Category: MLB

Dodgers vs. Phillies Game 3 NLDS SGP predictions: Back Mookie Betts, Alec Bohm in +320 wager

Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions

The Los Angeles Dodgers can punch their NLCS ticket on Wednesday when they host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 of the divisional series.

The pregame narrative: After picking up a pair of wins in Philadelphia, the Dodgers are favoured to complete the sweep tonight behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Phillies turn to long-time stud Aaron Nola in this do-or-die matchup.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions for Oct. 8, featuring prop bets on Mookie Betts and Alec Bohm.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions

Parlay: Phillies +3.5 | Bohm to record a hit | Betts over 1.5 bases (+320)

Phillies +3.5 (-480): I don’t expect the 96-win Phillies to roll over tonight.

Philadelphia went 44-37 on the run line this year as visitors, with a +0.4 average margin of victory. It has covered this huge number in seven of eight games against L.A., including both this series.

Yamamoto is an elite arm who will likely keep scoring down, but I think Philly can hold serve.

Nola hasn’t had a great season by any means, but has held this Dodgers lineup to a collective .220 batting average over a 262 plate appearance sample size.

And it’s expected Ranger Suarez (3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) will be available out of the pen if things get dicey.

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MLB SGP legs

Bohm to record a hit (-175): Bohm is a solid candidate to get after Yamamoto.

The third baseman is just 1-for-6 in this series, but is coming off a scorching September where he slashed .345/.371/.534.

He is an elite contact hitter, ranking in the 80th percentile or higher in xBA (.284), whiff rate (14.6%) and K rate (16.3%). Pair that with a 20th percentile walk rate (5.3%) and you’ve got a great recipe for success.

Bohm is 0-for-3 against Yamamoto but has never struck out, and never whiffed on a pitch.

That gives me confidence he’ll put the ball in play and come through with a hit.

Betts over 1.5 bases (+108): Adding Betts to clear this total more than triples the SGPs value from -125 to +320. That’s all due to the negative correlation between him performing and Philly covering +3.5.

I already explained why I think Philadelphia can comfortably cover that number, and will let Betts’ stats speak for themselves:

  • In the playoffs: .389/.421/.556, three XBH
  • In September: .299/.343/.557, 12 XBH
  • vs. Nola: 9-for-23 (.391), one double, two HR

Betts is red-hot, facing a pitcher he’s dominated before, and has protection batting behind Shohei Ohtani. I love the value here.

Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions as of 10:30 a.m. on 10/08/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 4 ALDS picks: Bet on Judge and Varsho, fade Schlittler in the Bronx

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks

The Toronto Blue Jays have another crack at eliminating the New York Yankees from the ALDS when they face off in the Bronx on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Did the series just flip on Aaron Judge’s bat, or can Toronto push through the adversity to clinch an ALCS spot? The odds suggest we’ll see a winner-take-all Game 5 on Friday. Toronto is an underdog tonight as it turns to its bullpen against New York’s Cam Schlittler, who is fresh off a heroic wild-card effort.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks for Game 4 in the Bronx, featuring prop recommendations on Schlittler, Judge, and Daulton Varsho.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks

Best bet: Jays F5 innings tie no bet (+125)

It’s time to see what Toronto is made of after blowing a 6-1 early lead yesterday.

John Schneider used six bullpen arms in the loss, but each of them will be ready to go today. Louis Varland, who gave up the collosoal game-tying HR to Judge, will start.

I can’t blame Varland for that piece of world-class hitting (more on Judge later), and expect him to shove. The fireballing righty had given up just one run in nine prior appearances while striking out 12.

But this pick is more about Toronto’s offence and Schlittler.

The Jays’ bats have been red-hot to start this series, scoring a combined 14 runs in the first five innings. Overall, it averaged the eighth-most F5 runs in MLB this season.

Schlittler is fresh off throwing eight scoreless innings against the Red Sox with 12 Ks. But is that because he’s really good, or because Boston is really mediocre? Probably a bit of both.

All I know is that Toronto has roughed him up twice this year:

  • Sept. 5: 1.2 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 R
  • July 22: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 2 R

In those two outings, the Jays hit a combined .435 off him with as many walks as strikeouts (four).

