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Champions League quarterfinal prop picks: Back Robert Lewandowski and fade Goncalo Ramos

I’ve got one prop pick from both of Wednesday’s Champions League quarterfinal games.

The pregame narrative: Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski is one of the game’s greatest strikers, and PSG’s Goncalo Ramos is hoping to be next up. I’m betting Lewandowski to score against Borussia Dortmund and am fading Ramos against Aston Villa.

Check out the best Champions League prop picks for the games on April 9.

Champions League prop picks

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Best Bet: Lewandowski to score (-108)

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Lewandowski became a superstar at Borussia Dortmund, and then tormented them for years as a member of Bayern Munich.

Now, he faces his old club yet again with Barcelona and is ready to inflict more pain.

The 36-year-old striker is still scoring at an elite rate across all competitions:

25 goals in 29 La Liga games
9 goals in 10 Champions League games
3 goals in 4 Copa del Rey games

Lewandowski ranks in the 99th percentile for non-penalty xG per 90 (0.70), according to FBRef. That is compared against his positional peers in the Big 5 Leagues, UCL and over the last year. Erling Haaland (0.70) also sits in the 99th percentile, for reference.

There is no reason to believe he’ll slow down against BVB, which is conceding 1.53 goals per game in the Bundesliga.

Key stat: Lewandowski has 27 goals in 27 matches against Borussia Dortmund.

Quick pick

Ramos under 1.5 SOT (-148): Ramos will need a decade-plus of elite productivity to reach Lewandowski’s level – but the 23-year-old has turned heads this season.

Ramos has 14 goals in 30 games (13 starts) for PSG. The Portuguese national has been one of the most productive players on a 90-minute basis in this tournament, per FotMob:

1.16 xG per 90 (first)
1.48 goals per 90 (second)
2.5 shots on target per 90 (second)
4.5 shots per 90 (eighth)

So why am I fading him? Well, Ramos isn’t expected to start as Luis Enrique prefers to use Ousman Dembele as a false nine.

If Ramos doesn’t see the pitch, this bet will void. If he does play, it will be in limited minutes, and clearing this wager will be a tall order.

He has only cleared this line in two of 17 games where he hasn’t started.

Champions League prop picks made at 1:40 p.m. on 04/08/25.

Arsenal vs. Real Madrid Champions League quarterfinal SGP predictions April 8: Tail Bukayo Saka and Vinicius Junior at +310

The Champions League kicks off quarterfinal action on Tuesday with the first leg between Arsenal and Real Madrid.

The pregame narrative: These teams have a ton of combined firepower, so I’ll back both to score in this +310 SGP, which also includes picks on Bukayo Saka and Vinicius Junior.

Check out my Arsenal vs. Real Madrid SGP predictions for April 8.

Arsenal/Real Madrid boost: Bet on +226 offer featuring Kylian Mbappe

Arsenal vs. Real Madrid predictions

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Parlay: Both teams to score | Saka over 1.5 shots | Vinicius over 0.5 SOT (+310)

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Both teams to score (-105): Real Madrid’s squad is brimming with talent, especially on the offensive end.

Take a look at their offensive stats in the Champions League, per FotMob:

2nd in xG (26.7)
3rd in chances (46)
3rd in shots on target (6.8/match)

Despite all that, it’s actually Arsenal who scores more goals per game (2.5). That ranks second behind Barcelona.

This bet has cashed in 12 of Los Blancos’ last 15 matches. During that time, their games have finished with an average of 3.33 goals.

Real Madrid also conceded in 14 of those contests.

On the other side, Arsenal has Saka back, which is a huge plus for their offence. The side has scored three goals in total in the two games since his return. This bet cashed in both contests.

Champions League SGP legs

Saka over 1.5 shots (-286): Speaking of Saka, the Englishman was very reliable against this line before getting injured.

The last time he played a full 90 minutes was Dec. 14. Before that, the winger had cleared this line in 19 of 25 matches across all competitions this season.

This past weekend, he played a full half against Everton and cleared this line with two shots in his limited minutes.

Manager Mikel Arteta said Saka is in a “much better place” after back-to-back stints of increased playing time.

