Category: NHL

Maple Leafs vs. Senators prop picks Game 4: Bet on Matthews and Knies as Toronto looks to sweep

Leafs vs. Senators picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs can sweep the Battle of Ontario on Saturday Night.

The pregame narrative: Back-to-back overtime victories from Toronto have the Ottawa Senators on the brink of elimination. Toronto’s top line has been machine-like, and I expect Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies to help put the final nail in Ottawa’s coffin.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks for Game 4 of the opening round.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks

Best bet: Knies to record a point (-134)

Knies scored his second goal of the series on Thursday, tying the game at one apiece in the second period.

Was it pretty? No. But playoff goals often aren’t glamorous, and playing on the top power-play affords these kinds of opportunities.

We saw Knies score similarly in the series opener, banging home a rebound on the man advantage to close out a 6-2 win.

The 6-foot-3, 227-pound power forward is a moose in front of the net. He’ll continue to get good PP looks as long as Ottawa stays undisciplined.

And with the series practically out of reach, I could see tempers boiling over and a tight whistle from the referees on Saturday.

Knies is a natural threat to produce at 5-on-5 as well, riding shotgun with Matthews and Mitch Marner.

That line leads the Maple Leafs in chances (27), high-danger chances (seven), and goals (three) this series, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Key stat: Knies has registered a point in four of his last five games dating back to the regular season.

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Game 4 prop prediction

Matthews to record an assist (-106): Matthews took a major step back as a scorer this season, finishing the year with 33 goals after burying a league-best 69 in 2023-24.

I won’t blame him too much, though, considering he missed 15 games with a mystery injury that might still be bothering him to some degree. And Toronto’s captain has found other ways to produce, becoming an elite playmaker down the stretch.

Matthews has 24 assists in 30 games since the 4-Nations Face Off, cashing this bet 18 times (60.0%).

He’s logged a helper in every game this series (four total) and has an assist in four straight playoff games dating back to Game 7 against the Boston Bruins last year.

In an ideal world, Matthew will be feeding Knies for a goal, cashing both bets in one go.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators prop picks made at 12:36 p.m. ET 04/25/2025.

Jets vs. Blues Game 3 prop picks: Cole Perfetti primed for another big performance

Jets vs. Blues prop picks

The Winnipeg Jets take a 2-0 series lead on the road to visit the St. Louis Blues.

The pregame narrative: Cole Perfetti is currently breaking out as one of the Jets’ top forwards. I’m backing the newly minted right winger to grab an assist. Jordan Kyrou’s shots prop has my attention, too.

Check out my Jets vs. Blues prop picks for Game 3 of this first-round matchup in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Blues vs. Jets prop picks

Best Bet: Perfetti to score 1+ assists (+180)

The 23-year-old recorded his first career playoff point on Monday, getting the assist on Kyle Connor’s game-winning goal in the third period.

Perfetti had a career year, scoring 50 points while lacing up for the full 82 games.

However, I want to split his season into two to showcase how good he’s been since late January:

  • First 49 games: 25 points
  • Last 33 games: 25 points

As the year carried on, Perfetti found his groove, solidifying a solid floor as a point producer.

In response, Scott Arniel promoted the young gun up to the second line to play alongside Nino Niederreiter and Vladislav Namestnikov.

He also finds himself on the top power-play unit with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. Both of whom finished in the top 17 in the NHL for points.

That puts him in a prime spot to record an assist.

Key stat: Perfetti has 10 points in 12 career games vs. the Blues.

Quick picks

Kyrou over 2.5 shots (-130): I went with this pick for Game 2, and Kyrou finished one shot shy of this mark.

But that won’t discourage me from jumping back on the wagon based on some solid underlying stats.

  • Kyrou led the Blues with 239 shots this season (2.9 per game).
  • He reached this total in nine of his past 11 games, including the playoffs.

He was slightly more productive at home, too. His shots per game inflated to 3.1 when playing in St. Louis.

The Jets averaged the fewest goals against this season (2.32) but the 10th fewest shots (27.2).

Thankfully, Kyrou doesn’t have to beat Connor Hellebuyck to cash this wager. Instead, he only has to pepper a few shots on target in a must-win Game 3.

Blues vs. Jets prop picks made at 4:52 p.m. ET 04/24/2025.

Kings vs. Oilers Game 3 prop picks: Bet on Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman to produce

Kings vs. Oilers prop picks

The Edmonton Oilers look for a spark against the Los Angeles Kings as their series shifts north of the border.