The righty has command issues, and Toronto is one of the best teams in the majors at making opponents work deep into counts.

I think the Jays can take an early lead in Game 4.

Key stat: Toronto is 6-1-1 against this line in its last eight games.

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MLB postseason predictions

Judge over 1.5 bases (-117): Judge took a 100 mph fastball on the hands and belted it off the foul pole last night. It was one of the most clutch hits you’ll ever see.

In the postseason, he’s batting an otherworldly .500/.577/.727 and is 5-1 against this line.

A lot of those hits came in low-leverage situations, but Judge showed up in the bright lights yesterday, and I have to believe he’ll keep things rolling.

Back the AL’s total base leader to stay hot.

Schlittler under 4.5 Ks (+105): Fading Schlittler might seem scary. After all, the rookie has cleared this mark in almost every start of his young MLB career, going 12-3 against this line.

But two of the outliers came against the Blue Jays, and I think Toronto gives him more trouble tonight.

  • Schlittler has a 14.3% K rate against the Jays and a 27.6% K rate overall.
  • Toronto has the lowest K rate in the majors, and held two strong swing-and-miss arms — Max Fried and Carlos Rodon — well below this number.
  • Those southpaws combined for three Ks in 5.1 IP while giving up 13 runs.

New York would love to get another eight-inning gem from Schlittler, but I just don’t see that happening. Aaron Boone will be ready to use his bullpen at the first sign of real stress after how well it performed last night.

Blue Jays best bet

Varsho over 0.5 hits (-122): Bettors won’t have to worry about Varsho being yanked for a platoon advantage later in the game, because the centre fielder’s gold glove is his greatest asset.

But let’s talk about his hitting for a second.

Varsho is 7-for-12 this series and is now batting .419 over his last eight games. In that span, he is 7-1 against this line.

The stocky outfielder is seeing the ball well right now and recorded a hit against Schlittler on Sept. 5.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks made at 8:45 a.m. on 10/08/2025.

Mariners vs. Tigers Game 3 ALDS SGP predictions: Fade offence, look for Gilbert to rack up strikeouts

Mariners vs. Tigers predictions

Either the Detroit Tigers or the Seattle Mariners will be on the verge of advancing to the ALCS following Tuesday’s Game 3 matchup in the Motor City.

The pregame narrative: The Tigers and Mariners split the first two games out west, turning this into effectively a best-of-three series. Logan Gilbert has racked up a ton of strikeouts against Detroit this season, and he’ll try to keep that rolling today.

Check out my Mariners vs. Tigers predictions for ALDS Game 3, featuring prop bets on Gilbert and Zach McKinstry.

Mariners vs. Tigers predictions

Parlay: McKinstry under 0.5 hits | Under 8.5 runs | Gilbert over 5.5 Ks (+330)

McKinstry under 0.5 hits (+128): McKinstry was an all-star this year for the first time, but he really took his foot off the gas in the second half.

  • Pre-all-star: .285/.364/.472 slash line, hitless in 28 of 80 starts (35.0%)
  • Post-all-star (56 games): .213/.278/.378 slash line, hitless in 23 of 48 starts (47.9%)

For a guy who entered 2025 with a career 77 OPS+, this seems like a classic regression to the mean.

McKinstry ranks in the 24th percentile or worse in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, xSLG and average exit velocity. He went 0-for-2 with a strikeout and a walk when he last faced Gilbert (July 13).

So far in the postseason, McKinstry is 1-for-16 (.063) with eight strikeouts.

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MLB SGP legs

Under 8.5 runs (-155): Toronto scored more runs in Game 2 of its ALDS series (13) than Seattle has in its last five games combined (11). Runs have been at a premium for the Mariners, to say the least.

But the Tigers have been worse.

Detroit has a .186/.289/.256 slash line through five playoff games, with just eight extra-base hits as a team. The Tigers, frankly, have been a tough watch.

  • This under is 4-1 in Detroit’s five playoff games so far, including both matchups in this series against Seattle.
  • The average total in the Tigers’ postseason games is 5.8 runs.

Logan Gilbert has a 2.52 ERA and an 11.0 K/9 rate over his past seven starts, while Jack Flaherty has posted a 34.5 K% vs. the Mariners’ active lineup.

