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MLB Game 1 wild-card schedule and betting odds: Matchups for start of postseason Sept. 30

It’s not quite October yet, but MLB postseason action has arrived.

The latest: The wild-card round begins on Tuesday with a four-pack of games starting at 1:08 p.m. ET. These are best-of-three series, which means some teams will be sent home in a blink.

Check out the latest MLB wild-card schedule and odds for the Game 1 matchups.

MLB wild-card schedule notes

For most of the season, the Detroit Tigers led the AL Central and were positioned to clinch a bye. But their 11-game division lead as of Sept. 4 whittled away to nothing in the closing weeks, thanks in part to an 87 wRC+ in the final month (dead last among playoff teams).

The Cleveland Guardians helped their cause by going 5-1 vs. Detroit in the final two weeks of the season to steal the division title. Game 1 will feel like a must-win for the Tigers with reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal on the mound.

The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs split their matchups this season, 3-3. Both teams went 2-1 at home against each other. San Diego posted a 7-1 record down the stretch and will start Nick Pivetta, who has a 2.38 ERA in 15 starts since July.

The Red Sox/Yankees rivalry is nearly as old as baseball itself, and it’ll add another postseason chapter this week. Game 1 features a pair of new faces in the rivalry, as Garrett Crochet starts opposite Max Fried.

Crochet’s Red Sox went 4-0 vs. the Yankees in his first year with the club. As for Fried, he posted a 1.96 ERA in three starts vs. Boston but saw extremely limited run support. New York is 8-1 in Fried’s past nine starts overall, though.

Which team is a more surprising entrant to the wild-card round: the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers, or a Cincinnati Reds squad that was playing sub-.500 baseball as recently as Sept. 16?

This is easily the most lopsided wild-card series on paper, but anything can happen in a span of three games. The Reds went 8-3 down the stretch to steal a playoff spot, but they were just 1-5 vs. the Dodgers during the regular season.

Game 1 wild-card matchups: Sept. 30

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Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

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San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs

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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

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Best MLB prop bets Sept. 28: Back Brady Singer, Alonso and Langeliers in regular-season finale

season, and I’ve got three picks for the action.

Today’s MLB props narrative: It’s win-and-in for the Cincinnati Reds, who start Brady Singer against the NL-best Milwaukee Brewers. I expect Singer to clear his outs total against a team with nothing to play for.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 28, featuring picks on Pete Alonso and Shea Langeliers.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Singer over 16.5 outs (-130)

On the surface, this line seems light.

Singer needs to reach 5.2 IP for this wager to cash. He’s done that in eight of his last 10 starts.

The righty has pitched into the sixth inning in eight straight starts, going 7-1 against this line with a 2.49 ERA.

Of course, there are layers to this bet with a playoff spot on the line. Given the importance, Cincinnati will likely have Singer on a shorter leash.

But the Reds did use four relievers yesterday, with three of them having pitched on Friday.

Also, I’m skeptical Milwaukee will trot out its best possible lineup in this game. The Brewers have already clinched the NL’s top seed and will likely give their top dogs a rest ahead of the playoffs.

At the time of writing, the Brewers haven’t released their official lineup. But even if they all play, I think Singer can have a solid day.

Key stat: Milwaukee has lost six of its last eight games while averaging 2.12 runs. In that span, the Brewers rank 28th in wRC+ (63).

Best MLB picks

Alonso over 1.5 bases (+115): After an epic late-season collapse, the New York Mets need a win and a Reds loss to clinch their playoff spot.

It’s been an embarrassing run, but Alonso has done everything possible in September to keep New York afloat.

.295/.349/.589 slash line
Seven HR
16 RBI

The Polar Bear has cleared this line in three straight games with four XBH in that span.

He went 2-for-4 last night with a home run and a double, and should stay hot against Miami Marlins righty Edward Cabrera.

Alonso is slugging .569 vs. RHP and is 5-for-17 against Cabrera with three HR.

Langeliers over 1.5 total bases (+100): Langeliers is about to put a bow on a monster season.

The Athletics’ catcher has put up career-highs in all three slash categories (.277/.325/.536), home runs (31), doubles (32) and bWAR (3.9).

