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Barcelona vs. Real Madrid Copa del Rey final SGP predictions: Bet on Mbappe and Olmo in +320 wager

Saturday’s El Clasico means more as Barcelona and Real Madrid battle in the Copa del Rey final.

The pregame narrative: Barcelona has dominated this fixture recently, but is missing its top scorer with Robert Lewandowski sidelined. The Catalans are still expected to perform, and I’m backing them to do so. Prop bets on Kylian Mbappe and Dani Olmo round out this +320 wager.

Check out my Barcelona vs. Real Madrid SGP predictions for April 26.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid predictions

Parlay: Barcelona to win or tie | Mbappe over 1.5 SOT | Olmo over 0.5 shots (+320)

Barcelona to win or tie (-265): Losing Lewandowski hurts, and there’s no sugar-coating that. The Polish striker has scored 40 goals across all competitions for Barcelona this season, including three against Real Madrid.

But Barcelona won those games by such a wide margin (4-0, 5-2) that I can see it at least forcing a draw through 90 minutes and added time.

The Catalans have allowed the third-fewest xG in La Liga this season, per FotMob, while owning the highest possession rate (68.6%).

Lewandowski might not be there to finish chances, but a midfield consisting of Pedri, Gavi and Frenkie de Jong should still dictate play.

Madrid is also not in top form, winning just three of its last seven games and failing to score two goals in six straight.

I expect Barcelona to secure a result with a European treble in play.

Go to full Copa del Rey betting markets

Copa del Rey SGP legs

Mbappe over 1.5 SOT (+130): Mbappe suffered an injury in the second leg of the Champions League quarterfinal against Arsenal, which forced him to miss a pair of league games.

That was seemingly precautionary, as the French national has travelled to Seville and is expected in Saturday’s starting lineup.

And if he’s playing, there are plenty of reasons to love this wager:

Mbappe has cleared this line in 13 of his last 20 games for Madrid

He has gone over this mark in both games against Barcelona this season, logging three and two SOTs, respectively.

Mbappe leads La Liga with 2.50 SOT per 90, per FotMob.

Olmo over 0.5 shots (-590): Olmo has been a super-sub for Flick at points this season, and now he’ll likely be thrust into a starting role.

That shouldn’t matter to the Spanish forward, who has produced as a member of the starting XI and coming off the bench.

Olmo has scored in three straight La Liga games for Barcelona, twice as a sub and once as a starter. And I’m not asking him to score, or even record a shot on target here.

All I need out of Olmo is a shot attempt, which is something he’s done in 10 of his last 11 games for club and country (excluding a UCL game vs. BVB Dortmund where he played five minutes).

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid predictions made at 5:00 p.m. on 04/25/25.

Premier League predictions Matchday 34: Back Mo Salah to break goalless drought

I’ve got one pick from each day of Premier League action this weekend.

The pregame narrative: Mo Salah and Liverpool have the EPL all but locked up, and I expect the Egyptian to find the back of the net against Tottenham on Sunday. Before that, take the under when Everton visits Chelsea.

Check out the best Premier League predictions for Matchday 34.

Premier League predictions

Best Bet: Salah to score (-124)

It’s been the lowest point of Salah’s historical season, but that provides bettors with some value on this prop.

The forward went scoreless in Liverpool’s last four Premier League contests, but take a look at his advanced analytics this season:

1st in expected goals (23.8)
1st in expected goals on target (27.2)
1st in big chances (23)

Salah paces the EPL with 27 goals and scored in seven of the eight matches before this dry spell.

He’s 22-11 against this wager overall, which equals a 66.6% hit rate. That is higher than the 55.36% implied probability on this line.

Tottenham isn’t the same side as years past. The London club sits 16th on the table and allows the seventh most goals per game (1.5).

This is a good chance for the Reds to claim the EPL title, while Salah has the right matchup to contribute on offence

Key stat: In his one meeting with the Spurs in December, Salah had two goals on five shots in a 6-3 win for Liverpool.

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Go to full Premier League betting markets.

Quick pick

Chelsea/Everton under 2.5 goals (-104): Under David Moyes, Everton has been one of England’s best defensive sides.

It allows the fourth-fewest goals per match (1.2) and has gone under this total in nine of 14 games since Moyes was hired in January.