Both pitchers should be able to carve.

Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts (-220): I’ve got more to say about Gilbert, who’s been among the very best strikeout pitchers when healthy this season.

  • Gilbert didn’t throw quite enough innings to be a qualified pitcher, but among 95 guys with 130+ innings he led the way with an 11.9 K/9.
  • He averaged 6.9 Ks per start this season and went 19-6 vs. this prop.
  • Gilbert started twice against the Tigers and racked up 19 Ks over just 10.1 innings.

Detroit has been striking out a ton in the postseason, posting a 29.6 K%. That’s up from its 23.9 K% during the regular season, which was fourth-highest in MLB.

Mariners vs. Tigers picks as of 11:16 a.m. on 10/07/2025.

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Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 3 ALDS SGP predictions: Bet on Toronto to advance, Guerrero to stay hot in New York

Blue Jays predictions

After a pair of dominant home victories, the Toronto Blue Jays can close out their ALDS matchup on the road on Tuesday against the New York Yankees.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is 9-3 vs. New York since June, and now the team sits one win away from its first ALCS berth since 2016. The Jays collected 29 hits in the first two games of this series, and they’ll look to keep the offence rolling against Carlos Rodon.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions for ALDS Game 3, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Aaron Judge.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions

Parlay: Blue Jays ML | Guerrero to record a hit | Judge under 0.5 RBI (+290)

Blue Jays ML (+135): At first, it seemed a bit strange that the Blue Jays would push back Shane Bieber and roll with the inexperienced Trey Yesavage for Game 2.

But in hindsight, it makes perfect sense — and it puts Toronto in position to win this series tonight.

After sheltering Yesavage a bit with a start at home, Toronto turns to Bieber, an eight-year vet and Cy Young winner, in a hostile road environment.

Bieber has really encouraging numbers against the Yankees’ active lineup in 55 plate appearances:

  • .154 BA
  • .288 SLG
  • 32.7 K%
  • 5.5 BB%

In the 2022 ALDS, Bieber tossed 5.2 innings of two-run ball at Yankee Stadium to help guide the Cleveland Guardians to victory.

The Jays are 10-5 vs. New York this year, and they’ve won both matchups with Carlos Rodon on the mound. Their 111 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers ranked fourth in MLB during the regular season.

After outscoring the Yankees 23-8 in the first two games of the series, I think the Jays will get it done tonight.

MLB SGP legs

Guerrero to record a hit (-264): I’m certainly comfortable playing Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+128) as a standalone, but in this SGP I’ll steer toward a safer option.

Guerrero has been electric so far in this series, going 6-for-9 with two home runs and one seismic bat flip.

He also has awesome numbers against Rodon: 10-for-17 (.588) with a home run, three doubles and four walks.

The five-time all-star underwhelmed in his first season after inking a $500 million extension. But he’s having a moment right now, and Yankee Stadium is a stage he’s performed well on many times before.

Since 2023, Guerrero has a .344/.417/.734 slash line in 17 games in the Bronx.

Judge under 0.5 RBI (-200): Judge has dreadful career numbers vs. Bieber, and his overall postseason output is not what you’d expect from a multi-time MVP.

It can still be scary to fade his total bases prop, though, so I think this is a good way to bet an under for the towering outfielder.

  • Judge is batting in the No. 2 spot, which makes him a logical pitch-around candidate and means he likely won’t have a lot of basepath traffic in front of him.
  • In his career vs. Bieber, Judge is 1-for-13 with eight Ks and a 50.0% whiff rate.
  • Since the 2022 postseason, Judge is batting .214 and has gone under this RBI prop in 19 of 28 games.

Blue Jays picks as of 10:06 a.m. on 10/07/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 3 ALDS SGP predictions: Bet on Toronto to advance, Guerrero to stay hot in New York

Blue Jays predictions

After a pair of dominant home victories, the Toronto Blue Jays can close out their ALDS matchup on the road on Tuesday against the New York Yankees.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is 9-3 vs. New York since June, and now the team sits one win away from its first ALCS berth since 2016. The Jays collected 29 hits in the first two games of this series, and they’ll look to keep the offence rolling against Carlos Rodon.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions for ALDS Game 3, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Aaron Judge.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions

Parlay: Blue Jays ML | Guerrero to record a hit | Rodon under 5.5 Ks | Judge under 0.5 RBI (+310)

Blue Jays ML (+135): At first, it seemed a bit strange that the Blue Jays would push back Shane Bieber and roll with the inexperienced Trey Yesavage for Game 2.