The pregame narrative: This isn’t a must-win for Edmonton, which finds itself down 0-2, but it’s pretty close. I’ve got a pair of plus money plays on Connor McDavid igniting the Oilers’ power play and Zach Hyman finding the stat sheet.

Check out my Kings vs. Oilers prop picks for Game 3 of this first-round matchup.

Kings vs. Oilers prop picks

Best Bet: McDavid 1+ power play points (+120)

Edmonton’s power play was a cheat code last postseason, clicking at a 29.3% rate through Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.

That ranked ninth all-time among playoff teams with 15-plus games played and would have been the best mark of any team during the 2024-25 regular season.

But what about this year? The Oilers are 0-5 on the PP in the playoffs so far, and they ranked 12th on the man advantage during the regular season (23.7%). Not nearly as good.

I don’t expect Edmonton to magically return to last season’s form, but I also don’t expect it to get held off the board forever.

The Oilers will throw everything at the wall on Friday night to get back into this series, and I anticipate them drawing plenty of penalties in the process.

And there’s almost no one better than McDavid to back on this market.

Key stat: McDavid has 92 power-play points in the last two seasons (playoffs included). That ranks third behind Nathan MacKinnon (95) and Nikita Kucherov (103).

Quick picks

Hyman 1+ points (-112): In a perfect world, McDavid links up with Hyman on the power play for a goal. That would be nice, but even if that doesn’t happen, I’m bullish on the winger finding the stat sheet at some point.

Hyman scored a goal playing alongside McDavid and Corey Perry in Game 1 and had some shifts alongside Leon Draisaitl and McDavid in Game 2. The latter line generated a 75.0% Corsi rate, per Natural Stat Trick, and should see more ice together.

McDavid will likely get double-shifted on Friday, meaning Hyman will have ample opportunities playing with the game’s best player even if he’s dropped to the second line.

Hyman has 50 points in 55 playoff games with the Oilers.

Kings vs. Oilers prop picks made at 1:29 p.m. ET 04/24/2025.

Kings vs. Oilers Game 3 prop picks: Bet on Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman to produce

Kings vs. Oilers prop picks

The Edmonton Oilers look for a spark against the Los Angeles Kings as their series shifts north of the border.

The pregame narrative: This isn’t a must-win for Edmonton, which finds itself down 0-2, but it’s pretty close. I’ve got a pair of plus money plays on Connor McDavid igniting the Oilers’ power play and Zach Hyman finding the stat sheet.

Check out my Kings vs. Oilers prop picks for Game 3 of this first-round matchup.

Kings vs. Oilers prop picks

Best Bet: McDavid 1+ power play points (+125)

Edmonton’s power play was a cheat code last postseason, clicking at a 29.3% rate through Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.

That ranked ninth all-time among playoff teams with 15-plus games played and would have been the best mark of any team during the 2024-25 regular season.

But what about this year? The Oilers are 0-5 on the PP in the playoffs so far, and they ranked 12th on the man advantage during the regular season (23.7%). Not nearly as good.

I don’t expect Edmonton to magically return to last season’s form, but I also don’t expect it to get held off the board forever.

The Oilers will throw everything at the wall on Friday night to get back into this series, and I anticipate them drawing plenty of penalties in the process.

And there’s almost no one better than McDavid to back on this market.

Key stat: McDavid has 92 power-play points in the last two seasons (playoffs included). That ranks third behind Nathan MacKinnon (95) and Nikita Kucherov (103).

Embed: #112946

Quick picks

Hyman 1+ points (-124): In a perfect world, McDavid links up with Hyman on the power play for a goal. That would be nice, but even if that doesn’t happen, I’m bullish on the winger finding the stat sheet at some point.

Hyman scored a goal playing alongside McDavid and Corey Perry in Game 1 and had some shifts alongside Leon Draisaitl and McDavid in Game 2. The latter line generated a 75.0% Corsi rate, per Natural Stat Trick, and should see more ice together.

McDavid will likely get double-shifted on Friday, meaning Hyman will have ample opportunities playing with the game’s best player even if he’s dropped to the second line.

Hyman has 50 points in 55 playoff games with the Oilers.

Kings vs. Oilers prop picks made at 1:29 p.m. ET 04/24/2025.

Jets vs. Blues Game 3 prop picks: Cole Perfetti primed for another big performance

Jets vs. Blues prop picks

The Winnipeg Jets take a 2-0 series lead on the road to visit the St. Louis Blues.

