Category: MLB

Fresh off a champagne and beer shower to celebrate their playoff berth, the Toronto Blue Jays are back at home with another important series on tap.

Toronto (90-66) became the first American League club to clinch a playoff spot, and the AL East title is the next thing in its sights. The Jays, who lead their division by two games, host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre this week with a shot at securing the No. 1 seed.

Check out our Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview for the Sept. 23-25 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview

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The Blue Jays are in as great a shape as anyone could’ve asked for entering the season.

Entering the final week, they hold a multi-game lead in the contentious AL East with a prime opportunity to lock down the division at home.

Monday was a well-timed day off for a team that might’ve had a few hangovers following Sunday’s sudsy celebration. It’s back to work on Tuesday against a Red Sox team that is awfully hungry for a party of its own.

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Boston is technically still alive for the division, but sitting five games back with six to play makes that an incredible long shot.

What’s more important for the Red Sox is securing a wild-card spot, as they are one of three teams competing for the AL’s fifth and sixth seeds.

Boston’s three best starters are lined up for this series, and both teams have rested bullpens. We could be in for some chess matches inside The Dome this week.

Starting pitcher matchups

Sept. 9: RHP Lucas Giolito (10-4, 3.46 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.38 ERA)

• Both of Giolito’s outings vs. the Jays this year were quality starts, but it’s been almost three months since he saw them. Giolito’s 5.04 xERA and .273 xBA are both in the bottom-20th percentile in MLB, per Baseball Savant, so his solid results this year could be a bit fluky.

• Gausman wasn’t an all-star this year, but he would be if the first and second halves were flipped. Since the break, the right-hander has a 2.19 ERA and a .170 opponent batting average in 11 outings. Somehow, Toronto is only 5-6 in those games.

Sept. 10: RHP Garrett Crochet (17-5, 2.69 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (5-4, 5.06 ERA)

• Crochet has been even better than advertised in his first season with Boston, pacing the majors in strikeouts (249) and innings (197.1) in just his second year as a starter. The Red Sox are 22-9 in his outings, winning each of the past six.

• Scherzer is coming off his worst start of the year, as he allowed seven runs while recording just two outs against the Royals. He has a 9.45 ERA over his past five starts, with 35 baserunners allowed in 20.0 innings. This would be a logical piggybacking opportunity for Jose Berrios, who was moved to the bullpen but hasn’t pitched since Sept. 16.

Sept. 11: RHP Brayan Bello (11-8, 3.34 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (3-2, 3.57 ERA)

• Toronto hitters have seen plenty of Bello through the years, and the results have been solid on their side. The Jays’ lineup is batting .299 with a .449 SLG in 127 at-bats vs. Bello. In his lone start against Toronto this year, he allowed three runs on eight hits over 6.0 IP in a 9-0 loss.

• It’s only been six starts, but Bieber continues to be a reliable arm for Toronto. He has pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in every outing, and he has a 6.8 K/BB ratio (MLB average is 2.62).

Who’s hot and who’s not

George Springer (DH/OF): Springer still has MLB’s best wRC+ in the second half (206), and his September has been among the league’s best, too. This month, the veteran outfielder has a .333/.419/.640 slash line in 18 games. He is 10-9 vs. both his runs prop and his total bases prop.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B): Am I nitpicking by highlighting Guerrero here? Maybe a little bit. He hasn’t been bad per se, but his 14-game home run drought is worth noting. In that span, Guerrero is batting .296 but with a feeble .333 SLG. He’s still in the 90th percentile or better in a ton of key offensive metrics (including xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate and K rate), but Toronto needs more pop from its No. 3 hitter.

Trevor Story (SS): In his past 20 games, Story has a .321/.368/.506 slash line and eight stolen bases. He was bumped up to the No. 2 spot in Boston’s order five games ago and has scored a run in every game since.

Aroldis Chapman (RP): Chapman has been MLB’s best closer this season, so it’ll take more than a couple of so-so outings to alter his reputation. But he has allowed two runs and seven baserunners over his past five outings, which is why he’s featured here. Prior to that, Chapman had gone 17 consecutive appearances without allowing a hit or a run.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends

• Toronto has the 3rd-best run line record in MLB (87-69, 55.8%).

