Category: Soccer

Everton and Liverpool collide in a real matchup of David and Goliath.

The pregame narrative: Liverpool is the Goliath in this matchup, but Goliath enters this contest after a recent stunner. A shocking defeat isn’t enough to dissuade me from backing The Reds, however, as I fancy their chances against Everton. I’m also backing Mohamed Salah to score a goal in this ticket.

Check out my Everton vs. Liverpool same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 12.

Everton vs. Liverpool predictions

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Parlay: Liverpool full time | Both teams to score – no | Salah to score (+360)

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Liverpool full time (-230): Some may be wary of backing Liverpool after a dreadful FA Cup result.

The Reds dropped their fourth-round contest against a plucky Plymouth Argyle side, 1-0. Although the result paints an unfortunate picture for Liverpool, the side likely deserved a better result.

Liverpool rifled off 14 shots with four hitting the target. It dominated the possession battle 75-25 and completed 83 percent of its passes in the loss.

A similar effort should be enough to topple a floundering Everton squad. The Toffees sit near the bottom of the table in the EPL, sporting an underwhelming 6-8-9 record.

Everton is also reeling after a loss at the FA Cup, dropping its most recent match 2-0 to Bournemouth.

Other SGP legs

Both teams to score – no (-113): This is a sensible wager for several reasons.

For starters, it correlates with my overall pessimistic outlook for Everton. The side has one of the most ineffective offences in the Premier League, ranking a lowly 18th in goals this campaign (23).

The Toffees have failed to register a marker in 13 contests.

Liverpool, meanwhile, has been masterful in limiting the opposition. The Reds are ceding the fewest goals in the Premier League (21).

They’ve earned a clean sheet in two of their last three matches.

Salah to score (+125): It’s a square pick, certainly, but Salah figures to make his mark on this contest if The Reds are going to win.

The Egyptian superstar is having another excellent campaign. He leads the EPL with 21 goals which is already three more than he had in 2023-24.

To put it into perspective, that’s only two goals fewer than Everton has (23).

Here are some more fast facts about Salah:

• Salah scored two goals in his most recent EPL appearance vs. Bournemouth
• He has a goal in six of his last eight outings
• Salah has scored in 17 of 23 EPL matches this campaign

Put me down for a Salah goal in this contest.

Picks made at 1:11 p.m. on 2/09/25.

Liverpool head back to Anfield down 1-0 to Tottenham in the Carabao Cup semi-final on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Liverpool will need to attack aggressively to keep its treble hopes alive, and I expect they’ll pile up goals against an injury-riddled Spurs team. Player props on Mohamed Salah and Dominik Szoboszlai round out the +335 SGP.

Check out my Liverpool vs. Tottenham same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 6.

Liverpool vs. Tottenham predictions

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Parlay: Liverpool over 2.5 total goals | Salah to score | Szoboszlai over 0.5 shots on target (+335)

Liverpool over 2.5 total goals (-175): Liverpool was caught napping in the first leg, but I expect the Premier League leaders to attack aggressively from the outset.

Although three goals seem a lot on paper, the Reds have the attacking firepower to get the job done. Here are their attacking stats in league play:

• 1st in expected goals (2.37 per 90)
• 1st in shots on target (6.91 per 90)
• 1st in big chances
• 2nd in touches inside the box

On the flip side, Tottenham’s backline is battered by injuries and leaking goals at will.

Although centre-back Mickey van de Ven is back from injury, a torn ACL to Radu Dragusin further stretches the list.

In their last two league matches, the Reds smoked the Spurs for 10 combined goals on 9.0 expected goals.

With Arne Slot likely planning for an aggressive attack, I fancy their chances to score a flurry of goals.

SGP legs

Salah to score (-124): If Liverpool runs up the goals tally, you can expect one will come from the Egyptian King.

Salah is arguably the best attacker in the Premier League, and the stats are telling.

• Top scorer in the EPL with 21 goals
• 1st in xG per 90 (0.81)
• 2nd in shots on target (43)

His best performance of the season came against the Spurs in December, scoring twice in the 6-3 victory.

The Liverpool captain is also tasked as the main penalty-taker, adding further value bonus to this prop.

In most circumstances, you won’t get rich laying a -124 price for anyone to score. But it makes sense here.

Szoboszlai over 0.5 shots on target (-120): Szoboszlai is a key component to Liverpool’s high-octane attack.

Although the surface stats aren’t eye-popping, the Hungarian midfielder possesses a cannon for a leg.

One of the standout skills is his ability to deliver dangerous balls into the box or on goal from free-kicks. And I predict he gets a few chances here, given the likelihood that Liverpool dominates possession.

