Category: NBA

I’m focused on the frontcourt for Thursday’s NBA prop picks, with predictions on a trio of star centres.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Victor Wembanyama has dominated the Utah Jazz twice already this season, and I see no reason why it’d be a different story tonight. Elsewhere, look for Bam Adebayo to continue putting distance between himself and a recent shooting slump.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 22, featuring a prediction on Joel Embiid.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 22

Best bet: Wembanyama over 25.5 points (-121)

Wembanyama has scored 30+ points in both matchups against the Jazz this year, and he did it in two distinctly different ways.

• In the first matchup (Dec. 27), Wemby scored with efficiency from inside the arc, sinking 12 of 21 shots — and all eight free throws. He failed to make any of his four 3-point attempts.

• On Monday (Jan. 19), he set fire to the 3-point line, going 7-for-12 from deep for a season-high mark in triples.

The 7-foot-4 centre can score from anywhere, which is part of what makes him so dangerous. If he’s having an off-night from deep, he’s happy to make hay at the elbow, in the low post, or at the free-throw line.

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Wemby can go for 30 on any given night, but it makes sense for the Jazz to be a team he’s so easily able to victimize.

• Utah allows the fourth-most points per game to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros.

• The Jazz rank dead last in the NBA in defensive rating (122.2), opponent PPG (127.4) and opponent FG% (49.4).

This line asks a bit more of Wembanyama than his season scoring average (24.4 PPG), but it’s a negligible difference.

Wemby is 7-5 vs. this prop in his past 12 games and should get over the line again tonight.

Key stat: In five games vs. the Jazz since the start of last season, Wembanyama is averaging 29.6 points on 53.6/44.2/1.000 shooting splits.

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Best NBA picks

Adebayo over 18.5 points (-113): Adebayo went through a multi-week shooting slump recently, which is something you rarely see for a big man who takes most of his shots within six feet of the basket.

But after an 11-game span in which he shot just 37.1% from the field, Adebayo is back in a groove.

He’s taking (and sinking) plenty of shots right now, averaging 22.0 points on 16.8 field goal attempts over his past five games. He is 4-1 vs. this prop.

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The Portland Trail Blazers, who he’ll face tonight, are allowing the eighth-most points per game to centres.

Portland also allows the fifth-highest FG% on short midrange shots, according to Cleaning The Glass. That’s where nearly 40% of Adebayo’s shots come from.

NBA player prop predictions

Embiid over 25.5 points (-113): Public sentiment on Embiid has soured through the years, given that he seems incapable of staying healthy for long stretches, and he’s never reached the conference finals.

But when he’s available, Embiid is still a dangerous scorer who has the potential to blow well past this line.

Look at his past 12 games:

• 27.7 PPG
• 52.3 FG%
• 9-3 vs. this prop

Embiid attempts 51% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 97th percentile among bigs. Tonight, he’ll face a Houston Rockets team that allows 33.9% of opponent shots in that range, which is the second-highest shot share in the league.

-> See tonight’s NBA moneyline odds, spreads & game totals

The two-time scoring champ hasn’t faced the Rockets since January 2024, but he did drop 41 on them that night. Here’s hoping he can fill the net again on Thursday.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 22, 2026.

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The Toronto Raptors will play their third California opponent in four nights on Wednesday, as they head to Sacramento to face the Kings.

The pregame narrative: Sacramento was blown out at home by the Miami Heat last night, while Toronto won in a laugher against Golden State. The Raptors are road favourites and should come out with another win.

Check out my same-game parlay Raptors vs. Kings predictions for Jan. 21, featuring Jamal Shead and Malik Monk.

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Raptors vs. Kings predictions

SGP: Raptors -3.5 | Shead under 1.5 threes | Monk over 1.5 threes (+325)

Raptors -3.5 (-200): Hand up, I picked the Warriors to beat the Raptors last night … and Toronto made me look foolish in a 145-127 win.

Did my bingo card have Immanuel Quickley dropping 40 points on 13 shots? No, it did not. Still, the Raptors have played well enough lately to earn more respect than I showed.

