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Best NBA prop bets Feb. 13: Back bigs Sabonis, Adebayo and Kessler before all-star break

I’m dialling up four prop picks for the final night of the NBA’s first half.

The pregame narrative: Domantas Sabonis headlines the recommendations and I’m also backing Trey Murphy from the same matchup. Bam Adebayo and Walker Kessler round out the plays.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 13.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Sabonis over 32.5 points/rebounds (-129)

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For the second consecutive night, the Sacramento Kings’ stat-stuffing centre gets the New Orleans Pelicans.

Last night’s result was a 16-point, 15-rebound performance. Four days before that, he went off on them for 27 and 16.

Back in December, he dominated New Orleans with a 32-and-20 effort.

Sabonis is averaging 34.2 points/rebounds, the best mark of his career.

The Pelicans have been horrific guarding centres. Per Betting Pros, they surrender the most rebounds per game to the position and the fifth-most points.

Sabonis is 2-5 against this line in February, but that’s allowing us to buy in tonight at a discount.

I expect the all-star snub to make the most of this plus matchup versus the Pelicans, who have the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA.

Key stat: Sabonis leads the NBA in paint touches and the Pelicans allow the second-most points/game in the paint (per Team Rankings).

Quick picks

Murphy over 22.5 points (-121): Sticking with the Pelicans/Kings matchup, I’m riding New Orleans’ breakout star.

I also view this as a good buy-low spot.

Murphy is 0-3 versus this line in three matchups against the Kings, but I’m happy to overlook that. Here’s why:

Murphy has averaged 25-plus points in back-to-back months.

Sacramento has not been great at defending wings, ranking bottom 10 in points allowed to both shooting guards and small forwards.

The 24-year-old is 9-6 against this line over his last 15 games.

Murphy is top 20 in the NBA in PPG and top 10 in 3-pointers made since Jan. 1.

Murphy’s long-range stroke can hurt any team and the Kings are 29th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

Count on big production from the bigs

Adebayo over 17.5 points (-134): I played this last night at a 16.5 line and see no reason not to turn back to it.

Adebayo is scoring at his best clip of the season, averaging 23.0 points in six February games.

He has cleared this line in all of those contests and eight straight overall.

Jimmy Butler is out of the equation, leading to an uptick in volume for the Miami Heat centre. Adebayo is averaging 17.3 field goal attempts in February compared to 12.3 in January.

The Dallas Mavericks have been vulnerable against centres and are down multiple bigs for tonight’s contest. Adebayo dropped 20 on them in November.

Kessler to double-double (+112): Kessler isn’t the biggest name on the Utah Jazz but he might be the most productive.

Here’s why I like him tonight:

12 double-doubles in last 20 games
22 double-doubles in 42 games
Feb. averages: 13.3 pts, 14.3 reb

He’s shooting 71.8% from the field thanks to his work in the high-percentage paint area.

On a per-game level in the paint, Kessler is top five in the NBA in touches and field goals made.

The 7-footer is seventh in the NBA in rebounding and is up to nearly 35 minutes a night in February.

Picks made at 1:44 p.m. ET on 02/13/2025.

Clippers vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions Feb. 13: Back teammates Harden and Powell at +300

The final game before the all-star break will be played between the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz.

The pregame narrative: With both teams on back-to-backs, I’m hesitant to pick a side. Because of that, I’ll mix player props on James Harden, Norman Powell and Isaiah Collier to make up a +300 SGP.

Check out my Clippers vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 13.

Clippers vs. Jazz predictions

Parlay: Harden 10+ assists | Powell 23+ points | Collier 8+ assists (+300)

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Harden 10+ assists (-122): Kawhi Leonard will sit out for rest on Thursday, meaning Harden should have higher usage than usual.

And he’s already been quite productive with double-digit assists in nine of the past 12 games.

