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Senators vs. Oilers prop picks Dec. 22: Bet on Norris, Sanderson to deliver at plus money

An All-Canadian matchup headlines Sunday’s action as the Ottawa Senators visit the Edmonton Oilers.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are playing their second game in as many days and I expect this to be an offensive affair. Ottawa’s power play shouldn’t have any issues producing which is why I like Josh Norris and Jake Sanderson to deliver.

Check out my Senators vs. Oilers prop picks for Dec. 22.

Senators vs. Oilers prop picks

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Best Bet: Norris to score 1+ points (+112)

There’s one major mismatch in this game that has piqued my interest.

The matchup between Ottawa’s power play and Edmonton’s penalty kill skews heavily in favour of the Sens.

And that’s a big reason why I’m making this pick.

The Senators rank an excellent eighth in power-play percentage (23.9%) this season. The unit has been a consistent source of offensive production as the team has won seven of its last 10 games.

Edmonton’s penalty kill, meanwhile, has struggled mightily. It places a lowly 26th in penalty kill percentage (74.4%) and will be up against it on Sunday.

Norris is a featured member of Ottawa’s top power play and one of the team’s top scorers.

Fifth in points (21)
Fifth in power-play points (eight)

Special teams aside, Norris’ spot on the second line alongside Drake Batherson is a nice place to be for offensive production. Batherson is second on the Sens with 34 points.

Bet on a strong performance from Norris in a plus matchup.

Key stat: Norris has six points in his last nine games.

Quick pick

Sanderson to score 1+ points (+128): Sanderson is another stellar power-play performer who should benefit from this matchup.

The rearguard is fourth on the team with 12 PPP. He quarterbacks the top unit and will see plenty of touches on the man advantage.

Sanderson is a bonafide workhorse who will see plenty of ice time. The young defenceman leads his team in time on ice per game (24:24) this campaign.

He’s in fine form ahead of this contest, too. Sanderson has a point in three of his last four games and is coming off a three-point outing against the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday night.

Picks made at 11:21 a.m. ET on 12/22/2024.

Maple Leafs props vs. Islanders Dec. 21: Bet on Rielly, Horvat to notch a point

The Toronto Maple Leafs return home from a short trip to Buffalo to battle the New York Islanders.

The pregame narrative: It’s the holiday season, and I expect this matchup between the Maple Leafs and Islanders to give bettors plenty of offence. Morgan Rielly and Bo Horvat are two players who caught my attention in the prop market for Saturday’s matchup.

Check out our Maple Leafs props vs. Islanders for the game on Dec. 21.

Maple Leafs props vs. Islanders

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Best Bet: Rielly to score 1+ points (-107)

This seems like a great spot to target Rielly.

The Maple Leafs rearguard is trending up after notching a point in back-to-back games.

Rielly appears to be fully engaged for the Maple Leafs ahead of the Christmas and holiday break, too, as he dropped the gloves with Buffalo Sabres star Tage Thompson in Friday night’s contest.

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Mostly, Rielly’s spot on the top power play intrigues me against the Isles. New York sports the worst penalty-kill percentage (64.3%) in the NHL.

A poor penalty kill and unimpressive goaltending are two uncharacteristic traits plaguing the Islanders this season. Both work in Rielly — and Toronto’s — favour on Saturday night.

Key stat: New York ranks 22nd in save percentage (.892) this season.

Quick pick

Horvat to score 1+ points (+100): I typically target players skating on PP1 in this market, but I’m willing to make an exception for the Islanders.

The reason is that New York has the worst power-play percentage (12.1%) in the league this year.

Yes, the Islanders have the worst PP and PK in the NHL this season.

But this is a nice price to back Horvat. The centre is second among all Isles forwards in ice time (20:07) and third in points (22).

Horvat has been productive in recent outings, too, registering eight points in his last 10 outings.

Joseph Woll will likely start after Matt Murray tended the twine on Friday. Woll has allowed three goals in three of his last four starts.

Picks made at 10:31 a.m. on 12/21/2024.

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Maple Leafs props vs. Sabres Dec. 20: Back Matthews, Marner to produce on Friday

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres headline Friday’s NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Buffalo’s defence and goaltending aren’t the strongest, so I’m taking the Leafs’ tog guns, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, to find the scoresheet.

Check out our Maple Leafs props vs. Sabres for the game on Dec. 20.