That includes seven straight EPL matches finishing below this total.

Chelsea is tied for fourth with Everton in terms of fewest goals against per game (1.2). The club has seen four of its last six EPL matches finish under this total.

In their first meeting in December, these sides drew 0-0 in a stalemate of a match.

I expect a similar result under Everton’s new tutelage.

Premier League predictions made at 3:33 p.m. on 04/24/2025.

Premier League predictions Matchday 33: Back Nottingham over Tottenham, Salah to score

I’ve got two bets for this weekend’s Premier League action.

The pregame narrative: Nottingham Forest is in a dog fight for Champions League qualification, and I expect it to pick up three points against Tottenham. Elsewhere, look for Mo Salah to continue producing at a historic rate.

Check out the best Premier League predictions for Matchday 33.

Premier League predictions

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Best Bet: Salah to score (-134)

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I’m a little surprised you can get Salah to score at this price, considering he’s having one of the greatest seasons of all time.

The Egyptian striker has scored 27 goals in 32 games for Liverpool while adding 18 assists. And these underlying metrics provided by FotMob are pretty good, too:

1st in expected goals (22.7)
1st in expected goals on target (27.2)
1st in big chances (23)
3rd in expected goals per 90 (0.72)

On Sunday, Salah and the Reds take on a Leicester City side bound for relegation. The Foxes are 4-6-22 and have given up the second-most goals (72) in the Premier League.

A win would all but guarantee Liverpool the league, and I expect Salah to leave no doubt.

Key stat: Salah scored a goal on five shot attempts against Leicester earlier this season.

Quick pick

Nottingham to win (+180) Nottingham fans are white knuckling the steering wheel down the stretch. The Trees sit fourth in the Premiership with 57 points, two ahead of Manchester City and three ahead of Chelsea and Aston Villa.

With five Champions League spots allocated to English clubs this season, picking up points on Monday is a must.

Spurs sit a miserable 15th in the table and have lost four of their last six games. That includes a recent 4-2 defeat to Wolverhampton at the Molineux.

Agne Postecoglou’s words don’t seem to be registering anymore, and Tottenham will be focused on Thursday’s Europa League quarterfinal match against Eintracht Frankfurt.

Nottingham sports an 8-6-2 away record this season and beat Tottenham 1-0 in the reverse fixture back on December 26.

Premier League predictions made at 9:57 p.m. on 04/17/2025.

Real Madrid vs. Arsenal Champions League quarterfinal SGP predictions April 16: Back Bellingham and Rice at +295

Real Madrid looks to make a monumental comeback over Arsenal in the Champions League quarterfinal.

The pregame narrative: Los Blancos will be on the constant hunt for goals, but I’m expecting Arsenal to shut it down and I am taking under 3.5 goals. Picks on Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice are also featured in this +290 SGP.

Check out my Real Madrid vs. Arsenal SGP predictions for April 16.

Real Madrid vs. Arsenal predictions

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Parlay: Under 3.5 goals | Bellingham over 0.5 SOT | Rice over 0.5 shots (+290)

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Under 3.5 goals (-177): Madrid will be desperate for goals, but there should be no rush when Arsenal has possession.

In fact, I’m sure the English side would be happy with the most boring game possible.

And that’s because Arsenal holds a comfortable 3-0 lead on aggregate.

I expect a thwarting attack from Los Blancos at home, but I also expect the Gunners’ defenders to hold strong.

Arsenal allows the second fewest goals per game (0.5) in the Champions League this season.

The away side will be without top defender Gabriel, who went down with an injury a few weeks ago.

Jakub Kiwior returned at the perfect time, however, and has filled in at centre half nicely. He played the full 90 minutes in the first leg and helped hold Madrid’s attack to three shots on target.

Arsenal should be happy to play a defensively strong formation and slow the pace down by holding possession. That’ll lead to fewer opportunities for the Spanish side.

Champions League SGP legs

Bellingham over 0.5 SOT (-186): Whether Real Madrid needs goals or not, Bellingham is often involved in the opposing third.

He has at least a shot on goal in four of the past five matches. He claimed one of those few Real Madrid shots in the first leg, as well.

Carlo Ancelotti’s squad will be pressing for goals while taking risks that wouldn’t be needed in most cases. As the game goes on, the shot attempts will get more desperate, but that’s good for this wager.

