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Flyers vs. Capitals picks and predictions Oct. 23: Expect goals, Jakob Chychrun to contribute

The Philadelphia Flyers visit the Washington Capitals for the second half of a back-to-back.

The pregame narrative: With both backup goalies likely getting the start today, I expect this game to go over the projected total. I’m also taking Jakob Chychrun to record at least one point.

Check out our Flyers vs. Capitals picks for the game on Oct. 23.

Flyers vs. Capitals picks

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Best bet: Over 6 goals (-110)

Much of the reasoning for this pick lies with the goaltending.

Ivan Fedotov is expected to start for Philly, and he hasn’t been good early in his career. He has allowed five or more goals in both outings this season and has an .818 SV%.

Things weren’t any better for him last year, when he had a 4.96 GAA and .811 SV% in three appearances.

Washington’s offence has been buzzing out of the gates. It ranks fifth in goals per game (4.0) and has an opportunity to fill the net tonight.

Logan Thompson takes the crease for the Capitals. The former Golden Knight allowed five goals in his last start against the New Jersey Devils but his team scored six and got him the win. That is a testament to Washington’s efficiency in the attacking zone.

Thompson has an .877 SV% and has allowed at least two goals in both starts.

Key stat: The over on this line is 3-0-1 this season in games where these goalies started.

Quick pick

Chychrun to record 1+ point (+140): I like the value here for a guy playing in Washington’s top defensive pairing.

Chychrun is on the ice a lot, averaging 21:30 of time per game. Only John Carlson plays more (26:02), but he has -157 odds to record a point, so I’d much rather get behind Chychrun in this market.

The tandem plays together in 5-on-5 scenarios, and all four of Chychrun’s points have come at even strength.

Again, I also like the over and believe the Capitals can contribute a lot of goals. If that’s the case, one of the Capitals’ top defencemen should find his name on the score sheet.

NHL picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET on 10/23/24.

Flyers vs. Capitals picks and predictions Oct. 23: Expect goals, Jakob Chychrun to contribute

The Philadelphia Flyers visit the Washington Capitals for the second half of a back-to-back.

The pregame narrative: With both backup goalies likely getting the start today, I expect this game to go over the projected total. I’m also taking Jakob Chychrun to record at least one point.

Check out our Flyers vs. Capitals picks for the game on Oct. 23.

Flyers vs. Capitals picks

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Best bet: Over 6 goals (-109)

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Much of the reasoning for this pick lies with the goaltending.

Ivan Fedotov is expected to start for Philly, and he hasn’t been good early in his career. He has allowed five or more goals in both outings this season and has an .818 SV%.

Things weren’t any better for him last year, when he had a 4.96 GAA and .811 SV% in three appearances.

Washington’s offence has been buzzing out of the gates. It ranks fifth in goals per game (4.0) and has an opportunity to fill the net tonight.

Logan Thompson takes the crease for the Capitals. The former Golden Knight allowed five goals in his last start against the New Jersey Devils but his team scored six and got him the win. That is a testament to Washington’s efficiency in the attacking zone.

Thompson has an .877 SV% and has allowed at least two goals in both starts.

Key stat: The over on this line is 3-0-1 this season in games where these goalies started.

Quick pick

Chychrun to record 1+ point (+140): I like the value here for a guy playing in Washington’s top defensive pairing.

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Chychrun is on the ice a lot, averaging 21:30 of time per game. Only John Carlson plays more (26:02), but he has -157 odds to record a point, so I’d much rather get behind Chychrun in this market.

The tandem plays together in 5-on-5 scenarios, and all four of Chychrun’s points have come at even strength.

Again, I also like the over and believe the Capitals can contribute a lot of goals. If that’s the case, one of the Capitals’ top defencemen should find his name on the score sheet.

NHL picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET on 10/23/24.

Best NHL prop picks Oct. 22: Bet on Nazem Kadri, fade Elias Pettersson during Frozen Frenzy

Every NHL team is in action for today’s “Frozen Frenzy,” which leaves no shortage of prop betting opportunities.

The pregame narrative: The Calgary Flames are rolling and Nazem Kadri has value to produce as the team’s top-line centre. Elsewhere, I’m fading a lost Elias Petterson and expect Connor Hellebuyck to shut down the St. Louis Blues.