But in hindsight, it makes perfect sense — and it puts Toronto in position to win this series tonight.

After sheltering Yesavage a bit with a start at home, Toronto turns to Bieber, an eight-year vet and Cy Young winner, in a hostile road environment.

Bieber has really encouraging numbers against the Yankees’ active lineup in 55 plate appearances:

  • .154 BA
  • .288 SLG
  • 32.7 K%
  • 5.5 BB%

In the 2022 ALDS, Bieber tossed 5.2 innings of two-run ball at Yankee Stadium to help guide the Cleveland Guardians to victory.

The Jays are 10-5 vs. New York this year, and they’ve won both matchups with Carlos Rodon on the mound. Their 111 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers ranked fourth in MLB during the regular season.

After outscoring the Yankees 23-8 in the first two games of the series, I think the Jays will get it done tonight.

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MLB SGP legs

Guerrero to record a hit (-245): I’m certainly comfortable playing Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+128) as a standalone, but in this SGP I’ll steer toward a safer option.

Guerrero has been electric so far in this series, going 6-for-9 with two home runs and one seismic bat flip.

He also has awesome numbers against Rodon: 10-for-17 (.588) with a home run, three doubles and four walks.

The five-time all-star underwhelmed in his first season after inking a $500 million extension. But he’s having a moment right now, and Yankee Stadium is a stage he’s performed well on many times before.

Since 2023, Guerrero has a .344/.417/.734 slash line in 17 games in the Bronx.

Rodon under 5.5 strikeouts (-177): Rodon closed out the regular season strong, posting a 2.52 ERA over his final 10 starts. But he didn’t have to punch a ton of guys out to make that happen.

In that span, Rodon averaged 4.7 Ks per game and went under this strikeout total eight times.

The left-hander has a 22.6% K rate against the Blue Jays’ lineup in 133 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant, which is just south of a league-average rate.

Not bad, but not good enough for me to want the over on this market.

This under is 2-0 in Rodon’s two starts vs. Toronto in 2025. And the Blue Jays had the lowest K rate in the majors during the regular season (17.8%).

Keep in mind that Rodon’s leash should be shorter with the Yankees’ season on the line. He’s a quick hook candidate if Toronto gets the bats going.

Fade Judge amid so-so playoff showing

Judge under 0.5 RBI (-180): Judge has dreadful career numbers vs. Bieber, and his overall postseason output is not what you’d expect from a multi-time MVP.

It can still be scary to fade his total bases prop, though, so I think this is a good way to bet an under for the towering outfielder.

  • Judge is batting in the No. 2 spot, which makes him a logical pitch-around candidate and means he likely won’t have a lot of basepath traffic in front of him.
  • In his career vs. Bieber, Judge is 1-for-13 with eight Ks and a 50.0% whiff rate.
  • Since the 2022 postseason, Judge is batting .214 and has gone under this RBI prop in 19 of 28 games.

Blue Jays picks as of 9:26 a.m. on 10/07/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 3 ALDS picks: Back Springer and Guerrero in the Bronx, fade Rodon

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks

The ALDS shifts to New York when the Yankees host the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday, October 7.

The pregame narrative: Toronto can sweep its way to the ALCS with a victory. The Blue Jays have manhandled their division rival this series, and while I’m not picking a side, I do expect Toronto’s offence to produce yet again.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks for Game 3 in the Bronx, featuring prop recommendations on Carlos Rodon, George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks

Best bet: Toronto over 3.5 runs (-106)

The Blue Jays aren’t going to put up double digits every game, but this line is highly playable. 

In fact, it feels like a no-brainer.

It’s hard to ignore what Toronto has done to New York in the ALDS: 23 runs on 29 hits. Video game numbers to put the series-favoured Yankees on the brink. 

But it’s beyond those two blowout wins. Toronto was a well-oiled machine during the regular season.

