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Champions League playoff picks and predictions Feb. 18: Bet on Benfica to win second leg of knockout phase

Eight teams will vie for a spot in the Champions League Round of 16 on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Six of the eight Champions League matchups are separated by just one goal, leaving plenty of drama for the second legs. Benfica enters with a one-goal lead over AS Monaco, and I expect the former to beat the latter. Elsewhere, I’m taking the under between Bayern Munich and Celtic.

Check out the best Champions League predictions for the knockout phase playoffs.

Champions League predictions

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Best Bet: Benfica to win (-130)

Benfica eked out a 1-0 victory over AS Monaco in the first meeting and I’m bullish on its chances of earning another win in the second leg.

The Eagles won thanks to a goal early in the second half from Vangelis Pavlidis, but the squad had plenty of opportunities to extend the lead.

Benfica held a significant advantage in the following categories:

Shot attempts (23-6)
Attacks (59-32)
Corners (7-2)

Benfica enters this contest in fine form, too, winning each of its last five outings.

Monaco started the contest strong thanks to an impassioned crowd at Stade Louis-II, but the club faded hard after the half. With the scene shifting to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, I’m betting on a convincing effort from the home side.

Key stat: Benfica has already defeated Monaco twice in Champions League action in 2024-25.

Quick pick

Bayern Munich vs. Celtic under 3.5 goals (+120): I’m fine taking the plus-money odds with the under for this total.

Bayern Munich would be feeling better about its chances of advancing if not for conceding a late goal to Daizen Maeda in the first leg. The German side is still in the driver’s seat with a 2-1 edge, though, and I expect the club to rely on its defensive prowess to advance.

The Bavarians have conceded just 19 goals across 22 Bundesliga matches this year, proving to be a formidable defensive side.

Although Celtic’s offence is lighting up the Scottish Premiership, fans and bettors have come to expect more muted outputs in Champions League play. The Bhoys have gone under this total in five of their last seven Champions League matches.

Picks made at 2:26 p.m. on 02/17/25.

Champions League playoff schedule and odds Feb. 18-19: Manchester City vs. Real Madrid battle in second leg

The schedule for the second leg of the Champions League knockout phase kicks off on Tuesday.

The latest: Real Madrid edged past Manchester City in a thrilling first leg, but Los Blancos are far from locked into a Round of 16 spot. Elsewhere, five other first-leg matches were decided by a single goal, which means there’s plenty of nail-biting action ahead.

Check out the latest Champions League schedule for Feb. 18-19.

Champions League schedule: Knockout phase playoffs

Go to full Champions League betting markets

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. AC Milan

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Benfica vs. AS Monaco

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Celtic vs. Bayern Munich

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Atalanta vs. Club Brugge

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Borussia Dortmund vs. Sporting CP

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Paris Saint-Germain vs. Brest

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PSV Eindhoven vs. Juventus

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Manchester City vs. Real Madrid

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Betting insights

Harry Kane’s goal in the 49th minute put Bayern Munich up 2-0, but Daizen Maeda’s late strike for Celtic adds intrigue to the second leg of this battle. The Bhoys are significant underdogs but will undoubtedly push for offence in this contest.

Paris Saint-Germain is one of two clubs wielding a multi-goal lead on aggregate entering the second leg. A pair of strikes from Ousmane Dembélé helped put PSG in the driver’s seat against Brest.

Juventus pulled off a shocking result against PSV Eindhoven thanks to a late tally from Samuel Mbangula. The Boeren will likely be the aggressors in Wednesday’s contest and are favoured to win.

Spectators and bettors are in for an epic showdown if the second leg of Manchester City/Real Madrid is anything like the first. Erling Haaland put Man City up 2-1 in the 80th minute, but late strikes from Brahim Díaz and Jude Bellingham lifted Real Madrid to a 3-2 victory.

Juventus vs. Inter Milan same-game parlay predictions Feb. 16: Bet on Juve to pick up points in a defensive battle

Juventus host Inter Milan in a huge Serie A match at Allianz Stadium on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Both teams have plenty to play for in this one. Inter is just one point behind Napoli for the table lead while Juventus is two points back of fourth place, which carries automatic Champions League qualifications. Back the hosts to pick up points in a defensive battle.

Check out my Juventus vs. Inter Milan same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 16.

Juventus vs. Inter Milan predictions

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Parlay: Juventus double result | Under 2.5 goals | Barella 1+ shot (+320)

Juventus double result (-159): Thiago Motta’s debut season as Juventus manager has turned some heads.

