Category: Soccer

It’s already Matchday 3 in the UEFA Champions League

Pregame narrative: A few tasty matchups make the headlines this week. Borussia Dortmund travels to Real Madrid in a rematch of last season’s final, while Barcelona hosts Bayern Munich in a battle of giants.

Check out the best Champions League picks for the upcoming week.

Champions League picks

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Prediction: Barcelona to beat Bayern Munich
When: Oct. 23: 3:00 p.m.

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Barcelona bounced back from a Matchday 1 loss to Monaco to throttle BSC Young Boys 5-0 in their second fixture.

Robert Lewandowski spearheads the Barca attack. He’s scored 13 goals over his first 11 appearances to begin the season, lifting the Catalans to the highest goal total in La Liga (28) through nine fixtures.

Lewandowski will shoulder a heavier burden in the weeks ahead, as Ferran Torres and Lamine Yamal each sustained hamstring injuries and are unlikely to play.

Bayern Munich has stumbled after winning its first five matches (all competitions) to begin the season, going winless in three successive fixtures before the international break.

Focal point Harry Kane has scored nine goals and assisted four times over his first nine appearances and Jamal Musiala should be ready to start following a minor injury after missing the league match just before the break.

The tussle between two of Europe’s top clubs which share a total of 11 Champions League trophies will feature top talent and likely be decided on the margins.

Barcelona has the fervour of Camp Nou at its back and is in better form. Expect Hansi Flick’s side to exert control through midfielders Frenkie de Jong and Pedri to overrun the Bayern defensive lines.

Champions League picks: Take the over with Madrid and Dortmund

Prediction: Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund: Over 3.5 goals
When: Oct. 22: 3:00 p.m.

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Real Madrid is looking to rebound from a disappointing 1-0 loss against Lille on Matchday 2.

Playing at home, Madrid hopes to have increased control in the midfield that would allow Federico Valverde and Jude Bellingham the freedom to make charging runs forward.

Kylian Mbappe has scored six goals and assisted once over his first 10 Real Madrid appearances but Los Blancos have been held to one or fewer goals in four of their first 11.

Conversely, Borussia Dortmund has been held to one or fewer goals in just two of its first nine matches.

With Karim Adeyemi sidelined, the capable Serhou Guirassy will lead the attack. Guirassy scored his first three career UCL goals this season in just two appearances after scoring 28 goals for Stuttgart during the 2023/2024 season before moving to Dortmund.

Each squad can threaten in possession or on the counterattack. The absence of Dani Carvajal for the rest of the season combined with other defensive injuries could open the door for Dortmund’s attack to expose Real Madrid’s depth.

Matchday 3 SGP

Prediction: RB Leipzig and Liverpool to tie and Under 2.5 goals
When: Sept. 23: 3:00 p.m.

Liverpool has started life positively under new boss Arne Slot, as evidenced by its position atop the Premier League.

Slot has given the midfield ranks of Ryan Gravenberch, Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister new life and purpose, playing with more control and leaving two players in deep-lying positions while attacking.

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After hosting Chelsea on Sunday, there’s a chance Slot opts for some rotation. Through the opening months under Slot, Liverpool has limited opposing teams to minimal opportunities, highlighting the Dutchman’s preference towards stability in formation over fluidity in attack.

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RB Leipzig has the best defensive record in Germany, allowing just two goals through its first six matches.

Leipzig’s defence allows midfield maestro Xavi Simons to spring the likes of Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda on the attack. Sesko and Openda account for the majority of Leipzig’s goals as the two strikers in a somewhat fluid formation.

Defender David Raum will not be available for the match after undergoing ankle surgery, something Leipzig likely schemed around during the international break.

After a difficult domestic test, expect Liverpool to employ a conservative game plan that will deploy a semi-rotated squad after a quick turnaround. Leipzig’s stout defence and pragmatic build-up set the stage for a cagey affair that could be decided by narrow margins.

Player to pop: Viktor Gyokeres

Sporting Lisbon’s Viktor Gyokeres has yet to find a defensive unit or game plan with the audacity to stifle his attacking prowess.

In addition to scoring his first career Champions League goal in Matchday 1, Gyokeres scored 11 goals in his first eight domestic matches.

With Pedro Goncalves potentially returning for the match and Gyokeres in other-worldly form, expect the Lisbon attack to pin the Sturm Graz squad deep in their half while creating opportunities for their star striker.

The Nations League is back this week.