  • The Blue Jays were No. 1 in the majors in batting average and on-base percentage. 
  • In the second half, the Blue Jays ranked first in wRC+ and runs scored.

Key stat: Toronto averaged 5.01 runs per game, third to the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Blue Jays best bets

Springer to score (-106): If the Blue Jays’ offence is going to continue humming, Springer and Guerrero are two players I want a piece of. Especially at these prices. 

  • Springer is the leadoff hitter of this dangerous lineup, and scored 106 runs (tied for third in the AL) while setting a career-best .399 OBP. 
  • He led MLB in wRC+ and OBP in the second half, and was second in average and slugging. 

The veteran has been as hot as any hitter for a long stretch now. 

Springer has delivered many postseason homers in his career (demonstrating an ability to cash this himself), and has scored three times through the two games. 

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+125): Springer has faced Rodon more than any Blue Jay, but with mixed results. Guerrero’s performance is unquestioned. 

  • Guerrero has faced Rodon 21 times and never struck out. He has four extra-base hits, batting .588 and slugging .941.
  • This series, he’s 6-for-9 with six RBI and a home run each game. He hasn’t struck out.

Two more things: Vladdy’s punished southpaws this season (.326/.428/.519) and he’s been a beast at Yankee Stadium.

  • Career at NYY (48 games): .308 with a 1.002 OPS and 16 homers. He’s hit more bombs at Yankee Stadium than any park outside of Rogers Centre.

Vladdy’s ability to not only put the ball in play but to do it with authority makes this a smash play.

MLB postseason predictions

Rodon under 4.5 Ks (-108): This is no doubt a light line for Rodon, but here’s why I’m playing it:

  • Toronto finished the regular season with the lowest K rate in baseball. 
  • The club struck out just twice in its Game 1 victory and then five times in Game 2. 
  • Rodon faced the Blue Jays twice this season, falling short of this number both times. In each outing, he went five innings and punched out four batters. 
  • Rodon is an above-average strikeout arm with upside, but his leash is going to be shorter than usual in an elimination game. 

Despite allowing 13 runs on Sunday, Luke Weaver only threw a pitch after Will Warren absorbed 4.2 innings following Max Fried’s departure. 

The Yankees’ bullpen will be in good shape on Tuesday.

Whether there’s a lot of trust in the group is another question, but manager Aaron Boone will have fresh arms to turn to and can play the matchups if Rodon exhibits signs of trouble. 

Additionally, Rodon’s K rate dipped considerably in the second half. 

The southpaw struck out 28.2% of the batters he faced in the first half, but was a measley 21.9% post-all-star break. 

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks made at 2:25 p.m. on 10/06/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 3 ALDS picks: Back Springer and Guerrero in the Bronx, fade Rodon

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks

The ALDS shifts to New York when the Yankees host the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday, October 7.

The pregame narrative: Toronto can sweep its way to the ALCS with a victory. The Blue Jays have manhandled their division rival this series, and while I’m not picking a side, I do expect Toronto’s offence to produce yet again.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks for Game 3 in the Bronx, featuring prop recommendations on Carlos Rodon, George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks

Best bet: Toronto over 3.5 runs (-105)

The Blue Jays aren’t going to put up double digits every game, but this line is highly playable. 

In fact, it feels like a no-brainer.

It’s hard to ignore what Toronto has done to New York in the ALDS: 23 runs on 29 hits. Video game numbers to put the series-favoured Yankees on the brink. 

But it’s beyond those two blowout wins. Toronto was a well-oiled machine during the regular season.

  • The Blue Jays were No. 1 in the majors in batting average and on-base percentage. 
  • In the second half, the Blue Jays ranked first in wRC+ and runs scored.

Key stat: Toronto averaged 5.01 runs per game, third to the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.

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Blue Jays best bets

Springer to score (+120): If the Blue Jays’ offence is going to continue humming, Springer and Guerrero are two players I want a piece of. Especially at these prices. 

  • Springer is the leadoff hitter of this dangerous lineup, and scored 106 runs (tied for third in the AL) while setting a career-best .399 OBP. 
  • He led MLB in wRC+ and OBP in the second half, and was second in average and slugging. 

The veteran has been as hot as any hitter for a long stretch now. 

