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Maple Leafs props vs. Islanders Dec. 31: Bet on Nylander, Knies to lead offence

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the New York Islanders in a New Year’s Eve matinee.

The pregame narrative: Picking on a weak Islanders penalty kill is my strategy for Tuesday’s afternoon affair. William Nylander and Matthew Knies both skate on Toronto’s top power play and figure to take advantage of this matchup.

Check out our Maple Leafs props vs. Islanders for the game on Dec. 31.

Maple Leafs props vs. Islanders

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Best Bet: Nylander to score 1+ power-play points (+200)

Betting against New York’s penalty kill has been a wise wager for prop bettors this season.

The Islanders have been terrible down a man all season long. They’re killing a brutal 63.3% of their shorthanded opportunities, more than six percent worse than the next closest squad (Detroit Red Wings, 69.7%).

Nylander is the first name on the Maple Leafs prop bettors should look to in this contest.

The talented winger skates on both power-play units currently, according to Daily Faceoff, meaning he’ll be on the ice for almost all of Toronto’s time on the man advantage.

He’s been a prolific producer on the power play this season, too. Nylander is second on the Maple Leafs in PPP (18) and tied for sixth in the league in the category.

Key stat: Nylander has a power-play point in two of his last three games and three of his last five contests.

Quick pick

Knies to score 1+ points (-117): Knies also figures to benefit from New York’s putrid penalty kill.

The young winger plays alongside elite talents like Nylander and Mitch Marner on the unit, putting him at the centre of Toronto’s offensive attack on most nights.

Knies’ usage at even strength also gives me confidence in his ability to convert. He plays on Toronto’s second line with David Kampf and Nylander and the latter ranks second on the squad with 41 points.

Knies is pointless in his last three contests but this could be the matchup where he breaks free. His last point came against the Isles on Dec. 21.

Picks made at 11:14 a.m. on 12/31/2024.

NHL best bet Dec. 30: Back Sam Bennett to record a point

I’ve got a best bet from Monday’s three-game NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: The Florida Panthers are favoured to beat a team with goaltending issues. I’m backing Sam Bennett to register a point in this plus-matchup.

Check out my NHL best bet for Dec. 30.

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Best bet: Bennett to score 1+ points (-134)

The New York Rangers are in a tailspin.

New York has lost 14 of its last 18 games and sits dead last in the Metropolitan Division with 33 points in 35 games.

The squad started the year off well almost exclusively thanks to the elite play of Igor Shesterkin.

But the netminder has hit a wall lately and owns an ugly 3.34 goals against average and a .897 save percentage in December.

It would be unfair to blame things squarely on Shesterkin. Check out how the Rangers stack up against the rest of the league defensively, per Natural Stat Trick:

3.53 xG against/60 (31st)
31.6 shots against/60 (31st)
62.34 chances against/60 (29th)

Shesterkin is being peppered on a nightly basis and Florida should be all over him tonight.

Bennett is far from the biggest name on the Panthers but he skates on the team’s second line alongside Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk.

Those two are -165 and -240 to register a point, respectively.

Bennett has been held pointless in four straight but has 27 points in 34 games this season and has logged nine shots in his last two outings.

Key stat: Bennett has a point in six of his last seven games against the Rangers dating back to last year’s Eastern Conference final.

Pick made at 3:09 p.m. 12/30/2024.

NHL prop picks Dec. 30: Back Sam Bennett and Barrett Hayton to record a point

I’ve got two prop picks from Monday’s three-game NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: The Florida Panthers and Utah Hockey Club are both favoured to beat teams with goaltending issues. I’m backing one player from each team — Sam Bennett and Barrett Hayton — to register a point.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 30.

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Best bet: Bennett to score 1+ points (-136)

The New York Rangers are in a tailspin.

New York has lost 14 of its last 18 games and sits dead last in the Metropolitan Division with 33 points in 35 games.

The squad started the year off well almost exclusively thanks to the elite play of Igor Shesterkin.

But the netminder has hit a wall lately and owns an ugly 3.34 goals against average and a .897 save percentage in December.

It would be unfair to blame things squarely on Shesterkin. Check out how the Rangers stack up against the rest of the league defensively, per Natural Stat Trick:

3.53 xG against/60 (31st)
31.6 shots against/60 (31st)
62.34 chances against/60 (29th)

Shesterkin is being peppered on a nightly basis and Florida should be all over him tonight.

Bennett is far from the biggest name on the Panthers but he skates on the team’s second line alongside Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk.

Those two are -165 and -240 to register a point, respectively.

Bennett has been held pointless in four straight but has 27 points in 34 games this season and has logged nine shots in his last two outings.

Key stat: Bennett has a point in six of his last seven games against the Rangers dating back to last year’s Eastern Conference final.