Pregame narrative: Players around the world return to their countries for the international break and we’ve got three picks for Matchday 3 of the Nations League. Back Portugal and England to pick up points over Poland and Greece.

Check out the best Nations League picks for the upcoming action from Oct. 10-12.

Nations League picks

Full Nations League betting markets

Prediction: Portugal to beat Poland
When: Oct. 12: 2:45 p.m.

Portugal has bounced back strong following its quarterfinal loss in the European Championship. It has two consecutive Nations League victories over Scotland and Croatia and sits atop League A Group 1 with six points.

Portugal boasts some of the best attacking talent in the world. Former EPL teammates Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes have combined to score three of Portugal’s four Nations League goals.

In those two wins, Portugal possessed the ball at a 59% rate and peppered the net with 41 shots (13 on target).

Poland has begun Nations League play sporting a 5-3-2 formation in each match, searching for the right partnership for star striker Robert Lewandowski.

After a cagey 1-0 defeat against Croatia in its first match, Poland squeaked by Scotland 3-2 on the backs of two goals from the penalty spot. The Polish were unable to exert a modicum of control in either match, garnering just 39 percent of the ball versus Croatia and 41 percent against Scotland.

A midfielder has scored all three goals Poland has conceded in the Nations League.

Portugal must travel with a quality performance in their luggage to overcome Poland in Warsaw.

But Portugal has shown strength in the areas Poland has been vulnerable and that’s reason enough to take them at close odds.

Expect Portugal to control the match from the whistle. And bank on at least one goal contribution from Fernandes, Bernardo Silva and its midfield.

Nations League picks: Take the over

Prediction: Turkey vs. Montenegro over 3.5 goals
When: Oct. 11: 2:45 p.m.

Turkey sits atop League B Group 4 with four points ahead of Wales on goal difference, having drawn versus the Welsh.

Young Real Madrid midfielder Arda Guler dictates play for the Turks in the middle of the park with supporting play from Hakan Calhanoglu. Left winger Muhammed Kerem Akturkoglu netted a hat trick in their most recent 3-1 victory over Iceland.

The Montenegrins have scored once in their two Nations League defeats and are in last in the group standings. Driton Camaj scored Montenegro’s only goal in a 2-1 loss to Iceland.

Montenegro has had opportunities to do more but is struggling to finish clinically. Through two matches, it possessed 55 percent of the ball and attempted 32 shots (nine on target).

Turkey should be confident in its ability to score, considering the talent it boasts across Europe’s top leagues.

Stevan Jovetic, former Manchester City and Inter Milan attacker, will lead a Montenegro attack capable of challenging the Turkish net. Expect goals from both sides in what should be a back-and-forth contest.

Matchday 3 SGP

Prediction: England to beat Greece and over 2.5 goals
When: Oct. 10: 2:45 p.m.

England has performed well in its two Nations League matches under interim manager Lee Carsley, defeating Finland and Ireland each by a 2-0 score.

With England filling the attacking ranks with on-form players like Cole Palmer, who has six goals and five assists over his seven Premier League starts, England has the horsepower to overrun the Greek backline.

As usual, Harry Kane spearheads the attack. The star has scored nine goals in eight appearances for Bayern Munich to begin the season.

Greece has had an impressive opening round of fixtures, defeating both Finland and Ireland by an aggregate score of 5-0. It earned six points and tops the group on goal difference.

Panathinaikos striker Fotis Ioannidis has showcased his ability over the two victories, scoring three goals from Greece’s 19 shots (nine on target).

The Greek defence is led by Liverpool fullback Kosta Tsimikas and West Ham United defender Konstantinos Mavropanos. Though it’s allowed just two shots on target in group play, Greece will face an entirely different animal versus England.

England is reasonably favoured to win in front of the home crowd at Wembley. While it should be an entertaining affair, the Three Lions’ talent should reign supreme.

Player to pop: Deniz Undav

Germany faces an inferior opponent on Oct. 11 when it travels to tussle with Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The Germans are tied atop League A Group 3 with the Netherlands, while Bosnia and Herzegovina is at the bottom with one point.

Undav has been on an incredible run of form for VfB Stuttgart. Over his last six appearances (five starts) in all competitions, Undav has attempted 25 shots (12 on target) and scored five times. The striker netted a goal in Germany’s most recent Nations League fixture.

German star forward Kai Havertz has carried a heavy load for Arsenal in EPL and Champions League play. It could lead to Undav having an integral role in the German attack versus a potentially porous Bosnia and Herzegovina backline.

