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Best NBA prop bets March 20: Back Immanuel Quickley and Mark Williams on Thursday night

Mark Williams and Immanuel Quickley are the two guys I’m targeting for Thursday’s light five-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Both have difficult matchups but I expect that to affect their teams more than their individual performances. Williams’ Charlotte Hornets get the New York Knicks, while Quickley and the Toronto Raptors collide with the Golden State Warriors.

Check out how I’m betting on the pair in the best NBA prop bets for March 20.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Williams over 24.5 points/rebounds (-103)

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The Hornets’ big man is coming off a dud but it came in a 30-point loss without Charlotte’s top two scorers (LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges).

Both are expected back tonight, which should theoretically lead to a more competitive game against the Knicks.

Charlotte is a 7.5-point home underdog but there are some things to like about Williams going into the matchup.

New York is 22nd in the NBA in points allowed in the paint, an area where Williams is extremely active.

Williams is third in the NBA in paint touches per game, taking more shots in that area than all players outside of Ivica Zubac.

The 23-year-old is averaging 25.4 points/rebounds this season, which includes a quiet first month. Since Jan. 1, he’s averaging 16.7 points and 11.1 rebounds.

Williams is a steady scorer with big rebounding upside, securing a double-double in eight of his last 10 games.

Key stat: Williams is 6-4 vs. this line over his last 10 games, landing on 24 points/rebounds twice.

Best NBA picks

Quickley over 16.5 points (-121): The Raptors don’t stand much of a chance vs. the Warriors, sitting as a 14-point underdog as of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday.

But with RJ Barrett out and Scottie Barnes’ production stalling in March, Quickley should be looking at another solid scoring night.

Toronto’s point guard has scored 15-plus points in 12 of his last 14 games. While 15 doesn’t cash this, he hits that benchmark often and it demonstrates his level of consistency.

Over that stretch, Quickey is 9-5 against this line while averaging 19.9 PPG.

The 25-year-old isn’t trigger-shy and should unload plenty from deep for the tanking Raptors, giving him a shot to put up points in bunches.

Quickley is averaging 2.8 threes/game on 8.0 attempts in March.

NBA prop picks made at 1:59 p.m. ET on 03/20/2025.

Bucks vs. Lakers SGP predictions March 20: Fade L.A. without Doncic, back Giannis at +375

The Milwaukee Bucks are favoured on the road against a depleted Los Angeles Lakers squad.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic and LeBron James are out, which makes Milwaukee a compelling moneyline pick. Prop bets on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard round out this +375 wager.

Check out my Bucks vs. Lakers SGP predictions for March 20.

Bucks vs. Lakers predictions

Parlay: Bucks moneyline | Giannis 14+ rebounds | Lillard under 3.5 threes (+375)

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Bucks moneyline (-235): The absence of LeBron and Doncic takes away from this game’s star power, but I’m sure it’s music to Milwaukee’s ears.

The Bucks could use a cupcake win after dropping five of their last seven games.

In addition to being without its two best players, L.A. is playing its sixth game in eight nights. I love what Austin Reaves and Dalton Knecht have been doing but can’t see them willing the Lakers to a victory in this spot.

These teams met last week with Doncic in the lineup, and Milwaukee won by 20 points.

NBA SGP picks

Giannis 14+ rebounds (+125): Most of my parlay’s value comes from backing Giannis on this plus-money wager — and I think the Greek Freak will be up to the task.

Los Angeles’ starting centre is Jaxson Hayes, who has been good but not great for the Lakers.

You can’t really blame him, though, as the reclamation project was thrust into the role after L.A. traded away Anthony Davis and failed to acquire another big man.

The Lakers are 22nd in rebounding rate since James went down with an injury and things will only get tougher without Doncic, who is averaging 8.8 boards with L.A.

Giannis had 12 rebounds in 30 minutes against the Lakers last week.