Quick picks

Hayton to score 1+ points (+145): Hayton and the Hockey Club take on a Seattle Kraken team struggling to get saves.

The Kraken have lost five of their last six while allowing 4.83 goals per game. The only victory came in overtime, 5-4, against the Vancouver Canucks.

Hayton is having a very mediocre season (16 points in 35 games) but he might be turning a corner.

The 24-year-old has five points in his last five games, cashing this bet three times.

He’s also skating on Utah’s top line alongside Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz, which piques my interest from a value standpoint.

Picks made at 1:54 p.m. 12/29/2024.

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NHL prop picks Dec. 29: Back Tkachuk to be active in the offensive zone on Sunday

Two forwards and one defenceman make up Sunday’s NHL prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Brady Tkachuk is one of the league’s most active offensive players and I’m backing his shots prop against the Minnesota Wild. I also like Jamie Benn to record a point tonight.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 29.

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Best bet: Tkachuk over 3.5 shots (-150)

This isn’t a line we get often, but the Wild provide a tough matchup. They allow the sixth-fewest goals per game (2.7).

However, they do concede the 15th-most shots per game (28.6), which is right around league average.

It’s going to take a lot more than that to scare me away from this pick, as Tkachuk is willing to let his shot go from all areas.

4.1 shots per game (2nd in the NHL)
4+ shots in 20/35 games

The Wild have been outshot in six of their last seven games. If Ottawa dictates the pace, expect Tkachuk to be heavily involved on offence.

Key stat: Tkachuk has cashed this bet in four of his past six games.

Quick picks

Benn to score 1+ points (-143): The long-time Dallas Star is heating up right now and I want in on the action.

Benn has recorded a point in 10 of his last 13 games, tallying 12 points in that time.

On Sunday, the Stars take on the Chicago Blackhawks, who present a favourable match to stay hot in.

Chicago allows the eighth-most goals per game (3.3). The side has lost three straight games, allowing 16 goals in that span.

The Stars score the 12th-most goals (3.1) and record the third-most shots on goal (30.9) per game.

This is a good spot to back Benn.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. 12/29/2024.

NHL prop picks Dec. 29: Back Tkachuk to be active in the offensive zone on Sunday

Two forwards and one defenceman make up Sunday’s NHL prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Brady Tkachuk is one of the league’s most active offensive players and I’m backing his shots prop against the Minnesota Wild. I also like Jamie Benn and Brandt Clarke to record points tonight.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 29.

NHL prop picks

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Embed: #104577

Best bet: Tkachuk over 3.5 shots (-124)

This isn’t a line we get often, but the Wild provide a tough matchup. They allow the sixth-fewest goals per game (2.7).

However, they do concede the 15th-most shots per game (28.6), which is right around league average.

It’s going to take a lot more than that to scare me away from this pick, as Tkachuk is willing to let his shot go from all areas.

4.1 shots per game (2nd in the NHL)
4+ shots in 20/35 games

The Wild have been outshot in six of their last seven games. If Ottawa dictates the pace, expect Tkachuk to be heavily involved on offence.

Key stat: Tkachuk has cashed this bet in four of his past six games.

Quick picks

Benn to score 1+ points (-137): The long-time Dallas Star is heating up right now and I want in on the action.

Benn has recorded a point in 10 of his last 13 games, tallying 12 points in that time.

On Sunday, the Stars take on the Chicago Blackhawks, who present a favourable match to stay hot in.

Chicago allows the eighth-most goals per game (3.3). The side has lost three straight games, allowing 16 goals in that span.

The Stars score the 12th-most goals (3.1) and record the third-most shots on goal (30.9) per game.

Clarke to score 1+ points (+118): This is going to be Clarke’s first full season in the NHL and he’s making the most of his ice time.

The defenceman has 20 points in 35 games. That leads the Los Angeles Kings’ defence despite Clarke being the fourth among blue-liners in average ice time (17:46).

A lot of that has to do with his position on the top power play. Clarke has seven PP points this season.

The Philadelphia Flyers are a plus matchup for any opposing skater. They allow the third-most goals per game (3.6) while having a below-average penalty kill (78.6%).

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. 12/29/2024.

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Maple Leafs props vs. Capitals Dec. 28: Bet on Matthew Knies, John Carlson

The Toronto Maple Leafs play their second game in as many nights on Saturday, as they host the Washington Capitals.

The pregame narrative: The NHL is back in full swing and Auston Matthews is injured again. I’m backing Matthew Knies to contribute in his captain’s absence while also taking a prop pick on Washington’s John Carlson.

Check out our Maple Leafs props vs. Capitals for the game on Dec. 28.

Maple Leafs props vs. Capitals

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Best Bet: Knies to score 1+ points (+100)

Knies plays important minutes for the Leafs, especially with Auston Matthews it out.