And I think this is more than a fair price for Bellingham to get a shot on target, especially when his side is pushing for offence.

Rice over 0.5 shots (-205): It was the English midfielder who was the hero in the first leg, scoring two brilliant free kicks past Thibaut Courtois.

Rice has attempted a shot in each of the past 12 games across all competitions. He’s shown to be very reliable against this line.

Arsenal will be in no rush for offence, but it can’t sit back and invite pressure either. If Rice finds himself in a spot to let it fly, I don’t see why he wouldn’t.

He also has the advantage of being the Gunners’ free-kick taker. That can lead to a free shot opportunity on any Real Madrid foul around its penalty area.

Real Madrid vs. Arsenal predictions made at 10:26 a.m. on 04/15/25.

Champions League quarterfinal prop bets: Picks on Kylian Mbappe and Lautaro Martinez

The second leg of the Champions League quarterfinal continues this week, and I have picks for both of Wednesday’s games.

The pregame narrative: Real Madrid needs a few goals at home for a comeback over Arsenal. I’m picking Kylian Mbappe to contribute to the cause by scoring. I also have eyes on Lautaro Martinez’s shot prop when Inter Milan hosts Bayern Munich.

Check out the best Champions League prop bets for the quarterfinal second leg.

Champions League prop bets

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Best Bet: Mbappe to score (-134)

Mbappe is in a bit of a slump, going scoreless in his past four matches and in seven of his last nine.

That doesn’t change his underlying stats as an elite goal scorer:

La Liga: 22 goals in 29 games
UCL: 7 goals in 13 games

He’s always going to have opportunities. He’s recorded 18 shots on target over the past six games in which he played the full 90 minutes.

That’ll surely be the case on Wednesday as Real Madrid needs to win big to stay in the competition.

Mpabbe will spearhead an attack that is desperate for goals. I expect the defending champions to go down swinging, led by their star forward.

The side will need three goals at home, and that’s where the French attacker has been at his best for Los Blancos.

Key stat: Mbappe has 18 goals in 23 games played at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium across all competitions this season.

Quick pick

Martinez over 2.5 shots (-118): Martinez leads a potent Inter Milan offence that has scored at least a goal in 12 straight matches.

The Italian side holds a 2-1 lead on aggregate, but I don’t expect it to hold back and invite pressure against a squad as talented as Bayern Munich.

Bayern has recorded the most xG in the Champions League (32.6) this season, per FotMob. In other words, the German giants could score at any time and level the score.

That’s why it’ll be important for Inter to continue to play with the mindset of winning this match rather than not conceding.

Enter, Martinez. Dating back to the start of 2025, he is 15-3 against this line across all competitions, averaging 3.7 shots per game.

The offence flows through its Argentinian striker. I expect him to continue to let it rip in the second leg of the quarterfinal.

Martinez cleared this line on the road in the first leg with three shots.

Champions League picks made at 1:35 p.m. on 04/14/2025.

Champions League quarterfinal prop bets: Picks on Kylian Mbappe and Lautaro Martinez

The second leg of the Champions League quarterfinal continues this week, and I have picks for both of Wednesday’s games.

The pregame narrative: Real Madrid needs a few goals at home for a comeback over Arsenal. I’m picking Kylian Mbappe to contribute to the cause by scoring. I also have eyes on Lautaro Martinez’s shot prop when Inter Milan hosts Bayern Munich.

Check out the best Champions League prop bets for the quarterfinal second leg.

Champions League prop bets

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Best Bet: Mbappe to score (-106)

Embed: #112529

Mbappe is in a bit of a slump, going scoreless in his past four matches and in seven of his last nine.

That doesn’t change his underlying stats as an elite goal scorer:

La Liga: 22 goals in 29 games
UCL: 7 goals in 13 games

He’s always going to have opportunities. He’s recorded 18 shots on target over the past six games in which he played the full 90 minutes.

That’ll surely be the case on Wednesday as Real Madrid needs to win big to stay in the competition.

Mpabbe will spearhead an attack that is desperate for goals. I expect the defending champions to go down swinging, led by their star forward.

The side will need three goals at home, and that’s where the French attacker has been at his best for Los Blancos.