The former Brazilian national has turned I Bianconeri into a stout defensive side but there’s a lot to be desired on offence.

Juventus has conceded 21.4 xG, which is the second-lowest mark in Serie A behind Inter Milan, according to FotMob.
That’s right in line with the squad’s 21 goals allowed, which is also second, behind Napoli.

Juve has only lost once in league play all season — in a road fixture to Napoli on Jan. 25 — and owns a 10-13-1 record.

At home, Juventus is 5-7-0 with just 10 goals conceded. Inter is an impressive 8-3-1 away from the San Siro but I can’t bet against the hosts with such a large sample size.

Other SGP legs

Under 2.5 goals (-139): Inter might be the only team in Serie A which can dictate play better than Juventus. It ranks first in possession (60.2) with Juve sitting second (58.7).

But Juventus had the majority of possession when these teams met in a 4-4 barnburner at the San Siro on Oct. 27.

Two of Inter’s goals came from the penalty spot, though, and I don’t expect a repeat of that fixture.

At home, Juventus should have a better shot of slowing things down, especially with key Inter midfielder Federico DiMarco battling the flu.

Juventus and Inter are tied for second in Serie A with 11 clean sheets apiece. The hosts also rank a pedestrian seventh in xG created (33.7) and should be wary of getting into a track meet.

Barella 1+ shot (-155): This is great value for a player like Barella and I would consider playing it as a standalone even with -155 odds.

The dynamic midfielder is integral to Simone Inzaghi’s game plan and frequently plays the full 90 minutes in important games.

He’s not much of a scoring threat but still attempts plenty of shots, clearing this line in four straight games and seven of his last eight.

He had two shot attempts against Juventus in October.

Serie A picks made at 1:30 p.m. on 2/14/25.

Manchester City vs. Newcastle United same-game parlay predictions Feb. 15: Bet on the Magpies to secure points at +425

Manchester City vs. Newcastle United predictions

Manchester City host Newcastle United for a huge Premier League match at the Etihad on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: These clubs sit fifth and sixth, respectively, in the Premiership with 41 points and City is ahead thanks to goal difference. The Magpies are surging and I like them to pick up a point away from home even with Erling Haaland finding the score sheet.

Check out my Manchester City vs. Newcastle United same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 15.

Manchester City vs. Newcastle United predictions

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Parlay: Newcastle United double result | Haaland to score or give an assist | Isak 1+ SOT (+425)

Newcastle United double result (-118): It’s been a nightmarish run for Pep Guardiola’s side.

The Citizens set a winning standard over the past decade and have fallen woefully short this season. Injuries — specifically the loss of reigning Ballon d’Or winner Rodri — have played a big part but key players are out of form and seem rudderless.

In the last two weeks, City took debatedly its two worst losses of the season:

Feb. 2 at Arsenal: 5-1 loss
Feb. 11 vs. Real Madrid: 3-2 loss

City had a 2-1 lead late against Madrid but capitulated while surrendering a whopping 3.42 xG, per Opta Analyst.

That’s nothing new, as the squad ranks a pedestrian 10th in xG conceded (34.2) in the EPL.

Newcastle has won 12 of its last 14 games across all competitions while averaging 2.57 goals. The Magpies rank fifth in xG (41.7) in the Premiership and already forced a 1-1 draw against City in the reverse fixture earlier this year.

I expect a draw at worst from Eddie Howe’s boys.

Other SGP legs

Haaland to score or (-120): Taking Haaland to score might seem counterintuitive but a 2-2 or 3-3 draw is firmly in play here.

City might not be able to defend but it certainly doesn’t have trouble scoring — and Haaland is at the forefront of the attack:

Man City ranks fourth in xG (44.9) and big chances (74) in the EPL.
Haaland has 19 goals and two assists in 24 league matches.
He’s scored or assisted in five of his last six matches across all competitions.

Newcastle has given up five goals in its last four games — even while winning three — so don’t expect it to be perfect on Saturday.

Isak 1+ SOT (-500): Finally, I’m backing Alexander Isak to record a shot on target.

Isak leads his team with 17 goals and 30 SOT in 22 league appearances.
His 14.1 xG is third to only Mo Salah and Haaland while his 1.6 SOT/90 ranks ninth.
Isak has cleared this bet in 11 of his last 15 starts across all competitions.

