Category: Soccer

Prop bets and predictions for FA Cup fifth round: Back Alexander Isak and Ilkay Gundogan

FA Cup prop bets

I’m backing two players to produce in this weekend’s FA Cup fifth-round matches.

The pregame narrative: Alexander Isak is playing at an elite level for Newcastle United and I like him to make a goal contribution against Brighton on Sunday. Before that, back Ilkay Gundogan to record a shot on target for Manchester City.

Check out the best FA Cup prop bets for the fifth round.

FA Cup prop bets

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Best Bet: Isak to score or give an assist (-136)

Isak snapped a three-game goalless drought with a brace against Nottingham Forest on Feb. 23, marking his third this calendar year.

The Swedish striker now has 16 goals in his last 16 starts across all competitions with three assists mixed in. Isak has cashed this bet 11 times in that span and is making a strong case to be the No. 3 player in the EPL behind Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland.

Check out how he stacks up against the rest of the Premiership, with stats provided by FotMob:

  • 24 goals+assists (second)
  • 19 goals (third)
  • 15.1 xG (third)
  • 0.83 xG + xA per 90 (third)

Isak is a threat whenever he’s on the pitch and is in a good spot to produce at home against Brighton.

The Seagulls rank a middling 11th in xG conceded (38.6) in the EPL. They’ve allowed an average of 1.71 goals in 14 road games across all competitions.

Key stat: Isak was held off the score sheet against Brighton earlier this year but had seven shots, four of which found the target.

Quick pick

Gundogan over 0.5 shots on target (+132): The FA Cup is Manchester City’s last hope at hardware this season, and it should at least reach the quarterfinal given its fifth-round draw.

The Citizens take on Plymouth Argyle F.C., which sit 22nd in the Championship and are in danger of relegation to Football League One.

Plymouth has conceded 68 goals, which is by far the most of any Championship side.

Gundogan isn’t the player he used to be, but chances should be plentiful for anyone wearing the Sky Blue on Saturday.

The 34-year-old German national is well-rested after coming off the bench in each of City’s last two fixtures. One shot on target isn’t asking much.

Picks made at 3:38 p.m. on 02/28/25.

EPL Matchday 27 picks and predictions: Take the over in Tottenham vs. Man City, back Everton

EPL predictions

I’ve got two picks as the Premier League returns for a mid-week slate starting on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Everton has been in solid form and I expect it to pick up points on the road against Brentford on Wednesday. Elsewhere, look for Tottenham and Manchester City to provide fireworks in London.

Check out our EPL Matchday 27 predictions.

EPL Matchday 27 predictions

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Best Bet: Everton to win or tie (-134)

The hottest team in England isn’t Liverpool or Arsenal, but rather Everton.

The Toffees have been surging under David Moyes, posting a. 4-2-1 record since he took over as manager for Sean Dyche in early January.

That includes a recent 2-2 draw against Manchester United and, more impressively, a 2-2 draw against Liverpool in the Merseyside Derby.

The only match Moyes failed to pick up points in was a 1-0 loss to Aston Villa in his first game as a manager (while posting a nearly identical xG to Villa). Since then, he’s cashed this wager in six straight contests.

On Wednesday, Everton hits the road to take on a strong Brentford side. The Bees are 7-4-2 at home but that still means opponents are cashing this wager 46.1% of the time.

Brentford has conceded the seventh-most xG (41.4), according to FotMob. I expect Everton — which is averaging 2.3 goals across its last six games — to get on the board.

Everton and Brentford drew the reverse fixture, 0-0, back in November.

Key stat: Everton has a +3.8 xG differential under Moyes, per FBRef.

Quick pick

Tottenham/Manchester City over 3.5 goals (-125): This season has been a disaster for both clubs, which have struggled to defend following a rash of injuries.

Scoring hasn’t been a problem for either side, though, and all signs point to a barn burner on Wednesday.

  • Tottenham ranks 16th in xG conceded (44.0) and sixth in xG created (44.3).
  • Man City ranks 10th in xG conceded (36.0) and fourth in xG created (47.5)

Tottenham thrashed Man City 4-0 at the Etihad in the reverse fixture earlier this season, showing how dangerous the Postecoglou’s attack can be.

Spurs also scored four goals in their most recent fixture, a 4-1 win over Ipswich Town.

City was just blanked, 2-0, by Liverpool but had gone over this total in six straight league games beforehand while averaging 3.3 goals.

Four of the last six meetings between these clubs have gone over 3.5 goals,

Picks made at 10:43 a.m. on 02/24/25.