• Overs are 85-65-6 in Blue Jays games (1st in MLB).

• Overs are 42-35-1 when Boston is playing on the road (4th in MLB).

• The Jays are 50-25 at home (2nd in MLB).

• Toronto is 7-3 vs. Boston this year. In their past two series against each other, the average game total was 10.7 runs.

• Jeff Hoffman is 3-for-3 in save opportunities over his past 10 games, allowing just one run in that span.

• Alejandro Kirk is 5-for-37 (.135) with zero extra-base hits in his past 13 games.

Two playoff-bound teams from the National League meet on Monday night, as the San Diego Padres open a home series against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The pregame narrative: Technically, the Padres aren’t a lock for the postseason yet. But a win tonight would change that. Milwaukee clinched the NL Central title — and a first-round bye — on Sunday. Given that the stakes are much higher for the Padres, they’re favoured over Freddy Peralta and the Brewers.

Check out my Brewers vs. Padres SGP predictions for Sept. 22, featuring a prop bets on Fernando Tatis Jr. and Christian Yelich.

Brewers vs. Padres predictions

Parlay: Padres under 3.5 runs | Tatis under 1.5 bases | Yelich over 0.5 hits (+285)

Padres under 3.5 runs (-114): This could be a hangover game for the Brewers, who were popping bottles in St. Louis yesterday.

But one man I don’t expect to be hurting is Peralta, as he looks to put a bow on his strongest season yet.

The right-hander’s 2.65 ERA and 5.4 bWAR are the best of his eight-year career. He also leads the NL in wins (17), if you’re into that sort of thing.

And from August onward, Peralta has been the most dominant version of himself on the mound:

• 8 starts
• 1.43 ERA
• 12.5 K/9

In that span, Peralta has allowed one or zero runs seven times. His opponents’ average full-game total is 2.6 runs.

Back in June, Peralta held the Padres to one hit over 6.0 scoreless innings. Their lineup is just 8-for-64 (.125) with 24 strikeouts against him.

San Diego has also gone under a 3.5-run total in eight of its past 12 games.

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More SGP picks

Tatis under 1.5 total bases (-177): Tatis hasn’t been able to crack the code against Peralta yet, albeit in a small sample. Still, I want to fade the leadoff man in this matchup.

In his past meetings with Peralta, Tatis is 0-for-6 with five strikeouts and a 60.0% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That’s a lot of incorrect guesses from the three-time all-star.

This is as much a way to back Peralta as it is to fade Tatis, but the under on this prop has been hitting at a decent rate lately.

In his past 20 games, Tatis has gone under 1.5 bases 12 times.

Yelich over 0.5 hits (-186): We’ll need to see the lineup first to know if Yelich is even playing, as veterans sometimes get a recovery day following a playoff-clinching celebration.

Given that Yelich was off Sunday, though, I expect him to slot back in.

The designated hitter is 15-6 vs. this prop in his past 21 starts, batting .287 in that span. Not otherworldly, but pretty darn good.

He also has a solid history against Padres starter Nick Pivetta, batting 6-for-16 with two homers and two doubles.

Yelich is batting .296 since the start of August, and his .293 xBA indicates that that’s not a fluke.

Brewers vs. Padres predictions made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 09/22/2025.

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The stage is set for a Sunday Night Baseball matchup with major playoff implications.

The pregame narrative: Thanks to a pair of road wins to open this series, the Seattle Mariners have moved two games ahead of the Houston Astros in the AL West. Seattle is favoured to complete the sweep on Sunday night with Logan Gilbert on the mound.

Check out my Mariners vs. Astros picks, featuring prop bets on Josh Naylor and Jesus Sanchez.

Mariners vs. Astros picks

Best Bet: Sanchez under 0.5 hits (+108)

I’ll gladly fade Sanchez at plus money in a matchup that isn’t doing him many favours.

The left-hitting Sanchez is better against right-handed pitching, understandably, but he’s facing a righty with reverse splits.