The hope is that Arsenal’s best player worked his way back into the starting lineup on Tuesday. At the very least, Saka will have a half or more of soccer to clear this modest total.

Vinicius over 0.5 SOT (-137): This line doesn’t make much sense to me.

Vinicius has appeared in two matches so far in April, totalling 12 shot attempts (seven on target).

Overall, he’s cleared this total in 14 of his last 20 matches.

As mentioned earlier, Real Madrid ranks third in shots on target, and Vinicius joins Kylian Mbappe to make up arguably the most threatening forward partnership in the sport.

Mbappe carries a -315 price tag to record a shot on target. I’d rather go with the Brazilian at a much more reasonable price.

Arsenal vs. Real Madrid predictions made at 10:26 a.m. on 04/07/25.

Champions League quarterfinal picks and predictions: Take PSG to win comfortably, the over in Arsenal vs. Real Madrid

The Champions League is down to eight teams, and there are some exciting matchups.

The pregame narrative: On Tuesday, back the over in the Arsenal and Real Madrid match at plus money. Later in the week, take PSG to win dominantly at home over Aston Villa.

Check out the best Champions League predictions for the quarterfinal first leg.

Champions League predictions

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Best Bet: PSG halftime/full time (-106)

For anyone who doesn’t know how this works, PSG needs to be leading at halftime and the final whistle for this bet to cash.

It’s a good way to find some value on the -250 favourites.

Aston Villa has had a great run at this competition, but unfortunately its luck is running out with this draw to face PSG.

PSG most recently beat EPL leader Liverpool on penalties in the second leg of their UCL match. After dropping the first matchup, 1-0, PSG scored early in the second leg to level the match on aggregate before winning in penalties.
PSG has the highest average FotMob rating (7.26) of any team that participated in the Champions League.

Aston Villa ranks 10th with an average rating of 7.01, the lowest of the eight remaining teams.

The English side is on track to miss qualifying for the Champions League next season, sitting sixth in the Premier League.

I expect the Ligue 1 champs to take advantage of playing the first leg at home.

Key stat: PSG has cashed this wager in five of its past seven Champions League games.

Quick pick

Arsenal/Read Madrid over 2.5 goals (+110): I really like the value here at plus money.

Real Madrid is a force on offence but can be vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball.

Across all competitions, seven of its past eight matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Los Blancos conceded in seven of those matches as well.

That includes a recent 4-4 draw in the Copa del Rey against Real Sociedad, which exemplifies the scoring potential any time Real Madrid takes the pitch.

Arsenal has conceded at least a goal in five of its last six games, and three of those matches went over this total.

In my opinion, this has the most scoring potential of any quarterfinal first leg and I want to take advantage.

Champions League predictions made at 12:56 p.m. on 04/07/25.

Champions League quarterfinal picks and predictions: Take PSG to win comfortably, the over in Arsenal vs. Real Madrid

The Champions League is down to eight teams, and there are some exciting matchups.

The pregame narrative: On Tuesday, back the over in the Arsenal and Real Madrid match at plus money. Later in the week, take PSG to win dominantly at home over Aston Villa.

Check out the best Champions League predictions for the quarterfinal first leg.

Champions League predictions

Go to full Champions League betting markets.

Best Bet: PSG halftime/full time (-108)

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For anyone who doesn’t know how this works, PSG needs to be leading at halftime and the final whistle for this bet to cash.

It’s a good way to find some value on the -240 favourites.

Aston Villa has had a great run at this competition, but unfortunately its luck is running out with this draw to face PSG.

PSG most recently beat EPL leader Liverpool on penalties in the second leg of their UCL match. After dropping the first matchup, 1-0, PSG scored early in the second leg to level the match on aggregate before winning in penalties.
PSG has the highest average FotMob rating (7.26) of any team that participated in the Champions League.

Aston Villa ranks 10th with an average rating of 7.01, the lowest of the eight remaining teams.

The English side is on track to miss qualifying for the Champions League next season, sitting sixth in the Premier League.

I expect the Ligue 1 champs to take advantage of playing the first leg at home.

Key stat: PSG has cashed this wager in five of its past seven Champions League games.

