days:

Blue Jays: 5.85 runs/game, .811 OPS, 124 wRC+

Rays: 4.38 runs/game, .729 OPS, 100 wRC+

Behind Yesavage, the Blue Jays have six relievers who’ve only worked either once or not at all in the past three days. So there should be plenty of pitching support, and I expect run support, too.

But let’s not forget that Yesavage was locked in during the final stretch of his minor-league tenure.

Over his final five outings with Triple-A Buffalo, Yesavage posted a 2.87 ERA and a 13.2 K/9.

Blue Jays best bets made at 10:47 a.m. ET on 09/15/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 14: Target Trevor Story, Rafael Devers on Sunday

On Sunday, two all-star bats headline my MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Rafael Devers has been very efficient at the plate lately. He’ll have a shot to keep his hot streak going against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Later on, look for Trevor Story to shine on Sunday Night Baseball.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 14, featuring a prediction on Jake Cronenworth.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Devers to score (+115)

Devers gets on base a lot thanks to his 97th-percentile walk rate (15.4%).

His .378 on-base percentage currently ranks as the best in his nine-year career and routinely puts him in a good position to score.

And that’s led to some incredible results over the last 16 games:

.311 batting average
.425 OBP
19 runs scored

Tyler Glasnow will start for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and I’ll give him credit — he’s been a beast this season.

But Devers has the upper hand in the head-to-head history. The slugging infielder has reached base 10 times in 24 plate appearances vs. Glasnow.

That’s probably because he tends to enjoy a platoon advantage. He has an even better .398 OBP this season against right-handed pitchers.

Key stat: Devers is 13-3 against this wager over the past 16 games.

Best MLB picks

Story over 1.5 bases (+100): In primetime, I expect Story to come through for the Boston Red Sox.

He’s gone hitless in this series so far, but this is a great chance to get back on track.

Even including the slow start vs. the New York Yankees, Story is raking over the past 11 games:

.302 BA
.883 OPS
23 total bases

Additionally, he gets to face an inexperienced Will Warren on the mound.

It’s a short sample size, but in five at-bats vs. Warren, Story has two hits, one of which was a home run.

Cronenworth to score (+115): Cronenworth caught my eye as a bottom-of-the-order hitter with a lot of value based on how he’s playing.

In his past 19 games, he has a .296 BA and a whopping .451 OBP.

Cronenworth has more walks (14) than Ks (10) over that span.

He’s scored 11 runs and cashed this wager 10 times.

This series is being played in San Diego, but the Colorado Rockies’ weak pitching staff can be taken advantage of even away from Coors Field.

Colorado will start German Marquez, whose 6.31 ERA is third-worst in MLB among pitchers with over 100 innings of work.

In 21 at-bats vs. Marquez, Cronenworth has a .286 average and a 1.062 OPS.

MLB prop picks made at 1:03 p.m. ET on 09/14/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 14: Target Trevor Story, Rafael Devers on Sunday

On Sunday, two all-star bats headline my MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Rafael Devers has been very efficient at the plate lately. He’ll have a shot to keep his hot streak going against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Later on, look for Trevor Story to shine on Sunday Night Baseball.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 14, featuring a prediction on Jake Cronenworth.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Devers to score (+123)

Devers gets on base a lot thanks to his 97th-percentile walk rate (15.4%).

His .378 on-base percentage currently ranks as the best in his nine-year career and routinely puts him in a good position to score.

And that’s led to some incredible results over the last 16 games:

.311 batting average
.425 OBP
19 runs scored

Tyler Glasnow will start for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and I’ll give him credit — he’s been a beast this season.

But Devers has the upper hand in the head-to-head history. The slugging infielder has reached base 10 times in 24 plate appearances vs. Glasnow.

That’s probably because he tends to enjoy a platoon advantage. He has an even better .398 OBP this season against right-handed pitchers.

Key stat: Devers is 13-3 against this wager over the past 16 games.

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Best MLB picks

Story over 1.5 bases (+106): In primetime, I expect Story to come through for the Boston Red Sox.

