Category: Soccer

My picks for the final league-phase matches in the Champions League feature two La Liga sides.

The pregame narrative: Barcelona has delivered plenty of high-scoring matches this season and I believe its clash against Atalanta will be no different. Also, back Atletico Madrid to win convincingly over inferior Austrian side Red Bull Salzburg on the road.

Check out the best Champions League predictions for Matchday 8.

Champions League predictions

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Best Bet: Barcelona/Atalanta over 3.5 goals (-104)

This matchup has all the makings of a thrilling spectacle.

Time and time again, Barcelona has consistently produced barnburners that bring viewers to the edge of their seats. And last week’s 5-4 victory at Benfica could be the “Match of the Year” when all is said and done.

The Catalans have arguably the best attacking squad in Europe.

Led by the dangerous trio of Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, Barcelona is averaging a league-best 2.8 goals in La Liga.

Manager Hansi Flick likes to play a high-pressing defensive line to quickly regain possession in forward areas. The big downside to this strategy is it leaves acres of space for opponents to create fast-break opportunities.

After being hammered by Benfica’s counterattack, Barcelona’s defenders now face a tougher challenge against Atalanta’s striking duo of Ademola Lookman and Mateo Retegui, who’ve combined for 33 goals in all competitions.

Under Gian Piero Gasperini, Atalanta utilizes a similar Gegenpressing tactic, with a 3-5-2 structure. Its attacking production in the Serie A has been impressive.

• 2nd in expected goals (1.71 per 90)
• 3rd in shots on goal (5.5 per 90)
• 2nd in big scoring chances (3.5 per 90)
• 2nd in final-third entry conversion rate

It has carried over to the bigger stage, with the Italian side posting the highest non-penalty xG figure (18.54) in the Champions League.

A loss would push Atalanta outside the Top 8, so it must rely heavily on its counter-pressing to stay level with Barcelona to secure a spot in the round of 16.

Key stat: This bet is 4-2 in Barcelona’s Champions League matches, which have averaged 5.28 goals.

Quick picks

Atletico Madrid -1.5 (+100): It shouldn’t be too much to ask a title-contending squad like Atletico Madrid to defeat an inferior side by multiple goals.

• Diego Simeone’s side is second in La Liga, sporting a 16-3-2 record, and four points back of Real Madrid.

• Atletico is also fifth in the Champions League, with 15 points and a 5-0-2 record.

• It is coming off an impressive 2-1 home win over reigning German champs Bayer Leverkusen last week.

Salzburg, 34th in the table with a woeful -19 goal differential, is playing solely for pride at this stage. And its six defeats in this competition have all been lopsided.

The domestic form doesn’t look inspiring, either. The Red Bulls are fifth in Austria’s Bundesliga, with a lacklustre 7-5-4 record and is 10 points behind leader Sturm Graz.

Atletico only needs a win to guarantee Round of 16 qualification, but I am expecting a beatdown here.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 01/27/25.

The marquee game of Matchday 23 features Manchester City hosting Chelsea on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: In this matchup between attacking powerhouses, I am taking an alt-total as the centrepiece of this +310 SGP. To round it off, I am playing props on Chelsea’s Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke.

Check out my Manchester City vs. Chelsea same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 25.

Man City vs. Chelsea predictions

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Parlay: Over 2.5 goals + Palmer to score or assist + Madueke over 1.5 shots (+310)

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Over 2.5 goals (-225): City’s defensive woes in the absence of Rodri are well-documented.

They’re no longer an effective counter-pressing team and opposing attackers are finding more success dribbling and scoring from inside the 18-yard box.

Similar issues are affecting a Chelsea side which has failed to keep a clean sheet in five matches. And injuries to centre-backs Wesley Fofana and Axel Disasi only further weaken the backline.

Both are among the bottom-half defensive teams over the last 10 matches.

• Man City is averaging 1.70 xGA (13th)

• Chelsea is averaging 1.54 xGA (11th)

Pep Guardiola’s squad has returned to its elite attacking form, scoring 14 goals over the last four league matches.