Quick pick

Arsenal/Read Madrid over 2.5 goals (+132): I really like the value here at plus money.

Real Madrid is a force on offence but can be vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball.

Across all competitions, seven of its past eight matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Los Blancos conceded in seven of those matches as well.

That includes a recent 4-4 draw in the Copa del Rey against Real Sociedad, which exemplifies the scoring potential any time Real Madrid takes the pitch.

Arsenal has conceded at least a goal in five of its last six games, and three of those matches went over this total.

In my opinion, this has the most scoring potential of any quarterfinal first leg and I want to take advantage.

Champions League predictions made at 2:48 p.m. on 04/06/25.

Champions League quarterfinal schedule and playoff odds: Arsenal, Real Madrid meet in high-stakes matchup

The Champions League quarterfinal schedule is set, and soccer fans are in for some excellent viewing.

The pregame narrative: Arsenal vs. Real Madrid is a final-worthy matchup, making this battle of titans a true treat. Bayern Munich, FC Barcelona, and Paris Saint-Germain all also compete for a spot in the semis, and each enters the quarters as a sizeable favourite

Check out the latest Champions League schedule for April 8-9.

Champions League schedule: Quarterfinal

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Arsenal vs. Real Madrid

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Inter Milan vs. Bayern Munich

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Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa

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Borussia Dortmund vs. FC Barcelona

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Betting insights

Arsenal met very little resistance in its effort to qualify for the quarters. A 7-1 victory over PSV Eindhoven in the first leg left little doubt — and that was without Bukayo Saka, who is back in the lineup. Real Madrid, meanwhile, needed penalties to slip past Atletico Madrid. Kylian Mbappe leads all players in the competition with 25 shots on target.

Bayern Munich was flawless in the Round of 16, blanking Leverkusen 5-0 on aggregate. Inter Milan, meanwhile, bested Feyenoord 4-1 thanks to a pair of goals from Marcus Thuram. Bayern’s Joshua Kimmich has been incredible as a playmaker, leading the Champions League with six assists.

Paris Saint-Germain is battle-tested after escaping a stiff test from a talented Liverpool by the narrowest of margins. Les Parisiens enter the quarters as favourites against Aston Villa, who cruised past Club Brugge. Marquinhos leads the Champions League in balls recovered (91).

FC Barcelona survived a red-card scare in the first leg of its matchup against Benfica, earning a 1-0 win. Barca won 3-1 in the second leg to avoid further drama. Borussia Dortmund used two second-half goals in the second leg of its aggregate with Lille to advance. Raphina leads the Champions League in goals (11).

Premier League predictions Matchday 31: Take Liverpool to win, Marmoush to stay hot for Manchester City

The Premier League wastes no time and rolls straight into Matchday 31 this weekend.

The pregame narrative: Liverpool has seen some disappointing results in other competitions recently but is still dominating league competition. I’ll back the Reds to win over Fulham while taking a shot on Omar Marmoush to score for Manchester City.

Check out the best Premier League predictions for Matchday 31.

Premier League predictions

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Best Bet: Liverpool to win (-118)

In the span of a week, Liverpool was eliminated from the EFL Cup and the Champions League.

All that’s left is the Premiership and I believe a statement win is in the works for the leaders this weekend.

Liverpool has won 10 of its 15 road games.

Fulham has lost two of its last three home games.

The Reds are undefeated in the league since Sept. 14, winning 19 of those 26 matches (73.1%) straight up.

There is no beating Liverpool right now. A draw is in the cards, but the Reds have won four straight league matches. I’ll ride their momentum into a match with a struggling Fulham side.

Key stat: Liverpool ranks first in goals for (2.3), while allowing the second-fewest goals against (0.9), per Fotmob.

Quick pick

Marmoush to score (+120): Erling Haaland is going to be sidelined for the foreseeable future. That leaves a big hole for Marmoush to fill in Manchester City’s offence.

He did a great job, however, against Leicester City on the weekend. Marmoush started the match and recorded nine shots (three on target), leading to a goal.

In fact, the Egyptian scored in his previous three matches, even though he only started two of them.

Marmoush has five EPL goals in eight appearances this season (seven starts) but has been stashed behind Haaland.

