Category: NHL

The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome Auston Matthews back to their lineup for Saturday’s tilt against the Boston Bruins.

The pregame narrative: Matthews missed six games with an undisclosed upper-body injury, but he’s back in time for an emotional matchup against Boston. His elite goal-scoring skills will be needed as the offence struggled in his absence.

Check out our Auston Matthews props for Jan. 4 below.

Auston Matthews props

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

NHL odds as of 1:22 p.m. ET on 01/04/2025.

Matthews returns for the second time this season from an undisclosed upper-body injury, but his health remains a major question mark.

Toronto and Matthews’ unwillingness to share any further details about the superstar’s injury opens up plenty of speculation from fans and prop bettors alike.

Matthews’ on-ice production is solid yet unspectacular for a player of his calibre. Toronto’s captain has 11 goals and 23 points across 24 contests.

His current goal output extrapolates to 37.8 markers across 82 games, which is well short of his preseason expectations.

Toronto averaged 2.5 goals per game during Matthews’ recent six-game absence, showing that the team needs its top sniper in top form.

How should bettors wager on Matthews in his return? See my best bet below.

Best Matthews prop bet

Best Bet: Matthews under 3.5 shots (+115)

I’ll happily take plus-money odds to fade Matthews in what should be a physical matchup.

Prop bettors can’t assume Matthews is at full health after two extended absences this season. He’s clearly fighting through something.

Matthews’ shot volume also tells a similar story. He’s averaging nearly a full shot per 60 fewer this year (12.2) than he was a season ago (13.0).

His current shots per 60 mark is his lowest since the 2020-21 campaign.

This is a difficult matchup for Toronto’s talented goalscorer, too:

• Bruins allow the sixth-fewest shots per game (26.7).

• Matthews totalled three shots in his lone contest vs. Boston this season.

Matthews’ usage could also be very difficult to predict in this game.

The Maple Leafs may be unwilling to push Matthews fully in his first game back from his second absence.

The lack of detail surrounding his injury makes it difficult to gauge, but Matthews does seem to carry a heightened injury risk. That’s something prop bettors who are looking to bet overs should be cautious of as Matthews returns to action.

Key stat: The Bruins are allowing the third-fewest shots per game (23.8) over the last month of the season.

Picks made at 1:46 p.m. ET on 01/04/2025.

Few rivalries in today’s NHL carry as much emotion as the one shared by the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs.

The pregame narrative: The big news heading into this contest is that Auston Matthews returns to the lineup for Toronto. It’s Morgan Rielly’s points prop, however, where I’m looking for my best bet in this contest. Additionally, I’m picking Brad Marchand and Elias Lindholm to find the score sheet for Boston.

Check out our Maple Leafs props vs. Bruins for the game on Jan. 4.

Maple Leafs props vs. Bruins

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Best Bet: Rielly to score 1+ points (+104)

Toronto’s offence receives a significant boost with Matthews returning to the lineup.

The superstar forward is back after missing six games with an undisclosed upper-body injury. His presence is a welcome sight for a Maple Leafs offence that struggled in his absence.

Toronto scored three goals or fewer in five of the six games he missed, totalling 15 goals (2.5 per game) during this stretch.

Having his elite shot back on the power play should be a major boon for Toronto on Saturday.

The Bruins haven’t been very good on the penalty kill this year. They rank a brutal 25th on the PK (75.8%).

Boston’s inability to keep the puck out of its net extends beyond its penalty kill troubles. The Bruins also place an underwhelming 24th in team save percentage (.888), according to Natural Stat Trick.

So where does Rielly come into all this?

Rielly skates alongside Matthews on Toronto’s top power play. Adding a skilled scorer of Matthews’ ilk significantly boosts his chances of reaching the stat sheet.

Additionally, Rielly leads all Maple Leafs blue-liners in ice time per game (21:17). He’ll be out there plenty with Matthews, and I’m willing to wager on him registering a point at plus-money odds.

Key stat: Rielly has four points in two games against the Bruins this season.

Quick picks

Marchand to score 1+ points (-134): This is a nice price to bet on Marchand.

The Bruins winger is point-less in his last three games, but he was scorching hot before that. He had seven goals and 13 points in 10 contests.

A date against the Maple Leafs almost always seems to bring the best out of Marchand. The Boston captain has two points in two outings against Toronto this season, including a game-winning goal.

Marchand skates on the Bruins’ first line and top power play. He’ll be in the offensive mix.

Lindholm to score 1+ points (-104): Lindholm’s tenure with Boston hasn’t gone as planned.

The Bruins centre has seven goals and 20 points in 40 games, largely underperforming on the contract he signed in the offseason.