City just allowed 12 shot attempts to Arsenal and 20 to Real Madrid. Isak should be able to find the target at least once.

Picks made at 1:30 p.m. on 2/13/25.

Manchester City vs. Newcastle United same-game parlay predictions Feb. 15: Bet on the Magpies to secure points at +525

Manchester City host Newcastle United for a huge Premier League match at the Etihad on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: These clubs sit fifth and sixth, respectively, in the Premiership with 41 points and City is ahead thanks to goal difference. The Magpies are surging and I like them to pick up a point away from home even with Erling Haaland finding the score sheet.

Check out my Manchester City vs. Newcastle United same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 15.

Manchester City vs. Newcastle United predictions

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Parlay: Newcastle United double result | Haaland to score or give an assist | Isak 1+ SOT (+525)

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Newcastle United double result (-110): It’s been a nightmarish run for Pep Guardiola’s side.

The Citizens set a winning standard over the past decade and have fallen woefully short this season. Injuries — specifically the loss of reigning Ballon d’Or winner Rodri — have played a big part but key players are out of form and seem rudderless.

In the last two weeks, City took debatedly its two worst losses of the season:

Feb. 2 at Arsenal: 5-1 loss
Feb. 11 vs. Real Madrid: 3-2 loss

City had a 2-1 lead late against Madrid but capitulated while surrendering a whopping 3.42 xG, per Opta Analyst.

That’s nothing new, as the squad ranks a pedestrian 10th in xG conceded (34.2) in the EPL.

Newcastle has won 12 of its last 14 games across all competitions while averaging 2.57 goals. The Magpies rank fifth in xG (41.7) in the Premiership and already forced a 1-1 draw against City in the reverse fixture earlier this year.

I expect a draw at worst from Eddie Howe’s boys.

Other SGP legs

Haaland to score or give an assist (-136): Taking Haaland to score might seem counterintuitive but a 2-2 or 3-3 draw is firmly in play here.

City might not be able to defend but it certainly doesn’t have trouble scoring — and Haaland is at the forefront of the attack:

Man City ranks fourth in xG (44.9) and big chances (74) in the EPL.
Haaland has 19 goals and two assists in 24 league matches.
He’s scored or assisted in five of his last six matches across all competitions.

Newcastle has given up five goals in its last four games — even while winning three — so don’t expect it to be perfect on Saturday.

Isak 1+ SOT (-235): Finally, I’m backing Alexander Isak to record a shot on target.

Isak leads his team with 17 goals and 30 SOT in 22 league appearances.
His 14.1 xG is third to only Mo Salah and Haaland while his 1.6 SOT/90 ranks ninth.
Isak has cleared this bet in 11 of his last 15 starts across all competitions.

City just allowed 12 shot attempts to Arsenal and 20 to Real Madrid. Isak should be able to find the target at least once.

Picks made at 1:30 p.m. on 2/13/25.

EPL Matchday 25 picks and predictions: Bet the over in Tottenham vs. Manchester United

The Premier League is back in action this weekend and I have two picks for you.

The pregame narrative: The final game on Sunday is between two underperforming English giants and I’m taking the over at plus money in the Tottenham vs. Manchester United match. Below, I also share a pick on Nottingham Forest.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 25 picks.

EPL Matchday 25 picks

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Best Bet: Tottenham/Manchester United over 3.5 goals (+110)

These two sides last met on Dec. 19 and it was a game to show to the soccer haters.

Tottenham stole a win, 4-3, in a non-league fixture, but it was Man U pouring on the pressure. The side had 20 shot attempts and 2.56 xG, per FotMob.

Tottenham bagged four goals on a measly 0.67 xG which is impressive, but I expect more chances this go around.

The first meeting between these two clubs finished 3-0 to the side on Man U but I am confident Spurs can score at least a goal on Sunday.

Tottenham has the sixth-most xG (40.4) and scores the third-most goals per match (2.0).

Manchester United can get in high-danger spots, too. The Red Devils have 34.2 xG this season. It’s worth taking a shot at another offensive explosion at this juicy price.

Key stat: Tottenham allows 1.5 goals against per match.

Quick pick

Nottingham Forest over 1.5 goals (+200): Nottingham Forest has been a huge surprise this season.

It currently sits third on the Premier League table with a 14-5-5 record. The side’s relied on strong defence over offence this season but recent results can’t be ignored.

In its last EPL match, Forest steamrolled Brighton 7-0. The game before was a 5-0 defeat but the Tricky Trees scored in six of the eight league fixtures before that.

