Category: Soccer

PSG and Inter Milan battle for European glory when they meet in the Champions League final on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: PSG has a lot at stake this weekend, with an opportunity for its first-ever Champions League trophy while completing its first treble. The French side is the favourite to defeat Inter, which has been on par with its counterpart in this competition.

Check out my PSG vs. Inter Milan SGP predictions for May 31, featuring picks on Bradley Barcola and Hakan Calhanoglu.

PSG vs. Inter Milan predictions

Parlay: Inter to win or tie | Barcola over 0.5 shots on target | Calhanoglu over 0.5 shots (+310)

Inter to win or tie (-148): It’s hard to bet against a team as defensively sound as Inter.

The Italian giants ranked second in the Champions League, allowing 0.8 goals against per game. The side has kept eight clean sheets, which is the most in the competition.

Those clean sheets weren’t always against weak competition, either. The Italian club held both Arsenal and Manchester City goalless earlier in the season.

PSG is certainly a better team than most. According to Fotmob, the French side ranked first in match rating (7.26) and produced a whopping 63 big chances through 16 games.

But even if this match gets out of hand, Inter has the tools to adapt and put on the offence when necessary.

• QF vs. Bayern Munich: 4-3 aggregate win
• SF vs. Barcelona: 7-6 aggregate win

Inter went 6-1-1 in the group stages and won or tied all six legs in the knockout stages. It is an extremely tough side to beat, and at worst, I think this match will go to extra time.

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Other SGP legs

Barcola over 0.5 shots on target (-167): PSG’s striker has been a staple in the squad across all competitions this season.

• He appeared in 50 matches and recorded a shot on target in 35 of them.
  
• In the Champions League, Barcola is 10-6 vs. this wager.

The spring is the busiest part of the soccer schedule, and the attacker played 11 matches between April 5 and May 19.

That led to a lack of production in the knockout stages. Barcola averaged just 41.5 minutes per match in the quarterfinal and semifinal, playing 20 or fewer minutes twice.

The Frenchman went 1-3 against this line but recorded a shot on goal in the single match where he played 70-plus minutes.

An extended break should have the starting 11 fully fit to play a large chunk of Saturday’s final.

Calhanoglu over 0.5 shots (-225): The midfielder has started in 10 Champions League matches this season.

• Calhanoglu is 9-1 against this line in those games.

• Despite his position in the midfield, he ranks third on Inter with 13 shots in this competition.

One of the big reasons for that is his status as Inter’s free-kick taker. If there is a foul anywhere around PSG’s penalty area, Calhanoglu would have the option to take a free shot attempt.

He’s one of the best there is at set pieces, so I’m confident he would have eyes for the goal if given the chance.

On top of that, he can create in open space, and only one attempt at PSG’s goal is needed for this final leg to cash.

Calhanoglu scored a goal on three shots in the semifinal second leg vs. Barcelona.

Soccer picks made at 10:00 a.m. on 05/30/2025.

It all comes down to this … one match to decide the winner of the 2025 Champions League.

The pregame narrative: PSG has dominated this competition with an average match rating of 7.26, the best of any team competing in the UCL. Inter Milan is a worthy opponent, though, as the Italian side has only lost one game in the lead-up to the final.

Check out the best Champions League final prop picks featuring Ousmane Dembele and Lautaro Martinez.

Champions League picks

Best Bet: Dembele to score or assist (+118)

The French winger spearheads PSG’s offence. He leads the pack in many offensive categories for this competition:

• 1st in goals (8)
• 2nd in assists (4)
• 1st in shot attempts (39)
• 1st in shots on target (22)

Dembele has appeared in 14 UCL matches and has 12 goals/assists. That includes getting on the score sheet in five straight games dating back to the second leg of the quarterfinal vs. Liverpool.

For the entire competition, he’s 9-5 against this prop (64.3%), which is much higher than the 45.87% implied probability of this wager.

Another reason for the price is that Inter Milan has a strong defence, conceding just 0.8 goals per match.

However, Arsenal is even better on that end, allowing 0.7 goals per match, and Dembele scored a goal or assist in both legs of the semifinal against the English side.

In Ligue 1, the attacker led all players with 27 goals/assists in 29 games. He’s dominant regardless of the competition.

Key stat: Dembele is 27-16 on this wager across all competitions this season.

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Quick pick

Martinez over 2.5 shots (-117): I went with Martinez to score (+210) in my best bets piece, but I’ll tone it down here and back his shots prop.

The Argentine striker has consistently been Inter’s most active attacker in its pursuit of a Serie A and Champions League title.

• Since Dec. 13, Martinez is 19-7 against this line while averaging 3.4 shots per match.

• He also leads Inter in the Champions League with 20 shots (18 on target). The next closest player is Marcus Thuram with 15.

Martinez was rather quiet in the semifinal, registering just one shot in two games against Barcelona, but he cleared this mark in four of the five UCL matches before that.

The striker was in the middle of a gruesome part of Inter’s schedule during the last round and only played 116 of 210 possible minutes over the entirety of the semifinal.

That’s a major reason for his lack of production in those matches.

Martinez hasn’t played since that second leg against Barcelona and should be fully fit to take on a 90-plus minute workload in the final.

Champions League picks made at 12:55 p.m. on 05/29/2025.

It all comes down to one final match between PSG and Inter Milan for this season’s Champions League trophy.

The pregame narrative: Both sides were undoubtedly two of the strongest throughout this entire competition. They meet on neutral ground to decide who will be crowned Europe’s best.

Check out my PSG vs. Inter Milan best bets for May 31, featuring Lautaro Martinez.

PSG vs. Inter Milan best bets

Under 2.5 goals (-127): These two offences can net goals, there’s no denying that, but there are a few reasons to like the under when they meet in the final:

• Inter has built its identity on defence, conceding a measly 0.8 goals against per game in this competition.

• PSG ranks just behind with 0.9 goals conceded per match.

• Inter has kept a clean sheet in over half of its Champions League games this season (eight of 14).

In a winner-take-all final, neither team should look to take any risks when in possession.

That’s been the case over recent years, and I don’t expect two defensively strong sides to break the trend.

Key Stat: The past six Champions League finals have stayed under this total with an average of 1.3 goals per match.

Go to full Champions League betting markets

Quick pick

Martinez anytime goalscorer (+215): I love the value here on one of the competition’s top scorers.

The Argentine striker ranks fifth in the UCL with nine goals in 13 matches.

He was amazing in the knockout stages, scoring four goals and going 4-1 against this wager.

Martinez went without a goal in the first leg of the semifinal against Barcelona, but he only played 45 minutes in that match.

He played 70-plus minutes in the other four games and found his way onto the score sheet against some of the world’s best teams (Barcelona, Bayern Munich).

Martinez hasn’t played since the second leg of the semifinal on May 5 and should be fit and ready to play the full 90 in the most important game of Inter’s season.

PSG vs. Inter Milan predictions made at 2:34 p.m. on 05/24/2025.