Maple Leafs props vs. Sabres

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Best bet: Matthews to score (+100)

Matthews has been on a bit of a dry spell but all signs point to him snapping that tonight in Buffalo.

The Sabres’ goaltending room has a collective 3.41 goals against average, which ranks 26th in the NHL.

There was a lot of hype around this team in the off-season between the young talent and bringing back the winningest head coach in franchise history, Lindy Ruff.

So far, the first 32 games haven’t gone to plan as Buffalo ranks near the bottom in every defensive category:

T26th in goals allowed/game: 3.41
22nd in shots allowed/game: 29.4
22nd in penalty kill: 77.4%
29th in penalty minutes/game: 10.7

Toronto’s captain is experiencing the lowest shooting percentage of his career (10.4), but that should imrpove after tonight.

The Sabres allow the second-most high-danger goals against per 60 (1.79) and have the second-lowest high-danger save percentage (75.42%), per Natural Stat Trick.

Buffalo’s defence gives up numerous quality chances per game and it doesn’t have the goaltending to make the big saves when needed.

The three-time Rocket Richard winner sees over 20 minutes of ice time a night and plays on the top line with a couple of studs in Marner and William Nylander.

Key stat: Matthews has 19 goals in 27 career games against the Sabres.

Quick pick

Marner over 0.5 power-play points (+155): Marner has been an assists demon this season.

He’s fourth in the league with 32, only trailing Jack Eichel, Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon.

Twelve of those assists have come on the man advantage, which bodes well for this play.

As mentioned above, the Sabres own the 22nd-ranked penalty kill and take the fourth-most penalty minutes per game (10.7).

Marner leads all Maple Leafs in power-play points (16) and averages the second most power-play time on ice (3:16).

The former London Knight has produced seven goals and 25 assists in 26 games versus Buffalo in his career.

Picks made at 12:49 p.m. on 12/20/2024.

Maple Leafs props vs. Sabres Dec. 20: Back Matthews, Marner to produce on Friday

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres headline Friday’s NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Buffalo’s defence and goaltending aren’t the strongest, so I’m taking the Leafs’ tog guns, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, to find the scoresheet.

Check out our Maple Leafs props vs. Sabres for the game on Dec. 20.

Maple Leafs props vs. Sabres

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Best bet: Matthews to score (-110)

Matthews has been on a bit of a dry spell but all signs point to him snapping that tonight in Buffalo.

The Sabres’ goaltending room has a collective 3.41 goals against average, which ranks 26th in the NHL.

There was a lot of hype around this team in the off-season between the young talent and bringing back the winningest head coach in franchise history, Lindy Ruff.

So far, the first 32 games haven’t gone to plan as Buffalo ranks near the bottom in every defensive category:

T26th in goals allowed/game: 3.41
22nd in shots allowed/game: 29.4
22nd in penalty kill: 77.4%
29th in penalty minutes/game: 10.7

Toronto’s captain is experiencing the lowest shooting percentage of his career (10.4), but that should imrpove after tonight.

The Sabres allow the second-most high-danger goals against per 60 (1.79) and have the second-lowest high-danger save percentage (75.42%), per Natural Stat Trick.

Buffalo’s defence gives up numerous quality chances per game and it doesn’t have the goaltending to make the big saves when needed.

The three-time Rocket Richard winner sees over 20 minutes of ice time a night and plays on the top line with a couple of studs in Marner and William Nylander.

Key stat: Matthews has 19 goals in 27 career games against the Sabres.

Quick pick

Marner over 0.5 power-play points (+145): Marner has been an assists demon this season.

He’s fourth in the league with 32, only trailing Jack Eichel, Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon.

Twelve of those assists have come on the man advantage, which bodes well for this play.

As mentioned above, the Sabres own the 22nd-ranked penalty kill and take the fourth-most penalty minutes per game (10.7).

Marner leads all Maple Leafs in power-play points (16) and averages the second most power-play time on ice (3:16).

The former London Knight has produced seven goals and 25 assists in 26 games versus Buffalo in his career.

Picks made at 12:09 p.m. on 12/20/2024.

Bruins vs. Oilers prop picks Dec. 19: Bet on Marchand, Draisaitl to keep streaks alive

The Boston Bruins head west to face the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: These two teams are scoring a lot right now, so I’m backing one red-hot player from each side.