With his superstar teammate out of the picture for the time being, it’s the forward’s time to shine.

Manchester United concedes 1.4 goals per match, which is a below-average scoring defence.

Premier League predictions made at 9:35 a.m. on 04/04/25.

Premier League predictions Matchday 31: Take Liverpool to win, Marmoush to stay hot for Manchester City

The Premier League wastes no time and rolls straight into Matchday 31 this weekend.

The pregame narrative: Liverpool has seen some disappointing results in other competitions recently but is still dominating league competition. I’ll back the Reds to win over Fulham while taking a shot on Omar Marmoush to score for Manchester City.

Check out the best Premier League predictions for Matchday 31.

Premier League predictions

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Best Bet: Liverpool to win (-113)

In the span of a week, Liverpool was eliminated from the EFL Cup and the Champions League.

All that’s left is the Premiership and I believe a statement win is in the works for the leaders this weekend.

Liverpool has won 10 of its 15 road games.

Fulham has lost two of its last three home games.

The Reds are undefeated in the league since Sept. 14, winning 19 of those 26 matches (73.1%) straight up.

There is no beating Liverpool right now. A draw is in the cards, but the Reds have won four straight league matches. I’ll ride their momentum into a match with a struggling Fulham side.

Key stat: Liverpool ranks first in goals for (2.3), while allowing the second-fewest goals against (0.9), per Fotmob.

Quick pick

Marmoush to score (+143): Erling Haaland is going to be sidelined for the foreseeable future. That leaves a big hole for Marmoush to fill in Manchester City’s offence.

He did a great job, however, against Leicester City on the weekend. Marmoush started the match and recorded nine shots (three on target), leading to a goal.

In fact, the Egyptian scored in his previous three matches, even though he only started two of them.

Marmoush has five EPL goals in eight appearances this season (seven starts) but has been stashed behind Haaland.

With his superstar teammate out of the picture for the time being, it’s the forward’s time to shine.

Manchester United concedes 1.4 goals per match, which is a below-average scoring defence.

Premier League predictions made at 3:20 p.m. on 04/03/25.

Premier League predictions Matchday 30: Bet on Crystal Palace to win, Cole Palmer to perform vs. Tottenham

I’ve got two bets as the Premier League returns from international break.

The pregame narrative: Crystal Palace has been one of the hottest teams in the Premiership and is in a good spot to dominate Southampton on Wednesday. After that, look for Cole Palmer to score for Chelsea against its rival Tottenham on Thursday.

Check out the best Premier League predictions for Matchday 30.

Premier League predictions

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Best Bet: Crystal Palace HT/FT (+125)

Let’s hope the international break didn’t cool off Crystal Palace.

The Eagles are a middling 12th in the table but entered the break winning four of their last five, with decisive victories over Manchester United (2-0), Fulham (2-0) and Aston Villa (4-1).

Now, they get to go up against a Southampton side destined for relegation.

The Saints are last in the league with just nine points in 29 games (2-3-24).

Southampton has conceded 70 goals and has a -49 goal differential (both last in EPL).

It has also conceded a league-worst 69.6 xG, according to FotMob. That is 11.3 more than Ipswich Town, which is second last.

Palace didn’t suffer any injuries over the three-week hiatus and should be itching to get back on the horse against an awful team.

Key stat: Southampton is 1-1-12 at home this season and has been outscored 13-3 in its last five home fixtures.

Quick pick

Palmer to score or assist (+105): I was thinking about backing Chelsea to win at -154 but will instead look to Palmer on the prop market.

Mo Salah is lapping the Premier League with 27 goals this season, but Palmer is right in line with the best of the rest.

Palmer is seventh in the EPL with 14 goals.
His 15.2 xG ranks fourth.

This might seem like a bad time to back the Englishman, who is ice cold after failing to record a goal or assist in 10 straight games for Chelsea across all competitions.

But Tottenham has been a defensive wreck this year, conceding the fourth-most xG (49.2) in the EPL.

Palmer scored a brace against Spurs earlier this year at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Premier League predictions made at 12:53 p.m. on 04/01/25.