And he’s absolutely destroyed lefties to the tune of a .367/.374/.667 slash line.

Langeliers has only been walked twice by southpaws all season, while mashing the baseball. That’s a dream for any total base bettor.

Today, he faces Kansas City Royals lefty Cole Ragans.

Langeliers is 0-for-10 against Ragans, but hasn’t seen him this year, which also happens to be one of the worst seasons of the pitcher’s career (5.02 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).

MLB prop picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025

Rays vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 28: Back George Springer with AL East title on the line

The Toronto Blue Jays can clinch the AL East on Sunday in their regular-season finale against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The pregame narrative: Toronto controls its own destiny with one game to play. A win means the division and a first-round bye. The Jays can also clinch with a New York Yankees loss, but Kevin Gausman and Co. are favoured, and will want to take matters into their own hands.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays for Sept. 28, featuring a prop bet on George Springer.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best bet: Under 4.5 runs F5 innings (-125)

Hats off to John Schneider for ensuring Gausman got the ball today.

Toronto’s ace has been on another level since the all-star break, and he should put the team in a good position to win this game.

Gausman has a 2.49 ERA and 2.80 FIP in 12 starts since the all-star break.

In that span, he has a 26% K rate and a .186 opponent batting average.

The righty faced the Rays on Sept. 17 and held them to one run over 6.1 IP.

Gausman hasn’t gotten a ton of run support lately, though, and Toronto’s offence has mostly looked rudderless down the stretch.

The group has come alive over the last three games, but I’m skeptical it will be able to hit lefty Ian Seymour today.

Seymour began the season as a reliever and has a 2.08 ERA across six outings since his first start on Aug. 25. One of those was against the Jays on Sept. 17, where he threw 7.0 shutout innings in a 2-1 victory.

The Jays will want to play this game as a chess match, and I anticipate that’ll mean another low-scoring affair.

Key stat: Four of Gausman’s last five starts have gone under this number.

Jays prop predictions

Springer over 1.5 bases (-108): Springer is one Blue Jay I trust to come through in the clutch.

The veteran outfielder has had a career year, posting a .306/.395/.553 slash line, and can put a bow on it with a strong performance today.

Springer is slugging .628 this month and .578 at home. He actually runs reverse splits, meaning he hits righties better than lefties, but did go 1-for-3 off Seymour earlier this month.

And batting out of the leadoff spot, he’ll have the best chance of clearing this line from a volume standpoint.

Springer leads MLB in wRC+ (204) since the all-star break.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:32 a.m. ET on 09/28/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 28: Back Brady Singer, Alonso and Langeliers in regular-season finale

Sunday marks the final day of MLB’s regular season, and I’ve got three picks for the action.

Today’s MLB props narrative: It’s win-and-in for the Cincinnati Reds, who start Brady Singer against the NL-best Milwaukee Brewers. I expect Singer to clear his outs total against a team with nothing to play for.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 28, featuring picks on Pete Alonso and Shea Langeliers.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Singer over 16.5 outs (-107)

On the surface, this line seems light.

Singer needs to reach 5.2 IP for this wager to cash. He’s done that in eight of his last 10 starts.

The righty has pitched into the sixth inning in eight straight starts, going 7-1 against this line with a 2.49 ERA.

Of course, there are layers to this bet with a playoff spot on the line. Given the importance, Cincinnati will likely have Singer on a shorter leash.

But the Reds did use four relievers yesterday, with three of them having pitched on Friday.

Also, I’m skeptical Milwaukee will trot out its best possible lineup in this game. The Brewers have already clinched the NL’s top seed and will likely give their top dogs a rest ahead of the playoffs.

At the time of writing, the Brewers haven’t released their official lineup. But even if they all play, I think Singer can have a solid day.

Key stat: Milwaukee has lost six of its last eight games while averaging 2.12 runs. In that span, the Brewers rank 28th in wRC+ (63).

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Best MLB picks

Alonso over 1.5 bases (+112): After an epic late-season collapse, the New York Mets need a win and a Reds loss to clinch their playoff spot.

It’s been an embarrassing run, but Alonso has done everything possible in September to keep New York afloat.