Check out my Bruins vs. Oilers prop picks for Dec. 19.

Bruins vs. Oilers prop picks

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Best bet: Brad Marchand to score 1+ points (-143)

Boston started the season at a snail’s pace on offence, but things are turning around.

The Bruins are 6-2 over their last eight games and are scoring 3.5 goals per game over that span. That’s almost a full goal over their season average (2.6).

As for Marchand? He’s been cooking.

1+ points in seven straight games
13 points over his last 13 games

Marchand hasn’t been a point-per-game player over the last two seasons, but he can still fill the score sheet.

Since the beginning of the 2022-2023 season, Marchand has 159 points in 188 games.

He’s no longer a top point producer in the NHL, but it’s still worth getting behind the veteran at this price during his point streak.

Key stat: Marchand is 6-2 against this line over his past eight games against the Oilers.

Quick picks

Leon Drasaitl to score 1+ goal (+110): Edmonton’s top point producer is on fire right now.

Drasaitl leads the NHL in goals (23) and has done most of his damage over the last 14 games. In that timeframe, the centre has 11 tallies.

And he’s been consistent, finding the net in 10 of those 14 games. That includes scoring in four straight heading into Thursday.

It’s not like Boston is an intimidating defensive team. The Bruins allow the 11th-most goals per game (3.2) and have a below-average penalty kill (77.5%).

Considering the Bruins average the second-most penalty minutes per game (10.9), there could be ample opportunities for Edmonton’s top dogs on the power play.

Drasaitl has five PP goals and currently boasts the fifth-highest shooting percentage (25.6%) in the league.

Picks made at 9:19 a.m. ET on 12/19/2024.

Bruins vs. Oilers prop picks Dec. 19: Bet on Marchand, Draisaitl to keep streaks alive

The Boston Bruins head west to face the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: These two teams are scoring a lot right now, so I’m backing one red-hot player from each side.

Check out my Bruins vs. Oilers prop picks for Dec. 19.

Bruins vs. Oilers prop picks

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Best bet: Brad Marchand to score 1+ points (-139)

Boston started the season at a snail’s pace on offence, but things are turning around.

The Bruins are 6-2 over their last eight games and are scoring 3.5 goals per game over that span. That’s almost a full goal over their season average (2.6).

As for Marchand? He’s been cooking.

1+ points in seven straight games
13 points over his last 13 games

Marchand hasn’t been a point-per-game player over the last two seasons, but he can still fill the score sheet.

Since the beginning of the 2022-2023 season, Marchand has 159 points in 188 games.

He’s no longer a top point producer in the NHL, but it’s still worth getting behind the veteran at this price during his point streak.

Key stat: Marchand is 6-2 against this line over his past eight games against the Oilers.

Quick picks

Leon Drasaitl to score 1+ goal (+110): Edmonton’s top point producer is on fire right now.

Drasaitl leads the NHL in goals (23) and has done most of his damage over the last 14 games. In that timeframe, the centre has 11 tallies.

And he’s been consistent, finding the net in 10 of those 14 games. That includes scoring in four straight heading into Thursday.

It’s not like Boston is an intimidating defensive team. The Bruins allow the 11th-most goals per game (3.2) and have a below-average penalty kill (77.5%).

Considering the Bruins average the second-most penalty minutes per game (10.9), there could be ample opportunities for Edmonton’s top dogs on the power play.

Drasaitl has five PP goals and currently boasts the fifth-highest shooting percentage (25.6%) in the league.

Picks made at 9:19 a.m. ET on 12/19/2024.

NHL prop picks Dec. 18: Back Kyle Connor and Matthew Tkachuk to produce Wednesday night

There are five games on Wednesday’s NHL slate, and I have two props worth taking.

The pregame narrative: Kyle Connor and the Winnipeg Jets have a plus matchup against the Anaheim Ducks. I also have a play on Matthew Tkachuk to record a power-play point.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 18.

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Best bet: Connor to score (-106)

I’ll gladly take this price on a player of Connor’s calibre with the type of matchup the Jets face.

Winnipeg has been dominating Anaheim, winning the last eight matchups with a +20 goal differential.

The Ducks haven’t been doing themselves any favours, either.

32nd in shots allowed per game (33.2)
27th in penalty kill percentage (72.5%)
T-18th in goals allowed per game (3.07)

When you flip the script, this is where the plus matchup presents itself.