Find my NHL prop picks for Oct. 22 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Nazem Kadri over 3.5 shots (+100)

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The Flames are one of the few remaining teams with a point in every game (4-0-1), and they should keep things rolling tonight.

Calgary welcomes Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Saddledome, and it’s hard to feel good about the visitors. Pittsburgh is 3-4-0 and playing atrocious defence early on, allowing the third-most goals (4.43) and second-most shots (34.4) per game.

The Pens are playing the second game of a four-game Canadian road trip and got shelled, 6-3, by the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday night.

Winnipeg had 37 shots and I expect Kadri to lead the charge for Calgary tonight.

Kadri will have plenty of chances playing on the top line and power play. His 18 shots are the second-most on the Flames and while he’s only cleared this line twice, he’s had three shots in two additional contests.

Key stat: Kadri is leading all Flames with 40 shot attempts, per Natural Stat Trick.

Quick pick

Pettersson to not score a point (+135): Heading into tonight, Pettersson hasn’t scored an even-strength goal in 30 straight games, including the playoffs.

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He’s registered just two assists in five games this season and is averaging 1.6 shots per game. This isn’t just a slump, it’s a massive drought. Canucks fans have to be slightly weary about locking him up to an eight-year contract at $11.6 million per year.

The Chicago Blackhawks are far from defensively sound but Pettersson just isn’t showing me anything in the early going after a brutal playoff run.

The Swede has been pointless in 11 of his last 20 regular season games.

Pavel Buchnevich to not record a point (+130): The only question regarding Hellebuyck is whether he’ll perform come playoff time. Granted, that’s a huge question … but in the regular season, we know the answer.

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Last year’s Vezina winner is off to a red-hot start, posting a 4-0-0 record with a 1.25 GAA (second in NHL) and .952 SV% (fifth). He shut out the Edmonton Oilers in the season opener and has only given up five goals since.

I want to back Hellebuyck and the best way in my mind (from a prop betting standpoint) is to fade Pavel Buchnevich.

St. Louis’ second-line centre is pointless in his last three games and in four of six on the season.

He’s coming off a year in which he scored 63 points in 80 games (0.79 per game), which was his lowest per-game mark since joining the Blues in 2021.

NHL picks made at 11:38 a.m. ET 10/22/2024.

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Maple Leafs picks vs. Blue Jackets Oct. 22: Bet on Toronto to win, Nylander to stay hot

The Toronto Maple Leafs are back at it tonight as part of the NHL’s “Frozen Frenzy.”

The pregame narrative: After hammering the Tampa Bay Lightning yesterday, Toronto travels to Columbus to take on the Blue Jackets in a back-to-back. I expect the Maple Leafs to win in regulation and William Nylander to stay hot.

Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. Blue Jackets for the game on Oct. 22.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Blue Jackets

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Best bet: Leafs to win in regulation (-132)

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Craig Berube has the Maple Leafs playing some great hockey.

Toronto is 4-2-0, allowing two or fewer goals in five of those contests. The outlier was a 4-1 loss to the New York Rangers where the Blueshirts scored two empty-net goals.

Great goaltending has played a factor, as the Buds are allowing the fourth-fewest 5v5 goals per 60 (1.33), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Anthony Stolarz has been tremendous and Dennis Hildeby was solid in his NHL debut. Stolarz turned away 32 of 34 shots in Toronto’s 5-2 win yesterday so he won’t be available, and there have been rumblings that Joseph Woll might make his return tonight.

Whether it’s Woll or Hildeby, I’m confident the Leafs can play a responsible game in front of them and outscore the Blue Jackets.

Columbus is 2-3 with its wins coming against the Buffalo Sabres (awful) and the Colorado Avalanche (can’t buy a save). Daniil Tarasov started in both of those games, gave up four goals apiece, and has a .876 SV% on the season.

The Blue Jackets did go 2-1 against the Leafs last year with a pair of high-scoring overtime victories, but I dare to say things feel different in Toronto this time around.

Key stat: Toronto has the fifth-best goal differential (+7) so far.

Quick pick

Nylander over 3.5 shots (-130): I talked a lot about Toronto’s defence, but the top offensive players have been showing out after a slow start.

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Auston Matthews has scored in three straight while Nylander has five goals and seven points in his last four games. There isn’t much value backing either to find the stat sheet and I don’t want to dip in on the anytime goalscorer markets.

But Nylander’s shot total has my attention, and that’s where I’ll go.