Gilbert has been tough on everybody this year, but left-handed batters have it worse:

• LHBs vs. Gilbert: .195 BA, .581 OPS
• RHBs vs. Gilbert: .234 BA, .712 OPS

Among 101 pitchers with 120-plus innings of work, Gilbert ranks first in K/9 (12.3), fifth in xERA (2.91) and 15th in opponent BA (.212).

I don’t see this going well for Sanchez, who is hitless in nine of his past 12 starts. In that span, he’s batting 3-for-36 (.083).

If Gilbert keeps Sanchez hitless and the Mariners go to a lefty in the bullpen, there’s a decent chance the outfielder will be subbed out.

So he may not have a full game’s worth of opportunities, which only makes me more bullish on this prop.

Key stat: Gilbert has a .207 xBA (90th percentile), according to Baseball Savant.

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Best MLB pick

Naylor over 1.5 total bases (+120): Naylor has been exactly what the Mariners were looking for as they readied for a playoff push, and he’s swinging a particularly hot bat right now.

• The Mississauga, Ontario native has a .373/.411/.647 slash line since Sept. 6.

• He is 9-4 vs. his bases prop in that span, averaging 2.5 bases per start.

The left-hitting slugger does his best work against righties, so I’m hoping for big things against Houston right-hander Jason Alexander. Naylor has an .831 OPS vs. RHPs this season.

Look for Naylor to continue to slug from the heart of Seattle’s order.

Mariners vs. Astros picks made at 12:54 p.m. ET on 09/21/2025.

I’m targeting a pair of southpaws as part of Sunday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Ranger Suarez‘s strikeouts prop is set at 4.5, which seems modest relative to his output this season. Suarez should fare well against the Arizona Diamondbacks, while I expect Reds lefty Andrew Abbott to give his team some length vs. the Chicago Cubs.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 21, featuring a prediction on Brandon Nimmo.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Abbott over 16.5 outs (-105)

Abbott’s promising career has gotten better with each passing season, and I’m hoping he can put a bow on an impressive Year 3.

The 26-year-old has a sub-3.00 ERA through 27 starts, which includes three solid-or-better outings against the Cubs (today’s opponent):

• May 24: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K
• May 30: 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K
• Aug. 6: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K

Abbott is 3-0 vs. this prop bet when facing the Cubs in 2025, averaging 19.3 outs in those starts.

He isn’t always called upon to work deep, but it’s not like the Reds are treating him with kid gloves. He has thrown 95+ pitches in 16 of his 27 starts.

I was initially looking at Abbott’s strikeout prop, which sits at plus money to the over on 4.5 Ks. He has cashed that bet in seven consecutive starts but is just 1-2 on that line vs. Chicago.

The Cubs are a low-strikeout team, with the sixth-lowest K rate in MLB. Their ability to put the ball in play could help Abbott keep his pitch count in check.

Cincinnati still has plenty to play for, too, which I think works in Abbott’s favour.

The Reds are one game out of a wild-card spot. If Abbott is rolling, I wouldn’t expect him to get a quick hook — especially since the team’s setup man and closer both pitched in the first two games of this series.

Key stat: Abbott has held the Cubs’ active lineup to a .209 batting average and a sub-.400 SLG in 91 at-bats.

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Best MLB picks

Nimmo over 0.5 RBI (+138): Nimmo is a cleanup man hitting in front of three scorching hitters.

Over the past week, the trio of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso all have an OPS of .993 or above and a wRC+ of 163 or above.

If those guys can continue to find ways on base, I like Nimmo’s opportunity to bring someone home.

• Nimmo is 7-for-20 (.350) with a pair of home runs vs. Nationals starter Jake Irvin.

• Irvin has been getting shelled recently, coughing up 44 runs over 42.0 innings in his past nine starts.

• In three starts vs. the Mets this year, Irvin has allowed 25 baserunners and 11 runs in 18.1 IP.

Nimmo is 3-0 vs. this prop in Irvin’s three starts against the Mets. He’s also 5-4 vs. this prop in his past nine games overall.

Suarez over 4.5 Ks (-112): Suarez was chased early in his lone start against the Diamondbacks, but he still managed to strike out six batters over 3.2 innings.

Ideally, he can stick around for longer in today’s outing, and if so, I really like his chances to cash this bet.

• He’s averaging 6.0 Ks per start this year (145 strikeouts in 24 starts).