The pregame narrative: Cole Perfetti is currently breaking out as one of the Jets’ top forwards. I’m backing the newly minted right winger to find his way on the score sheet. Jordan Kyrou’s shots prop has my attention, too.

Check out my Jets vs. Blues prop picks for Game 3 of this first-round matchup in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Blues vs. Jets prop picks

Best Bet: Perfetti to score 1+ points (+118)

The 23-year-old recorded his first career playoff point on Monday, getting the assist on Kyle Connor’s game-winning goal in the third period.

Perfetti had a career year, scoring 50 points while lacing up for the full 82 games.

However, I want to split his season into two to showcase how good he’s been since late January:

  • First 49 games: 25 points
  • Last 33 games: 25 points

As the year carried on, Perfetti found his groove, solidifying a solid floor as a point producer.

In response, Scott Arniel promoted the young gun up to the second line to play alongside Nino Niederreiter and Vladislav Namestnikov.

He also finds himself on the top power-play unit with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. Both of whom finished in the top 17 in the NHL for points.

Key stat: Perfetti has 10 points in 12 career games vs. the Blues.

Embed: #112914

Quick picks

Kyrou over 2.5 shots (-124): I went with this pick for Game 2, and Kyrou finished one shot shy of this mark.

But that won’t discourage me from jumping back on the wagon based on some solid underlying stats.

  • Kyrou led the Blues with 239 shots this season (2.9 per game).
  • He reached this total in nine of his past 11 games, including the playoffs.

He was slightly more productive at home, too. His shots per game inflated to 3.1 when playing in St. Louis.

The Jets averaged the fewest goals against this season (2.32) but the 10th fewest shots (27.2).

Thankfully, Kyrou doesn’t have to beat Connor Hellebuyck to cash this wager. Instead, he only has to pepper a few shots on target in a must-win Game 3.

Blues vs. Jets prop picks made at 11:07 a.m. ET 04/24/2025.

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Senators vs. Maple Leafs best bets Game 3: Take the over, back defenceman Jake Sanderson

Maple Leafs vs. Senators best bets

The Toronto Maple Leafs can put a stranglehold on the Battle of Ontario as the series shifts to Ottawa.

The pregame narrative: Expect the Senators to throw everything at the wall on Thursday night while facing the prospect of going down 3-0. My best bet for Game 3 is the over, and I’m also looking for Jake Sanderson to be involved offensively.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators best bets for Game 3 of the opening round.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators best bets

Best bet: Over 5.5 goals (-120)

Ottawa has found itself down early in both games.

A quick lead for Toronto might seem nice for this over, but Craig Berube’s side can clog things up and turn the game into a slog when playing from ahead.

We just saw that in Game 2, when the Maple Leafs put things in neutral after going up 2-0 through eight minutes en route to a 3-2 overtime win.

I’m expecting Ottawa to score first, and for Toronto to return in kind. Or at least for the Senators to respond immediately to a Maple Leafs goal.

With Linus Ullmark struggling (.800 SV% through two games, career .876 playoff SV%), the Sens can’t afford to let the game come to them.

If Ottawa gets up early, this could turn into a legit barn-burner. And if the home team is forced to cheat chasing a lead, Toronto could really lay a beating on its rival.

The Maple Leafs scored the seventh-most goals per game during the regular season (3.26) and have a red-hot power play.

Key stat: Toronto went over a 5.5-goal total in 28 of 41 road games this year.

Quick pick

Sanderson over 2.5 shots on goal (+115): I took this bet in Game 1 and it cashed. I’ll gladly go back to the well on Thursday, and here’s why:

  • Toronto had the fourth-worst 5-on-5 Corsi rate (shot attempt differential) in the NHL during the regular season, according to Natural Stat Trick.
  • The Maple Leafs have been out-shot (61-45) and out-chanced (148-95) through two games.

Plenty of these shot attempts are low-quality and coming from the outside or at the point. That’s exactly where Sanderson, Ottawa’s top-scoring defenceman, is firing from.

The 22-year-old led the team in ice time (24:26) and was second in shots (195) during the regular season. He’s played a team-high 54:30 through two games.

Sanderson has logged at least two shots in 12 straight games, clearing this line eight times.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 04/24/2025.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs best bets Game 3: Take the over, back defenceman Sanderson and Rielly

Maple Leafs vs. Senators best bets

The Toronto Maple Leafs can put a stranglehold on the Battle of Ontario as the series shifts to Ottawa.