The side also managed to score against Liverpool in a 1-1 draw on Jan. 14.

Playing a tough Fulham side on the road is a tall task but I think these odds are worth the risk.

Picks made at 2:22 p.m. on 02/12/25.

EPL Matchday 25 picks and predictions: Bet the over in Tottenham vs. Manchester United

The Premier League is back in action this weekend and I have two picks for you.

The pregame narrative: The final game on Sunday is between two underperforming English giants and I’m taking the over at plus money in the Tottenham vs. Manchester United match. Below, I also share a pick on Nottingham Forest.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 25 picks.

EPL Matchday 25 picks

Go to full Premier League betting markets.

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Best Bet: Tottenham/Manchester United over 3.5 goals (+105)

These two sides last met on Dec. 19 and it was a game to show to the soccer haters.

Tottenham stole a win, 4-3, in a non-league fixture, but it was Man U pouring on the pressure. The side had 20 shot attempts and 2.56 xG, per FotMob.

Tottenham bagged four goals on a measly 0.67 xG which is impressive, but I expect more chances this go around.

The first meeting between these two clubs finished 3-0 to the side on Man U but I am confident Spurs can score at least a goal on Sunday.

Tottenham has the sixth-most xG (40.4) and scores the third-most goals per match (2.0).

Manchester United can get in high-danger spots, too. The Red Devils have 34.2 xG this season. It’s worth taking a shot at another offensive explosion at this juicy price.

Key stat: Tottenham allows 1.5 goals against per match.

Quick pick

Nottingham Forest over 1.5 goals (+205): Nottingham Forest has been a huge surprise this season.

It currently sits third on the Premier League table with a 14-5-5 record. The side’s relied on strong defence over offence this season but recent results can’t be ignored.

In its last EPL match, Forest steamrolled Brighton 7-0. The game before was a 5-0 defeat but the Tricky Trees scored in six of the eight league fixtures before that.

The side also managed to score against Liverpool in a 1-1 draw on Jan. 14.

Playing a tough Fulham side on the road is a tall task but I think these odds are worth the risk.

Picks made at 2:22 p.m. on 02/12/25.

Champions League round of 16 prop bets: Back Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane

The Champions League playoff stage begins this week as eight teams battle for the final four spots in the Round of 16.

The pregame narrative: A blockbuster matchup between Real Madrid and Manchester City kicks off at the Etihad on Tuesday and I expect Kylian Mbappe to be active. Then, back Harry Kane to score against Celtic.

Check out the best Champions League prop bets for the Round of 16 playoff.

Champions League prop bets

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Best Bet: Mbappe over 1.5 shots on target (+100)

Carlo Ancelotti preached patience after Mbappe missed a penalty in a 2-0 loss to Liverpool on Nov. 27.

It was a low point for the French superstar fighting through it with his new club.

But great managers tend to get the best out of their players and Mbappe turned a corner for Los Blancos to start the new year.

Mbappe has scored nine goals in his last eight games.
He’s registered 17 shots on target in that span, clearing this mark six times.

Real Madrid owns the most star-studded lineup in Europe with Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo playing high in a 4-2-3-1 formation.

Mbappe spearheads that attack and should feast against a Manchester City side which is a shell of its former self right now.

The Citizens have been a defensive mess after losing Ballon d’Or winner Rodri to a torn ACL. Pep Guardiola gets some reinforcements with John Stones and Ruben Dias returning, though neither is in top form.

City was just battered 5-1 by Arsenal in the Premier League with Stones in the lineup. A few matches before that, it lost 4-2 to PSG in the UCL league stage.

Key stat: Mbappe has 67 SOT for Real Madrid, clearing this line in 22 of 34 games across all competitions.

Quick pick

Kane to score (-188): I don’t love these odds but you could argue they’re generous considering how lopsided this matchup could get.

Bayern’s offence was ever-threatening during the league stage but it squandered some big chances, which is why it’s in this playoff. The Bavarians currently lead in these key categories, per FotMob:

22.5 xG (1st)
68.9% possession (1st)
8.6 shots on target/game (1st)
41 big chances (1st)

Kane was at the forefront of that attack, netting six goals on 6.4 xG. He also led this tournament with eight goals last year.

The English national is a goalscoring machine — he has 27 in 26 appearances for Bayern across all competitions — and gets a Celtic side which allowed 13.4 xG in the league stage (14th-most).