In the captain’s six-game absence earlier this season, Knies had five points and went 4-2 against this line.

He was kept off the score sheet in Toronto’s 5-2 win over the Detroit Red Wings last night. He still played 20-plus minutes, however, which is a good sign.

Knies continues to skate on the second line with Leafs’ top goalscorer William Nylander, and he ascends to the first power-play unit when Matthews it out.

The Capitals haven’t played since Dec. 23, which may seem like a good rest but it could result in them needing some time to get into the game.

Toronto’s talented offence has the potential for a big night — even on the back-to-back — and I expect Knies to be involved.

Key stat: The winger has nine points in the last 11 games in which Matthews has been injured.

Quick pick

Carlson to score 1+ points (+110): Washington’s offence has been on a downswing after exploding earlier in the season.

In December, the Capitals are averaging 2.4 goals per game (they average 3.7 overall). It appears the absence of Alex Ovechkin is starting to take its toll.

But that doesn’t change the fact that Carlson plays a boatload of minutes (24:00 per night) and is still a top point contributor for his team.

Carlson hasn’t recorded a point in five straight, but he still has 23 points in 34 games this season.

The defenceman has a point in half of the Capitals’ games this year (17 of 34), so I see some value with this plus-money price.

Matt Murray makes his second start of the season for the Leafs and I’m not sold on the rust being gone this quickly. In his first appearance against the Sabres, he allowed three goals on 27 shots against (.889 SV%).

And since the Leafs played last night, this game could see a lot of goals. If so, I’m sure Carlson would be involved.

Picks made at 10:41 a.m. on 12/28/2024.

Maple Leafs props vs. Capitals Dec. 28: Bet on Matthew Knies, John Carlson

The Toronto Maple Leafs play their second game in as many nights on Saturday, as they host the Washington Capitals.

The pregame narrative: The NHL is back in full swing and Auston Matthews is injured again. I’m backing Matthew Knies to contribute in his captain’s absence while also taking a prop pick on Washington’s John Carlson.

Check out our Maple Leafs props vs. Capitals for the game on Dec. 28.

Maple Leafs props vs. Capitals

Embed: #104509

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Best Bet: Knies to score 1+ points (-106)

Knies plays important minutes for the Leafs, especially with Auston Matthews it out.

In the captain’s six-game absence earlier this season, Knies had five points and went 4-2 against this line.

He was kept off the score sheet in Toronto’s 5-2 win over the Detroit Red Wings last night. He still played 20-plus minutes, however, which is a good sign.

Knies continues to skate on the second line with Leafs’ top goalscorer William Nylander, and he ascends to the first power-play unit when Matthews it out.

The Capitals haven’t played since Dec. 23, which may seem like a good rest but it could result in them needing some time to get into the game.

Toronto’s talented offence has the potential for a big night — even on the back-to-back — and I expect Knies to be involved.

Key stat: The winger has nine points in the last 11 games in which Matthews has been injured.

Quick pick

Carlson to score 1+ points (+112): Washington’s offence has been on a downswing after exploding earlier in the season.

In December, the Capitals are averaging 2.4 goals per game (they average 3.7 overall). It appears the absence of Alex Ovechkin is starting to take its toll.

But that doesn’t change the fact that Carlson plays a boatload of minutes (24:00 per night) and is still a top point contributor for his team.

Carlson hasn’t recorded a point in five straight, but he still has 23 points in 34 games this season.

The defenceman has a point in half of the Capitals’ games this year (17 of 34), so I see some value with this plus-money price.

Matt Murray makes his second start of the season for the Leafs and I’m not sold on the rust being gone this quickly. In his first appearance against the Sabres, he allowed three goals on 27 shots against (.889 SV%).

And since the Leafs played last night, this game could see a lot of goals. If so, I’m sure Carlson would be involved.

Picks made at 10:31 a.m. on 12/28/2024.

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Maple Leafs picks vs. Red Wings Dec. 27: Bet on Toronto to win, Knies to score a point

The Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Detroit Red Wings in their first game back from the holiday break.

The pregame narrative: Toronto limped into the pause, losing back-to-back games without Auston Matthews. Its captain will likely be out again, but I’m picking the Maple Leafs to win in regulation. Matthew Knies is a nice choice to register a point in this contest, too.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Red Wings for Dec. 27.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Red Wings

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Best Bet: Maple Leafs to win in regulation (+107)

Toronto lost 4-2 in this spot roughly two weeks ago with Matthews in the lineup.

But there are a few reasons why I like the Maple Leafs to exact revenge on their divisional rival.

The first is rest. Toronto desperately needed the holiday break as the squad played seven games in 12 days before the pause.