The pregame narrative: Expect the Senators to throw everything at the wall on Thursday night while facing the prospect of going down 3-0. My best bet for Game 3 is the over, and I’m also looking for Morgan Rielly and Jake Sanderson to be involved offensively.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators best bets for Game 3 of the opening round.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators best bets

Best bet: Over 5.5 goals (-118)

Ottawa has found itself down early in both games.

A quick lead for Toronto might seem nice for this over, but Craig Berube’s side can clog things up and turn the game into a slog when playing from ahead.

We just saw that in Game 2, when the Maple Leafs put things in neutral after going up 2-0 through eight minutes en route to a 3-2 overtime win.

I’m expecting Ottawa to score first, and for Toronto to return in kind. Or at least for the Senators to respond immediately to a Maple Leafs goal.

With Linus Ullmark struggling (.800 SV% through two games, career .876 playoff SV%), the Sens can’t afford to let the game come to them.

If Ottawa gets up early, this could turn into a legit barn-burner. And if the home team is forced to cheat chasing a lead, Toronto could really lay a beating on its rival.

The Maple Leafs scored the seventh-most goals per game during the regular season (3.26) and have a red-hot power play.

Key stat: Toronto went over a 5.5-goal total in 28 of 41 road games this year.

Embed: #112911

Quick picks

Rielly to score 1+ points (+165): Rielly is coming off a dreadful regular season, but the longest-tenured Maple Leaf has a knack for showing up in the postseason.

He’s scored in both games so far and now has a point in 13 of his last 20 postseason games dating back to the 2022-23 season (17 total points).

In the last five postseasons, Rielly has the highest 5-on-5 points per 60 (1.83) of any defenceman with more than 20 games played.

This seems like a great value play to me.

Sanderson over 2.5 shots on goal (+125): I took this bet in Game 1 and it cashed. I’ll gladly go back to the well on Thursday, and here’s why:

  • Toronto had the fourth-worst 5-on-5 Corsi rate (shot attempt differential) in the NHL during the regular season, according to Natural Stat Trick.
  • The Maple Leafs have been out-shot (61-45) and out-chanced (148-95) through two games.

Plenty of these shot attempts are low-quality and coming from the outside or at the point. That’s exactly where Sanderson, Ottawa’s top-scoring defenceman, is firing from.

The 22-year-old led the team in ice time (24:26) and was second in shots (195) during the regular season. He’s played a team-high 54:30 through two games.

Sanderson has logged at least two shots in 12 straight games, clearing this line eight times.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 04/24/2025.

NHL playoff anytime goalscorer picks April 24: Ride with Kirill Kaprizov during hot streak

NHL anytime goal picks

The NHL playoffs roll into Thursday and I have multiple goalscorer picks from the action.

The pregame narrative: Kirill Kaprizov is dominating again for the Minnesota Wild. I’ll back him to keep his momentum flowing with a goal on Thursday. I also have a pick on Brayden Point from the earlier game.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for April 24.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: Kaprizov anytime goalscorer (+115)

Kaprizov has been an elite goalscorer since entering the NHL in 2020. This season, he scored a career-low 25 goals, but he only played 41 games due to injury.

He scored 40-plus goals in each of the three previous seasons and has scored 0.58 goals per game throughout his career.

For context, all-time leading goalscorer Alex Ovechkin has averaged 0.60 goals per game during his career.

Kaprizov is the X-factor on the Wild’s roster. The team went 25-13-3 with the electric winger in the lineup and 20-17-4 without him.

And that has transferred into the postseason. The Wild stole Game 2 in Vegas behind two goals and an assist from “Kirill the Thrill.” He also had two helpers in the opening contest.

If Kaprizov was healthy for the whole season, he undoubtedly would’ve finished near the top of the NHL for scoring. His 0.61 goals per game ranked third behind only Ovechkin and Leon Draisaitl.

Key stat: Including the playoffs, Kaprizov has four goals in three games vs. the Golden Knights this season.

NHL prop predictions

Point anytime goalscorer (+162): Point has quietly been one of the NHL’s top producers over recent years.

The centreman has recorded at least 40 goals and a point-per-game pace over the past three seasons.

His 42-goal campaign in 2024-25 was actually a down year compared to his 46 and 51 goals the years prior.

But he still ranked sixth in the NHL in goals.

The Tampa Bay Lightning lost their opening game to the Florida Panthers, 6-2, but Point potted one of his team’s two goals.

