Category: Soccer

This week’s Champions League picks feature one home and one away side.

The pregame narrative: Paris Saint-Germain is in danger of missing out on the knockout rounds but I think it can get things going against a struggling Manchester City side. Also, back PSV Eindhoven to pick up three points when they travel to Serbia to take on Red Star Belgrade.

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Best Bet: PSG draw no bet (-129)

It’s been a tale of two seasons for PSG.

The Parisians are unbeaten in Ligue 1, sporting a stellar 14-4-0 record and a +32 goal differential. Things haven’t gone nearly as well in the Champions League, though, as the squad currently sits 25th at 2-1-3.

But I don’t think they’re playing as poorly as that record suggests.

• PSG lost two away fixtures to Arsenal and Bayern Munich, which are tough matchups for any team.
  
• Its other UCL loss came at home to Atletico Madrid, in a game where PSG generated 1.4 more expected goals than its counterparts.
  
• PSG’s defence has been stellar this tournament, only allowing six goals and 4.4 xG (the fewest of any team).

Scoring in the Champions League has been the problem for Luis Enrique’s side but I’m confident that’ll change on Wednesday.

PSG has won all four of its fixtures in 2025 while scoring nine goals. More importantly, it’s playing a Manchester City team devastated by injuries on the defensive end.

Rodri is leaving a Ballon d’Or-sized hole in the midfield and John Stones is missing from the back line.

The Citizens have either won or drawn six straight matches in all competitions but against awful opponents. Before that, they were 1-2-9 in their previous 12.

Key stat: Manchester City has lost its last two UCL road fixtures by a combined score of 6-1.

Quick picks

PSV moneyline (-124): The Rajko Mitić Stadium is a hostile environment for any away side but Red Star’s lineup doesn’t pack as big of a punch as its fans do.

• Belgrade is leading the Serbian SuperLiga table at 19-1-0 but is a horrible 1-0-5 in Champions League play.
  
• It has conceded the third-most goals (19) and the fourth-most expected goals (13.6), according to FBRef.

PSV also tops its domestic table, leading Eredivisie with a 15-1-3 record. But Peter Bosz’s side has faired better in European play, sporting a 2-2-2 record while conceding just eight goals.

The Dutchmen are currently sitting on the playoff bubble and have a tough fixture against Liverpool up next. I expect them to throw everything at getting three points on the road here.

Picks made at 3:00 p.m. on 01/19/25.

I’ve got two bets for this action-packed weekend in the Premier League.

The pregame narrative: I spot value in backing Fulham to secure a road victory over bottom-feeding Leicester City. After that, Ipswich Town hosts Manchester City, and I expect both teams to get on the scoresheet.

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Best Bet: Fulham to win (-107)

This is a prime bounce-back spot for the Cottagers.

Clumsy errors from their backline led to a 3-2 defeat against West Ham on Tuesday. Despite the loss, they held the Hammers to just four shots and six touches inside the box.

Unlike West Ham, Leicester is not an effective high-pressing side.

Since Ruud van Nistelrooy came over as manager, it’s allowing the second-most passes per defensive action (PPDA) at 15.41, per Understat.

Marco Silva’s side can expose the Foxes by dominating wide areas with overloads to stir up scoring chances.

Led by left-back Antonee Robinson, with nine assists to his ledger, Fulham has the highest number of crosses into the penalty area. Meanwhile, Leicester is 17th in allowing crosses into the penalty area.

The Cottagers won 2-1 in the reverse fixture, generating 1.78 expected goals (xG) to Leceister’s 0.61.

On the road, Fulham is 3-4-3 (seventh in EPL) with impressive wins over Chelsea and Nottingham Forest.

Although the Foxes have the advantage of playing a third straight home fixture, they’re no match against an angry Fulham squad.

Key stat: Before Wednesday, Leicester lost in five straight matches.

Quick pick

Ipswich Town/Manchester City – Both teams to score (-132): This is a juicy line, but I believe it’s worth playing.

There is no doubt that City can score off an Ipswich defence, averaging a woeful 2.09 xGA (second-worst in the EPL).

However, there are no signs of improvement in its defence — evident in the 2-2 thriller at Brentford on Tuesday.

Without Rodri in midfield and injuries to the backline, City lacks the pace to effectively counter-press its opponents. As a result, the side is leaving acres of open space for opponents to rip shots in defensive areas.

Despite sitting 18th in the table, Ipswich has shown flashes of brilliance in attack by bringing tons of speed on the counter.

The Citizens have kept just four clean sheets over 21 league matches.

Picks made at 1:45 p.m. on 01/15/25.