The Champions League is back for another round of games.

The pregame narrative: On Tuesday, Arsenal hosts PSG in what’s debatedly the biggest fixture on Matchday 2. I’m betting on the Gunners to win and am taking the under when Juventus and RB Leipzig meet the following day.

Check out the best Champions League picks.

Champions League picks

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Best Bet: Arsenal to win (-136)

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Arsenal advanced to the quarterfinals of the Champions League last year for the first time since 2009-10, and I expect Mikel Arteta’s squad to build off that success.

The Gunners’ UCL opener was an uneventful scoreless draw against Atalanta but this is a nice spot for them to rebound.

To be fair, they already rebounded with a 5-1 win over Bolton in the FA Cup and a 4-2 win over Leicester City in the Premier League, while also drawing Manchester City 2-2 in a game they probably should have won.

Arsenal is playing fantastic ball right now and is borderline untouchable at the Emirates.

The team is 22-5-3 at home across all competitions in the last two seasons. That includes a 4-1-0 record in the Champions League.

Martin Odegaard remains sidelined but Riccardo Calafiori, Mikel Merino and Takehiro Tomiyasu are all tracking to return from injury, which is huge. Also, Ousmane Dembele will be out for the Parisians and Kylian Mbappe is no longer with the team after joining Real Madrid.

PSG still has some star power but is nowhere near the heights it was a few years ago. This shouldn’t be an issue for Arsenal.

Key stat: Arsenal outscored opponents 15-2 at home in the Champions League last year.

Quick pick

RB Leipzig/Juventus under 2.5 goals (-107): Juventus has cleared this total on its own in two of its last three games, netting a 3-0 win over Genoa in Seria A and a 3-1 win over PSV on Matchday 1 of the Champions League.

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But I don’t think goals will come that easily against RB Leipzig and am very bullish on Juve’s defence holding strong.

Thiago Motta has done wonders in his first year as manager, as Juve hasn’t allowed a single goal across six Serie A games but is 3-3-0 thanks to three scoreless draws.

The squad is scoring more lately but Leipzig is a great defensive side, too.

It has allowed just two goals through six Bundesliga games, which is the fewest in the league. Atletico Madrid did beat Leipzig, 2-1, on Matchday 1 but that was contested in Spain’s capital.

Marco Rose’s side should tighten up back home.

Picks made at 12:39 p.m. on 09/30/24.

It’s a busy weekend across soccer with another international break looming.

Pregame narrative: The Champions League has begun, too, making teams’ schedules even more congested. Here, we’ll look at one upset pick from each of the following leagues: EPL, Bundesliga, and Ligue 1.

Check out the best three soccer upset picks for the upcoming week.

Soccer upset picks

EPL prediction: Brighton (2-3-1) over Tottenham (3-1-2)
When: Oct. 6: 11:30 a.m. ET

Brighton’s adaptive and disciplined style under new manager Fabian Hurzeler has become a problem for teams early in the season, beating the likes of Manchester United and drawing with Arsenal.

It has controlled the ball well in most situations and its average possession per match is at nearly 60 percent. Prior to Saturday’s mistake-heavy game against Chelsea, it often led to minimal chances for opposing teams, ranking near the top of the league in terms of expected goals allowed.

Tottenham has stayed much the same from last campaign, with a high-pressing team and an always-attacking mentality being the building blocks of Ange Postecoglou’s tactics.

The Spurs are producing plenty of opportunities, but that hasn’t shown up in actual goals, which is the most important thing.

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Helping Brighton, Tottenham had trips to Manchester United and Ferencvaros before this match. Brighton is home, rested and in a great spot for three points if Tottenham can’t convert its opportunities, which has been its problem in almost every match in the early season.

Brighton will hope to make the most of what will be limited chances, similar to its win against Manchester United when it bagged a late winner despite having less of the ball.

Also important to winning this game will be to reduce mistakes, something that may have given the Seagulls nightmares after Cole Palmer’s four-goal performance.

Bundesliga upset pick

Prediction: Union Berlin (2-2-1) over Borussia Dortmund (3-1-1)
When: Oct. 5: 9:30 a.m. ET

Union Berlin has been one of the strongest defensive teams in the Bundesliga to begin the campaign, a far cry from its awful defensive form last season.

Already with a clean sheet at RB Leipzig, it seems ready to contend for a European spot again.

Berlin has been mostly comfortable playing without the ball, so against a highly possessive Borussia Dortmund squad, it could succeed if able to keep BVB at bay and not allow many touches around the box.