Premier League predictions Matchday 30: Bet on Crystal Palace to win, Cole Palmer to perform vs. Tottenham

I’ve got two bets as the Premier League returns from international break.

The pregame narrative: Crystal Palace has been one of the hottest teams in the Premiership and is in a good spot to dominate Southampton on Wednesday. After that, look for Cole Palmer to contribute to a goal for Chelsea against its rival Tottenham on Thursday.

Check out the best Premier League predictions for Matchday 30.

Premier League predictions

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Best Bet: Crystal Palace HT/FT (+148)

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Let’s hope the international break didn’t cool off Crystal Palace.

The Eagles are a middling 12th in the table but entered the break winning four of their last five, with decisive victories over Manchester United (2-0), Fulham (2-0) and Aston Villa (4-1).

Now, they get to go up against a Southampton side destined for relegation.

The Saints are last in the league with just nine points in 29 games (2-3-24).

Southampton has conceded 70 goals and has a -49 goal differential (both last in EPL).

It has also conceded a league-worst 69.6 xG, according to FotMob. That is 11.3 more than Ipswich Town, which is second last.

Palace didn’t suffer any injuries over the three-week hiatus and should be itching to get back on the horse against an awful team.

Key stat: Southampton is 1-1-12 at home this season and has been outscored 13-3 in its last five home fixtures.

Quick pick

Palmer to score or assist (-143): I was thinking about backing Chelsea to win at this price but will instead look to Palmer on the prop market.

Mo Salah is lapping the Premier League with 44 goal contributions this season, but Palmer is right in line with the best of the rest.

Palmer is fifth in the EPL with 20 goal contributions. That puts him four contributions behind Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak, who are tied for second.
His 22.6 xG + xA is tied for second with Haaland (Salah has 29.2).

This might seem like a bad time to back the Englishman, who is ice cold after failing to record a goal or assist in 10 straight games for Chelsea across all competitions.

But Tottenham has been a defensive wreck this year, conceding the fourth-most xG (49.2) in the EPL.

Palmer scored a brace against Spurs earlier this year at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Premier League predictions made at 12:53 p.m. on 04/01/25.

Canada vs. Mexico men’s Nations League soccer predictions: Back both teams to score in semifinal match

Canada and Mexico meet on Thursday with a spot in the Nations League final on the line.

The pregame narrative: It’s hard for me to pick a side between two nations that have been so tightly contested over the past few years. I do feel good about both teams scoring, though, and that’s my best bet for this match.

Check out the best Canada vs. Mexico predictions for the men’s soccer semifinal match on March 20.

Canada vs. Mexico predictions

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Best bet: Both teams to score (-118)

When it comes to the history between these two nations, there have been a lot of goals.

You may not think so after the last meeting in September of 2024 was a stalemate 0-0 draw. However, that was only a friendly so I’ll choose to side with the previous results that meant something.

Before that match, the last four games between Canada and Mexico had a goal from both sides. The 11 total goals mean almost three were being scored per match.

That data dates back to 2019 which is when Canada began to gain relevancy on the international stage.

Mexico scored just one goal in Copa but its offence improved after, scoring in five of eight matches since.

Young striker Santiago Gimenez has recently broken onto the scene, setting a record for most goals in one Champions League run by any Mexican player.

He had six goals in seven games for Italian side AC Milan. It’s his first meaningful call-up and he adds a new threat to the Mexican attack — and a dangerous one at that.

Key stat: Canada went on a run at Copa America, reaching the semis and has scored in every match but one since. That was the outing vs. Mexico.

Nations League soccer pick

Match to end in a draw (+220): With odds like this, I’d only play half a unit, but I think a 1-1 draw is well within the cards.

There hasn’t been much separating the two nations as two of the last three matches ended in a draw.

Canada’s been in better form but this will be closer to a home match for Mexico, who gets to play in Los Angeles.

This is also a semifinal match so the lights will be bright and the players will be satisfied with playing mistake-free soccer and pushing this to extra time if needed.

In that case, this wager would cash as it only applies to the 90 minutes of full time.

This also covers another 0-0 draw in case these sides have simply figured each other out.

Canada vs. Mexico predictions made at 1:29 p.m. on 03/19/25.