Category: Soccer

I have three plus-money picks to share for this weekend’s loaded European soccer slate.

The pre-weekend narrative: In England, I expect Aston Villa to continue its win streak over West Ham, a side in the relegation battle. Also on Sunday, look for Marcus Thuram to contribute in the final third for Inter Milan.

Check out this weekend’s best European soccer picks and predictions for games on Dec. 14, featuring a best bet for Alaves vs. Real Madrid.

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Soccer picks: Dec. 14

Alaves vs. Real Madrid (Dec. 14, 3 p.m. ET)

Best bet: Under 2.5 goals (+104)

Real Madrid has played a lot of soccer over the past few weeks, and at the time of writing, it is currently playing Manchester City in the Champions League.

That’s an important fixture that should be heavily prioritized over this Sunday’s match with Alaves.

Meaning Los Blancos could start a lot of subs to give some of their normal starters a breather in their upcoming match.

Either way, Alaves should be up to the task of limiting Madrid’s offence.

That’s because it is among Spain’s best defensive sides. Alaves allows the fourth-fewest goals against (1.0 per match).

-> Bet on Alaves vs. Real Madrid

And it scores even less. Alaves scores 0.9 goals per game, which also ranks in the bottom five.

Last Sunday, Real Madrid was shut out, 2-0, at home by Celta Vigo. Though I don’t have faith in Alaves scoring multiple goals, I think the side can replicate the defensive effort shown by another mid-table team.

Key stat: Alaves has a 10-5 record on this under in La Liga this season.

EPL prediction

Matchup: West Ham vs. Aston Villa (Dec. 14, 9:00 a.m. ET)

Aston Villa to win (+104): Aston Villa has all the momentum ahead of this matchup.

• The side has won five straight matches, catapulting into third in the Premier League.

• That includes beating Arsenal 2-1 last weekend. That was just the Gunners’ second loss all season.

On the other side, there’s West Ham, the 18th-place team with three wins so far.

Things have been tough for the Hammers, who own the third-worst goal differential in England (-12). They also have a measly 0-5-3 record against teams inside the top 10.

I don’t want to overthink this one, so I’ll back Aston Villa to pick up a sixth straight win at plus money.

-> Bet on Sunday’s EPL matches

Serie A best bet

Matchup: Genoa vs. Inter Milan (Dec. 14, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Thuram to score or give an assist (+100): Inter is the most explosive team in Serie A, so I want to back one of its top creators.

• Inter scores 2.3 goals per game, almost a goal more than AC Milan, which scores the second most (1.6).

• Thuram has four goals and an assist in nine Serie A matches, but he caught fire recently. He has three goals in his last three games.

• It was about time Thuram started producing. He is extremely dangerous, ranking in the 96th percentile for shot-creating actions per 90 (any action that leads directly to a shot).

That brings me to his opponent, Genoa. The side allows the fourth-most goals per game (1.5).

Everything points to a big offensive performance from Inter, and I like the value on Thuram getting involved.

Soccer picks made at 1:58 p.m. on Dec. 10, 2025.

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One Canadian striker contributes to this weekend’s European soccer picks.

The pre-weekend narrative: Jonathan David should see his opportunity increase now that one of Juventus’ top strikers will be sidelined for the foreseeable future. In Spain, expect a lot of goals between Real Madrid and Celta Vigo.

Check out this weekend’s best European soccer picks and predictions for games on Dec. 7, featuring a best bet for Fulham vs. Crystal Palace.

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Soccer picks: Dec. 7

Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo (Dec. 7, 3 p.m. ET)

Best bet: Over 3.5 goals (+100)

Real Madrid is second in La Liga but is showing some cracks defensively. The side has conceded at least a goal in four of its past six matches.

The away team, Celta Vigo, has scored at least one goal in 19 of 21 matches across all competitions this season.

Because of that, I believe Celta Vigo can score here, but if not, there’s potential for Los Blancos to cover this total on their own.

-> Bet on Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo

• Real Madrid ranks second in La Liga behind Barcelona with 32 goals scored. When Celta Vigo played Barcelona, the side lost 4-2.

• When it comes to xG, Real Madrid leads Spain with 35.7.

Kylian Mbappe leads Real Madrid’s fierce attack with 16 goals, double the amount of anyone else in La Liga.

If Celta Vigo can contribute even one goal here, I have confidence that Los Blancos can take care of the rest. But don’t count out the possibility of Real Madrid scoring four or more here.

Key stat: This over is 7-7 in Real Madrid’s past 14 games.

EPL prediction

Matchup: Fulham vs. Crystal Palace (Dec. 7, 11:30 a.m. ET)

Under 2.5 goals (-132): Crystal Palace is currently in the top five in the EPL standings thanks to an outstanding defence.

• It’s allowed 11 goals in 14 matches played this season. Only first-place Arsenal has conceded fewer.

• The side has seven clean sheets so far.

With that comes a rather inconsistent offence. Palace is tied for the second-fewest goals scored among the top 10 teams.

That brings me to the home team, Fulham. The Cottagers are in 15th place but have been above-average defensively.

Fulham has conceded the seventh-fewest xG (18.0), per Fotmob. For reference, Crystal Palace has conceded 16.7.

This has all the makings of a slow-paced game between two defensively sound teams that can struggle on offence.

Even one side having a sluggish performance should be enough for this under to cash.

-> Bet on Sunday’s EPL matches

Serie A best bet

Matchup: Napoli vs. Juventus (Dec. 7, 2:45 p.m. ET)

Jonathan David to score or give an assist (+125): David has gotten off to a slow start with Juventus, but with the injury to Dusan Vlahovic, there should be more minutes available for the Canadian.

And a chance is all David needs. He’s proven he can be productive at the highest level, recording at least 20 goals/assists in his final three seasons with Lille in Ligue 1.

There is a lot more competition for playing time at Juventus, but there’s no doubt he can create goals when given the opportunity.

Over the past year, David ranks in the 88th percentile among forwards for shot-creating actions per 90 (3.19). That stat tracks any action leading directly to a shot.

I’m not sure why the Canadian isn’t being used by his new team. He was one of Europe’s most clinical strikers across all competitions over recent seasons.

With the added opportunity, I expect David to shine this Sunday.

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Soccer picks made at 3:11 p.m. on Dec. 5, 2025.