Lillard under 3.5 threes (-159): Los Angeles’ only route to keeping this game close will be tightening up on defence, so I think Lillard is worth fading at this number.

The Lakers have been great at defending the perimeter this season, holding opponents to a 34.8% 3-point percentage (third-best in the NBA).

Lillard is hardly lighting the league on fire from deep, too, with two or fewer 3s in five of his last six games.

He went 2-for-8 against the Lakers on March 20.

Bucks vs. Lakers predictions made at 2:00 p.m. ET 03/20/2025.

Raptors vs. Warriors prop picks March 20: Tail Jimmy Butler, Jakob Poeltl

The Raptors head to the West Coast to play the streaking Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: Jimmy Butler had a roller coaster of a season but he’s settling down with the Warriors and making an impact. I’m taking the over on his points prop and I have a pick on Toronto’s Jakob Poeltl.

Check out my Raptors vs. Warriors prop picks for March 20.

Raptors vs. Warriors prop picks

Best Bet: Butler over 18.5 points (-114)

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After forcing his way out of Miami, Butler is finally in midseason form.

That has led to winning basketball for the Warriors. They are 15-2 with Butler in the lineup, and he’s been particularly good over the last eight games:

18.6 points per game
5-3 against this wager

He had a few outlier performances of 5 and 11 points that drastically brought his average down during that time, but he’s scored 23-plus points on four occasions during that stretch.

And this is a soft matchup. The Raptors have the 11th-worst defensive rating in the NBA (116.7) and both teams play at an average pace.

That means there should be lots of shooting volume to go around and Butler should continue filling the statsheet.

Just take a look at his averages from the past two games:

23.5 PPG
8.0 RPG
8.0 APG

Those look like stats from prime Butler, and I think he’ll continue to play like his younger self in a place where he’s happy to be.

There’s obvious blowout potential here with the Raptors being 14.5-point underdogs, but Toronto has been excellent against the spread, covering this number in nine of its past 10 games and winning six games straight up.

Even with the tank being in full force, the young guns on Toronto aren’t willing to roll over and I expect this one to be close.

Key stat: Butler averaged 20.9 points in the 28 games in which he played more than 30 minutes this season.

Quick pick

Poeltl over 11.5 points (-112): Poeltl has been in and out of the rotation for Toronto but he’s been effective with his minutes when playing.

The big man has seen his minutes fall over the last four games, playing 22.5 per but he’s managed to top this modest points total three times.

He’s averaged 16.5 points on 70.0% shooting in those contests. With that sort of efficiency, he wouldn’t need many minutes to once again surpass this total.

RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick and Ja’Kobe Walter are all out for Raptors, which means they could rely more on Poeltl on Wednesday.

Toronto can still tank successfully while Poeltl gets his buckets.

Raptors vs. Warriors prop picks made at 10:48 a.m. ET 03/20/2025.

Cavaliers vs. Kings SGP predictions March 19: Back Mobley to have another strong performance

The Cleveland Cavaliers wrap up their back-to-back with a matchup against the Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: I’m finding it tough to pick a side here with the Cavaliers playing on no rest on the road. However, I will mix together prop picks on Evan Mobley, Zach LaVine and Keegan Murray to make a parlay for the action.

Check out my +320 Cavaliers vs. Kings SGP predictions for March 19.

Cavaliers vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Mobley over 17.5 points | LaVine over 19.5 points | Murray 2+ threes (+320)

Mobley over 17.5 points (-150): The fourth-year pro has taken a massive step forward offensively this season and he’s in the right spot to go off.

Mobley finished with exactly 17 last night against the Los Angeles Clippers but this is a friendlier matchup.

According to Fantasy Pros, the Kings allow the second most points to power forwards per game (24.37).

Over his past 16 games, Mobley is averaging 20.2 PPG and is 10-6 vs. this line.
He finished with 17 points three times, showing off his high offensive floor.

If this game is close as the Cleveland -5.5 line indicates, the Cavaliers’ power forward would play above-average minutes.