Szoboszlai has cashed this prop in seven of his past eight league starts, averaging 4.25 shots during that stretch.

Picks made at 2:24 p.m. on 2/04/25.

I have two bets for this weekend’s Premier League slate, with one focused on the Arsenal and Manchester City rivalry.

The pregame narrative: The marquee match sees Arsenal host rivals Manchester City, and I say there’s value in backing the Gunners to win at plus-money odds. Before that, take Nottingham Forest to bounce back with a win over Brighton at home.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 24 picks.

EPL Matchday 24 picks

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Best Bet: Arsenal to win (+108)

Manchester City has slowly turned things around, with newly-added Omar Marmoush giving the attack a much-needed spark. But… let’s back up the hype train just a bit.

Defensive issues remain a big worry for this team.

• 8.06 xG in the last five league matches
• 26 shots allowed vs. PSG last week (4-2 loss)

Simply put, the Citizens are too slow to be effective in the counter-press, with opponents finding more success at creating scoring chances.

Arsenal doesn’t possess the same attacking punch without star winger Bukayo Saka but remains capable of exposing City’s defensive weaknesses.

A matchup advantage for the Gunners is in midfield, where they often control play with intelligent passes while baiting opponents into pressing them.

Counterattacking is not often a feature in Mikel Arteta’s game plan, but it could be a sneaky weapon in this fixture.

Arsenal have converted 30.8% of fast break shots (4-for-13). Meanwhile, City allows the fourth-most shots in transition.

In addition, the Gunners remain the only club to be unbeaten at home, with a 7-4-0 record this season.

At plus-money odds, backing Arsenal on the money line offers good value.

Key stat: Man City ranks 15th in big-scoring chances allowed (2.9 per 90).

Quick pick

Nottingham Forest draw no bet (-134): This is a bounce-back spot for Nottingham Forest to at least get a result.

The Tricky Trees saw their eight-game unbeaten streak end against a flying Bournemouth side. But the Seagulls don’t pose the same threat.

Brighton was shut out by Everton last week, registering just a single shot on target despite controlling possession.

The offence is ranked 12th in non-penalty xG (1.34 per 90) and 11th in big-scoring chances. Meanwhile, Forest is the second-best team in limiting big scoring chances.

Under Nuno Espiritu Santo, its plan in attack is to win the ball in defensive areas and create chances on the counter — something Brighton is vulnerable to.

Nuno’s side must get back on track to keep their Champions League aspirations alive. And I have trouble believing Brighton can find tons of scoring success off a staunch backline like Forest’s.

Picks made at 10:22 a.m. on 01/30/25.

I have two player props for the final league-phase matches in the Champions League.

The pregame narrative: Bayer Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz faces a promising matchup against Sparta Praha, and I say there’s value in backing the youngster to score at plus-money odds. Also, bet on Atalanta’s Charles De Ketelaere to rip a couple of shots.

Check out the best Champions League prop bets for Matchday 8.

Champions League prop bets

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Best Bet: Wirtz anytime goal scorer (+115)

Bayer Leverkusen’s talisman is among the brighter young stars in the German top flight.

The catalyst of the club’s historic season, Wirtz is making bigger strides in 2024-25.

• Nine goals on 7.1 expected goals (xG) in the Bundesliga.
• Averaging 3.3 shots per match.
• Made 13 carries leading to a chance, most in the Bundesliga.

He faces a favourable matchup against Czech side Sparta Prague, which has conceded 19 goals and the second-most shots in the competition.

Leverkusen is eighth in the table, with a single goal making the difference for Round-of-16 qualification. So, it will be crucial for Xabi Alonso’s side to keep its foot on the pedal and pile up goals.

Wirtz serving as the club’s main penalty taker is an added bonus for this prop.

Considering the markets are pricing Leverkusen to score at least three goals, I feel good about his chances of netting a goal.

Key stat: Wirtz leads the club with five goals in the Champions League.

Quick picks

De Ketelaere over 1.5 shots (-120): Charles De Ketelaere has been a standout figure for Atalanta.

The Belgian attacker has scored four goals in his last three Champions League fixtures, averaging 3.3 shots during that stretch.

Barcelona’s defence has been proven vulnerable to strong attacking sides, as exhibited by conceding four goals on 10 shots from Benfica last week.

De Ketelaere, standing at an imposing 6-foot-4, can also generate shots from set-piece plays.

With striker Ademola Lookman ruled out due to injury, he will become even more important to Gian Piero Gasperini’s gameplan and could play the full 90 minutes.

Picks made at 11:33 a.m. on 01/28/25.