The Swede has gone over this mark in three of his last four games, logging eight shots against the Rangers on Saturday and five against the Lightning last night.

NHL picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET on 10/22/24.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Lightning Oct. 21: Bet on Domi, fade Hedman in Atlantic showdown

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday.

The pregame narrative: The defensive upside for both teams is intriguing so my best bet is the under. I’m also eyeing Max Domi and Victor Hedman on the prop market.

Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. the Lightning for the game on Oct. 21.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Lightning

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Best bet: Under 6.5 goals (-112)

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The Atlantic Division will be a competitive mess once again and the Leafs and Lightning started as two of its top defensive teams.

That also stands true for the NHL as a whole. Toronto allows the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.2) and Tampa Bay gives up the seventh-fewest (2.5). Both teams are bottom-five in shots allowed, as well.

It’s hard to pick a side tonight but I am more confident in it being a gritty defensive battle.

The additions of Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Anthony Stolarz have been super impactful. It seems rostering a couple of NHL-proven defensemen was all the team needed to have a solid defensive foundation.

It hasn’t been announced who will start in goal for Toronto with Joseph Woll practicing again but it is clear either option is better than what the team had at this time, last year.

Key stat: Unders are 4-1 in Leafs games this season.

Other picks

Domi to record 1+ point (+123): Domi has been excelling on a line with William Nylander and has five points in as many games to prove it.

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Again, this should be a defensive battle but Domi plays on the second line and hasn’t needed much time on ice to contribute.

The centreman averages just 15:15 of ice time but has points in three of five games and two multi-point outings.

Unfortunately, he doesn’t get much powerplay time (only 1:43 so far) but he is a great even-strength player.

Domi is a fast skater and a great passer. He’s not afraid to get his hands dirty, either, and is a perfect complimentary player for Nylander.

Hedman under 0.5 points (+118): Hedman is a point-producing defenseman (four points in four games) but I believe his chances of getting on the scoresheet will be slim tonight.

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Hedman has points in 2-of-4 games with two points coming on the powerplay and another on an empty net goal. That leaves one 5v5 point.

Toronto kills penalties at an 85% rate and only takes eight penalty minutes per game. Both of those stats rank in the top half of the league.

This feels like a good spot to fade Hedman.

Picks made at 9:45 a.m. on 10/21/24.

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Best NHL prop picks Oct. 20: Bet on Sharks’ Toffoli to score a point

A light three-game NHL slate on Sunday has my attention focused on one matchup in particular.

The pregame narrative: The Colorado Avalanche and San Jose Sharks are both struggling early on. The latter is a significant home underdog on Sunday, however, shining some value on a pair of players to register a point.

Find my NHL prop picks for Oct. 20 below.

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Best Bet: Tyler Toffoli to score 1+ point (-118)

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San Jose was desperate for offensive help after an abysmal 2023-24 campaign and Toffoli is at least providing some offensive relief.

The veteran scorer is proving to be a savvy offseason signing as he has six points across five games.

He’s registered a point in four of five outings this season and enters Sunday’s contest riding a three-game point streak.

Toffoli notched two points in his most recent performance, marking his second multi-point effort of the year.

There are a couple of reasons why I like Toffoli to find the scoresheet against the Avs.

The first is his usage. The winger is skating on the first line and the top power play, putting him in nice situations to generate offence. Two of his six points this year have come on the man advantage.

Secondly, Colorado is doing a terrible job keeping the puck out of its own net. The Avalanche own the worst goals against per game (5.60) in the NHL thus far.

The Avs have allowed three-plus goals in all five games they’ve played this season.

This price is more than fair in a juicy matchup for San Jose’s leading pointscorer.

Key stat: Colorado has the worst team save percentage (.779) in the league, sitting as the only team with a mark below .800 per Natural Stat Trick.

Quick pick

Zetterlund to score 1+ point (-118): This wager serves as an extension of my bullishness for Toffoli.

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Zetterlund hasn’t been as effective as his teammate, totalling three points in five games. All three of his points have been goals, however, showing that he’s going to the right spots on the ice.

It also helps that Toffoli and Zetterlund are practically joined at the hip. The two skate together on San Jose’s first line and the squad’s top power-play unit.

Additionally, Zetterlund also enters Sunday’s contest riding high. The winger has a goal in each of his last two outings.