Springer has delivered many postseason homers in his career (demonstrating an ability to cash this himself), and has scored three times through the two games. 

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+128): Springer has faced Rodon more than any Blue Jay, but with mixed results. Guerrero’s performance is unquestioned. 

  • Guerrero has faced Rodon 21 times and never struck out. He has four extra-base hits, batting .588 and slugging .941.
  • This series, he’s 6-for-9 with six RBI and a home run each game. He hasn’t struck out.

Two more things: Vladdy’s punished southpaws this season (.326/.428/.519) and he’s been a beast at Yankee Stadium.

  • Career at NYY (48 games): .308 with a 1.002 OPS and 16 homers. He’s hit more bombs at Yankee Stadium than any park outside of Rogers Centre.

Vladdy’s ability to not only put the ball in play but to do it with authority makes this a smash play.

MLB postseason predictions

Rodon under 4.5 Ks (+123): This is no doubt a light line for Rodon, but here’s why I’m playing it:

  • Toronto finished the regular season with the lowest K rate in baseball. 
  • The club struck out just twice in its Game 1 victory and then five times in Game 2. 
  • Rodon faced the Blue Jays twice this season, falling short of this number both times. In each outing, he went five innings and punched out four batters. 
  • Rodon is an above-average strikeout arm with upside, but his leash is going to be shorter than usual in an elimination game. 

Despite allowing 13 runs on Sunday, Luke Weaver only threw a pitch after Will Warren absorbed 4.2 innings following Max Fried’s departure. 

The Yankees’ bullpen will be in good shape on Tuesday.

Whether there’s a lot of trust in the group is another question, but manager Aaron Boone will have fresh arms to turn to and can play the matchups if Rodon exhibits signs of trouble. 

Additionally, Rodon’s K rate dipped considerably in the second half. 

The southpaw struck out 28.2% of the batters he faced in the first half, but was a measley 21.9% post-all-star break. 

Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks made at 2:25 p.m. on 10/06/2025.

Cubs vs. Brewers Game 2 NLDS SGP predictions: Back Contreras, Vaughn in +390 wager

Cubs vs. Brewers predictions

The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs resume their NLDS matchup on Monday after a rest day.

The pregame narrative: Milwaukee is a slight home favourite after securing a 9-3 blowout win in Saturday’s series opener. The Brewers are starting lefty opener Aaron Ashby to counter Shota Imanaga, and the water is muddied on who will get the ball afterwards.

Check out my +330 Cubs vs. Brewers predictions for Game 2, featuring prop bets on Andrew Vaughn and Michael Busch.

Cubs vs. Brewers predictions

Parlay: Brewers +1.5 | Vaughn over 1.5 bases | Busch 1+ hits (+390)

Brewers +1.5 (-265): Milwaukee finished with an MLB-best 97 wins this year thanks to elite pitching, strong defence, and consistent hitting.

It doesn’t faze me that we’re not sure who’s pitching after Ashby — if anything, I trust Pat Murphy to pull all the right levers.

One possible option is getting some length out of Quinn Priester (3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). The righty had an opener in five of his outings this year, and Milwaukee went 4-1 in those games.

On the other end is Imanaga, who had a pretty rough end to the season.

The southpaw posted a 6.51 ERA in September, and Chicago failed to cover a -1.5 run line in all five of those starts.

Imanaga also gave up two earned runs in 4.0 innings in his first playoff start against the San Diego Padres, a game Chicago lost 3-0.

The Brewers are 53-29 at home this year; banking a run with them seems safe to me.

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MLB SGP legs

Vaughn over 1.5 bases (+125): Vaughn must be thanking some higher power daily that he was traded from the Chicago White Sox.

The fifth-year outfielder broke out after joining the Brewers, posting a .308/.375/.493 slash line in 64 regular season games.

In that span, he generated 1.3 bWAR. In 610 games with the White Sox, he had -0.6 bWAR.

Vaughn has tormented lefties as a Brewer, batting .403 with a 1.064 OPS. He’s also 3-for-7 against Imanaga with a .516 xSLG.

Busch 1+ hits (-162): Putting Busch in this parlay more than doubles the price from +175 to +390. That seems like a steal to me given the circumstances.

