Category: NHL

Canada and Sweden open up action at the 4 Nations Face-Off on Wednesday.

The latest: Hockey fans are excited for the return of best-on-best international action. Canada enters this contest as a significant favourite but a key member may be out for this tournament. The Swedes have a stacked lineup, too, and could be a plucky underdog in this spot.

Check out the latest Sweden vs. Canada 4 Nations Face-Off odds for Feb. 12.

Sweden vs. Canada 4 Nations Face-Off odds

Canadian hockey fans are keeping close tabs on Sidney Crosby’s status as the tournament nears.

The Pittsburgh Penguins captain and two-time Olympic gold medalist missed his team’s most recent game and hasn’t decided on his participation in the tournament.

Crosby’s absence is significant as this could be his final opportunity to represent Canada in best-on-best international competition.

The Canadians do have enough star power, however, to overcome Crosby’s potential absence. Superstars like Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid alone provide enough offensive power for any lineup in any competition.

Sweden doesn’t have anybody who can match MacKinnon and McDavid offensively, but they do have blueliners that can help make up for that. Erik Karlsson and Rasmus Dahlin are two of the most dangerous offensive defencemen in the league, and they’re more than capable of chipping in and driving the play.

4 Nations Face-Off best bet

Best Bet: Sweden +1.5 (-143)

There’s a decent amount of juice to pay but this wager is sensible for several reasons.

Firstly, there are a lot of unknowns in a tournament like this. The players haven’t spent much time practicing together and team chemistry is difficult to gauge for either side.

Without knowing how each team will gel together, goaltending becomes increasingly important and Sweden holds the edge over Canada between the pipes.

The trio of Linus Ullmark, Jacob Markstrom and Filip Gustavsson carries a distinct advantage over Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill and Sam Montembeault.

Crosby’s injury can’t be ignored, either. The hockey superstar is one of the greatest players of all time and has recorded 58 points in 55 outings this season.

Thirdly, this wager only requires Sweden to keep this contest competitive. A loaded roster featuring players like Filip Forsberg, William Nylander and Victor Hedman should be able to put forward a solid showing as they represent their country.

Key stat: Ullmark and Gustavsson have the best save percentage this season of any goalies in this matchup (.915). Hill has the best save percentage this season of any Canadian netminder (.900).

The Vancouver Canucks host the Toronto Maple Leafs for a Hockey Night in Canada showdown beginning at 7 p.m. ET.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence has been firing on all cylinders during this road trip and I’m backing Matthew Knies to stay hot. On the other end, an embattled and rudderless Elias Pettersson is worth fading.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Canucks props for Feb. 8.

Maple Leafs vs. Canucks props

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Best bet: Knies over 0.5 points (-130)

The Maple Leafs have their swagger back.

Toronto has scored 13 goals during its three-game winning streak and Knies has contributed to five of them. The 22-year-old winger has scored in each game with two assists mixed in.

He’s now found the stat sheet in five of his last six contests, tallying five goals and nine points.

If you’ve been reading my Maple Leafs picks pieces, you know I’ve been rolling with Knies night in and night out — and he’s been delivering.

Playing on Toronto’s top line alongside Auston Matthews and Max Domi is helpful, but playing on the team’s No. 1 power play is even better.

Knies has three power-play points in his last four games and is a strong net-front presence that makes hay while opponents try to close passing lanes for Matthews and William Nylander.

Canucks fans might point to Thatcher Demko’s recent form as a counter to this wager. He’s allowed one goal over his past two starts and appears to be rounding into form.

But that’s a small sample. Demko has an awful .889 save percentage on the season and ranks 44th in goals saved above expected per 60, according to Money Puck.

And if you want to use another small sample, let me point you to Demko’s last two starts against the Leafs:

• Jan. 1, 2024: 4 goals allowed, .913 SV%
• Nov. 11, 2023: 5 goals allowed, .773 SV%

I think Toronto is going to roll over Vancouver and am also playing Maple Leafs moneyline at -134. At least Canucks fans will have a full night ahead of them afterwards.

Key stat: Knies has eight points in his last five games.

Quick picks

Pettersson under 0.5 points (-106): The Petterson-J.T. Miller saga ended with the latter being shipped to the New York Rangers. And with how the two have performed since, you have to wonder if Vancouver made the right decision.