But prop bettors have to like Lindholm’s chances of producing given his spot in the lineup. He’s skating with Marchand and David Pastrnak on Boston’s first line and top power play.

There are some signs that he’s starting to build chemistry with the Bruins. He has seven points in his last nine games, cashing this wager six times during this stretch.

Picks made at 12:49 p.m. on 01/04/2024.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders battle on Long Island on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto beat New York, 3-1, in a New Year’s Eve matinee two days ago. Auston Matthews remains sidelined, but I expect the Buds to pick up another win and Matthew Knies to record a point.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Islanders for Jan. 2.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Islanders

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Best Bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-108)

Toronto enters the new year atop the Atlantic Division with a 23-13-2 record.

The Leafs have dropped three of their last five games, but their overall body of work is encouraging. And while Matthews’ mystery injury is concerning, the squad hasn’t missed a beat with him sidelined.

• Toronto is 9-5-0 without its captain this season.
  
• The Leafs are 44-24-2 without Matthews since he entered the league.

Strong goaltending and gritty, defensive play has been a big part of why the Leafs are succeeding without the reigning Rocket Richard winner.

Joseph Woll is having a breakout year, ranking 10th in goals-against average (2.48) and 11th in save percentage (.913).

He turned away 30 of 31 shots against the Isles on Tuesday.

New York isn’t a team that can pour it on offensively, either. The Isles are 14-17-7, scoring the seventh-fewest goals per game (2.63).

Combine that with underwhelming goaltending and I think the Leafs should win comfortably.

Key stat: New York allowed the seventh-most goals per game (3.62) in December.

Quick picks

Knies to record a point (-103): Knies is on a four-game pointless drought but he’s still getting plenty of opportunities.

The winger skates on Toronto’s second line alongside David Kampf and William Nylander. The latter leads the Maple Leafs in goals (23) and is second in points (43).

Knies is also playing on the first power-play unit, which will goes up against an awful Islanders penalty kill.

New York is killing a league-worst 63.9% of its penalties. That’s 5.7% lower than the Detroit Red Wings, who rank 31st.

Knies recorded a point against the Isles on Dec. 21 and had a team-high five shots on goal when they met on New Year’s Eve.

NHL picks made at 10:21 a.m. ET on 01/02/25.

I’m looking for a trio of NHL players to cash their point props to end 2024.

The pregame narrative: Michael Bunting is on a surprising run of production and he’s a strong candidate to record a point on Tuesday. Elsewhere, Steven Stamkos and Jake DeBrusk are my choices to close out the year with nice performances.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 31.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Bunting to score 1+ points (+106)

Unsurprisingly, Bunting’s recent hot streak is flying under the radar.

The Pittsburgh Penguins forward is riding a three-game goal and points streak. He’s tallied four goals and five points during this run, helping the Pens score a pair of victories.

A good chunk of the winger’s production has come on the power play. Three of his markers during this stretch have come on the man advantage, and that’s where I see him being a threat on Tuesday.

Pittsburgh visits the Detroit Red Wings, and the latter owns one of the league’s worst penalty kills.

The Red Wings are an awful 31st on the penalty kill (69.7%) and surrender the eighth-most goals per game (3.28) in the NHL.

Pittsburgh’s struggles this season are well-documented, but it does boast a league-average offence. It places 15th in goals per game (3.08) this year.

Key stat: Bunting is second on the Penguins with nine power-play points this season.

Quick picks

Stamkos to score 1+ points (-117): The Nashville Predators didn’t receive the boost they were expecting after adding Stamkos.

The Predators are a pitiful 11-19-7 this season and are nowhere near the playoffs. Stamkos’ 11 goals and 22 points across 37 games aren’t going to turn heads, but his production is trending upwards.

Stamkos has nine points in his last nine games. His chances at finding the score sheet tonight are boosted by his opponent, the Minnesota Wild.

Minnesota is ceding the sixth-fewest goals per game (2.68) but does own the third-worst penalty kill in the NHL (70.0%).

Stamkos’ 12 power-play points lead the Preds, making this a nice opportunity to back the veteran.

DeBrusk to score 1+ points (-127): Like Bunting, DeBrusk has proven to be a streaky player throughout his career.

The Vancouver Canucks winger has a point in three consecutive games after going four contests without a point.

He’s coming off a two-point performance against the Seattle Kraken where he registered a power-play point.

DeBrusk skates on Vancouver’s top power play, which has a plus matchup against the Calgary Flames. Calgary ranks a lowly 29th in penalty kill percentage this season (72.2%).

This will be the third meeting between the Flames and Canucks this season. DeBrusk has a point in the previous two contests.

Picks made at 1:25 p.m. 12/31/2024.

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