The Cubs’ leadoff man is a free swinger — to a fault sometimes — with a solid batted ball profile.

He ranks in the 74th percentile or higher in xBA (.275), xSLG (.569), barrel rate (17.1%), and hard-hit rate (47.3%).

Batting from the left side, he has pretty severe lefty-righty splits. He’s 0-4 against Ashby and will probably go down in the first inning, but after that, I like our chances.

Busch is 4-for-10 against Priester and is hitting .357 through four playoff games.

Cubs vs. Brewers predictions as of 12:25 p.m. on 10/06/2025.

Best MLB Game 2 division series prop bets: Ortiz and Hernandez have value, fade Schwarber

MLB prop bets

After Sunday’s off-day, both NLDS matchups are back on tap for their respective Game 2s on Monday night.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Blake Snell has carved up the Philadelphia Phillies many times before, including just a few weeks ago. Teoscar Hernandez has put on a laser show so far in the postseason, and he’ll have a good chance to keep that rolling against a familiar left-handed pitcher tonight.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Monday’s postseason action, featuring predictions on Kyle Schwarber and Joey Ortiz.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Snell over 7.5 strikeouts (-108)

The Cy Young version of Snell returned in August, and he seems to be hear to stay.

Snell, who missed most of this season with a shoulder injury, came back on Aug. 2 and turned in these numbers to close out the regular season:

  • 9 starts
  • 2.41 ERA
  • 11.7 K/9
  • .209 xBA
  • 33% hard-hit rate

The two-time Cy Young winner as absolutely looked the part, as the Phillies know all too well.

Against Snell, Philadelphia’s active lineup is 23-for-137 (.168) with 56 strikeouts and a sub-.300 SLG. That includes a game last month when Snell had 12 Ks over 7.0 scoreless innings.

The Phillies had the 11th-highest K rate vs. left-handers this season (23.8%). And their 35.4% K rate vs. Snell is off the charts.

Leashes tend to be tighter for pitchers in October, and the Dodgers have no reason to push Snell given that his start is sandwiched between two off days. But if he’s cruising, why stand in the way of that?

In his first postseason start as a Dodger, Snell went 7.0 IP vs. the Reds and struck out nine.

Key stat: Snell is 4-2 vs. this prop in his past six outings, averaging 8.5 Ks per start in that span.

MLB postseason player props

Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+125): Hernandez is 3-0 vs. this prop in the postseason, and I don’t intend to get off the bandwagon with a price this good.

  • The former Blue Jay has been a productive playoff contributor for the Dodgers since joining the team last season, slugging .541 and averaging 2.1 total bases over 19 games.
  • So far in these playoffs, Hernandez is 5-for-14 with three home runs and a double.

Facing a lefty tonight should give the right-hitting Hernandez an even greater chance to mash. He has a .549 SLG in his career when wielding a platoon advantage.

This particular lefty, Jesus Luzardo, should be a good fit for Hernandez, too. The outfielder is 3-for-8 with two doubles vs. Luzardo in their previous meetings.

Schwarber under 0.5 hits (+100): Schwarber walks and whiffs a ton, which makes him a great guy to fade in this market with Snell on the mound.

Snell’s primary flaw is his walk rate, which has ranked in the bottom 30th percentile every season since 2021, according to Baseball Savant.

He does also have a 96th-percentile whiff rate this year, though, so hitters are often fooled when they see something that looks hittable.

Schwarber’s 33.1% whiff rate ranks in the fifth percentile among hitters, but his 14.9% walk rate is way up in the 97th percentile.

He absolutely mashes when he gets ahold of the ball, but there are also tons of instances in which no contact is made.

Entering tonight, Schwarber is hitless in five consecutive games. He went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in NLDS Game 1.

And against Snell, Schwarber is 2-for-14 with six strikeouts and three walks.

MLB prop bets: Cubs vs. Brewers

Ortiz over 0.5 hits (-125): Ortiz had a sub-.600 OPS this season, which makes him a bit of a tough sell for any overs predictions.

But the right-hitting shortstop is solid against LHPs, and that’s the foundation of this pick.

  • Ortiz batted 39-for-135 (.289) vs. LHPs this season.
  • Against Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, Ortiz is 4-for-9 with a double.