Dortmund has had an up-and-down start to their season and the recent 5-1 loss to Stuttgart showed it at its worst.

Even last week, BVB went down two goals to lowly Bochum before making a change and ultimately winning 4-2 with three second-half goals. Of course, that game was at home. This one is in Berlin and they won’t have the Yellow Wall to cheer them on in case they go down a goal again.

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Playing on the road, anything can happen, and then you throw in Tuesday’s Champions League match for Dortmund, home against Celtic, which means rotation is always possible.

Union aren’t exactly contending for a top-four spot like they did two seasons ago, but their ability to defend in front of the net should prove key against top teams in the league like Dortmund. Playing at home, three points will be possible, especially against a team that is struggling to keep clean sheets.

Soccer upset picks: Ligue 1

Prediction: Nantes over Lyon
When: Oct. 6: 9:00 a.m. ET

Nantes has been one of the surprise teams to start the Ligue 1 season with the recent loss to St. Etienne being the early blemish on its record.

The team’s success has been fueled by a stout defence that breaks on a quick counter with pace in the attack, conceding less than one goal per match in the early stages. In this spot, it faces a Lyon team that’s struggled on both ends of the pitch, creating the perfect cocktail for an upset on the road.

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Lyon has had maybe the toughest opening schedule which includes games against Marseille, Monaco and Lens, so its struggles can be attributed to that. Still, it is allowing goals in bunches and has already been held scoreless multiple times.

Making matters more difficult, Lyon played at Rangers on Thursday in the Europa League, so it could have some tired legs, something Nantes won’t have to worry about.

If Lyon is a bit slow, that could be the perfect opening for Nantes to steal a point or three.

Player to pop: Vinicius Junior

Vinicius is in a great spot to produce ahead of the international break, home against a defence-optional Villarreal team.

Kylian Mbappe is likely to remain out due to injury, which should mean more opportunities for Vinicius on the left wing. Villarreal has already allowed five goals to Barcelona and three to Celta Vigo, so its backline hasn’t had the most success in opening the campaign.

Vinicius has had a decent start to the season playing alongside Mbappe and will be first up if Real Madrid gets another penalty kick on Saturday.

And even without Mbappe, Real Madrid isn’t lacking talent, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team rack up goals in this spot. If that’s the case, Vinicius seems most likely to score or assist coming in off his favoured left wing.

I’m backing two home sides in the Premier League this weekend.

The pregame narrative: Manchester City host Arsenal to wrap up the weekend’s action and I’m expecting the Sky Blues to take three points from their title rival. Elsewhere, bet on Liverpool to run up the score at Anfield.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 5 picks.

EPL Matchday 5 picks

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Best Bet: Manchester City to win (-124)

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We’re only a handful of games into the season but this match has massive title implications.

Arsenal was runner-up to Man City in each of the last two seasons, finishing two points behind the Sky Blues last year and five points back the year prior.

Right now, only two points separate England’s top two clubs, and City has the lead yet again.

Increasing that gap will be massive in Pep Guardiola’s quest for a sixth straight Premiership and I say his side gets the job done. Man City’s 11 goals scored are the most in the league, as is its +8 goal differential. It has won three of four games by two-plus goals.

Arsenal is 3-0-1 and most recently eked out a win against Tottenham in the North London Derby. But the Gunners only had 37% possession in that game and were out-shot, 15-7.

Martin Ødegaard missed the derby with an injury and will also be out on Sunday. On the other side, Kevin de Bruyne is likely sidelined after picking up an injury in the Champions League midweek.

Both players are instrumental in their respective midfield and I’m fine to call that a wash.

With that said, how can I bet against the reigning champs at the Etihad where they’re 16-5-0 since the start of last season?

Key stat: Manchester City had won eight straight Premier League home fixtures against Arsenal before drawing, 0-0, last season.

Quick pick

Liverpool over 2.5 goals (-122): Liverpool’s last Premier League match didn’t go as planned. The Reds lost 1-0 to Nottingham Forest as massive favourites at Anfield.

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But outside of that shocking result, things have been smooth sailing for Arne Slot in his first year as manager.

Liverpool won each of its previous three EPL fixtures by a combined score of 7-0. That includes a 3-0 drumming of Manchester United at Old Trafford. It also won its first Champions League fixture of the year, 3-1, against AC Milan.

Back home, against a middling Bournemouth side, I expect another offensive explosion.