.295/.349/.589 slash line
Seven HR
16 RBI

The Polar Bear has cleared this line in three straight games with four XBH in that span.

He went 2-for-4 last night with a home run and a double, and should stay hot against Miami Marlins righty Edward Cabrera.

Alonso is slugging .569 vs. RHP and is 5-for-17 against Cabrera with three HR.

Langeliers over 1.5 total bases (+110): Langeliers is about to put a bow on a monster season.

The Athletics’ catcher has put up career-highs in all three slash categories (.277/.325/.536), home runs (31), doubles (32) and bWAR (3.9).

And he’s absolutely destroyed lefties to the tune of a .367/.374/.667 slash line.

Langeliers has only been walked twice by southpaws all season, while mashing the baseball. That’s a dream for any total base bettor.

Today, he faces Kansas City Royals lefty Cole Ragans.

Langeliers is 0-for-10 against Ragans, but hasn’t seen him this year, which also happens to be one of the worst seasons of the pitcher’s career (5.02 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).

MLB prop picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025.

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Rays vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 28: Back George Springer with AL East title on the line

The Toronto Blue Jays can clinch the AL East on Sunday in their regular-season finale against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The pregame narrative: Toronto controls its own destiny with one game to play. A win means the division and a first-round bye. The Jays can also clinch with a New York Yankees loss, but Kevin Gausman and Co. are favoured, and will want to take matters into their own hands.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays for Sept. 28, featuring a prop bet on George Springer.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best bet: Under 4.5 runs F5 innings (-130)

Hats off to John Schneider for ensuring Gausman got the ball today.

Toronto’s ace has been on another level since the all-star break, and he should put the team in a good position to win this game.

Gausman has a 2.49 ERA and 2.80 FIP in 12 starts since the all-star break.

In that span, he has a 26% K rate and a .186 opponent batting average.

The righty faced the Rays on Sept. 17 and held them to one run over 6.1 IP.

Gausman hasn’t gotten a ton of run support lately, though, and Toronto’s offence has mostly looked rudderless down the stretch.

The group has come alive over the last three games, but I’m skeptical it will be able to hit lefty Ian Seymour today.

Seymour began the season as a reliever and has a 2.08 ERA across six outings since his first start on Aug. 25. One of those was against the Jays on Sept. 17, where he threw 7.0 shutout innings in a 2-1 victory.

The Jays will want to play this game as a chess match, and I anticipate that’ll mean another low-scoring affair.

Key stat: Four of Gausman’s last five starts have gone under this number.

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Jays prop predictions

Springer over 1.5 bases (-103): Springer is one Blue Jay I trust to come through in the clutch.

The veteran outfielder has had a career year, posting a .306/.395/.553 slash line, and can put a bow on it with a strong performance today.

Springer is slugging .628 this month and .578 at home. He actually runs reverse splits, meaning he hits righties better than lefties, but did go 1-for-3 off Seymour earlier this month.

And batting out of the leadoff spot, he’ll have the best chance of clearing this line from a volume standpoint.

Springer leads MLB in wRC+ (204) since the all-star break.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:32 a.m. ET on 09/28/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 27: Back Ketel Marte, Nick Kurtz to do damage on Saturday

The AL Rookie of the Year in waiting, Nick Kurtz, headlines Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Kurtz has destroyed right-handed pitching all season, and he faces a struggling one at the hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. I’m betting on him to hit for power in this plus matchup.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 27, featuring Ketel Marte and Eury Perez.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Kurtz over 1.5 total bases (-118)

Kurtz has two games remaining to put a bow on his historic rookie campaign.

So far, the 22-year-old has belted 35 home runs and ranks third in MLB in OPS (1.001). The only players ahead of him? Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

The vast majority of that damage has been inflicted against RHPs.

.338/.340/.719 slash line
27 of 35 HRs
22 of 26 doubles

Kurtz was held hitless last night, but went 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs on Thursday.

He should have a good chance of rebounding against Kansas City Royals righty, Michael Wacha.

Wacha has a 7.88 ERA across his last five starts, ceding 34 hits in 24.0 IP. He’s only walked five batters in that span with a 16% K rate, which is right in line with his season-long profile (14th-percentile K rate, 83rd-percentile BB rate).