The Jazz also flat-out suck on defence. They have the third-worst defensive rating (120.4) in the NBA and allow the second most assists (10.2) to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

In his first meeting with Utah this season, Harden dished out 11 dimes. In the next meeting, he only recorded six but lit up the stat sheet with 41 points.

Most recently, on Feb. 8, Harden sliced up the Jazz’s defence for 17 assists.

If the nostalgic scoring touch isn’t there, expect another high assists total from Harden at the end of the night.

SGP legs

Powell 23+ points (-162): I expect Powell to be the main beneficiary of Harden’s elite playmaking.

The former Toronto Raptor is on a shortlist of contenders for the Most Improved Award and it’s easy to understand why.

He’s scoring 24.0 points per game.

While shooting 49.6% from the field and 42.9% from 3.

That PPG average is up just over 10 points from last season (13.9).

In three games against the Jazz this year, Powell is 2-1 against this line while averaging 24.6 points.

Collier 8+ assists (-215): Betting this line for a rookie may seem risky but he’s been trustworthy in this spot.

Collier is now a starter for the Jazz and he leads all rookies in assists per game (5.8). For context, the next closest is Bub Carrington (4.0).

He’s surpassed this mark in six straight including a nine-assist performance against the Clippers less than a week ago.

In 20 starts, Collier is averaging 8.6 assists a night and 3.3 turnovers. Over the full season, that would have him ranked tied for fifth in APG with Harden.

The 20-year-old is turning heads and flourishing into a legit NBA starter in his first season with the Jazz.

Picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET 02/13/2025.

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Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks Feb. 13: Alperen Sengun is poised for a monster night

The Houston Rockets welcome in the Golden State Warriors on Thursday ahead of the NBA all-star break.

The pregame narrative: Both teams played last night with Houston winning in a strong team effort. Alperen Sengun chipped in with 17 points and 13 rebounds and I expect him to keep rolling against an undersized Golden State squad. Also, take the over on Steph Curry’s rebound total.

Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks for Feb. 13.

Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks

Best bet: Sengun over 30.5 points and rebounds (-118)

This is a smash spot for me.

Sengun has put together a few monster games recently, is having his best rebounding year (10.4/game), and draws a dream matchup against the Warriors.

Golden State doesn’t have an everyday centre and runs a rotation with rookie Quinton Post — who plays less than 20 minutes a night — and 6-foot-9 Kevon Looney. Sometimes, Draymond Green even starts at the No. 5.

Simply backing Sengun’s 10.5 rebound total at -132 would play but I want to tap into his scoring as well.

The centre erupted for 26 points and 11 rebounds the last time he played Golden State and is averaging 21.0 PPG in his last five against them. Check out these stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass:

Golden State has the second-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (47.0%).
Sengun takes 45.0% of his shots from the mid-range, ranking in the 89th percentile for all NBA players.

On top of that, the Warriors are playing their sixth-straight road game and third in four nights. I expect the 22-year-old to tear apart a worn-down opponent.

Key stat: Sengun has cleared this mark in three of his last four games (excluding a Feb. 9 matchup vs. Raptors where he left after three minutes due to back spasms).

Quick pick

Curry 3.5 rebounds (-150): The Rockets are a weird, weird rebounding team.

Since Jan. 1 they rank first in offensive rebounding rate (38.1) and 24th in defensive rebounding rate (64.6%), according to NBA.com.

Curry isn’t going to be crashing the offensive glass but does pick up plenty of defensive boards as he looks to lead his team in transition.

He’s cleared this line in four straight games.

Picks made at 11:06 a.m. ET 02/13/2025.

Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks Feb. 13: Alperen Sengun is poised for a monster night

The Houston Rockets welcome in the Golden State Warriors on Thursday ahead of the NBA all-star break.

The pregame narrative: Both teams played last night with Houston winning in a strong team effort. Alperen Sengun chipped in with 17 points and 13 rebounds and I expect him to keep rolling against an undersized Golden State squad. Also, take the over on Steph Curry‘s rebound total.

Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks for Feb. 13.

Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks

Best bet: Sengun over 31.5 points and rebounds (-103)

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This is a smash spot for me.

Sengun has put together a few monster games recently, is having his best rebounding year (10.4/game), and draws a dream matchup against the Warriors.

Golden State doesn’t have an everyday centre and runs a rotation with rookie Quinton Post — who plays less than 20 minutes a night — and 6-foot-9 Kevon Looney. Sometimes, Draymond Green even starts at the No. 5.

Simply backing Sengun’s 10.5 rebound total at -132 would play but I want to tap into his scoring as well.

The centre erupted for 26 points and 11 rebounds the last time he played Golden State and is averaging 21.0 PPG in his last five against them. Check out these stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass:

Golden State has the second-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (47.0%).
Sengun takes 45.0% of his shots from the mid-range, ranking in the 89th percentile for all NBA players.

On top of that, the Warriors are playing their sixth-straight road game and third in four nights. I expect the 22-year-old to tear apart a worn-down opponent.

Key stat: Sengun has cleared this mark in three of his last four games (excluding a Feb. 9 matchup vs. Raptors where he left after three minutes due to back spasms).

Quick pick

Curry 5+ rebounds (+123): The Rockets are a weird, weird rebounding team.

Since Jan. 1 they rank first in offensive rebounding rate (38.1) and 24th in defensive rebounding rate (64.6%), according to NBA.com.

Curry isn’t going to be crashing the offensive glass but does pick up plenty of defensive boards as he looks to lead his team in transition.

He’s cleared this line in three of his last four games while landing on four in the outlier. At plus money, this seems like a nice value play.

Picks made at 11:06 a.m. ET 02/13/2025.

Heat vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions Feb. 13: Bet on Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware at +360

The Miami Heat visit an injury-riddled Dallas Mavericks side on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Even though the Mavs are dealing with a lot of bad injury luck, I’m confident they can keep it close with the Heat. Despite that, I’m backing two Miami players — Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware — in the prop markets to round out this SGP.

Check out my Heat vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 13.

Heat vs. Mavericks predictions

Parlay: Mavericks +6.5 | Adebayo 17+ points | Ware 9+ rebounds (+360)

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Mavericks +6.5 (-240): Dallas will miss Anthony Davis and other key pieces but it gets Miami at a very tough spot in its schedule.

The Heat played a road game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday and lost 115-101 but the contest was close enough that Miami’s starters played a normal workload.

This will mark the team’s sixth game on the road in February so fatigue is sure to be a factor.

Dallas played on Wednesday, as well, and beat the new-look Golden State Warriors behind 42 points from Kyrie Irving.

The Mavericks didn’t have to travel last night and play their fourth straight at home. Keeping pace with the Heat shouldn’t be too tall a task.

SGP legs

Adebayo 17+ points (-159): Following the Jimmy Butler saga in Miami, Adebayo’s been torching NBA defences.

He’s averaging 23.1 points in eight games since Jan. 27.

He’s shooting 54.5% from the field and playing 36.9 minutes per night.

He cashed this wager in all eight games.

In the Heat’s most recent road back-to-back (Feb. 5), Adebayo played 33 minutes against the Philadelphia 76ers and scored 18 points.

I’m not worried about his minutes and the Mavericks are missing several big men which should allow Adebayo to feast around the basket.

Ware 9+ rebounds (-134): Can anyone reading this play centre for the Mavericks tonight?

Dallas is missing five different big men/rebounding threats:

Anthony Davis
Dwight Powell
Daniel Gafford
Dereck Lively II
P.J. Washington

On Wednesday, the Mavericks started Kessler Edwards at centre, a 6-foot-8 forward who averages 10.1 minutes per night.

He was asked to play 32 minutes and was serviceable, grabbing six rebounds and recording three steals and two blocks but he’s not an NBA starting centre.

Ware has been impressive in his rookie season for the Heat and has been slated as the starter for the last 11 games.