• Pettersson (4 GP): 0 G, 1 A, 5 SOG
• Miller (4 GP): 2 G, 2 A, 10 SOG

Pettersson has been held pointless in three straight games with just two shots on goal.

He has one goal and four assists since Dec. 23 and is tracking toward a career-worst 55-point pace (excluding his 2020-21 season where he played just 26 games).

I’ll happily fade him tonight.

Picks made at 10:45 a.m. ET on 02/08/2025.

Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon might be playing on the same line at the 4 Nations face-off in a few weeks. On Friday, they’re opponents as the Edmonton Oilers host the Colorado Avalanche.

The pregame narrative: Kris Knoblauch shook up Edmonton’s top line on Wednesday, slotting Viktor Arvidsson alongside McDavid and Zach Hyman. I like Arvidsson to record a point and am also backing MacKinnon to clear his shot total.

Check out my Avalanche vs. Oilers props for Feb. 7.

Avalanche vs. Oilers props

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Best bet: Arvidsson to record a point (+115)

This bet isn’t about Arvidsson, it’s about McDavid.

Anything Edmonton’s captain touches turns to gold. Don’t believe me? Just ask Hyman.

The winger never scored more than 41 points across six seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs and is coming off a year where he scored 54 goals — and had 77 points — while playing on the Oilers’ top line.

Hyman has been in a bit of a rut this year but is still riding shotgun with McDavid. Now, Arvidsson is there too.

The Swede immediately cashed in on his opportunity by scoring a goal in a 4-3 win over the Chicago Blackhawks.

This is what Knoblauch had to say:

“I think (Arvidsson) has elevated his game when we moved him to the left side … when you’re playing your off-wing you got different options. It’s not the best fit for every player, but it seems like it’s been a good look for him right now.”

The Avalanche have been on a great defensive run, allowing just 1.60 goals per game in their last five. However, that’s largely been due to the lights-out play of Mackenzie Blackwood, who started last night.

Rookie netminder Trent Miner is projected to make his second start after allowing three goals to the Blackhawks in his NHL debut on Jan. 8.

Key stat: McDavid has generated a 60.41% Corsi rate at 5-on-5 this season. That’s the seventh-best mark among all forwards with more than 100 minutes of ice time, per Natural Stat Trick.

Quick pick

MacKinnon over 3.5 shots (-134): Edmonton doesn’t give up much defensively, allowing the third-fewest chances (53.75) and sixth-fewest shots (26.41) per 60.

But MacKinnon is a special player and I expect a special performance.

Colorado’s top dog is leading the league in points (83) and is third in shots (220). He’s averaging 3.9 shots a night and has cleared this mark in seven of his last nine games.

MacKinnon is 1-1 against this line when facing the Oilers this season, logging seven shots in the first meeting and three in the second (while scoring two goals).

Picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 02/07/2025.

The Toronto Maple Leafs take on the Seattle Kraken on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto rolled through the prairies with a pair of wins against the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames. I expect the Leafs’ offence to stay hot behind Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Kraken for Feb. 6.

Maple Leafs props vs. Kraken

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Best bet: Matthews anytime goalscorer (+100)

Matthews is scoreless in his last four but I can’t see that going on for much longer.

Toronto’s captain had 17 shots in those games and was dominant against the Flames and Oilers. He racked up five assists against his Canadian rivals while generating 1.52 expected goals, the most of any Leaf, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Before his little dry spell, Matthews had scored in five straight games and eight of his last 10.

With Mitch Marner possibly returning, I love the value of this bet. But even if Marner takes another game to recover, this seems like a good price.

The Kraken are a mess defensively, ranking near the bottom of the league in several key defensive metrics:

• 30th in chances/60 (63.47)
• 26th in high-danger chances/60 (11.6)
• 24th in goals/60 (3.16)

Seattle has lost four of its last five games while giving up a total of 20 goals. I expect Matthews to take advantage of a spiralling squad.

Key stat: Matthews has the NHL’s highest goals-per-game average since the start of last season (0.66).

Quick pick

Knies to record a point (-134): I’m going to keep making this bet as long as it’s around this price.

Knies has been a wrecking ball all season and is on a tear over his last five games. He has four goals and eight points in that span, cashing this bet four times.

Skating alongside Matthews (and potentially Marner) is a boon, but Knies is also receiving top power-play time.

He’s recorded a power-play point in three of his last four and goes up against a Kraken team with the 22nd-ranked penalty kill (79.19%).

Picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 02/06/2025.