Goaltending specifically is where I expect Toronto to benefit the most as the team was leaning heavily on Joseph Woll and Matt Murray with Anthony Stolarz sidelined.

Secondly, the Red Wings played poor hockey before the holidays. They lost three consecutive games, including a pair to the Montreal Canadiens, by a 13-4 margin.

These results aren’t surprising for a team that places 27th in expected goals percentage (46.6%), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Special teams, specifically the penalty kill, are why I favour the Maple Leafs in this contest. They’re tied for seventh in PK percentage (82.5%) while the Red Wings are 31st in the category (68.8%).

Toronto’s power play should be able to capitalize against one of the league’s worst penalty kills and win this game in regulation.

Key stat: Detroit is 7-9-2 at home this season and has lost back-to-back home games in regulation.

Quick pick

Knies to score 1+ points (-104): Knies’ spot in the lineup makes him too hard to ignore at this price.

The Toronto winger skates on the team’s top line alongside John Tavares and Mitcher Marner. Additionally, he’s on the first power play alongside those two, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly.

Knies’ production was inconsistent before the break, with three points in six games but one of those was a goal against Detroit.

The power play is where Knies will be a real threat to convert. Detroit’s PK issues are well documented as it has conceded one power-play goal in three of its last five outings.

Knies is averaging a healthy 18:31 in ice time across his last 10 games. Expect him to be active offensively in this contest.

NHL picks made at 3:19 p.m. ET on 12/26/24.

NHL prop picks Dec. 23: Back Horvat, Michkov to get on the score sheet on Monday

I’ve picked out two props from Monday’s NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Bo Horvat has good value to score in a plus matchup with the Buffalo Sabres. Elsewhere, I’m backing Matvei Michkov in an intrastate battle between the Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 23.

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Best bet: Horvat to score 1+ point (-150)

Horvat has 25 points in 33 games this season and he’s on a bit of a tear.

The centreman has points in five of his last seven games and is coming off a three-point performance against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday.

Buffalo is as bad as it gets right now, losing 13 straight games and allowing 4.2 goals per game over the skid.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to start for the Sabres and he’s allowed 10 goals on 33 shots across his last two starts.

If there’s any team that you should be finding a way to fade right now, it’s Buffalo. And Horvat is a talented forward who bettors can get behind at a fair price.

Key stat: Horvat has two points in two games against Buffalo this season.

Quick pick

Michkov to score 1+ point (-120): There’s a fairly large disclaimer attached to this bet and it’s that Michkov hasn’t scored in five games.

I’ll try and spin it into a positive by saying it’s all the more impressive that he is second on the Flyers with 27 points in 32 outings.

And there isn’t a better defence to break a slump against.

Pittsburgh allows the most goals against per game (3.7).

The Penguins also give up the fourth-most shots against (31.7).

Opposing forwards have been lighting up the Penguins all season and this is a buy-low opportunity.

Before his current slump, Michkov had 10 points in the previous five games.

The rookie can be a streaky player and this pick is about predicting the start of a hot streak against a weak defensive side.

Picks made at 1:03 p.m. 12/23/2024.

NHL prop picks Dec. 23: Back Horvat, Michkov to get on the score sheet on Monday

I’ve picked out two props from Monday’s NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Bo Horvat has good value to score in a plus matchup with the Buffalo Sabres. Elsewhere, I’m backing Matvei Michkov in an intrastate battle between the Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 23.

NHL prop picks

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Embed: #104269

Best bet: Horvat to score 1+ point (-139)

Horvat has 25 points in 33 games this season and he’s on a bit of a tear.

The centreman has points in five of his last seven games and is coming off a three-point performance against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday.

Buffalo is as bad as it gets right now, losing 13 straight games and allowing 4.2 goals per game over the skid.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to start for the Sabres and he’s allowed 10 goals on 33 shots across his last two starts.

If there’s any team that you should be finding a way to fade right now, it’s Buffalo. And Horvat is a talented forward who bettors can get behind at a fair price.

Key stat: Horvat has two points in two games against Buffalo this season.

Quick pick

Michkov to score 1+ point (-118): There’s a fairly large disclaimer attached to this bet and it’s that Michkov hasn’t scored in five games.

I’ll try and spin it into a positive by saying it’s all the more impressive that he is second on the Flyers with 27 points in 32 outings.

And there isn’t a better defence to break a slump against.

Pittsburgh allows the most goals against per game (3.7).

The Penguins also give up the fourth-most shots against (31.7).

Opposing forwards have been lighting up the Penguins all season and this is a buy-low opportunity.

Before his current slump, Michkov had 10 points in the previous five games.

The rookie can be a streaky player and this pick is about predicting the start of a hot streak against a weak defensive side.

Picks made at 11:56 a.m. 12/23/2024.

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