Chelsea is coming off a dominating 3-1 win over Wolves on Monday. Despite missing key midfielder Enzo Fernandez to injury, it generated 3.2 expected goals on 19 shots.

Given the recent attacking form and defensive vulnerabilities, a high-scoring contest is likely in the cards.

SGP legs

Palmer to score or assist (-103): England’s fastest-rising star will be determined to inflict damage on his former club.

Guardiola persuaded Palmer to leave City in 2023 after refusing to include the youngster in his plans, which quickly backfired.

Since joining Chelsea, Palmer has emerged as one of the league’s best playmakers. The stats speak for themselves.

• Second-most goal contributions (14G, 6A) this season.
• Accounted for 45% of Chelsea’s goals.
• Leads the league in chances created (62).

Palmer is also on corners and penalty duties, which is a bonus to this prop. If the Blues get on the scoresheet, Palmer is likely to be involved.

Madueke over 1.5 shots (-165): Madueke’s exceptional pace and dribbling skills will be key to Chelsea’s success in this matchup.

The 22-year-old winger also serves as a secondary striker and has ripped a healthy number of shots in recent games.

• Madueke has 2+ shots in his last nine starts.

• Averaging 4.25 shots per 90, ranked 96th percentile among attackers.

He should fancy his chances against a City defence that has trouble containing speedy attackers. And given Madueke’s sizzling form, he should be featured in Enzo Maresca’s starting eleven.

Picks made at 9:01 a.m. on 1/23/25.

I’ve got two bets at plus-money odds for this weekend’s Premier League action.

The pregame narrative: Newcastle heads into Southampton off a humbling defeat, and I expect it to bounce back with a convincing victory. In addition, take the under in the contest between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 23 picks.

EPL Matchday 23 picks

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Best Bet: Newcastle -1.5 (+108)

Newcastle was humbled in front of its home supporters last weekend, suffering a 4-1 defeat to surging Bournemouth and seeing its winning streak end at six games.

Before that, the Magpies were the hottest club in the league, smashing the likes of Aston Villa, Manchester United and Arsenal in recent matches.

The dangerous attacking duo of Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon is performing at peak levels, having combined for 11 goals over their last six games.

Eddie Howe’s side will need to regroup themselves for a shot at Champions League qualification, and it gets a perfect opportunity here.

Southampton (1-3-18) is sitting at the bottom of the table, with six points across 22 matches, and is destined for relegation.

The Saints didn’t reap the same benefits of a new manager bump as other Premier League clubs. They have a 0-1-5 record and a -10 goal differential since appointing Ivan Juric on Dec. 21.

Isak and Co. should wreak havoc against a struggling Southampton defence, ranked dead-last in various defensive metrics.

• 20th in expected goals allowed (2.39 per 90)
• 20th in shots on goal allowed (6.8 per 90)
• 20th in big-scoring chances conceded (4.5 per 90)
• 20th in final-third entry conversion rate (4.6%)

This is a nightmare spot for the Saints, coming off two gruelling defeats and facing a fuming Newcastle side.

The Magpies won the reverse fixture 1-0 while playing a man down for over an hour. I can easily see a 3-0 or 3-1 win for Newcastle on the road.

Key stat: Newcastle has won five of its last six matches by 2+ goals.

Quick pick

Bournemouth/Nottingham Forest under 2.5 (+108): Two of the biggest surprises from the Premiership clash in what should be a fascinating, yet low-scoring, contest.

Bournemouth pummeled a red-hot Newcastle side to a 4-1 victory last weekend. But much of the damage stemmed from its high-pressing defence, which forced Newcastle to commit an array of errors that led to scoring chances.

Nottingham Forest are an intelligent team that can absorb pressure in build-up play and take care of the ball. It has conceded the second-fewest errors that led to shots (nine), per The Analyst.

Aggressive attacking squads like Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea have combined for just two goals against it thus far.

The Tricky Trees often create their scoring chances from quick transitions. However, Bournemouth has limited opponents to just 12 fast-break shots, the second-fewest in the league.

Given the reverse fixture ended in a 1-1 draw, backing the under at plus-money odds is a value play.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. on 01/22/25.