Picks made at 2:32 p.m. on 09/19/24.

The Champions League has finally returned.

Pregame narrative: Matchday 1 begins on Tuesday, September 17 and runs through Thursday, with all 36 teams getting in on the action. Gone is the group stage, replaced with a re-vamped “league stage” where every team plays eight times before being seeded for the knockout round.

Check out the best Champions League picks for the upcoming week.

Champions League picks

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Prediction: Leverkusen vs. Feyenoord: Over 3.5 total goals
When: Sept. 19: 12:45 p.m.

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Leverkusen has had no trouble scoring in its opening three matches, similar to how it closed last season.

All nine goals scored have come against sturdy opposition in Leipzig, Monchengladbach and Hoffenheim. Despite the scoring, it had some defensive lapses themselves which could lead to another high-scoring game in the midweek.

Feyenoord has scored nine goals in its four league matches and maybe most importantly, held onto striker Santiago Gimenez, who was on the radar of Nottingham Forest during the transfer window.

It has largely the same side that came up short in the Champions League group stages last season when it scored in all but one of six matches, bagging nine in total.

Both teams have plenty of attacking talent and this has the makings of an up-and-down Champions League contest between two sides that have never played each other.

Leverkusen may control possession, but Feyenoord has the speedsters to score once or twice on the counter, which could lead to a high-scoring UEFA match.

Champions League picks: Back BVB

Prediction: Dortmund over Club Brugge
When: Sept. 18: 3:00 p.m.

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This isn’t a shock on paper with Dortmund clearly the stronger team coming off last season’s run to the Champions League final.

It has started the season with two wins and a draw, producing 42 shots in those three matches while controlling more than 60 percent of possession. With a seemingly deeper team following the additions of Serhou Guirassy at forward and Waldemar Anton on the back line, Dortmund seems primed for another Champions League run.

Club Brugge had a shaky start to their campaign, but it’s stabilized and won its last four in league play, including back-to-back 3-0 victories.

Brugge’s biggest issue Wednesday will be defending against the quick attack of Dortmund with speedsters like Donyell Malen, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and Karim Adeyemi all able to score off the counter in a matter of seconds.

Keeping clean sheets in the Belgian league is nice, but the Dortmund attacking line is another level and is plenty in form, scoring three goals in the first half last Friday against Heidenheim.

While this match is in Bruges, the away team will be well represented with Dortmund only a four-hour drive away.

It’s a step up in competition for Brugge and after missing out on the Champions League last season, this will be a tough spot to overcome. At close to even odds, Dortmund is a solid play as a road favourite.

Matchday 1 SGP

Prediction: Liverpool to beat AC Milan and Liverpool over 1.5 goals
When: Sept. 17: 3:00 p.m.

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Liverpool opened the season well under new boss Arne Slot, highlighted by a massive 3-0 win at Manchester United before the international break.

The transition from former manager Jurgen Klopp has been seamless at times, as Slot adopted similar tactics on both ends of the pitch, though some issues brewed up in Saturday’s home loss to Nottingham Forest.

On the bright side, this is a bounce-back spot for Liverpool coming off a disheartening loss in which it controlled the match.

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It hasn’t been as pretty for Milan, but it had no trouble dispatching Venezia over the weekend. It secured its first clean sheet in eight Serie A matches, something that’ll be a bit more difficult in this spot, as Liverpool is a bit more threatening than Venezia.

Playing in Milan in the Champions League is never an easy task, but Liverpool has an endless array of talent and will be looking to pounce on a struggling defensive unit.

Liverpool is favoured for a reason and unless something changes defensively, the likes of Mohamed Salah and Co. could be headed for numerous goals and an important three points to open the Champions League.

Player to pop: Harry Kane

Bayern Munich has a fairly easy matchup in their Champions League opener against Dinamo Zagreb and is one of the biggest favourites on the slate.

Kane should have plenty of chances to impose his mark, especially as the top scorer in Europe after winning the European Golden Shoe last season with 36 goals.

Through the opening three Bundesliga matches, he has four goals from 14 shots and two assists on eight chances created. In last season’s Champions League, he had 12 goal contributions in 12 appearances, posting only three games without a contribution.

Zagreb is running through the Croatian league, but this is an extreme step up in competition for its first match, especially playing in Munich.

In the Champions League two seasons ago, Zagreb managed four points from six matches, allowing 11 goals in those contests. Kane figures to be the prime benefactor in a great matchup for Bayern with multiple goal contributions a good bet.