• Suarez has 5+ Ks in 18 of 24 outings.

• In three starts vs. the Diamondbacks since 2023, Suarez is 3-0 vs. this prop.

Suarez has collected 10+ Ks in three of his past six starts, so his ceiling as a strikeout generator is quite high. This really isn’t a significant total for him to clear.

MLB prop picks made at 10:45 a.m. ET on 09/21/2025.

The Toronto Blue Jays need a win today to avoid a three-game sweep in their final road series of the regular season.

The pregame narrative: After a pair of losses to the Kansas City Royals, the Jays are no longer in a very comfortable spot atop the American League standings. But with a two-game lead in the AL East and a three-game cushion for a bye, Toronto is still in pole position.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Royals for the Sept. 21 game at Kauffman Stadium, featuring prop predictions on Trey Yesavage and Mike Yastrzemski.

Blue Jays picks vs. Royals

Best bet: Under 9 runs (-110)

The Blue Jays have thrown their top pitching prospect, Trey Yesavage, right into the fire known as an MLB playoff race. He excelled in his first start, and I’m hoping for more of the same on Sunday.

After working a 3.22 ERA across four minor league levels this season, Yesavage took a five-inning no-decision in a 2-1 win last Monday over the Tampa Bay Rays.

If he continues his strong form today, great. But if not, the Blue Jays should have ample support behind him, with a bullpen that includes a pair of rested high-leverage relievers and a recently demoted Jose Berrios.

Toronto has the highest overs rate in MLB (84-65-6, 56.4%), per Team Rankings, but there are other factors to consider here:

• Most of Toronto’s high-scoring games come at Rogers Centre. On the road, the Blue Jays hit the over 52.6% of the time (10th in MLB).

• Kansas City has MLB’s highest unders rate at home (62.0%), as well as the fourth-highest unders rate overall (56.2%).

• The Blue Jays’ offence has a 72 wRC+ in the past two weeks, which ranks 25th in MLB. In this series, the Jays have just two runs on seven hits in 18 innings.

Michael Wacha starts for the Royals after a truly miserable outing on Sept. 16 against the blazing hot Seattle Mariners (2.2 IP, nine hits, seven runs). Before that, he’d been lights out for a while.

In a 10-start stretch from July 11 through Sept. 5, Wacha had a 2.79 ERA and a .224 opponent batting average. The average total in those games was 7.9 runs.

Key stat: In Wacha’s past 15 starts, this under is 10-5.

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Jays prop predictions

Yesavage over 4.5 Ks (-120): The only team with a strikeout rate lower than the Blue Jays since the all-star break is … the Royals. That makes the over on this strikeouts prop a more difficult side to argue for.

But Yesavage was so devastatingly good in his debut outing, and I believe the unfamiliarity between him and KC should work in the young right-hander’s favour.

• Over 5.0 IP last Monday vs. the Rays, Yesavage compiled nine strikeouts — a franchise record for an MLB debut.

• Yesavage had 19 whiffs against Tampa, and according to MLB.com’s research department, that tied for the fifth-most in an MLB debut since 2008 (i.e., the start of the pitch tracking era).

Toronto has an off-day on Monday, and Berrios is available in the bullpen now to provide length if needed. So the Jays won’t need to push Yesavage deep into this game.

But he shouldn’t need a huge workload to contend for this prop. After all, he cashed this in the third inning last time out.

Yastrzemski under 0.5 hits (-108): Simply put, Yastrzemski is a struggling hitter who doesn’t profile well against Yesavage’s pitch mix.

• The Royals outfielder is 7-for-56 (.125) in his past 18 games. He has gone hitless in 10 of 16 starts during that span.

• Yesavage’s two secondary pitches are splitters and sliders. Against RHPs throwing those pitches, Yastrzemski is 3-for-17 (.176).

Yastrzemski is a platoon player as it is, with aggressive righty/lefty splits (.247 BA vs. righties, .138 BA vs. lefties).

He’ll likely be lifted from the game if the Blue Jays bring in a lefty reliever, which means he should have less than a full game’s worth of opportunities.

Blue Jays picks made at 8:40 a.m. ET on 09/21/2025.

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