The final game of Matchday 20 goes down on Monday between the Wolves and Nottingham Forest.

The pregame narrative: Nottingham Forest is on a tear right now and I like the side to win against the Wolves on Monday. I am also picking the over on the game total and a prop pick on Chris Wood in this +310 SGP.

Check out my Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 6.

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Parlay: Nottingham Forest to win + Wood over 0.5 shots on target + Over 2.5 goals (+310)

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Nottingham Forest to win (+125): Forest is on a serious heater right now. It is 5-0-0 over the past five games with notable wins over Tottenham, Aston Villa and Manchester United.

Three of those games were played on the road which is the situation for Matchday 20.

The run of play has catapulted Forest into third in the EPL above teams like Chelsea and Manchester City.

Nottingham Forest plays a tight defence and relies on a strong counter attack. The Wolves have allowed the seventh-most xG (31.1), per Fotmob.

The side sits 17th in the Premier League and concedes 2.2 goals per match (second-most in the EPL). The squad has a -11 goal differential.

SGP legs

Wood over 0.5 shots on target (-265): Wood is Forest’s leading scorer, netting 11 goals in 19 Premier League appearances.

He is 14-5 against this line in those matches and has another chance to do damage here.

As mentioned before, the Wolves are a poor defensive team and Wood is the main target for Nottingham Forest in the final third.

Wood has a shot on target in 10 of his last 14 starts.

Over 2.5 goals (+102): The final leg of this parlay is on the over.

Forest is a strong defensive team but it plays a weird style that allows opponents to attack freely.

The squad ranks last in average possession (39.5%) and first in clearances per match (27.8).

Those are stats of a team that gets dominated frequently, but more often than not, Forest can limit the damage.

That doesn’t change the fact that it’s a risky approach and there’s a solid chance the Wolves can score here.

• The side scores the eighth-most goals per game (1.6).

• The Wolves have scored a goal in seven of its last eight matches.

I could see Nottingham Forest scoring three alone but I still predict two will do the trick.

Picks made at 2:45 p.m. on 1/5/25.

I’ve got two bets for the first Premier League matchday of the calendar year.

The pregame narrative: Look for Brentford to score a couple on the road against relegation-contending Southampton. On Saturday, Wolverhampton hosts red-hot Nottingham Forest in what I expect to be a feisty and low-scoring matchup

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Best Bet: Brentford over 1.5 total goals (+100)

On record, Brentford is one of the league’s worst away sides, with just two points off nine matches. However, the strength of competition should be taken into consideration.

In their away fixtures, the Bees faced a gauntlet of top sides (Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham) and haven’t clashed against a bottom feeder — until this weekend.

Brentford is an aggressive attacking team, with Bryan Mbeumo controlling the right flank, Yoane Wissa wreaking havoc in the box and its best free-kicker Mathias Jensen returning from injury.

The attack should do damage off a Southampton side that averages a league-worst 2.25 expected goals allowed (xGA) per 90 minutes and has conceded 11 goals off set-pieces.

With hopes of escaping the relegation zone, Southampton hired experienced manager Ivan Juric in late December. However, the backline has continued to allow a flurry of chances.

In their recent 2-1 defeat to Crystal Palace, the Saints allowed both goals from set-piece plays and it’s a defensive flaw the Bees can exploit — and have before.

The reverse fixture in August saw Thomas Frank’s side thump Southampton for three goals, including one from a long throw-in.

Brentford’s road form is due for positive regression, and I say there’s value in backing it to score a couple off a poor defensive side.

Key stat: Brentford has scored multiple goals in four straight matches against Southampton.

Quick pick

Wolves/Nottingham Forest under 2.5 goals (-114): Wolves were a porous defensive team before sacking former manager Gary O’Neil in mid-December.

In comes Vitor Pereira, whose coaching tactics emphasize flexibility and solidity on defence. In three games under management, Wolves recorded two clean sheets en route to convincing victories.

Their attack takes a major hit with the suspension of forward Matheus Cunha, who leads the club in goals (10), shots, and chances created.

Sitting third in the league table at 37 points, Nottingham Forest could be destined for Champions League play next season, largely due to its impenetrable defence.

Nuno Espiritu Santo’s side ranks first in final-third entry conversion rate (averaging 1.6 percent) and is joint leader in clean sheets with Liverpool, at eight.

Offensively, the Tricky Trees are lethal when sitting deep and inviting pressure before attacking on the counter.

Wolves, however, are less resistant to quick counters and have allowed just a single goal on 16 fast break shots.

Picks made at 10:26 a.m. on 1/2/25.