Category: NHL

Connor McDavid headlines Thursday’s NHL prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Sometimes you just have to play the hits. McDavid is once again on a torrid pace, sitting top five in points after a monstrous November. Elsewhere, Morgan Geekie has a chance to add to his goal total against a struggling Jordan Binnington.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 4.

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NHL prop picks

Best bet: McDavid 2+ points (+107)

There are a handful of players in the NHL that bettors can feel comfortable backing at this number, and McDavid is one of them.

The five-time Art Ross Trophy winner really hit his stride last month after a slow start (by his standards):

• October: 14 points in 12 games (4-8 vs. this line)
• November: 22 points in 14 games (8-6 vs. this line)

Edmonton’s offence is heating up again, and now McDavid gets to face a Seattle Kraken team the Oilers just beat on the road, 4-0, last Saturday.

McDavid contributed a goal and an assist in that game while playing a November-low 17:39 minutes.

-> Bet on McDavid and the Oilers tonight

The Kaken are a solid team, but they’ve gotten sketchy goaltending out of Joey Daccord recently.

The netminder posted a sub-.900 SV% in November and ranks a pedestrian 37th in Money Puck’s goals saved above expected.

Edmonton needs to get things rolling, and I expect McDavid to lead the charge at home.

Key stat: McDavid is averaging 1.5 PPG at home this year.

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NHL predictions

Geekie to score (+148): Who would have guessed Geekie would be top-five in scoring heading into December? Not me, that’s for sure.

The Boston Bruins centre has 20 goals so far, good for second entering play on Dec. 4. That’s on pace to shatter his previous career high of 33, which he set last year.

-> See Thursday’s player prop markets at NorthStar Bets

Geekie is probably due for some regression given his sky-high shooting percentage (26.7%), but I don’t think it’ll happen tonight.

The St. Louis Blues are basement dwellers for a few reasons, and Binnington is high on that list.

• 3.20 GAA (45th)
• .878 SV% (48th)

Geekie has played his last three games without Davis Pastrnak, who is injured, and that hasn’t slowed him down. He’s scored three goals in those contests

NHL prop picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 4, 2025.

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The Toronto Maple Leafs’ six-game road trip ends in Raleigh with a Thursday night showdown against the Carolina Hurricanes.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a +170 underdog as both teams search for a third straight win. The Maple Leafs have gotten solid goaltending lately out of Joseph Woll, who is expected to start tonight. At the time of writing, it’s unclear who will be in goal for the Hurricanes.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes SGP predictions on Dec. 4, with prop bets on Seth Jarvis and William Nylander.

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Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes SGP

Parlay: Hurricanes 60-min ML | Jarvis 1+ points | Nylander 1+ points (+310)

Hurricanes 60-minute moneyline (-121): I would love to see Brandon Bussi between the pipes for Carolina. The 27-year-old rookie is 7-1-0 with a 2.11 GAA and has cashed this bet in 62.5% of his starts.

But the Hurricanes should still dominate the Leafs even if they start an out-of-form Frederik Anderson.

-> Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes at NorthStar Bets!

You have to scroll down the page on the league-wide standings to see the gap between No. 5 Carolina (16-7-2) and No. 25 Toronto (12-11-3).

And the analytics confirm the eye test.

Corsi is an advanced statistic provided by Natural Stat Trick, which measures shot attempt differential, and these teams are on the complete opposite ends of the spectrum.

• Carolina: 1st in Corsi rate (60.12%)
• Toronto: 31st in Corsi rate (45.76%)

In October, the Hurricanes beat the Leafs, 5-4, while out-shooting them 47-20 and generating 71.77% of chances. The xG in that matchup was 5.09 to 2.23.

Nothing Toronto has done lately shows it is capable of hanging with a team like Carolina.

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Other NHL predictions

Jarvis to score 1+ points (-190): Jarvis was a surprise addition to Canada’s 4 Nations squad last year, and he seems like a lock for Milan — assuming the stadium gets built.

The 23-year-old winger has 15 goals (10th in NHL) and 22 points in 25 games.

That puts him on pace to break his career highs in both categories, and the shocking part is that he only has one power-play point so far.

-> Don’t miss out — make your own SGP here!

Jarvis had at least 19 PP points in each of the last two seasons, so bettors should expect some positive regression there.

But I’m confident he can get the job done at even strength tonight, given Toronto’s defensive deficiencies.

Nylander to score 1+ points (-225): This leg massively boosts the parlay’s payout from +128 to +310 thanks to some negative correlation.

Nylander is on pace for his first 100-point campaign and ranks 10th in points (32) despite missing four games due to injury/illness.

The winger was held off the stat sheet on Tuesday against the Florida Panthers, but he’d logged a point in 17 of 18 games before that. Toronto lost 10 of those contests, including seven in regulation.

Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes SGP made at 9:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 4, 2025.

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An all-Canadian matchup between the Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens serves as the backbone of today’s NHL parlay picks.

The pregame narrative: Both squads are struggling north of the border, and there’s value to be had in taking the over at Bell Centre. Elsewhere, I’m looking for the Dallas Stars to cover as puck-line underdogs against the New Jersey Devils.

Check out the full +314 NHL parlay predictions Dec. 3, featuring a prop pick on San Jose Sharks forward Will Smith.

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NHL parlay predictions Dec. 3

Parlay: Jets/Canadiens over 6 goals | Stars +1.5 | Smith 1+ point (+314)

Jets/Canadiens over 6 goals (-121): Montreal has lost seven of its last 10 games, and Winnipeg has dropped five of its last six. Someone is going to grab a win tonight, but I don’t want to pick a side.

That’s because both teams are dealing with goaltending issues.

• Montreal played and lost 5-2 last night with Sam Montembeault in net. That means Jakub Dobes is likely to start. He has a 3.22 GAA and .888 SV%.

• Dobes has started in nine straight games with 7+ goals scored.

• Conner Hellebuyck is out for Winnipeg. Backup netminders Eric Comrie and Thomas Milic both have sub-.900 SV%’s and GAA’s above 3.10.

• Winnipeg has at least pushed on this total in six of seven games since Hellebuyck’s injury.

-> Don’t miss out — take the over in Montreal here!

These are two good offensive teams with plenty of star power up and down the lineup. I expect this to turn into a track meet.

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Other picks

Stars +1.5 (-265): This pick feels pretty safe given Dallas’ current form.

The Stars are 10-3 in their last 13 games, covering a +1.5 puckline in each of the losses. In that span, they’re averaging a blistering 4.07 goals per game.

For some added context, the league-leading team in goals/game is the Colorado Avalanche at 4.08. No other team sits above 3.62.

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New Jersey is a good team, but is missing Jack Hughes for the foreseeable future.

The Devils have only won by two-plus goals once in their last 12 games.

Smith 1+ points (-157): Macklin Celebrini is the face of San Jose’s franchise, but Smith is pretty good, too.

The second-year forward is on pace for an 82-point campaign and has been tearing it up alongside Celebrini at 5v5.

Smith has five goals and six points in his last three games and has cashed this bet in six of his last eight.

The Sharks are home underdogs against the Washington Capitals tonight, but I still expect San Jose’s young guns to contribute.

Washington is on a back-to-back and is playing its fourth game in six nights.

NHL parlay predictions made at 11:20 a.m. on Dec. 3, 2025.

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Kirill Kaprizov headlines Tuesday’s NHL anytime goal picks.

The pregame narrative: Kaprizov is living up to the hype as the NHL’s highest-paid player. The Russian winger is on a five-game goal streak and has a great chance to add to that total when he plays the Edmonton Oilers.

Check out my NHL goal picks for Dec. 2, featuring a play on Cole Caufield.

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NHL goal picks Dec. 2

Best Bet: Kaprizov to score (+123)

Kaprizov scores in bunches, and right now he’s got a red-hot stick.

The winger has a goal in five straight and in six of his last seven. In that span, he’s unsurprisingly leading the Minnesota Wild in the following categories, per Natural Stat Trick:

• Goals (7)
• Shots (34)
• Chances (44)

He’s also second to Matt Boldy in scoring chances, high-danger chances, and xG.

I think both Kaprizov and Boldy will have a field day tonight. Edmonton is a mediocre 11-10-5 with some serious goaltending issues.

-> Bet on Kaprizov and the Wild tonight!

Stuart Skinner, who is expected to start tonight, ranks outside of the top 30 in GAA (3.00) and SV% (.885). He did log a shutout against the Seattle Kraken on Saturday, but he’d allowed 19 goals on 113 shots in the previous four games (0.831 SV%).

The larger body of work is concerning, and I expect Kaprizov and Co. to run wild.

Key stat: Kaprizov ranks fourth in goals scored (17).

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NHL predictions

Caufield to score (+130): Caufield has been touted as having 40-goal upside for a while, but he’s never reached that milestone.

That seems destined to change, barring injury. The Montreal Canadiens winger has tucked 14 goals in 24 games, putting him on pace for a 47-goal campaign.

That would be 10 better than his previous high, which he set last year.

-> Wager on Caufield at NorthStar Bets

Tonight, the Canadiens host an Ottawa Senators team in the same boat as Edmonton: It can’t buy a save.

Linus Ullmark and Leevi Merilainen have identical .874 save percentages. That’s tied for 50th in a 32-team league.

Ullmark is expected to start tonight, and he ranks dead last in goals saved above expected (-9.5), per Money Puck.

NHL goal picks made at 12:52 p.m. ET on Dec. 2, 2025.

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