Ortiz hardly ever walks (5.3%, 14th percentile) and he rarely strikes out (14.6%, 86th percentile). As long as he continues putting balls in play, he’ll have a chance.

Over his final 15 regular season starts, Ortiz went 12-3 vs. this line.

MLB prop picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 10/06/2025.

Best MLB Game 2 division series prop bets: Ortiz and Hernandez have value, fade Schwarber

MLB prop bets

After Sunday’s off-day, both NLDS matchups are back on tap for their respective Game 2s on Monday night.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Blake Snell has carved up the Philadelphia Phillies many times before, including just a few weeks ago. Teoscar Hernandez has put on a laser show so far in the postseason, and he’ll have a good chance to keep that rolling against a familiar left-handed pitcher tonight.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Monday’s postseason action, featuring predictions on Kyle Schwarber and Joey Ortiz.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Snell over 7.5 strikeouts (-109)

The Cy Young version of Snell returned in August, and he seems to be hear to stay.

Snell, who missed most of this season with a shoulder injury, came back on Aug. 2 and turned in these numbers to close out the regular season:

  • 9 starts
  • 2.41 ERA
  • 11.7 K/9
  • .209 xBA
  • 33% hard-hit rate

The two-time Cy Young winner as absolutely looked the part, as the Phillies know all too well.

Against Snell, Philadelphia’s active lineup is 23-for-137 (.168) with 56 strikeouts and a sub-.300 SLG. That includes a game last month when Snell had 12 Ks over 7.0 scoreless innings.

The Phillies had the 11th-highest K rate vs. left-handers this season (23.8%). And their 35.4% K rate vs. Snell is off the charts.

Leashes tend to be tighter for pitchers in October, and the Dodgers have no reason to push Snell given that his start is sandwiched between two off days. But if he’s cruising, why stand in the way of that?

In his first postseason start as a Dodger, Snell went 7.0 IP vs. the Reds and struck out nine.

Key stat: Snell is 4-2 vs. this prop in his past six outings, averaging 8.5 Ks per start in that span.

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MLB postseason player props

Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+138): Hernandez is 3-0 vs. this prop in the postseason, and I don’t intend to get off the bandwagon with a price this good.

  • The former Blue Jay has been a productive playoff contributor for the Dodgers since joining the team last season, slugging .541 and averaging 2.1 total bases over 19 games.
  • So far in these playoffs, Hernandez is 5-for-14 with three home runs and a double.

Facing a lefty tonight should give the right-hitting Hernandez an even greater chance to mash. He has a .549 SLG in his career when wielding a platoon advantage.

This particular lefty, Jesus Luzardo, should be a good fit for Hernandez, too. The outfielder is 3-for-8 with two doubles vs. Luzardo in their previous meetings.

Schwarber under 0.5 hits (+110): Schwarber walks and whiffs a ton, which makes him a great guy to fade in this market with Snell on the mound.

Snell’s primary flaw is his walk rate, which has ranked in the bottom 30th percentile every season since 2021, according to Baseball Savant.

He does also have a 96th-percentile whiff rate this year, though, so hitters are often fooled when they see something that looks hittable.

Schwarber’s 33.1% whiff rate ranks in the fifth percentile among hitters, but his 14.9% walk rate is way up in the 97th percentile.

He absolutely mashes when he gets ahold of the ball, but there are also tons of instances in which no contact is made.

Entering tonight, Schwarber is hitless in five consecutive games. He went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in NLDS Game 1.

And against Snell, Schwarber is 2-for-14 with six strikeouts and three walks.

MLB prop bets: Cubs vs. Brewers

Ortiz over 0.5 hits (-136): Ortiz had a sub-.600 OPS this season, which makes him a bit of a tough sell for any overs predictions.

But the right-hitting shortstop is solid against LHPs, and that’s the foundation of this pick.

  • Ortiz batted 39-for-135 (.289) vs. LHPs this season.
  • Against Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, Ortiz is 4-for-9 with a double.

Ortiz hardly ever walks (5.3%, 14th percentile) and he rarely strikes out (14.6%, 86th percentile). As long as he continues putting balls in play, he’ll have a chance.

Over his final 15 regular season starts, Ortiz went 12-3 vs. this line.

MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 10/06/2025.