Tampa ranked first in the NHL in scoring (3.56 goals per game), so an uptick in offence will be expected in what should be considered a must-win game at home.

The Panthers got some key pieces back (e.g. Matthew Tkachuk) but struggled down the stretch, going 3-7 and allowing 2.9 goals per game over their final 10 games.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET on 04/24/2025.

NHL playoff anytime goalscorer picks April 24: Ride with Kirill Kaprizov during hot streak

NHL anytime goal picks

The NHL playoffs roll into Thursday and I have multiple goalscorer picks from the action.

The pregame narrative: Kirill Kaprizov is dominating again for the Minnesota Wild. I’ll back him to keep his momentum flowing with a goal on Thursday. I also have a pick on Brayden Point from the earlier game.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for April 24.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: Kaprizov anytime goalscorer (+125)

Kaprizov has been an elite goalscorer since entering the NHL in 2020. This season, he scored a career-low 25 goals, but he only played 41 games due to injury.

He scored 40-plus goals in each of the three previous seasons and has scored 0.58 goals per game throughout his career.

For context, all-time leading goalscorer Alex Ovechkin has averaged 0.60 goals per game during his career.

Kaprizov is the X-factor on the Wild’s roster. The team went 25-13-3 with the electric winger in the lineup and 20-17-4 without him.

And that has transferred into the postseason. The Wild stole Game 2 in Vegas behind two goals and an assist from “Kirill the Thrill.” He also had two helpers in the opening contest.

If Kaprizov was healthy for the whole season, he undoubtedly would’ve finished near the top of the NHL for scoring. His 0.61 goals per game ranked third behind only Ovechkin and Leon Draisaitl.

Key stat: Including the playoffs, Kaprizov has four goals in three games vs. the Golden Knights this season.

Embed: #112903

NHL prop predictions

Point anytime goalscorer (+145): Point has quietly been one of the NHL’s top producers over recent years.

The centreman has recorded at least 40 goals and a point-per-game pace over the past three seasons.

His 42-goal campaign in 2024-25 was actually a down year compared to his 46 and 51 goals the years prior.

But he still ranked sixth in the NHL in goals.

The Tampa Bay Lightning lost their opening game to the Florida Panthers, 6-2, but Point potted one of his team’s two goals.

Tampa ranked first in the NHL in scoring (3.56 goals per game), so an uptick in offence will be expected in what should be considered a must-win game at home.

The Panthers got some key pieces back (e.g. Matthew Tkachuk) but struggled down the stretch, going 3-7 and allowing 2.9 goals per game over their final 10 games.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 04/24/2025.

Leafs vs. Senators prop picks Game 3: Target Auston Matthews and Brady Tkachuk

Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs hold a 2-0 series lead in the playoffs for the first time since 2002.

The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews is without a goal so far, but I predict that will change in Game 3. My best bet for the game, however, is on Brady Tkachuk.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators prop picks for Game 3 of the opening round.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks

Best bet: Tkachuk over 3.5 shots (-143)

Toronto is up 2-0, but the team has been heavily outshot in this series.

  • Game 1: Ottawa outshot Toronto, 33-24
  • Game 2: Ottawa outshot Toronto, 28-21

Tkachuk easily cleared this line in both games, recording five shots in each. Now, the Senators return home, where they are 27-11-3 this season.

The Leafs allowed the eighth-most shots per game this year (29.3). Even though a lot of those are low-quality chances, the result is the same for this wager.

Tkachuk played north of 20 minutes in Game 2, which is well above his average (18:14).

Put it all together, and you’ve got a handful of compelling reasons why Ottawa’s captain should continue to generate offence.

Key stat: Tkachuk led the league with 4.11 shots per game during the regular season.

Game 3 prop prediction

Matthews anytime goalscorer (+125): I think Leafs fans would agree that it’s time for Matthews to get on the board as a scorer.

Although he only has two goals in his last 10 games vs. Ottawa, this is a matchup the Leafs’ captain has historically dominated.

  • Matthews has played 37 games against the Sens in his career and has 25 goals and 26 assists in those meetings.
  • He has 102 goals since the beginning of last season, which leads the NHL.

It’s not that Matthews hasn’t been productive. He has three assists and nine shots through Games 1-2.

He should be out there for 20-plus minutes with some added opportunities on a red-hot power play that’s 4-for-6 in this series.

It’s only a matter of time before Matthews is on the receiving end of an assist rather than vice versa.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators prop picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET 04/23/2025.