Kurtz should get something to hit at Sutter Health Park, the second-best offensive environment in MLB, per Baseball Savant’s park factors data.

Key stat: Kurtz leads MLB in wRC+ against RHPs (212).

Best MLB picks

Marte over 1.5 total bases (+120): The Arizona Diamondbacks’ current three-game losing streak ended their postseason chances, but Marte was solid in those outings.

5-for-13
2 doubles, 1 HR
3-0 vs. this prop

And dating back to Sept. 16, he’s posted a .350/.381/.625 slash line with eight extra-base hits and just one walk.

That’s what I like to see when targeting a bases prop. Tonight, he’ll go up against San Diego’s Michael King, which isn’t an easy assignment.

But King is making just his fourth start since returning from the injured list and will likely be on a pitch count after throwing no more than 70 pitches since May.

Marte is also 2-for-6 against King.

Perez under 14.5 outs (+115): There’s a world where the New York Mets are eliminated from the postseason tonight (with a loss, plus a Cincinnati Reds win).

I don’t see that happening, though.

Perez is on the bump for the opposing Miami Marlins, and he’s gotten shelled by New York.

The Mets are batting .471 off him in 23 combined plate appearances. He lasted just 0.2 innings agianst them on Aug. 29, giving up five earned runs with zero strikeouts.

The start after that, Perez coughed up seven ER in 4.0 IP against the Washington Nationals.

The righty has gone under this mark in four of his last seven outings.

MLB prop picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025.

Dodgers vs. Mariners SGP predictions Sept. 27: Look for Naylor to stay hot, fade Ohtani vs. Gilbert

A pair of division winners do battle in the Pacific Northwest tonight, as the Seattle Mariners host the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The pregame narrative: Both teams have already locked in their playoff seedings, so there’s nothing of note to play for. It’s still a marquee matchup, though, with Tyler Glasnow and Logan Gilbert on the mound.

Check out these Dodgers vs. Mariners SGP predictions for Sept. 27, featuring Shohei Ohtani and Josh Naylor.

Dodgers vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Ohtani over 1.5 total bases | Naylor over 0.5 hits | Under 8.5 runs (+295)

Ohtani under 1.5 total bases (-134): I hate betting against Ohtani, but this is a playable number with Logan Gilbert on the mound.

Ohtani walks a lot and strikes out a lot, and both of those things are good for this under.

Against Gilbert, Ohtani is 4-for-15 (.267) with seven strikeouts and five walks.

Seattle’s right-hander has 37 plate appearances against the rest of the Dodgers lineup and hasn’t walked anyone. He tries to be avoidant around Ohtani, and I totally understand that.

Ohtani is waltzing to his fourth MVP award in five seasons. He’s averaging 2.4 total bases per game.

One titanic swing can ruin this, but I’m riding with the under based on a history against Gilbert that works in my favour.

Also, Ohtani has gone under 1.5 bases in 18 of his past 32 games.

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MLB SGP legs

Naylor over 0.5 hits (-195): As a standalone wager, I’d be looking hard at Naylor over 1.5 bases for tonight. He’s on a serious heater, and the +150 price point jumps off the page.

For this SGP, though, I’ll go with the safer route of one hit. Naylor is batting .364 this month and is 18-3 vs. this prop.

He’s also on a 12-game hit streak, which has been a thing of beauty:

19-for-44 (.432)
10.4 K%
4.2 BB%

Naylor has a 90th-percentile strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant, so his low K% during this streak isn’t much of a surprise. The low walk rate is nice to see, too, since walks don’t help with this prop.

Against Glasnow, Naylor is 1-for-3 in his career.

Under 8.5 runs (-180): Both teams have potent offences, but I like this under with two stellar pitchers on the mound.

Both Glasnow and Gilbert have sub-3.50 ERAs and sub-3.90 FIPs.

This under is 8-4 in Gilbert’s 12 starts since the all-star break.

This under is 10-7 in Glasnow’s starts this season (and three of the overs finished with exactly nine runs).

The Dodgers average 5.1 runs per game, which is the second-highest total in MLB, but they tend to play low-scoring games on the road. Unders are 43-33-1 in L.A.’s road games this season.