Picks made at 10:01 a.m. on 02/11/25.

Champions League round of 16 prop bets: Back Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane

The Champions League playoff stage begins this week as eight teams battle for the final four spots in the Round of 16.

The pregame narrative: A blockbuster matchup between Real Madrid and Manchester City kicks off at the Etihad on Tuesday and I expect Kylian Mbappe to be active. Then, back Harry Kane to score against Celtic.

Check out the best Champions League prop bets for the Round of 16 playoff.

Champions League prop bets

Go to full Champions League betting markets.

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Best Bet: Mbappe over 1.5 shots on target (-136)

Carlo Ancelotti preached patience after Mbappe missed a penalty in a 2-0 loss to Liverpool on Nov. 27.

It was a low point for the French superstar fighting through it with his new club.

But great managers tend to get the best out of their players and Mbappe turned a corner for Los Blancos to start the new year.

Mbappe has scored nine goals in his last eight games.
He’s registered 17 shots on target in that span, clearing this mark six times.

Real Madrid owns the most star-studded lineup in Europe with Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo playing high in a 4-2-3-1 formation.

Mbappe spearheads that attack and should feast against a Manchester City side which is a shell of its former self right now.

The Citizens have been a defensive mess after losing Ballon d’Or winner Rodri to a torn ACL. Pep Guardiola gets some reinforcements with John Stones and Ruben Dias returning, though neither is in top form.

City was just battered 5-1 by Arsenal in the Premier League with Stones in the lineup. A few matches before that, it lost 4-2 to PSG in the UCL league stage.

Key stat: Mbappe has 67 SOT for Real Madrid, clearing this line in 22 of 34 games across all competitions.

Quick pick

Kane to score (-143): I don’t love these odds but you could argue they’re generous considering how lopsided this matchup could get.

Bayern’s offence was ever-threatening during the league stage but it squandered some big chances, which is why it’s in this playoff. The Bavarians currently lead in these key categories, per FotMob:

22.5 xG (1st)
68.9% possession (1st)
8.6 shots on target/game (1st)
41 big chances (1st)

Kane was at the forefront of that attack, netting six goals on 6.4 xG. He also led this tournament with eight goals last year.

The English national is a goalscoring machine — he has 27 in 26 appearances for Bayern across all competitions — and gets a Celtic side which allowed 13.4 xG in the league stage (14th-most).

Picks made at 10:01 a.m. on 02/11/25.

Champions League round of 16 picks and predictions: Bet on Bayern Munich, PSG in first leg of playoffs

Eight teams play for the four remaining spots in the Champions League Round of 16.

The pregame narrative: Bayern Munich’s offence was firing on all cylinders during the league phase and I’m betting on that to continue against an inferior opponent. I also have a pick on PSG in its match against fellow French side Brest.

Check out the best Champions League predictions for the Round of 16 playoff.

Champions League predictions

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Best Bet: Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals (-109)

Despite finishing in a playoff position, Bayern Munich arguably has the best offence in the Champions League to this point.

Here are some of their offensive statistics and where they rank, per Fotmob:

22.5 xG (1st)
8.6 shots on target/game (1st)
41 big chances (1st)
2.5 goals/game (t-3rd)

Unfortunately, the side ranks tied for first in big chances missed (23) explaining why they fall short of the top-scoring offence.

However, Celtic is a team that provides an enticing matchup for this offence. The Scottish side allowed 13.4 xG which ranks in the bottom half of the UCL.

The Bhoys have done a good job beating the lower-tier squads to make it to this point but they’ve struggled against Europe’s elite.

They’re coming off a 4-2 loss against Aston Villa and were battered 7-1 by another German giant Borussia Dortmund back in October.

Key stat: Across all competitions, Bayern has scored three-plus goals in eight of its last 12 matches.

Quick pick

PSG -1.5 (-109): Two French sides meet in the first match of the Round of 16 playoff round.

In Ligue 1, we’ve seen this fixture recently. On Feb. 1, PSG easily beat Brest, 5-2.

This is nothing new as the Paris club has dominated its head-to-head record vs. its counterpart.

PSG covered this spread in both matches with Brest this season and has won 18 of the 20 meetings between these clubs. The other two games ended in draws.

Les Parisiens have won five of their last six matches by two-plus goals including a dominant 4-2 win over Manchester City in a UCL league phase fixture on Jan. 22.

Picks made at 3:20 p.m. on 02/10/25.