In those contests, he hauled down nine-plus rebounds seven times.

The Mavericks don’t have a quality centre who could take advantage and I believe Ware will be dominant in this matchup.

Picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET 02/13/2025.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions Feb. 13: Back T-Wolves, Edwards in +375 wager

Two Western Conference heavyweights meet in Minnesota on Thursday when the Timberwolves host the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: OKC has been the better team all season but I expect a strong effort from Minny in its last game before the all-star break. Back the T-Wolves to cover an alt spread with Anthony Edwards and Chet Holmgren chipping in on the prop market.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 13.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves +10.5 | Edwards 6+ rebounds | Holmgren over 13.5 points (+375)

Timberwolves +10.5 (-182): The Thunder sit atop the NBA with a 44-9 record and own a league-best +13.3 net rating. Fading them is always risky but I think tonight should be a close one.

Minnesota is 9-6 in its last 15 games and has covered this number in 14 of those contests. Four of its last five losses were by two points, so we could easily be talking about a 12-3 or 13-2 run for the T-Wolves.

I’m also encouraged by the recent meetings between these squads:

On Dec. 31, in Oklahoma City, the Thunder beat the T-Wolves but only by eight points.
That marked the ninth time in the last 10 games Minnesota has covered this spread against Oklahoma City.
In those contests, the T-Wolves are 6-4 straight up.

Edwards is a gamer and I expect him to step up in a huge game ahead of the all-star break.

SGP legs

Edwards 6+ rebounds (-130): OKC’s biggest weakness this offseason was rebounding and it addressed those concerns by adding Isaiah Hartenstein.

The Thunder have been much better on the glass since but Edwards is a physical freak who can capitalize against any team.

He’s cleared this line in seven straight games and two of those came on no rest.

Edwards plays 36.7 minutes a night and has the 11th-highest usage rate in the NBA. There’s no reason for Chris Finch to treat him with kid gloves on a back-to-back.

He had seven rebounds against OKC on Dec. 31.

Holmgren over 13.5 points (-130): Holmgren was rested last night as the Thunder dismantled a shorthanded Miami Heat squad.

That makes sense considering OKC is managing his workload after a hip injury and Minnesota is a much tougher opponent.

The big man hasn’t been asked to do much yet but scored 12 points in 25 minutes his last time out. A slight uptick in minutes would be nice but I think this should be within reach even if he plays less than 30.

Holmgren has cleared this line in three of his four career games against the Timberwolves and seven of nine games this season before being injured.

Picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET 02/13/2025

Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions Feb. 13: Back T-Wolves, Edwards in +330 wager

Two Western Conference heavyweights meet in Minnesota on Thursday when the Timberwolves host the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: OKC has been the better team all season but I expect a strong effort from Minny in its last game before the all-star break. Back the T-Wolves to cover an alt spread with Anthony Edwards and Chet Holmgren chipping in on the prop market.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 13.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves +10.5 | Edwards 6+ rebounds | Holmgren over 13.5 points (+335)

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Timberwolves +10.5 (-200): The Thunder sit atop the NBA with a 44-9 record and own a league-best +13.3 net rating. Fading them is always risky but I think tonight should be a close one.

Minnesota is 9-6 in its last 15 games and has covered this number in 14 of those contests. Four of its last five losses were by two points, so we could easily be talking about a 12-3 or 13-2 run for the T-Wolves.

I’m also encouraged by the recent meetings between these squads:

On Dec. 31, in Oklahoma City, the Thunder beat the T-Wolves but only by eight points.
That marked the ninth time in the last 10 games Minnesota has covered this spread against Oklahoma City.
In those contests, the T-Wolves are 6-4 straight up.

Edwards is a gamer and I expect him to step up in a huge game ahead of the all-star break.

SGP legs

Edwards 6+ rebounds (-148): OKC’s biggest weakness this offseason was rebounding and it addressed those concerns by adding Isaiah Hartenstein.

