Category: NHL

Things are starting to get messy as the Battle of Ontario moves back to Ottawa for Game 6 on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: The Toronto Maple Leafs had a 3-0 series lead but have let things slip away. I predict another big performance from Ottawa Senators’ Jake Sanderson in his team’s pursuit to even things up. My best bet, however, is on John Tavares.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks for Game 6 of the opening round.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks

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Best Bet: Tavares over 2.5 shots (+130)

Tavares was able to clear this total in his third straight game, even though the Leafs were shut out in Game 5.

That makes the former captain 4-1 against this wager in the playoffs.

The Leafs have lost the last two games, but the good news for this pick is that they outshot Ottawa in the losses.

After totalling 65 shots in the first three games, Toronto combined for 63 shots in Games 4 and 5.

Tavares skated for 19:13 on Tuesday, which was his highest minutes load of the series. That uptick should continue with Craig Berube looking to roll his top guys more as the games get more important.

Key stat: Tavares ranks second on the Leafs with 16 shots in this series.

Game 5 prop prediction

Sanderson over 0.5 points (-118): The 22-year-old defenceman has been Ottawa’s best player in this series.

He’s averaging north of 27 minutes on ice, and he played a major role in the Senators’ shutout win in Game 5.

Sanderson’s best performance, though, was in Game 4, when he played over 30 minutes and scored the game-winning goal in overtime to go along with an earlier assist.

That makes Sanderson 2-3 against this line, but I can’t help but side with his growing momentum as Ottawa continues to play with its back against the wall.

Sanderson had a career-high 57 points this season, which ranked 10th among NHL defencemen.

He’ll be on the ice for around half the game and is an elite playmaker from the back end.

If the Leafs have another poor performance, look for Sanderson and Co. to take advantage at home.

The Senators scored more goals per game at home this season (3.37) than on the road (2.54).

Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks made at 4:27 p.m. ET 04/30/2025.

The Montreal Canadiens look to fend off elimination against the Washington Capitals in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Montreal has been competitive in this series despite being down 3-1. Lane Hutson is a huge reason why, so I’ll back the rookie defenceman to find the score sheet. For Washington, I have a plus-money pick on Jakob Chychrun.

Check out my Canadiens vs. Capitals prop picks for Game 5 of the opening round.

Canadiens vs. Capitals picks

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Best bet: Hutson over 0.5 points (-143)

It doesn’t happen often where a newcomer is arguably the most important blue-liner on a playoff team.

But that’s certainly the case for Hutson. He’s averaging over 24 minutes of ice time and has five points in four games (3-1 against this wager).

The Habs aren’t overstepping, either. This is a truly special talent. He recorded the fourth-most points ever by a rookie defenceman this season (66) — and the most in 35-plus years.

Montreal’s power play is firing at a 38.5% rate through four games and Hutson is the quarterback of the top unit.

He plays almost half the game and is a special passer. Assist opportunities should continue to come early and often in Game 5.

Key stat: Hutson ranks third among defencemen in the playoffs for on-ice expected goals per 60 minutes (5.31), according to Money Puck.

Game 5 prop prediction

Chychrun over 0.5 points (+110): Chychrun hasn’t been as effective as his counterpart, but he’s starting to come alive.

He has points in back-to-back games and is coming off his biggest workload (26:15) in Game 4.

The extra playing time didn’t hinder the blue-liner as he had an assist and a +3 rating. If he’s on the ice a bunch, and for a lot of the Capitals’ team success, I love the value on his points prop at plus money.

Chyrchun leads all skaters in this series with a plus/minus rating of +5.

Canadiens vs. Capitals prop picks made at 11:43 p.m. ET 04/30/2025.

I’ve got a goalscorer pick from all three NHL playoff games on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals are up 3-1 and heading back home with a chance to send the Montreal Canadiens packing. Take Ovi to score while backing Kyle Connor and Jake Guentzel later on in the evening.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for April 30.

NHL anytime goal picks

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Best Bet: Ovechkin to score (+105)

An early goal from Ovechkin would send the Capital One Arena into a frenzy. Plus, it would cash this bet without worry.

The game is long, however, and Washington’s captain is still one of the best goal scorers in the NHL at the age of 39.

Ovechkin missed 17 games recovering from an injury but still scored 44 goals which equalled the second most per game in the league (0.68).

That average is Ovechkin’s highest since his 48-goal campaign in 2019-20.

He carried that momentum into the postseason, scoring two goals in the opening game of this series. Overall, he’s 2-2 against this wager.

Montreal’s conceded three or more goals in every game so far, so I like Ovechkin’s chances of getting on the board against a weaker defence.

Key stat: The Habs allowed the 11th most goals (3.18) and 10th most shots (29.1) per game this season.

NHL prop predictions

Guentzel to score (+155): Guentzel leads his team and ranks 11th in the NHL with 2.3 expected goals in these playoffs.

He’s been hugely effective in this series, tallying five points (two goals) through four games. He has the trust of coach Jon Cooper in big moments, playing over 24 minutes in Game 4.

The stakes only get higher as the Tampa Bay Lightning need a win on Wednesday to stay alive in this series.

I’ll take some nice value on a proven career playoff performer coming off a 41-goal season.

Guentzel has 40 goals in 73 playoff games.

Connor to score (+125): The Winnipeg Jets looked in control of their series with the St. Louis Blues, but the underdogs have stormed back to tie things at two apiece.

Winnipeg’s top scorer held his end of the bargain, though. Connor is 3-1 against this line and has both game-winning goals in the pair of wins.

Connor had 41 goals and a career-best 97 points this season.

The Jets have scored seven times at home and only three times on the road in this series, so expect an uptick in offence for Winnipeg.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 1:49 p.m. ET on 04/29/2025.