Key stat: Mbappe has 18 goals in 23 games played at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium across all competitions this season.

Quick pick

Martinez over 2.5 shots (-127): Martinez leads a potent Inter Milan offence that has scored at least a goal in 12 straight matches.

The Italian side holds a 2-1 lead on aggregate, but I don’t expect it to hold back and invite pressure against a squad as talented as Bayern Munich.

Bayern has recorded the most xG in the Champions League (32.6) this season, per FotMob. In other words, the German giants could score at any time and level the score.

That’s why it’ll be important for Inter to continue to play with the mindset of winning this match rather than not conceding.

Enter, Martinez. Dating back to the start of 2025, he is 15-3 against this line across all competitions, averaging 3.7 shots per game.

The offence flows through its Argentinian striker. I expect him to continue to let it rip in the second leg of the quarterfinal.

Martinez cleared this line on the road in the first leg with three shots.

Champions League picks made at 11:51 a.m. on 04/14/2025.

Champions League quarterfinal picks and predictions: Take Barcelona to win, the under in Aston Villa vs. PSG

There are two spots in the Champions League semifinal on the line Tuesday. I’ve got picks for both games.

The pregame narrative: It’s the second leg of the quarterfinal, and my best bet is on Barcelona to win. I also like the under on the game total at plus money in Aston Villa vs. PSG.

Check out the best Champions League predictions for the quarterfinal second leg.

Champions League predictions

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Best Bet: Barcelona to win (-120)

Borussia Dortmund is at home and has everything to play for but I can’t get behind the squad with how this season went.

The German side is usually at the top of the Bundesliga leaderboard … not this year.

Dortmund sits in ninth place and is in danger of missing out on Champions League qualification for next year.

The side squeaked through the Round of 16 with a 2-1 win (on aggregate) over the French side LOSC Lille.

Barcelona is on a different tier, and that showed in the first leg. The Spanish giant dominated from start to finish and won 4-0 off the back of two goals from Robert Lewandowski.

It’s also worth noting that Barca is first in La Liga and is undefeated in 2025.

Key stat: During that time, Barcelona had a record of 19-4-0, winning 16 of those games by multiple goals.

Quick pick

Aston Villa/PSG under 2.5 goals (+125): Whichever way this match goes, I like the under.

PSG can lose this match, 1-0 or 2-0 and still advance on aggregate. That makes me believe the French side will come out with a safe defensive strategy.

That will allow Les Parisiens to control the pace, which would, more importantly, keep Aston Villa away from its goal.

My prediction is that PSG wins this game, holding strongly until the final whistle. But, if Aston Villa comes out hungry to score, it will be on the Ligue 1 champs to limit chances and control the possession.

PSG should take minimal risks here looking for offence, and that has me very interested in the under at this price.

Champions League predictions made at 2:20 p.m. on 04/12/25.

Champions League quarterfinal picks and predictions: Take Barcelona to win, the under in Aston Villa vs. PSG

There are two spots in the Champions League semifinal on the line Tuesday. I’ve got picks for both games.

The pregame narrative: It’s the second leg of the quarterfinal, and my best bet is on Barcelona to win. I also like the under on the game total at plus money in Aston Villa vs. PSG.

Check out the best Champions League predictions for the quarterfinal second leg.

Champions League predictions

Go to full Champions League betting markets.

Best Bet: Barcelona to win (-118)

Embed: #112457

Borussia Dortmund is at home and has everything to play for but I can’t get behind the squad with how this season went.

The German side is usually at the top of the Bundesliga leaderboard … not this year.

Dortmund sits in ninth place and is in danger of missing out on Champions League qualification for next year.

The side squeaked through the Round of 16 with a 2-1 win (on aggregate) over the French side LOSC Lille.

Barcelona is on a different tier, and that showed in the first leg. The Spanish giant dominated from start to finish and won 4-0 off the back of two goals from Robert Lewandowski.

It’s also worth noting that Barca is first in La Liga and is undefeated in 2025.

Key stat: During that time, Barcelona had a record of 19-4-0, winning 16 of those games by multiple goals.

Quick pick

Aston Villa/PSG under 2.5 goals (+130): Whichever way this match goes, I like the under.