Take the opponent into account and this is a smash spot for Mobley.

NBA SGP legs

LaVine over 19.5 points (-148): LaVine has been quite successful in his short stint with his new team.

Since being moved at the deadline, the dynamic guard has averaged 22.7 points in 18 appearances.

He is taking fewer shots with more mouths to feed in Sacramento compared to the Chicago Bulls.

So, although he is scoring less with the Kings, he’s scoring the ball with incredible efficiency.

52.7 FG%
44.1 3PT%

LaVine has recorded 20-plus points in 13-of-18 games with Sacramento. That includes in 10 of the last 12 starts.

Murray 2+ threes (-205): Murray is having his worst shooting season, canning a career-low 1.9 triples per game at a 33.3% rate.

But if we look at his stats since Jan. 1, things are a lot more promising.

2.3 threes made per game
37.6 3PT%
23-9 against this line

During that run, the stretch big has attempted 50 more 3-pointers than 2-pointers. His shot is falling and he’s relying on it more and more as he heats up.

Murray drained two-plus 3s in 11 of his last 13 games.

Cavaliers vs. Kings predictions made at 1:44 p.m. ET 03/19/2025.

Nuggets vs. Lakers prop picks March 19: Tail Reaves and Braun in Western Conference showdown

The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers meet for the second time in less than a week, and I’ve got two prop picks for the game.

The pregame narrative: Austin Reaves is shaping into an elite scorer and I expect another big performance in the absence of LeBron James. My other pick is on Denver’s Christian Braun.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Lakers prop picks for March 19.

Nuggets vs. Lakers prop picks

Best Bet: Reaves over 25.5 points (-118)

James is ruled out for the Lakers and that means Reaves will have the green light on offence.

In eight games without LeBron this season, take a look at what Reaves has done:

28.6 points per game
49.0 FG%
43.9 3PT%
6-2 against this line

On March 14, he had 37 points against the Nuggets in Denver on a 13-of-26 shooting performance.

The Lakers have had their most success when rotating Luka Doncic and James, but when the King is out it’s Reaves who steps into the role.

And the same should be expected on Wednesday. The Nuggets have the 12th-worst defensive rating in the NBA (116.5).

That is reflected in the high game total currently set at 233.5. That’s a lot of points, and if it gets near this number, Reaves should be heavily involved.

At that point, it becomes about efficiency. Luckily, the 26-year-old guard has proven to score at a high level while maintaining elite shooting splits.

Key stat: LeBron has missed the last five games, and Reaves scored 26 or more in four of those contests.

Quick pick

Braun over 13.5 points (-110): The Nuggets may not have the best defence but their offence more than makes up for it. The team ranks tied for second in offensive rating (120.9).

Since Feb. 1, Denver is 15-6 and Braun has stepped up his production.

Over that time, Braun has averaged 17.3 points per game.

He’s been hyper-efficient, knocking down 56.7% of his shots and 39.4% of his 3s.

He is 14-6 against this line during that span.

The 23-year-old missed Denver’s last game with an injury after being probable on the injury report. If he goes tonight, I expect him to take on a normal workload.

If he can’t suit up, no harm done as this prop pick would be voided.

Nuggets vs. Lakers prop picks made at 10:51 a.m. ET 03/14/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 19: Back stars Devin Booker and Luka Doncic on Wednesday night

Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker highlights the top NBA prop picks for Wednesday’s busy 11-game slate.

The pregame narrative: Booker has a great matchup against the Chicago Bulls and I expect him to score plenty. I also have plays on Luka Doncic and Devin Vassell.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 19.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Booker over 26.5 points (-125)

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This is a big number and there’s blowout concern.

Phoenix is a 6.5-point favourite, has a pair of 15-plus point wins in its last three games and the Bulls allow the third-most points per game in the NBA.

That said, the Suns give a lot back on the defensive end and have been maddeningly inconsistent this season.