EPL Matchday 27 picks and predictions: Take the over in Tottenham vs. Man City, back Everton

EPL predictions

I’ve got two picks as the Premier League returns for a mid-week slate starting on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Everton has been in solid form and I expect it to pick up points on the road against Brentford on Wednesday. Elsewhere, look for Tottenham and Manchester City to provide fireworks in London.

Check out our EPL Matchday 27 predictions.

EPL Matchday 27 predictions

Go to full Premier League betting markets.

Embed: #110100

Best Bet: Everton to win or tie (-127)

The hottest team in England isn’t Liverpool or Arsenal, but rather Everton.

The Toffees have been surging under David Moyes, posting a. 4-2-1 record since he took over as manager for Sean Dyche in early January.

That includes a recent 2-2 draw against Manchester United and, more impressively, a 2-2 draw against Liverpool in the Merseyside Derby.

The only match Moyes failed to pick up points in was a 1-0 loss to Aston Villa in his first game as a manager (while posting a nearly identical xG to Villa). Since then, he’s cashed this wager in six straight contests.

On Wednesday, Everton hits the road to take on a strong Brentford side. The Bees are 7-4-2 at home but that still means opponents are cashing this wager 46.1% of the time.

Brentford has conceded the seventh-most xG (41.4), according to FotMob. I expect Everton — which is averaging 2.3 goals across its last six games — to get on the board.

Everton and Brentford drew the reverse fixture, 0-0, back in November.

Key stat: Everton has a +3.8 xG differential under Moyes, per FBRef.

Quick pick

Tottenham/Manchester City over 3.5 goals (-118): This season has been a disaster for both clubs, which have struggled to defend following a rash of injuries.

Scoring hasn’t been a problem for either side, though, and all signs point to a barn burner on Wednesday.

  • Tottenham ranks 16th in xG conceded (44.0) and sixth in xG created (44.3).
  • Man City ranks 10th in xG conceded (36.0) and fourth in xG created (47.5)

Tottenham thrashed Man City 4-0 at the Etihad in the reverse fixture earlier this season, showing how dangerous the Postecoglou’s attack can be.

Spurs also scored four goals in their most recent fixture, a 4-1 win over Ipswich Town.

City was just blanked, 2-0, by Liverpool but had gone over this total in six straight league games beforehand while averaging 3.3 goals.

Four of the last six meetings between these clubs have gone over 3.5 goals,

Picks made at 10:43 a.m. on 02/24/25.

EPL Matchday 26 picks and predictions: Bet the under in Manchester City vs. Liverpool, back Everton

EPL Matchday 26 picks

The Premier League reaches Matchday 26 and I have two picks for this weekend.

The pregame narrative: Manchester City and Liverpool are the top-two scoring teams in England but I’m opting to side with defence in a matchup between powerhouse opponents. My other pick is on Everton which has been red-hot since making a managerial change.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 26 picks.

EPL Matchday 26 picks

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Best Bet: Manchester City/Liverpool under 3.5 goals (-125)

Let’s start by noting that Liverpool scores the most goals (2.4) per game in the EPL while Manchester City scores the second most (2.1).

So why take the under? Well, the first game played between these sides on Dec. 1 ended in 2-0 in favour of Liverpool. In that match, the Reds held Man City to just two shots on goal.

Each of the two meetings last season also finished below this total.

According to Fotmob, Liverpool is tied for the most clean sheets (10), concedes the second-fewest goals (1.0) per game, and has the second-fewest xG against (24.1).

I expect a more cautious approach from the Reds on the road where I believe they can shut down a middling Manchester City side.

Key stat: Liverpool has allowed one or fewer goals in 17 of 26 EPL games this season. It also has a clean sheet victory in the UCL league phase vs. Real Madrid.

Quick pick

Everton to win (+155): This is as simple as buying in on England’s hottest team.

Everton parted ways with manager Sean Dyche in early January and it appears a move should’ve been made earlier.

The club brought back David Moyes and it’s working wonders so far. Moyes managed Everton from 2002-2013 and he had a winning record during that tenure (218-139-161).

Since rejoining as manager, Moyes’ group is 4-1-1 in the EPL with a draw in the Merseyside Derby that sent Everton’s fans into a frenzy.

https://twitter.com/thecasualultra/status/1889983141705908430

It’s hard to blame them after their side’s been fighting to avoid relegation for the past few seasons.

And now the Toffees are climbing the EPL standings, currently sitting in 14th place, one position ahead of Manchester United.

The Red Devils have been struggling mightily, losing three of their past four Premier League fixtures.