Last night’s series opener finished as a 3-2 win for the Dodgers.

Dodgers vs. Mariners predictions made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025.

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Best MLB prop bets Sept. 27: Back Ketel Marte, Nick Kurtz to do damage on Saturday

The AL Rookie of the Year in waiting, Nick Kurtz, headlines Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Kurtz has destroyed right-handed pitching all season, and he faces a struggling one at the hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. I’m betting on him to hit for power in this plus matchup.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 27, featuring Ketel Marte and Eury Perez.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Kurtz over 1.5 total bases (-113)

Kurtz has two games remaining to put a bow on his historic rookie campaign.

So far, the 22-year-old has belted 35 home runs and ranks third in MLB in OPS (1.001). The only players ahead of him? Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

The vast majority of that damage has been inflicted against RHPs.

.338/.340/.719 slash line
27 of 35 HRs
22 of 26 doubles

Kurtz was held hitless last night, but went 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs on Thursday.

He should have a good chance of rebounding against Kansas City Royals righty, Michael Wacha.

Wacha has a 7.88 ERA across his last five starts, ceding 34 hits in 24.0 IP. He’s only walked five batters in that span with a 16% K rate, which is right in line with his season-long profile (14th-percentile K rate, 83rd-percentile BB rate).

Kurtz should get something to hit at Sutter Health Park, the second-best offensive environment in MLB, per Baseball Savant’s park factors data.

Key stat: Kurtz leads MLB in wRC+ against RHPs (212).

Best MLB picks

Marte over 1.5 total bases (+116): The Arizona Diamondbacks’ current three-game losing streak ended their postseason chances, but Marte was solid in those outings.

5-for-13
2 doubles, 1 HR
3-0 vs. this prop

And dating back to Sept. 16, he’s posted a .350/.381/.625 slash line with eight extra-base hits and just one walk.

That’s what I like to see when targeting a bases prop. Tonight, he’ll go up against San Diego’s Michael King, which isn’t an easy assignment.

But King is making just his fourth start since returning from the injured list and will likely be on a pitch count after throwing no more than 70 pitches since May.

Marte is also 2-for-6 against King.

Perez under 14.5 outs (+125): There’s a world where the New York Mets are eliminated from the postseason tonight (with a loss, plus a Cincinnati Reds win).

I don’t see that happening, though.

Perez is on the bump for the opposing Miami Marlins, and he’s gotten shelled by New York.

The Mets are batting .471 off him in 23 combined plate appearances. He lasted just 0.2 innings agianst them on Aug. 29, giving up five earned runs with zero strikeouts.

The start after that, Perez coughed up seven ER in 4.0 IP against the Washington Nationals.

The righty has gone under this mark in four of his last seven outings.

MLB prop picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025.

Rays vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 27: Fade Guerrero, bet on Yesavage to clear his Ks prop

Still clinging to the slightest of advantages in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday in the penultimate game of the regular season.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won on Friday, but the New York Yankees held serve in their matchup elsewhere, meaning these teams are separated only by a tiebreaker. Trey Yesavage, who starts today for the Jays, carved up Tampa Bay’s lineup earlier this month in his MLB debut.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays for Sept. 27, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Yandy Diaz.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best bet: Diaz over 0.5 runs (+125)

Yesavage posted a 52.8% whiff rate when he faced the Rays the first time around, which was the highest mark for any Jays starter since that stat was first tracked in 2009 (according to Sportsnet).

But you know who wasn’t fooled against the big right-hander? Diaz.

The 1B/DH went 2-for-2 with a double and a walk against Yesavage. He reached base all three times without a single swing-and-miss.

Diaz is having a heck of a month for Tampa Bay, so we’re also catching him at a good time:

22 games
16 runs
.397 BA
1.059 OPS
16.1 BB%
10.8 K%

Diaz is typically around league average in terms of walk rate, but he’s been more patient this month. That’s part of the reason I prefer the over on his runs prop rather than total bases (+102).

According to Baseball Savant, Diaz ranks in the 94th percentile in xBA (.296) and hard-hit rate (52.3%).

Key stat: Diaz has scored a run in 15 of his past 29 games.