Bradley Beal is also out, taking away the team’s No. 3 scoring option. And when Beal sits, Booker produces more.

Booker is averaging 25.7 PPG, a number that spikes to 28.6, per StatMuse, with Beal on the sidelines (over 20 games).

The Bulls play at the NBA’s third-fastest pace, which could lead to a lot of bucket exchanges between two teams that aren’t great defensively. Tonight’s total (234.5) is among the highest of the slate.

Booker is likely staring down roughly 40 minutes and 20 shot attempts. Several of those jumpers are sure to be from the perimeter (Booker is averaging a career-high 7.6 attempts/game).

The Suns all-star dropped 29 on the Bulls last month, canning four triples.

There’s huge scoring upside here. He’s hit the 35-point mark six times without Beal and all three of his 40-plus-point games have come with his teammate inactive.

Key stat: Booker is 12-8 vs. this line when Beal is out.

Best NBA picks

Doncic over 9.5 rebounds (+108): There’s some solid value here as a plus-money play against the Denver Nuggets.

The Lakers star has cleared this line in three of his last four games — the only four he’s played without LeBron James since joining Los Angeles.

Doncic is averaging 10.8 rebounds per game over that stretch and reached the 40-minute mark twice.

He played the Nuggets in his fourth game as a Laker and corralled 10 boards, one of seven times he’s done so in his last 13 games.

Doncic had nine rebounds in a pre-trade meeting against Denver in November and was 3-0 vs. this line in this matchup last season.

Vassell over 2.5 threes (-117): How good has Vassell’s March been?

Take a look:

Stat	2024-25	March
PPG	16.1	19.6
3PM	2.3	3.1
3P%	35.3%	38.7%
FG%	43.7%	47.5%

With Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox both out for the season, the touches and scoring opportunity should remain there for the San Antonio Spurs’ fifth-year guard.

Vassell has attempted at least seven shots from deep in all but one of his 10 March games, clearing this line six times.

There’s little reason to believe he won’t be uncorking against the New York Knicks, who are 28th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

NBA prop picks made at 12:36 p.m. ET on 03/19/2025.

Nuggets vs. Lakers prop picks March 19: Tail Reaves and Braun in Western Conference showdown

The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers meet for the second time in less than a week, and I’ve got two prop picks for the game.

The pregame narrative: Austin Reaves is shaping into an elite scorer and I expect another big performance in the absence of LeBron James. My other pick is on Denver’s Christian Braun.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Lakers prop picks for March 19.

Nuggets vs. Lakers prop picks

Best Bet: Reaves over 25.5 points (-115)

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James is ruled out for the Lakers and that means Reaves will have the green light on offence.

In eight games without LeBron this season, take a look at what Reaves has done:

28.6 points per game
49.0 FG%
43.9 3PT%
6-2 against this line

On March 14, he had 37 points against the Nuggets in Denver on a 13-of-26 shooting performance.

The Lakers have had their most success when rotating Luka Doncic and James, but when the King is out it’s Reaves who steps into the role.

And the same should be expected on Wednesday. The Nuggets have the 12th-worst defensive rating in the NBA (116.5).

That is reflected in the high game total currently set at 233.5. That’s a lot of points, and if it gets near this number, Reaves should be heavily involved.

At that point, it becomes about efficiency. Luckily, the 26-year-old guard has proven to score at a high level while maintaining elite shooting splits.

Key stat: LeBron has missed the last five games, and Reaves scored 26 or more in four of those contests.

Quick pick

Braun over 13.5 points (-121): The Nuggets may not have the best defence but their offence more than makes up for it. The team ranks tied for second in offensive rating (120.9).

Since Feb. 1, Denver is 15-6 and Braun has stepped up his production.

Over that time, Braun has averaged 17.3 points per game.

He’s been hyper-efficient, knocking down 56.7% of his shots and 39.4% of his 3s.

He is 14-6 against this line during that span.