And the Kings, meanwhile, hardly deserve any respect at all.

• Over their past 15 games, the Raptors are 9-6 with a +2.8 net rating (ninth in the NBA).

• In the same span, the Kings are 5-10 with a -8.7 net rating (29th in the NBA).

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Sacramento played at Golden State less than two weeks ago and lost by 35. Most recently, the Kings have lost back-to-back home games against the Trail Blazers and Heat by a combined 20 points.

The Kings are now 8-12-0 ATS as home underdogs, per Team Rankings.

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NBA SGP picks

Shead under 1.5 threes (-148): Shead doesn’t shoot a ton of 3s, and his efficiency has been worse than usual lately. I’m all over this under.

The ex-Houston Cougars guard is shooting a paltry 32.7% from deep on 3.6 attempted 3s per game. That equates to an average of 1.2 makes

-> Bet on Jamal Shead and Malik Monk tonight in Sacramento!

In fairness, his 3-point shot volume has ticked up recently … but he’s offsetting that with lesser efficiency, meaning this under is still largely reliable.

Over his past 11 games, Shead is shooting 30.4% from beyond the arc (4.2 attempts/game). This under is 6-5 in that span.

The Kings allow the 10th-fewest made 3s (12.6/game) on the eighth-lowest opponent 3PT% (34.9). So it’s not like this is a matchup that Shead is expected to exploit.

Kings prop prediction

Monk over 1.5 threes (-180): Unlike Shead, Monk’s 3PT% is excellent. He’s shown some high-volume shooting tendencies lately, too, which could make this a steal even at a super-juiced price.

• Monk shot 4-for-10 from deep last time out, which was notably his first game with 10+ attempted 3s on the season.

• He also put up nine 3-point attempts in two of four games before that.

The ninth-year vet is averaging 1.9 makes on a career-high 41.3% clip from beyond the arc. He’s on track to average at least 1.9 threes for a sixth consecutive season.

Raptors vs. Kings predictions made at 12:30 p.m. on Jan. 21, 2026.

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Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks will try to get out of a funk on Wednesday night in a home matchup against the Brooklyn Nets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: The Knicks are 2-9 in their past 11 games, but now they’ll face one of the NBA’s five teams with a sub-.300 win percentage. Brunson typically drives New York’s offence, and his points prop is curiously low tonight.

Check out a special all-Jalen version of NBA prop picks for Jan. 21, featuring predictions on Jalen Johnson and Jalen Duren.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 21

Best bet: Johnson under 7.5 assists (-139)

Johnson is still averaging 8.0 assists on the season, so it might seem questionable to pay this much juice on the under for this line.

But look at Johnson’s recent work as a passer, and it starts to make sense.

• This under is 8-0 in Johnson’s past eight games. He’s averaging 5.9 APG in that span.

• Johnson is averaging 12.4 potential assists in his past eight games, per NBA.com, which denotes the number of passes that lead directly to a shot.

• Before this eight-game stretch, he’d averaged 14.8 potential assists (which ranked sixth in the NBA at the time).

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Given that Trae Young played his final game for the Atlanta Hawks on Dec. 27, and was subsequently traded to the Washington Wizards, you might think Johnson would have an even larger opportunity now than before to rack up assists.

Instead, he has moved the other way, and the Hawks are taking more of a by-committee approach to distribute the ball.

Since Jan. 5, five Atlanta players are averaging between 3.6 and 6.6 assists — including newcomer CJ McCollum.

Johnson’s opponents, the Memphis Grizzlies, are 15th in the NBA in assists allowed per game. So it’s not like this matchup should yield above-average results for a guy who isn’t setting the table as often these days.

Key stat: Johnson has gone under 7.5 assists in 21 of 41 games (51.2%), which includes eight in a row.

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Best NBA picks

Duren over 17.5 points (-115): This number is right in line with Duren’s season-long scoring average (17.8 PPG). Given the matchup, I’m pleasantly surprised to see that bettors don’t have to pay a premium.

Tonight, Duren and the Detroit Pistons will face the New Orleans Pelicans, who have the 28th-ranked defensive rating in the NBA.