He’s gone hitless in this series so far, but this is a great chance to get back on track.

Even including the slow start vs. the New York Yankees, Story is raking over the past 11 games:

.302 BA
.883 OPS
23 total bases

Additionally, he gets to face an inexperienced Will Warren on the mound.

It’s a short sample size, but in five at-bats vs. Warren, Story has two hits, one of which was a home run.

Cronenworth to score (+118): Cronenworth caught my eye as a bottom-of-the-order hitter with a lot of value based on how he’s playing.

In his past 19 games, he has a .296 BA and a whopping .451 OBP.

Cronenworth has more walks (14) than Ks (10) over that span.

He’s scored 11 runs and cashed this wager 10 times.

This series is being played in San Diego, but the Colorado Rockies’ weak pitching staff can be taken advantage of even away from Coors Field.

Colorado will start German Marquez, whose 6.31 ERA is third-worst in MLB among pitchers with over 100 innings of work.

In 21 at-bats vs. Marquez, Cronenworth has a .286 average and a 1.062 OPS.

MLB prop picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 09/14/2025.

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Yankees vs. Red Sox Sunday Night Baseball picks: Bet on Boston to win behind Garrett Crochet

The New York Yankees can earn a seismic three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: The Red Sox’s pennant hopes are reeling. Boston needs a win under the lights of Sunday Night Baseball to keep pace in the AL East. Garrett Crochet comes to the rescue in a game where I expect both starting pitchers to shine.

Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees picks, featuring a prop bet on Will Warren.

Yankees vs. Red Sox picks

Best Bet: Warren over 4.5 strikeouts (-150)

Boston is my preferred side in this game, but there’s unignorable value on this prop.

Warren is topping this line more often than not. He’s totalled five-plus strikeouts in 18 of his 30 appearances (60%).

The matchup also makes this a great opportunity to back this wager.

The Red Sox are a swing-happy club. They’re averaging the seventh-most strikeouts per game this season (8.81), and are averaging nine strikeouts per outing across their last three.

Warren has battled the Red Sox twice this year, totalling nine strikeouts. With a lot of swing-and-miss in Boston’s bats recently, I’ll take the over on Warren in this market.

Key stat: Warren has a 66th-percentile strikeout percentage this season (24.7), according to Baseball Savant.

Best MLB pick

Red Sox -1.5 (+137): Crochet getting the start really makes a difference for Boston.

The Red Sox are 20-9 in Crochet’s appearances this year, and they’re covering this spread at an impressive clip.

Boston has won by two-plus runs in 16 of Crochet’s 29 outings this season (55.2%).

He’s been excellent against the Yankees specifically. Crochet has a 2.95 ERA and 27 strikeouts in three starts against New York. The Red Sox covered this spread in two of those games.

Yankees under 3.5 runs (-138): New York’s offence has been effective in two games against Boston (nine runs), but it isn’t lighting the world on fire lately.

In fact, the Yankees have gone under on this prop in four of their last eight games.

The Crochet factor also looms large. He’s done very well against New York’s hitters, earning a 36.7% strikeout percentage while keeping its hitters to a .224 batting average in 90 plate appearances.

The Yankees have only mustered two runs in their last two games versus Crochet.

Yankees vs. Red Sox picks made at 10:54 a.m. ET on 09/14/2025.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Sunday Night Baseball picks: Bet on Boston to win behind Garrett Crochet

The New York Yankees can earn a seismic three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: The Red Sox’s pennant hopes are reeling. Boston needs a win under the lights of Sunday Night Baseball to keep pace in the AL East. Garrett Crochet comes to the rescue in a game where I expect both starting pitchers to shine.

Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees picks, featuring a prop bet on Will Warren.

Yankees vs. Red Sox picks

Best Bet: Warren over 4.5 strikeouts (-130)

Boston is my preferred side in this game, but there’s unignorable value on this prop.

Warren is topping this line more often than not. He’s totalled five-plus strikeouts in 18 of his 30 appearances (60%), which is a higher rate than the implied odds of this prop (56.2%).

The matchup also makes this a great opportunity to back this wager.