The 23-year-old missed Denver’s last game with an injury after being probable on the injury report. If he goes tonight, I expect him to take on a normal workload.

If he can’t suit up, no harm done as this prop pick would be voided.

Nuggets vs. Lakers prop picks made at 10:51 a.m. ET 03/14/2025.

Bucks vs. Warriors SGP predictions March 18: Back Milwaukee on road, Lillard in +300 ticket

We have a marquee showdown between the Milwaukee Bucks and Golden State Warriors at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: There won’t be a shortage of stars in this one and I’m betting on one of them — Damian Lillard — to deliver. A moneyline pick and an alternative total recommendation round out this same-game parlay.

Check out my +300 Bucks vs. Warriors SGP predictions for March 18.

Bucks vs. Warriors predictions

Parlay: Lillard over 21.5 points | Under 233.5 points | Bucks moneyline (+300)

Lillard over 21.5 points (-143): This leg will cash even if Lillard comes in well below his season-scoring average.

The all-star point guard is averaging 25.1 points per game and has 30-plus-point upside on any given night.

When these teams met in February, Lillard dropped 38 points on the Warriors. Mind you, that was with teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo on the sidelines.

Antetokounmpo is probable tonight (as is Lillard), but they’ll catch the Warriors on a back-to-back.

Golden State has been excellent at defending point guards this season, which is why we can get Lillard at a lighter number.

Lillard is 7-2 against this line in March and 9-4 since the break.

NBA SGP legs

Under 233.5 points (-195): This is the longest leg of the ticket, and for good reason.

Since the break, both teams have wielded top-10 defences. Golden State is No. 3 in defensive rating and the Bucks rank seventh.

While this is an imperfect way to assess things, it provides a snapshot of how well each team has limited scoring: The Warriors and Bucks are allowing a combined 220.0 PPG over that stretch.

Only one of Milwaukee’s last six games has cleared this total.

Golden State’s offence has taken off since the acquisition of Jimmy Butler, but the Bucks have been comfortably average all season.

Both teams are playing for positioning and the Warriors are trying to avoid the play-in tournament.

I expect the defensive effort to reflect that in what’s a great pre-playoff test for both clubs.

Bucks ML (-143): We could very likely see a key Golden State piece or two sit this one out.

Even if the Warriors deploy a full roster, this is the team’s fourth game in six nights and it’s a difficult second leg of a back-to-back after facing the Denver Nuggets on Monday.

The Bucks have not been a great road team and have struggled against teams over .500.

But they’re 11-6 with a rest advantage, per Team Rankings, and their past 15 games (since losing to the Warriors on Feb. 10) paint a compelling story.

Milwaukee is 10-5 straight up over that stretch.

Among the wins were victories over the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers.

Three of the five losses were by three points or fewer. The other two were against the No. 1 seeds in each conference.

The Bucks are playing good ball at a pivotal time in the season.

Bucks vs. Warriors predictions made at 1:44 p.m. ET 03/18/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 18: Back Kawhi Leonard and fade LaMelo Ball on Tuesday night

Los Angeles Clippers star Kawhi Leonard headlines the top prop picks for Tuesday’s light four-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Leonard is heating up for the surging Clippers and I expect him to stay hot vs. the NBA-best Cleveland Cavaliers. I also have plays on LaMelo Ball and Cameron Johnson.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 18.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Leonard over 21.5 points (-124)

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The Cavaliers have one of the best defences in the NBA (No. 7 on the season, No. 2 since the break), making this a difficult assignment.

Additionally, Norman Powell, the Clippers’ leading scorer, is back after a month-long absence.

Those two things are worth highlighting but aren’t of great concern to me.

Powell (seven points in 23 minutes in his return Sunday) had a great run while Leonard was injured earlier this season. But I don’t think anyone expects him to pace the Clippers in scoring moving forward.

Leonard is healthy and James Harden is having his best offensive month of the season. Powell’s days of averaging 23.4 PPG are probably over.