The Jets rank first in power-play percentage (31.7%) and third in goals per game (3.67).

Connor should be circling his calendar every time the Ducks are due up. He has 12 goals, seven assists and a plus-9 rating in 17 career games against Anaheim.

Over his past seven games, Connor has six goals and 11 points with a 20.7 shooting percentage — well above his career average of 14.8%.

His career points per game (0.93) is impressive in its own right, but this season, he’s performing at a career-high 1.21 PPG pace and is top 10 in the NHL in shots/game (3.48).

Key stat: Anaheim has the highest expected goals against per 60 minutes in the NHL (3.7), per Natural Stat Trick.

Quick pick

Tkachuk over 0.5 power-play points (+195): I’m intrigued by this matchup with two top-10 teams in the NHL squaring off.

Although they’re lower in the standings, the Panthers are road favourites against the Wild, who are 7-3-0 in their last 10.

My perspective is the special team’s disparity will have a lot to do with the outcome of this game.

Florida owns the sixth-best power play (26.0%), whereas Minnesota owns the third-worst penalty kill (70.7%).

Tkachuk leads all Panthers skaters in power-play points (13) and power-play ice time (3:51).

The former Calgary Flame has also been on a heater in December, picking up six goals and six assists in seven games.

I’m anticipating a good old-fashioned barn burner as the over has hit in seven of the last 10 meetings between Minnesota and Florida.

Picks made at 12:37 p.m. 12/18/2024.

NHL prop picks Dec. 18: Back Kyle Connor and Matthew Tkachuk to produce Wednesday night

There are five games on Wednesday’s NHL slate, and I have two props worth taking.

The pregame narrative: Kyle Connor and the Winnipeg Jets have a plus matchup against the Anaheim Ducks. I also have a play on Matthew Tkachuk to record a power-play point.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 18.

NHL prop picks

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Embed: #103893

Best bet: Connor to score (+114)

I’ll gladly take this price on a player of Connor’s calibre with the type of matchup the Jets face.

Winnipeg has been dominating Anaheim, winning the last eight matchups with a +20 goal differential.

The Ducks haven’t been doing themselves any favours, either.

32nd in shots allowed per game (33.2)
27th in penalty kill percentage (72.5%)
T-18th in goals allowed per game (3.07)

When you flip the script, this is where the plus matchup presents itself.

The Jets rank first in power-play percentage (31.7%) and third in goals per game (3.67).

Connor should be circling his calendar every time the Ducks are due up. He has 12 goals, seven assists and a plus-9 rating in 17 career games against Anaheim.

Over his past seven games, Connor has six goals and 11 points with a 20.7 shooting percentage — well above his career average of 14.8%.

His career points per game (0.93) is impressive in its own right, but this season, he’s performing at a career-high 1.21 PPG pace and is top 10 in the NHL in shots/game (3.48).

Key stat: Anaheim has the highest expected goals against per 60 minutes in the NHL (3.7), per Natural Stat Trick.

Quick pick

Tkachuk over 0.5 power-play points (+175): I’m intrigued by this matchup with two top-10 teams in the NHL squaring off.

Although they’re lower in the standings, the Panthers are road favourites against the Wild, who are 7-3-0 in their last 10.

My perspective is the special team’s disparity will have a lot to do with the outcome of this game.

Florida owns the sixth-best power play (26.0%), whereas Minnesota owns the third-worst penalty kill (70.7%).

Tkachuk leads all Panthers skaters in power-play points (13) and power-play ice time (3:51).

The former Calgary Flame has also been on a heater in December, picking up six goals and six assists in seven games.

I’m anticipating a good old-fashioned barn burner as the over has hit in seven of the last 10 meetings between Minnesota and Florida.

Picks made at 11:56 a.m. 12/18/2024.

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Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars Dec. 18: Back Dallas to win and Auston Matthews to score

The Toronto Maple Leafs head to the Lone Star State on Wednesday to take on the Dallas Stars.

The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner are slated to play together on Toronto’s top line tonight. I’m looking for the captain to score but expect Dallas to win at home.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars for Dec. 18.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars

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Best Bet: Stars to win (-129)

Toronto’s star-studded top line will draw eyeballs, but Dallas is in better shape to win this game.

The Stars are 13-3-0 at American Airlines Center this season, allowing just 2.00 goals per game.