Picks made at 9:27 a.m. ET 10/20/2024.

Best NHL prop picks Oct. 19: Bet on Bruins’ Zacha to score a point

Three off-the-radar NHL players will aim to become unsung heroes on my prop picks card for Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Pavel Zacha is off to a slow start but he’s in a great spot to produce for the Boston Bruins. Jake DeBrusk is doing pretty well for himself with the Vancouver Canucks and is a nice plus-money pick to notch a point. Thirdly, Tyler Bertuzzi makes the card in a plus matchup.

Find these NHL prop picks for Oct. 19 below.

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Best Bet: Zacha to score 1+ point (-125)

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Tonight seems like the right spot to back Zacha to score a point.

The Bruins winger started the year off in fine fashion, registering a point in each of Boston’s first two games.

The versatile forward, however, has failed to notch a point in each of his last three games.

What’s encouraging, though, is that he’s still receiving quality opportunities on a good Bruins squad. Zacha is averaging 19:11 in ice time per game this season and is in offensively-friendly situations.

Zacha skates alongside Elias Lindholm and David Pastrnak on the team’s first line. Additionally, he’s on Boston’s top power play with those two forwards, Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy.

The matchup is enticing, too, against the Utah Hockey Club. Utah is allowing the eighth-most goals per game (3.80) this season.

Key stat: Zacha is tied for second on the Bruins in shots (12).

Quick picks

DeBrusk to score 1+ points (+102): A change of scenery hasn’t been bad for DeBrusk.

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The ex-Bruins forward has three points in four games – all assists – for Vancouver. Two of his points have come on the power play, and that makes sense considering he’s skating on the team’s top unit.

Exposure to elite players like Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller is a great spot to be in.

It’s especially encouraging considering the matchup. The Canucks battle a Philadelphia Flyers team that’s tied for allowing the second-most goals per game (4.50) this season.

Bertuzzi to score 1+ points (+105): Bertuzzi’s tenure with the Chicago Blackhawks isn’t making any headlines.

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The tenacious winger was pointless in his first four games but did find the back of the net in the team’s most recent game.

His status as a top-six forward and a skater on the top power play put him on my radar for Saturday night.

Chicago battles the Buffalo Sabres and the latter is struggling to keep the puck out of their net. Buffalo is tied for 26th in goals against per game (4.00) and is tied for the sixth-worst power play (71.4%).

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET 10/19/2024.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Rangers Oct. 19: Take the over, bet on underdog New York

An Original Six matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers headlines Saturday’s NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: New York and Toronto both have capable offences which has me eyeing the over on tonight’s game total. The Rangers are road underdogs and I’ll take the value with a good team. Thirdly, I like Alexis Lafreniere to register a point in the contest.

Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. the Rangers for the game on Oct. 19.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Rangers

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Best bet: Over 6 goals (-121)

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Both Toronto and New York are scoring at will.

Toronto has scored four-plus goals in three consecutive games, with the lone exception being a shutout loss in its season opener despite registering 48 shots against the Montreal Canadiens.

New York has scored four-plus goals in all four games it played this season. The offence is led by Artemi Panarin, who’s tied for first in the NHL with 11 points.

The goaltenders are both playing well and capable of keeping this total low, but I am still skeptical of Anthony Stolarz.

Stolarz has been sensational and boasts a .940 save percentage through three starts. It’s important to remember, however, that this is a journeyman backup. He is certainly susceptible to a slip-up, especially against one of the NHL’s best offences.

Bet on two elite offences looking strong on Saturday night.

Key stat: The over on this total has hit or pushed in three of four games for Toronto and New York this season.

Other picks

Rangers moneyline (+110): Both teams enter this game with wins in three of four games.

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The Rangers and Maple Leafs are both capable of earning two points, but the former comes with plus-money odds, making them the better value choice.

New York has been dominant in its wins this season, too. All three of the team’s wins have been by three-plus goals, and its lone loss came in overtime to the Utah Hockey Club.

Lafreniere to score 1+ points (-129): Lafreniere is showing signs that he’s the player New York hoped for when the organization selected him first overall in 2020.

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The young winger is coming off a career-best 57 points in 2023-24 and is entering a contract year. Lafreniere is certainly playing his way into a nice extension as he has five points in four games this year, registering one in all four games this season.