The Thunder have been much better on the glass since but Edwards is a physical freak who can capitalize against any team.

He’s cleared this line in seven straight games and two of those came on no rest.

Edwards plays 36.7 minutes a night and has the 11th-highest usage rate in the NBA. There’s no reason for Chris Finch to treat him with kid gloves on a back-to-back.

He had seven rebounds against OKC on Dec. 31.

Holmgren over 13.5 points (-139): Holmgren was rested last night as the Thunder dismantled a shorthanded Miami Heat squad.

That makes sense considering OKC is managing his workload after a hip injury and Minnesota is a much tougher opponent.

The big man hasn’t been asked to do much yet but scored 12 points in 25 minutes his last time out. A slight uptick in minutes would be nice but I think this should be within reach even if he plays less than 30.

Holmgren has cleared this line in three of his four career games against the Timberwolves and seven of nine games this season before being injured.

Picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET 02/13/2025

Grizzlies vs. Clippers prop picks Feb. 12: Back Norman Powell, Jaren Jackson Jr.

The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers wrap up Wednesday’s 15-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Memphis played last night but has been spectacular on no rest this season. In what should be a tightly contested matchup, I’m looking for Norman Powell and Jaren Jackson Jr. to fill the basket.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Clippers prop picks for Feb. 12.

Grizzlies vs. Clippers prop picks

Best bet: Powell over 22.5 points (-125)

Powell is on a fast track to winning the league’s Most Improved Player award and should be playing in this weekend’s all-star game.

The veteran guard is having a monster scoring season, setting career highs in points (24.0) and field-goal attempts (16.8) per game while shooting 49.6% from the field and 42.9% from deep.

He’s been the alpha dog for Los Angeles even with Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup and has an extremely reliable scoring floor:

Powell has scored 20+ points in 34/43 games (79.0%) this season.
He’s scored 20+ points in 12/13 games with Leonard, clearing this line seven times.

Powell is going to get his shots up, which is important against a defensively-minded team like the Grizzlies.

Memphis has the seventh-best defensive rating in basketball but struggles to contain shooting guards, allowing the seventh-most PPG to that position, according to Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Powell scored 29 points against Memphis on Dec. 23.

Quick pick

Jackson over 21.5 points (-130): The Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS and SU on no rest, winning those games by an average of 13.9 points.

With that said, backing Memphis +4.5 seems very enticing.

But on the prop market, I believe Jackson holds the best value to have a big night. The power forward has been a beast on back-to-backs this season, averaging 24.9 points per game on 52.9% shooting.

The Clippers allow the fewest points to power forwards but that didn’t stop Jackson from dropping 24 on them earlier this season.

He also left some points on the table in that game by shooting 1-for-7 from deep, well below his 36.6% season-long average.

Picks made at 1:41 p.m. ET 02/12/2025.

Grizzlies vs. Clippers prop picks Feb. 12: Back Norman Powell, Jaren Jackson Jr.

The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers wrap up Wednesday’s 15-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Memphis played last night but has been spectacular on no rest this season. In what should be a tightly contested matchup, I’m looking for Norman Powell and Jaren Jackson Jr. to fill the basket.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Clippers prop picks for Feb. 12.

Grizzlies vs. Clippers prop picks

Best bet: Powell over 22.5 points (-122)

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Powell is on a fast track to winning the league’s Most Improved Player award and should be playing in this weekend’s all-star game.

The veteran guard is having a monster scoring season, setting career highs in points (24.0) and field-goal attempts (16.8) per game while shooting 49.6% from the field and 42.9% from deep.

He’s been the alpha dog for Los Angeles even with Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup and has an extremely reliable scoring floor:

Powell has scored 20+ points in 34/43 games (79.0%) this season.
He’s scored 20+ points in 12/13 games with Leonard, clearing this line seven times.

Powell is going to get his shots up, which is important against a defensively-minded team like the Grizzlies.