PSG can lose this match, 1-0 or 2-0 and still advance on aggregate. That makes me believe the French side will come out with a safe defensive strategy.

That will allow Les Parisiens to control the pace, which would, more importantly, keep Aston Villa away from its goal.

My prediction is that PSG wins this game, holding strongly until the final whistle. But, if Aston Villa comes out hungry to score, it will be on the Ligue 1 champs to limit chances and control the possession.

PSG should take minimal risks here looking for offence, and that has me very interested in the under at this price.

Champions League predictions made at 12:48 p.m. on 04/12/25.

Premier League predictions Matchday 32: Back Wolves at home, fade slumping Manchester City

I’ve got two prop bets for this weekend’s Premier League action.

The pregame narrative: Manchester City and Crystal Palace kick off the action on Saturday morning, and I’m fading the Citizens. Later, look for Wolverhampton to stay hot when it hosts Tottenham.

Check out the best Premier League predictions for Matchday 32.

Premier League predictions

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Best Bet: Wolverhampton to win (+125)

Wolverhampton is finding its form under Vito Pereira, who was appointed in late December with the task of avoiding relegation.

And he’s done just that, moving the Wolves up to 17th in the table after going 5-1-2 in the last eight games. They are now 12 points clear of Ipswich Town, who sit in 18th.

This recent run doesn’t appear to be a fluke, with 11 goals and 11.4 xG in the last nine games, per FBRef.

Tottenham has a poor 5-1-9 away record and has just one win in its last five EPL fixtures (1-1-3), and that came against last-place Southampton at home.

I don’t trust Ange Postecoglou’s side to perform at the hostile Molineux Stadium. Especially with it playing a Europa League quarterfinal match on Thursday afternoon.

Key stat: Wolverhampton had just two wins in 16 games before Pereira joined the club. Since then, it has seven wins in 15 games.

Quick pick

Crystal Palace to win or tie (+100): Erling Haaland is out, adding to the laundry list of injuries (John Stones, Rodri, Nathan Ake) that Man City has dealt with this season.

The Citizens are on a slide right now and risk missing out on Champions League qualification.

They have just two wins in their last six games while scoring five goals.

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, has been red-hot, securing 13 points in its last six games (4-1-1) while scoring 11 goals.

Any side with Pep Guardiola at the helm will get the tactical edge, but I can see a clear path for Palace to pick up points here.

Premier League predictions made at 3:20 p.m. on 04/03/25.

Premier League predictions Matchday 32: Back Wolves at home, fade slumping Manchester City

I’ve got two prop bets for this weekend’s Premier League action.

The pregame narrative: Manchester City and Crystal Palace kick off the action on Saturday morning, and I’m fading the Citizens. Later, look for Wolverhampton to stay hot when it hosts Tottenham.

Check out the best Premier League predictions for Matchday 32.

Premier League predictions

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Best Bet: Wolverhampton to win (+128)

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Wolverhampton is finding its form under Vito Pereira, who was appointed in late December with the task of avoiding relegation.

And he’s done just that, moving the Wolves up to 17th in the table after going 5-1-2 in the last eight games. They are now 12 points clear of Ipswich Town, who sit in 18th.

This recent run doesn’t appear to be a fluke, with 11 goals and 11.4 xG in the last nine games, per FBRef.

Tottenham has a poor 5-1-9 away record and has just one win in its last five EPL fixtures (1-1-3), and that came against last-place Southampton at home.

I don’t trust Ange Postecoglou’s side to perform at the hostile Molineux Stadium. Especially with it playing a Europa League quarterfinal match on Thursday afternoon.

Key stat: Wolverhampton had just two wins in 16 games before Pereira joined the club. Since then, it has seven wins in 15 games.

Quick pick

Crystal Palace to win or tie (+150): Erling Haaland is out, adding to the laundry list of injuries (John Stones, Rodri, Nathan Ake) that Man City has dealt with this season.

The Citizens are on a slide right now and risk missing out on Champions League qualification.

They have just two wins in their last six games while scoring five goals.

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, has been red-hot, securing 13 points in its last six games (4-1-1) while scoring 11 goals.

Any side with Pep Guardiola at the helm will get the tactical edge, but I can see a clear path for Palace to pick up points here.

Premier League predictions made at 3:20 p.m. on 04/03/25.