Additionally, the Pelicans allow the fifth-most points to opposing centres (23.9/game) and the third-most points overall (122.2).

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Duren is 17-17 vs. this prop, so we’re looking at coin flip territory on the average night. But this is a matchup that really should help him land on the over.

According to Cleaning The Glass, the Pelicans rank 23rd and 27th on field goal percentage allowed at the rim and in the short midrange, respectively.

NBA player prop predictions

Brunson over 25.5 points (-121): The Knicks are slumping hard, but they should be able to right the ship against the woeful Nets tonight.

And frankly, whether they do or they don’t, this line is disrespectfully low for Brunson.

Recently named as an all-star starter, Brunson is averaging 28.1 PPG this season. He is 26-12 vs. this prop.

-> See tonight’s NBA moneyline odds, spreads & game totals

Brunson scored 22 points in 34 minutes last time out after missing a pair of games with an ankle injury. That points total might be a bit low for my liking, but the minutes total is encouraging to see.

In 18 full games before his injury, Brunson went 14-4 vs. this prop while averaging 30.1 PPG.

The Nets (12-29) have the NBA’s second-worst defensive rating over their past 10 games.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 21, 2026.

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The Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors conclude their season series on Tuesday night with a showdown at Chase Center.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won a wild one at home over Golden State last month, 141-127 in overtime. I’m expecting a different result tonight, but Scottie Barnes should remain productive on the glass for the Raptors.

Check out my same-game parlay Raptors vs. Warriors predictions for Jan. 20, featuring Barnes and Draymond Green.

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Raptors vs. Warriors predictions

SGP: Warriors ML | Barnes 8+ rebounds | Green 10+ points (+340)

Warriors moneyline (-150): Amazingly, the Warriors have only played on the road once this month. Tonight’s matchup concludes an extended stay at Chase Center, marking their 10th home game already in 2026.

Home cooking has been good to the Warriors, who are 17-6 in San Francisco with a +8.2 net rating. That’s the fourth-best net rating at home in the NBA.

The Warriors are at a rest disadvantage after playing last night, but I don’t think that makes much of a difference.

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For one thing, they haven’t left the state of California this month (their lone road game was in L.A.’s Intuit Dome).

Secondly, the Dubs didn’t need to hit the gas too hard in Monday’s 21-point win over Miami. In that matchup, no one on the Warriors played more than 30 minutes.

Toronto has dropped four of its past six games and is coming off a miserable performance against the Los Angeles Lakers: a 110-93 loss in which the Raptors posted 41.8/21.9/66.7 shooting splits as a team.

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NBA SGP picks

Barnes 8+ rebounds (-180): Barnes had the game of his life — or at least of his NBA life — when he last faced the Warriors.

At home on Dec. 28, Barnes posted a triple-double that included a franchise-record-tying 25 rebounds. It was sheer dominance on the glass, as no one else in the game had more than seven rebounds.

-> Bet on Scottie Barnes vs. Golden State at NorthStar Bets

I wouldn’t dream of predicting a performance like that again, but he can cash this rebounding milestone with merely a third of his production from that epic night.

The Warriors allow the 10th-most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros, and it’s easy to see why they’re a favourable matchup.

Quinten Post (7 feet) is the only rotation player who’s taller than 6-foot-8. And he spends a lot of time on the perimeter, given that he averages fewer rebounds (4.0) than attempted 3s (4.5).

Warriors prop prediction

Green 10+ points (-136): Green should be as rested and raring to go as anyone on the Warriors tonight, given that he sat out the front end of this back-to-back.

This prop asks more of Green than his 2025-26 scoring average (8.9 PPG), but he’s been a solid contributor in recent games.

Green is 6-5 vs. this scoring milestone over his past 11 games, averaging 10.7 points. That includes a 21-point outburst vs. the Raptors (8-of-14 shooting).

Jimmy Butler, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last night, was one of just two Warriors averaging north of 13.0 points this season. Green and others will have to step up.

Raptors vs. Warriors predictions made at 11:40 a.m. on Jan. 20, 2026.

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