Memphis has the seventh-best defensive rating in basketball but struggles to contain shooting guards, allowing the seventh-most PPG to that position, according to Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Powell scored 29 points against Memphis on Dec. 23.

Quick pick

Jackson over 21.5 points (-117): The Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS and SU on no rest, winning those games by an average of 13.9 points.

With that said, backing Memphis +5 seems very enticing.

But on the prop market, I believe Jackson holds the best value to have a big night. The power forward has been a beast on back-to-backs this season, averaging 24.9 points per game on 52.9% shooting.

The Clippers allow the fewest points to power forwards but that didn’t stop Jackson from dropping 24 on them earlier this season.

He also left some points on the table in that game by shooting 1-for-7 from deep, well below his 36.6% season-long average.

Picks made at 1:41 p.m. ET 02/12/2025.

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Best NBA prop bets Feb. 12: Back bigs Nikola Jokic, Bam Adebayo and Jarrett Allen

Wednesday is a monster slate in the NBA with all 30 teams in action.

The pregame narrative: There are several prop bets I like, none more so than Bam Adebayo to clear his points line. I also have plays on fellow big men Nikola Jokic and Jarrett Allen, as well as guard Coby White.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 12.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Adebayo over 17.5 points (-130)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best record in the NBA and are the No. 1 defence.

They’re on a six-game winning streak, blowing each team out by double digits over that stretch.

They guard multiple positions well, including centres, which OKC holds to the third-lowest scoring average per game (according to Betting Pros).

That might signal a fade on Adebayo and other Miami Heat players, but I think we can take advantage of a light line.

Through five February games, this is by far Adebayo’s best-scoring month.

He’s played 50 games, exactly half of those without former disgruntled teammate Jimmy Butler. Adebayo’s per-game scoring is up two points without Butler.

His February usage rate is up more than 3% compared to any month this season.

Key stat: Adebayo has cleared this number in seven straight games.

NBA prop picks: Back the bigs

Jokic over 29.5 points (-108): One big concern here is blowout potential.

The Denver Nuggets played the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday, winning by 29. But that didn’t stop Jokic from producing his seventh 40-plus point game of the season.

He has smoked the Blazers in recent years, including a 34-point effort earlier this season.

Jokic has deployed his improved three-point stroke versus Portland, which ranks 20th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

Jokic has drilled a combined six triples on 13 attempts in the two meetings this season. That type of volume would go a long way tonight.

The three-time MVP is averaging 31.2 points in February.

Allen over 24.5 points/rebounds (-130): The Cleveland Cavaliers big man gets a tasty matchup against the Toronto Raptors, who are on a back-to-back.

Toronto’s starting centre and best rebounder Jakob Poeltl missed his fourth straight game Tuesday and appears to be out again tonight.

Joel Embiid took advantage of the assignment, scoring 27 points with 12 rebounds.

Allen isn’t the scorer Embiid is but he’s a better rebounder and torched Toronto twice already this season.

Jan. 9: 18 points, 15 rebounds
Nov. 24: 23 points, 13 rebounds

Allen is averaging 25.6 points/rebounds this month ahead of tonight’s game against the Raptors, who allow the eighth-most boards to centres.

Quick pick

White over 20.5 points (-120): Tuesday was a forgettable night for the Chicago Bulls.

They got dismantled by the Detroit Pistons, losing by 40 after scoring 29 points in the first half. Chicago gets the Pistons again and a better effort feels all but guaranteed.

White was among the duds (five points, 2-of-13 from the field). But he went into last night hot and had previously lit up Detroit this season.

I expect a bounce-back outing.

White is a big threat from long range, where the Pistons struggle (No. 28 in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage).

He’s 4-3 against this line since Zach LaVine played his last game for Chicago with one 20-point game.

White scored 22 vs. the Pistons at the start of the month and 25 in November.

Picks made at 11:54 a.m. ET on 02/12/2025.