I would’ve avoided Everton like the plague just over a month ago and now the side found a new gear and is looking like the Moyes-led teams of years past.

Picks made at 2:22 p.m. on 02/20/25.

EPL Matchday 26 picks and predictions: Bet the under in Manchester City vs. Liverpool, back Everton

EPL Matchday 26 picks

The Premier League reaches Matchday 26 and I have two picks for this weekend.

The pregame narrative: Manchester City and Liverpool are the top-two scoring teams in England but I’m opting to side with defence in a matchup between powerhouse opponents. My other pick is on Everton which has been red-hot since making a managerial change.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 26 picks.

EPL Matchday 26 picks

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Embed: #109895

Best Bet: Manchester City/Liverpool under 3.5 goals (-127)

Let’s start by noting that Liverpool scores the most goals (2.4) per game in the EPL while Manchester City scores the second most (2.1).

So why take the under? Well, the first game played between these sides on Dec. 1 ended in 2-0 in favour of Liverpool. In that match, the Reds held Man City to just two shots on goal.

Each of the two meetings last season also finished below this total.

According to Fotmob, Liverpool is tied for the most clean sheets (10), concedes the second-fewest goals (1.0) per game, and has the second-fewest xG against (24.1).

I expect a more cautious approach from the Reds on the road where I believe they can shut down a middling Manchester City side.

Key stat: Liverpool has allowed one or fewer goals in 17 of 26 EPL games this season. It also has a clean sheet victory in the UCL league phase vs. Real Madrid.

Quick pick

Everton to win (+160): This is as simple as buying in on England’s hottest team.

Everton parted ways with manager Sean Dyche in early January and it appears a move should’ve been made earlier.

The club brought back David Moyes and it’s working wonders so far. Moyes managed Everton from 2002-2013 and he had a winning record during that tenure (218-139-161).

Since rejoining as manager, Moyes’ group is 4-1-1 in the EPL with a draw in the Merseyside Derby that sent Everton’s fans into a frenzy.

https://twitter.com/thecasualultra/status/1889983141705908430

It’s hard to blame them after their side’s been fighting to avoid relegation for the past few seasons.

And now the Toffees are climbing the EPL standings, currently sitting in 14th place, one position ahead of Manchester United.

The Red Devils have been struggling mightily, losing three of their past four Premier League fixtures.

I would’ve avoided Everton like the plague just over a month ago and now the side found a new gear and is looking like the Moyes-led teams of years past.

Picks made at 2:22 p.m. on 02/20/25.

Premier League Matchday 26 prop bets: Back Mathys Tel and Mohamed Salah to contribute

Premier League prop bets

I’m backing two players to contribute to a goal in this weekend’s Premier League action.

The pregame narrative: Mathys Tel has only been a Hotspur for a few weeks but has made his presence felt. I expect the youngster to register two shots on target against Ipswich Town and am also backing Mohamed Salah to score against Manchester City.

Check out the best Premier League prop bets for Matchday 26.

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Best Bet: Salah to score (-108)

This is a massive game for Liverpool, and I expect the club’s top man to come through.

Salah has been nothing short of incredible this season, logging 23 goals and 14 assists in 25 league matches. Both of those marks pace the Premiership.

He’s also right at the top of the league in these categories, according to Fotmob:

  • 1st in expected goals (19.4)
  • 1st in expected goals on target (22.9)
  • 2nd in big chances created (18)

Salah is a good bet to find the score sheet in any matchup, and it’s not like Manchester City is playing great football.

The Citizens’ defence has fallen apart without Ballon d’Or winner Rodri in the midfield and ranks a disappointing 11th in expected goals allowed (35.3).

They’ve given up nine goals in their last three matches (as of Feb. 18) and are due to face Real Madrid in the Champions League knockout stage on Wednesday.

Pep Guardiola will be sure to throw everything at the wall in that match and I expect Man City to be worn down for its match against Liverpool.

Key stat: Salah’s 23 goals are four more than Erling Haaland who sits in second place.

Quick pick

Tel 2+ shots on target (+100): Reports came out on Wednesday that Tottenham is growing increasingly concerned with the production of Heung-min Son.

Luckily for Spurs, it appears they have the heir apparent with Tel.

The 19-year-old Frenchmen was brought in on loan from Bayern Munich with an option to buy after the season. He’s played in three games so far and has looked fantastic.

Tel scored Tottenham’s only goal in an FA Cup fourth-round match against Aston Villa and logged a team-high seven shots — three of which found the target — against Manchester United on Feb. 16.

Ipswich Town is fighting in a relegation battle, having conceded 50 goals, which is the fourth-most in the Premier League. It’s also conceded the second-most xG (51.1).