He plays alongside Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin on an elite first line for New York. Adding Lafreniere to score a point is a logical next step with the over and Rangers moneyline on my card for Saturday.

Picks made at 10:45 a.m. on 10/19/24.

Best NHL prop picks Oct. 17: Target Trocheck, Stutzle and Eberle on Thursday

Three forwards contribute to today’s NHL prop picks.

The pregame narrative: The New York Rangers bring the best league’s offence into Motor City and I expect Vincent Trocheck to contribute. I’m also backing Tim Stutzle to top his shot total and Jordan Eberle to record a point.

Find these NHL prop picks for Oct. 17 below.

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Best Bet: Trocheck over 2.5 shots (-136)

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This is simple. The Rangers score the most goals per game (5.0), and Trocheck has taken the most shots for them … by a lot.

In three games, the 31-year-old centre has taken 11 shots and has cleared this total in each contest.

Players like Artemi Panarin have a 3.5 shot total even though the results haven’t been as promising (seven shots).

I’d rather buy low on the name value and take the guy who’s been peppering goalies this year.

Another encouraging sign is Trocheck’s time on ice. He’s averaging 22:41 per game — the more he’s out there the more potential there is for shots.

Key stat: The Detroit Red Wings allow the fourth-most shots per game (32.7).

Quick picks

Stutzle over 2.5 shots (+100): This pick is based more on potential than recent outcomes.

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Despite having six points in three games, Stutzle has cleared this total just once. I predict that to change, however, and that’s because of his shot totals over recent seasons.

Stutzle has averaged 2.76 shots per game over his last two years so statistically there’s good value here at plus money.

This is definitely going against the trend but I’m willing to take a risk on things changing for one of the NHL’s brightest young offensive players.

Eberle over 0.5 points (+108): Seattle’s captain has points in three of four games and has a relatively good matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers.

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Philly is tied for the six-most goals against per game (4.0) and leads the league in penalty minutes per game (18.3).

That should give Eberle a lot of chances to get on the board and add to his point-per-game pace.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 10/16/2024.

Best NHL prop picks Oct. 16: Back Elias Lindholm, Charlie McAvoy against Avalanche

Two Boston Bruins headline these NHL prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Boston heads west to take on a Colorado Avalanche team that can’t buy a save. I’m backing Elias Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy to find the stat sheet alongside the Utah Hockey Club’s Barrett Hayton.

Find these NHL prop picks for Oct. 16 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Lindholm over 0.5 points (-137)

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We’re only three games into the season but alarm bells are ringing in Denver.

The Avalanche are 0-3-0 with 20 goals allowed in those contests. They’ve given up at least six goals in every game and have the worst team save percentage (.785) by a wide margin.

It’s unclear if Alexandar Georgiev or Justus Annunen will start but neither are playing at an NHL level. Georgiev had an awful .897 SV% last year and has given up 13 goals on 62 shots (.790) so far. Annunen played most of the last two seasons in the AHL and was pulled in his only start this year.

Now, the Avs have to deal with a Bruins team which can score plenty.

Boston is averaging 3.75 goals per game this season and has David Pastrnak — one of the league’s top scorers — leading the first line and power play.

Lindholm centres Pastrnak’s line and PP1 and holds -137 odds to register a point, while Pastrnak is at a heavily-juiced -275.

Key stat: Lindholm has two goals and five points in four games.

Quick picks

McAvoy over 0.5 points (-103): McAvoy is one of the league’s top defenceman but isn’t a scorer like his opponent, Cale Makar.

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Still, McAvoy gets on the stat sheet enough where I think this is a solid value. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, McAvoy has 102 points in 145 regular season games (0.70 per game).

He’s registered a point in two of four games so far and leads all Bruins in ice time while ranking fourth in shots (10).

Hayton over 0.5 points (-115): The Hockey Club started their inagural season with three straight wins, scoring five-plus goals in each game. Hayton, Utah’s top-line centre, found the stat sheet in each win.

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Utah was blanked 3-0 by the New Jersey Devils its last time out but has a nice chance of rebounding on the road against the Anaheim Ducks.

Anaheim allowed the third-most goals and sixth-most shots last season and I don’t expect it to be much better this time around.

Lukas Dostal did log a shutout in his only start this year but that was against the bottom-feeding San Jose Sharks. Utah figures to be a much more competitive team and Hayton gets plenty of ice time and features on the first power play unit.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 10/16/2024.

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