The Red Sox are a swing-happy club. They’re averaging the seventh-most strikeouts per game this season (8.81), and are averaging nine strikeouts per outing across their last three.

Warren has battled the Red Sox twice this year, totalling nine strikeouts. With a lot of swing-and-miss in Boston’s bats recently, I’ll take the over on Warren in this market.

Key stat: Warren has a 66th-percentile strikeout percentage this season (24.7), according to Baseball Savant.

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Best MLB pick

Red Sox -1.5 (+140): Crochet getting the start really makes a difference for Boston.

The Red Sox are 20-9 in Crochet’s appearances this year, and they’re covering this spread at an impressive clip.

Boston has won by two-plus runs in 16 of Crochet’s 29 outings this season (55.2%). That’s a much higher percentage than the implied odds of this bet (41.2%).

He’s been excellent against the Yankees specifically. Crochet has a 2.95 ERA and 27 strikeouts in three starts against New York. The Red Sox covered this spread in two of those games.

Yankees under 3.5 runs (-124): New York’s offence has been effective in two games against Boston (nine runs), but it isn’t lighting the world on fire lately.

In fact, the Yankees have gone under on this prop in four of their last eight games.

The Crochet factor also looms large. He’s done very well against New York’s hitters, earning a 36.7% strikeout percentage while keeping its hitters to a .224 batting average in 90 plate appearances.

The Yankees have only mustered two runs in their last two games versus Crochet.

Yankees vs. Red Sox picks made at 10:54 a.m. ET on 09/14/2025.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays SGP predictions Sept. 14: Bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +310

The Toronto Blue Jays have a shot at a series sweep over the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto needed some comeback heroics against yesterday to pick up a huge win over an AL East opponent. In the finale, Shane Bieber takes the mound opposite Albert Suarez for Baltimore.

Check out my Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions for Sept. 14, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ryan Mountcastle.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions

Parlay: Blue Jays ML | Guerrero over 1.5 bases | Mountcastle 1+ hit (+310)

Blue Jays ML (-205): With Bieber on the mound, the Jays should have a nice pitching advantage.

He may not be at his peak as a starter, but he’s been good enough that the Jays have won three of his four starts this season.

Bieber’s 4.30 ERA isn’t spectacular, but his 27.5% K rate and 3.3% walk rate are both elite.

The underlying statistics show that Bieber hasn’t lost his stuff, but rather he’s still working off the rust and should continue to improve with more reps.

For the Orioles, Suarez will make the start, but I don’t expect him to work more than a few innings.

The 35-year-old was on the 60-day injured list until the start of September and hasn’t pitched more than three innings in his trio of appearances.

So even if he’s solid, the Blue Jays will see a lot of bullpen arms. Baltimore has the eighth-worst bullpen ERA in the majors (4.49).

That all goes before mentioning Toronto’s advantage on offence. The Jays have the third-best WRC+ since the All-Star break (123) and have outscored the Orioles 11-5 through the first two games.

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MLB SGP legs

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-112): Guerrero is playing at an MVP-calibre level in the second half of the season, just like last year.

His numbers have been outstanding since the All-Star break, but let me focus on just the 11 games played this month.

.500 batting average
1.265 OPS
31 total bases in 50 plate appearances

His 91st-percentile walk rate (12.7%) is always going to be a problem with this type of wager, but he’s just swinging such a hot bat right now that it doesn’t bother me.

Guerrero is 7-4 against this wager in September.

Mountcastle 1+ hit (-190): There are a couple of things to note for this wager.

Firstly, Mountcastle is playing really well right now. Over his past 25 games, he’s batting .290 (19-6 against this wager).

He also seems to love hitting against the Jays. Mountcastle is batting .298 with 15 home runs and 53 RBI in 72 games. That is a 43 home run, 119 RBI pace over a 162-game season.

That’s too big a sample size to be solely a coincidence, and Jays fans should take it personally.

But as a bettor, that only increases my confidence in this final leg.

Blue Jays picks as of 8:36 a.m. on 09/14/2025.