Tel has earned Agne Postecoglou’s trust and is slated to start at striker, according to RotoWire. This is a great matchup for him to stay in form.

Picks made at 10:22 a.m. on 02/20/25.

Premier League Matchday 26 prop bets: Back Mathys Tel and Mohamed Salah to contribute

Premier League prop bets

I’m backing two players to contribute to a goal in this weekend’s Premier League action.

The pregame narrative: Mathys Tel has only been a Hotspur for a few weeks but has made his presence felt. I expect the youngster to either score or give an assist against Ipswich Town and am betting on Mohamed Salah to do the same against Manchester City.

Check out the best Premier League prop bets for Matchday 26.

Premier League prop bets

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Embed: #109818

Best Bet: Salah to score or give an assist (-129)

This is a massive game for Liverpool, and I expect the club’s top man to come through.

Salah has been nothing short of incredible this season, logging 23 goals and 14 assists in 25 league matches. Both of those marks pace the Premiership.

He’s also right at the top of the league in these categories, according to Fotmob:

  • 1st in expected goals (19.4)
  • 1st in expected goals on target (22.9)
  • 2nd in big chances created (18)
  • 3rd in expected assists (6.0)

Salah is a good bet to find the score sheet in any matchup, and it’s not like Manchester City is playing great football.

The Citizens’ defence has fallen apart without Ballon d’Or winner Rodri in the midfield and ranks a disappointing 11th in expected goals allowed (35.3).

They’ve given up nine goals in their last three matches (as of Feb. 18) and are due to face Real Madrid in the Champions League knockout stage on Wednesday.

Pep Guardiola will be sure to throw everything at the wall in that match and I expect Man City to be worn down for its match against Liverpool.

Key stat: Salah’s 37 goals and assists are 15 more than Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak, who are tied for second place.

Quick pick

Tel to score or give an assist (+133): Reports came out on Wednesday that Tottenham is growing increasingly concerned with the production of Heung-min Son.

Luckily for Spurs, it appears they have the heir apparent with Tel.

The 19-year-old Frenchmen was brought in on loan from Bayern Munich with an option to buy after the season. He’s played in three games so far and has looked fantastic.

Tel scored Tottenham’s only goal in an FA Cup fourth-round match against Aston Villa and logged a team-high seven shots — three of which found the target — against Manchester United on Feb. 16.

Ipswich Town is fighting in a relegation battle, having conceded 50 goals, which is the fourth-most in the Premier League. It’s also conceded the second-most xG (51.1).

Tel has earned Agne Postecoglou’s trust and is slated to start at striker, according to RotoWire. This is a great matchup for him to stay in form.

Picks made at 12:35 p.m. on 02/19/25.

Champions League playoff picks and predictions Feb. 19: Expect goals in Real Madrid vs. Manchester City

Champions League playoff picks

The final four remaining spots in the Champions League Round of 16 will be decided on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Juventus has had an underwhelming season by its standard, but the club is heating up and I predict a strong defensive showing on the road. Because of that, I’m taking the under in this matchup. I also like the over when Real Madrid faces Manchester City.

Check out the best Champions League predictions for the Round of 16 playoffs.

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Best Bet: PSV/Juventus under 2.5 goals (+115)

Juventus finished 20th in the UCL league stage and currently sits fourth in Serie A, but things are turning around as the games become more important.

In the first leg of the playoff round, Juventus beat PSV, 2-1. In that game, the Italian club recorded eight shots on goal compared to the Dutch side’s two.

I Bianconeri followed that performance with a 1-0 win on the weekend in Serie A over second-place Inter Milan.

Juventus has now won four straight games in February across all competitions, and I think that momentum is important leading into this second leg.

Since the Italian giant is -286 to qualify, I’ll make the prediction that Thiago Motta’s side plays a shutdown defensive game on the road.

The first game went over this total but Juventus had a majority of the offence. There’s no need to push to score here as a 0-0 or 1-1 draw does the trick.

Key stat: Juventus is tied for ninth in clean sheets (three).

Quick pick

Real Madrid/Manchester City over 3.5 goals (-125): I’m not sure who’s going to qualify here but I’m expecting more than a few goals.

Real Madrid took the first leg, 3-2, with some late-match heroics from Jude Bellingham. Now, Man City will be pressing to score on the road.

And I’m not counting the English side out.

  • Man City has seven of 11 matches since the calendar flipped to 2025.
  • 10 of those contests had four or more total goals.