That means more for others, and I think Leonard is an obvious beneficiary.

If the oft-injured Leonard didn’t miss two months to start the season, we’re not having a conversation about who the top dog on this team is.

Here’s what matters: Leonard is logging heavy minutes and balling.

Leonard has played 35+ minutes in seven of his last eight games. The one time he came under was in a blowout 35-point win.

He has scored 23+ points in three consecutive and reached the 20-point mark nine times in 11 games out of the break.

The veteran’s two highest-scoring games of the season (33 points, 29 points) have come in March.

Key stat: Leonard is averaging 23.1 points and 2.4 threes over his last 10 games.

Best NBA picks

Ball under 27.5 points (-120): This is a juicy matchup for Ball.

The Atlanta Hawks allow the fourth-most points in the NBA and are 29th in opponent 3-point percentage.

Ball likes to shoot and fires from long range as much as anyone in the league. On top of that, teammate Miles Bridges (25.1 PPG since the break) is out tonight.

The Charlotte Hornets star guard should perform, but this is a huge number I can’t bite on.

With the caveat that he’s been battling injuries, Ball is 1-19 vs. this line over his last 20 games.

He cleared this line in four of his first six games this season, but only four times since the end of December.

Johnson over 16.5 points (-129): Tonight’s matchup against the Boston Celtics won’t do Johnson any favours, but he’ll benefit from the absence of Brooklyn Nets teammate Cam Thomas.

Johnson’s scoring goes up by 3.0 PPG with Thomas out of the lineup, per StatMuse.

He’s 7-1 against this line in his last eight games without Thomas, which includes a 23-point effort vs. the Celtics on March 15.

Johnson has cleared this number in 12 of 17 games since the start of February.

The sharpshooter should be expected to carry a heavy load tonight.

He has logged 35-plus minutes in each of his last three games and takes more than half his shots from distance, converting at a 40.1% clip.

NBA prop picks made at 11:28 a.m. ET on 03/18/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 17: Back Tyler Herro and Jaren Jackson Jr. on Monday

Tyler Herro and Jaren Jackson Jr. headline Monday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Herro and Jackson draw great matchups against the New York Knicks and Sacramento Kings, respectively. I’m backing both players to clear their point totals tonight.

Check out my top NBA prop bets for March 17.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Herro over 22.5 points (-130)

Herro is in a mini-slump, averaging 20.0 points in March on 44.7% shooting.

Since November, it’s the only month this season where he’s averaged fewer than 24.0 PPG. That helps explain this low total, which I don’t think bettors will see for much longer.

The point guard has been living right around this line even amid his current struggles:

Herro has scored 21+ points in 5 of 8 games this month and 9 of 13 since the all-star break.
He’s averaging 18.9 field-goal attempts since the ASG, which is 4.5 more than anyone else on the Heat.

In my opinion, Herro should blow by this total if he takes anywhere near 18.9 field goal attempts on Monday.

New York has the third-worst 3-point defence in the NBA (37.3%) and allows the sixth-most points per game to opposing point guards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Herro had 22-plus points in both games against the Heat this year, averaging 28.0 PPG.

Best NBA picks

Jackson over 25.5 points (-108): This shapes up to be a smash spot for Jackson, who will be Memphis’ No. 1 option on Monday with Ja Morant (shoulder) sidelined.

Unsurprisingly, Jackson has produced at a much higher clip this year when the point guard sits:

With Morant (36 games): 21.8 PPG, 15.4 FGA/game
Without Morant (25 games): 24.0 PPG, 17.9 FGA/game

He’s 10-6 against this line when playing north of 25 minutes without Morant. Sacramento is a 3-point favourite in tonight’s contest, meaning Jackson should get plenty of run.

This is also a great matchup.

The Kings allow the second-most points and third-most 3s per game to power forwards, and JJJ scored 28 points when he last played them on Jan. 3.

NBA prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 03/17/2025.