Jays prop predictions

Yesavage over 4.5 Ks (-106): The Rays were seeing Yesavage for the first time when he debuted on Sept. 15, and he left them guessing time after time.

Toronto’s rookie right-hander finished with nine strikeouts over 5.0 innings of one-run ball. That’s how you justify a late-season call-up to a contending club.

Last time out, Yesavage only had two strikeouts over 4.0 innings. But that was against the Royals, who have the second-lowest K rate in the majors at 18.3% (Tampa has the ninth-highest K rate, 23.0%).

I wouldn’t bank on Yesavage posting nine strikeouts again today, but getting just over halfway there should be doable. Remember, he had the Rays in knots last time.

On Sept. 15, Yesavage garnered 19 whiffs, which was the second-highest total for a Blue Jays starter all season.

Guerrero under 1.5 total bases (-163): I faded Guerrero on this market — at this exact price — yesterday. And I don’t mind running it back based on how little power he’s displayed in recent weeks.

Including yesterday, here’s what Guerrero has done offensively since Sept. 10:

.217 BA
.233 SLG
1 extra-base hit
Under 1.5 bases in 13 of 16 games

It’s been more than three weeks since Vladdy went yard. He still has a 100th-percentile xBA (.317), but the power numbers aren’t following right now.

Guerrero also takes a lot of free passes, with an 87th-percentile walk rate. I’d consider fading him until further notice.

Blue Jays picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025.

Rays vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 27: Fade Guerrero, bet on Yesavage to clear his Ks prop

Still clinging to the slightest of advantages in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday in the penultimate game of the regular season.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won on Friday, but the New York Yankees held serve in their matchup elsewhere, meaning these teams are separated only by a tiebreaker. Trey Yesavage, who starts today for the Jays, carved up Tampa Bay’s lineup earlier this month in his MLB debut.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays for Sept. 27, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Yandy Diaz.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best bet: Diaz over 0.5 runs (+110)

Yesavage posted a 52.8% whiff rate when he faced the Rays the first time around, which was the highest mark for any Jays starter since that stat was first tracked in 2009 (according to Sportsnet).

But you know who wasn’t fooled against the big right-hander? Diaz.

The 1B/DH went 2-for-2 with a double and a walk against Yesavage. He reached base all three times without a single swing-and-miss.

Diaz is having a heck of a month for Tampa Bay, so we’re also catching him at a good time:

22 games
16 runs
.397 BA
1.059 OPS
16.1 BB%
10.8 K%

Diaz is typically around league average in terms of walk rate, but he’s been more patient this month. That’s part of the reason I prefer the over on his runs prop rather than total bases (+102).

According to Baseball Savant, Diaz ranks in the 94th percentile in xBA (.296) and hard-hit rate (52.3%).

Key stat: Diaz has scored a run in 15 of his past 29 games.

Embed: #118430

Jays prop predictions

Yesavage over 4.5 Ks (-124): The Rays were seeing Yesavage for the first time when he debuted on Sept. 15, and he left them guessing time after time.

Toronto’s rookie right-hander finished with nine strikeouts over 5.0 innings of one-run ball. That’s how you justify a late-season call-up to a contending club.

Last time out, Yesavage only had two strikeouts over 4.0 innings. But that was against the Royals, who have the second-lowest K rate in the majors at 18.3% (Tampa has the ninth-highest K rate, 23.0%).

I wouldn’t bank on Yesavage posting nine strikeouts again today, but getting just over halfway there should be doable. Remember, he had the Rays in knots last time.

On Sept. 15, Yesavage garnered 19 whiffs, which was the second-highest total for a Blue Jays starter all season.

Guerrero under 1.5 total bases (-129): I faded Guerrero on this market — at this exact price — yesterday. And I don’t mind running it back based on how little power he’s displayed in recent weeks.

Including yesterday, here’s what Guerrero has done offensively since Sept. 10:

.217 BA
.233 SLG
1 extra-base hit
Under 1.5 bases in 13 of 16 games

It’s been more than three weeks since Vladdy went yard. He still has a 100th-percentile xBA (.317), but the power numbers aren’t following right now.

Guerrero also takes a lot of free passes, with an 87th-percentile walk rate. I’d consider fading him until further notice.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025.