That’s largely thanks to Jake Oettinger, who has won eight of his last nine home starts. The netminder has shut down some of the league’s top offences during this run — with the help of an elite defence, of course:

3-1 win vs. Capitals on Dec. 16
3-1 win vs. Jets on Dec. 1
5-3 win vs. Avalanche on Nov. 29

Oettinger ranks 13th in save percentage (.913) and seventh in goals allowed average (2.33) and plays behind a defence which allows seventh-fewest shots per game (26.9).

Joseph Woll — who is expected to start for the Maple Leafs tonight — has even better numbers with a 2.24 GAA (third) and .918 SV% (fifth).

But I’m banking on some regression tonight.

Toronto is allowing the 11th-most expected goals per 60 (3.05) while Dallas is generating the fourth-most expected goals per 60 (3.34), according to Natural Stat Trick.

At home, I think the Stars can apply enough pressure on the young goaltender to secure a win.

Key stat: Dallas’ +24 home goal differential is the second-best in the NHL.

Quick picks

Matthews to score (+115): I’ll take Matthews to score at plus money against just about any team, regardless of how well it plays defensively.

Remember, we’re talking about a guy who scored 69 goals last year.

Toronto’s captain is starting to look like himself after missing nine games due to injury. He’s scored five goals in his last eight games and has at least four shots in five straight.

Matthews’ 15.9 expected goals are the third-most in the NHL, behind only Nico Hischier (15.7) and Kirill Kaprizov (15.9), according to Money Puck.

Oettinger and Dallas will be tough to crack but I’ll ride with the perennial Rocket Richard contender tonight.

NHL picks made at 10:21 a.m. ET on 12/18/24.

NHL prop picks Dec. 17: Bet on Morrissey, Svechnikov to produce on the power play

NHL fans are treated to an abounding ten-game slate on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: The Winnipeg Jets and Carolina Hurricanes are heavy favourites in their respective matchups. I’m taking Josh Morrissey and Andrei Svechnikov to produce on the man advantage. Thirdly, I’m backing Kevin Fiala’s shots on goal prop.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 17.

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Best bet: Morrissey over 0.5 power-play points (+162)

This is a price I can get behind for one of the best offensive defencemen in the NHL.

Morrissey has been on a tear all season, particularly in his last nine games. He’s racked up 10 points — with five coming on the power play — while averaging over 25 minutes of ice time in that stretch.

The former first-round pick leads all Jets in power play time-on-ice per game (3:14).

Winnipeg takes on a San Jose Sharks squad that struggles defensively.

3.5 goals allowed per game (28th)
32.6 shots allowed per game (31st)

San Jose also has the third-highest expected goals against per 60 minutes (3.41), per Natural Stat Trick.

Key stat: The Jets have the league’s No. 1 ranked power play, operating at 30.3%.

Quick picks

Svechnikov over 0.5 power-play points (+265): I’m taking full advantage of the matchup Carolina has tonight.

Normally a strong team under the supervision of Lou Lamoriello, the New York Islanders find themselves near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

New York takes the fewest penalties per game in the league (5.2), yet inversely, has the league’s worst penalty kill (64.7%).

Carolina has one of the most potent offences in the NHL, ranking at the top of the charts in every category:

3.5 goals per game (4th)
32.1 shots per game (2nd)
26.8% power-play rate (5th)
11.2 shooting percentage (7th)

The Canes and Isles squared off on Dec. 7 where Svechnikov potted not one but two power-play markers.

The Russian winger is having a nice season, with 24 points in 30 games and four power-play points in his last five contests.

Fiala over 2.5 shots on goal (-150): Fiala has found a nice home in Los Angeles after moving around earlier in his career.

Now, in his third season with the Kings, he’s produced 163 points in 180 games.

Fiala has cleared this mark five times in the last eight games, averaging 19:20 ice time/game, nearly two minutes more than his season average of 17:39.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are among the weakest defensive teams in the league. They rank 30th in shots/game (32) and 31st in goals/game (3.72).

The Pens also give up the fourth-most high-danger chances per 60 (12.47) and the most high-danger goals against per 60 (1.79). Both offer an extra incentive for Fiala to fire pucks on net.

Alex Nedeljkovic is the confirmed starting goalie for Pittsburgh. His .882 save percentage ranks 66th out of 86 qualified goaltenders this season.

Picks made at 1:26 p.m. 12/17/2024.