Real Madrid can score, too. Among UCL clubs, it ranks third in goals per match (2.6), while Manchester City ranks seventh (2.2).

Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe are two of the top strikers in the world, and that’s just the beginning of the offensive talent these teams have to offer.

I don’t think I’m crazy to think another explosive contest is in the works with a spot in the UCL Round of 16 on the line.

Picks made at 12:54 p.m. on 02/18/25.

Champions League playoff picks and predictions Feb. 19: Expect goals in Real Madrid vs. Manchester City

Champions League playoff picks

The final four remaining spots in the Champions League Round of 16 will be decided on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Juventus has had an underwhelming season by its standard, but the club is heating up and I predict a strong defensive showing on the road. Because of that, I’m taking the under in this matchup. I also like the over when Real Madrid faces Manchester City.

Check out the best Champions League predictions for the Round of 16 playoffs.

Champions League predictions

Go to full Champions League betting markets.

Best Bet: PSV/Juventus under 2.5 goals (+117)

Embed: #109726

Juventus finished 20th in the UCL league stage and currently sits fourth in Serie A, but things are turning around as the games become more important.

In the first leg of the playoff round, Juventus beat PSV, 2-1. In that game, the Italian club recorded eight shots on goal compared to the Dutch side’s two.

I Bianconeri followed that performance with a 1-0 win on the weekend in Serie A over second-place Inter Milan.

Juventus has now won four straight games in February across all competitions, and I think that momentum is important leading into this second leg.

Since the Italian giant is -286 to qualify, I’ll make the prediction that Thiago Motta’s side plays a shutdown defensive game on the road.

The first game went over this total but Juventus had a majority of the offence. There’s no need to push to score here as a 0-0 or 1-1 draw does the trick.

Key stat: Juventus is tied for ninth in clean sheets (three).

Quick pick

Real Madrid/Manchester City over 3.5 goals (-121): I’m not sure who’s going to qualify here but I’m expecting more than a few goals.

Real Madrid took the first leg, 3-2, with some late-match heroics from Jude Bellingham. Now, Man City will be pressing to score on the road.

And I’m not counting the English side out.

  • Man City has seven of 11 matches since the calendar flipped to 2025.
  • 10 of those contests had four or more total goals.

Real Madrid can score, too. Among UCL clubs, it ranks third in goals per match (2.6), while Manchester City ranks seventh (2.2).

Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe are two of the top strikers in the world, and that’s just the beginning of the offensive talent these teams have to offer.

I don’t think I’m crazy to think another explosive contest is in the works with a spot in the UCL Round of 16 on the line.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. on 02/18/25.

Champions League playoff picks and predictions Feb. 18: Bet on Benfica to win second leg of knockout phase

Champions League predictions

Eight teams will vie for a spot in the Champions League Round of 16 on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Six of the eight Champions League matchups are separated by just one goal, leaving plenty of drama for the second legs. Benfica enters with a one-goal lead over AS Monaco, and I expect the former to beat the latter. Elsewhere, I’m taking the under between Bayern Munich and Celtic.

Check out the best Champions League predictions for the knockout phase playoffs.

Champions League predictions

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Best Bet: Benfica to win (-118)

Benfica eked out a 1-0 victory over AS Monaco in the first meeting and I’m bullish on its chances of earning another win in the second leg.

The Eagles won thanks to a goal early in the second half from Vangelis Pavlidis, but the squad had plenty of opportunities to extend the lead.

Benfica held a significant advantage in the following categories:

  • Shot attempts (23-6)
  • Attacks (59-32)
  • Corners (7-2)

Benfica enters this contest in fine form, too, winning each of its last five outings.

Monaco started the contest strong thanks to an impassioned crowd at Stade Louis-II, but the club faded hard after the half. With the scene shifting to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, I’m betting on a convincing effort from the home side.

Key stat: Benfica has already defeated Monaco twice in Champions League action in 2024-25.

Quick pick

Bayern Munich vs. Celtic under 3.5 goals (+110): I’m fine taking the plus-money odds with the under for this total.

Bayern Munich would be feeling better about its chances of advancing if not for conceding a late goal to Daizen Maeda in the first leg. The German side is still in the driver’s seat with a 2-1 edge, though, and I expect the club to rely on its defensive prowess to advance.

The Bavarians have conceded just 19 goals across 22 Bundesliga matches this year, proving to be a formidable defensive side.

Although Celtic’s offence is lighting up the Scottish Premiership, fans and bettors have come to expect more muted outputs in Champions League play. The Bhoys have gone under this total in five of their last seven Champions League matches.

Picks made at 2:26 p.m. on 02/17/25.