Category: NBA

The Minnesota Timberwolves wrap up their final road trip of the season on Thursday night in a matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The pregame narrative: Unders have been a trend for both teams lately, which is why I’ve got an alt total in this +340 SGP. Even so, I expect Ja Morant and Anthony Edwards both to have an impact as scorers.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies SGP predictions for April 10.

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies predictions

• Full NBA betting markets
• NBA injury report
• NBA stats & standings

Parlay: Under 240.5 points | Morant 25+ points | Edwards 25+ points (+340)

Embed: #112368

Under 240.5 points (-250): Both teams are cashing overs more than 54% of the time, but I think this teased-up total will be out of reach tonight.

• This under has cashed in 8 of 9 games for the Timberwolves since March 19. The exception was a double-overtime matchup against the Nuggets, in which there were 224 total points at the end of regulation.

• Unders are 15-11-0 for Minnesota when the team is a road favourite, per Team Rankings.

• When these teams last met in Memphis, on Jan. 20, they combined for 214 points (in a game with a 235.5-point projected total).

Unders are 5-2 in Memphis’ past seven games, including each of its past three.

NBA SGP legs

Morant 25+ points (-127): Say what you want about Morant’s on-court celebrations, but the man is really hooping right now.

Over his past 13 games, Morant is averaging 29.5 points. He has hit this points milestone in four straight games, as well as 11 of his past 13.

Keep in mind that Morant’s hot streak includes some paltry 3-point shooting (29.8% on 7.2 attempts/game). He’s just taking tons of shots overall and finding his way to the free-throw line.

Neither of Morant’s previous matchups against the Timberwolves went particularly well. But those were both months ago, and I’m compelled to back the two-time all-star based on what he’s gotten up to lately.

Edwards 25+ points (-215): I would say Edwards is on a roll offensively, but he’s kind of been that way all year.

At 27.4 PPG, Edwards ranks fifth in the NBA in scoring this season. He’s hit the 25-point mark in 46 of 76 games (60.5%).

Since the start of March, Edwards has cashed this bet in 13 of 18 games.

As previously mentioned, the Jan. 20 matchup between these teams in Memphis wasn’t very high-scoring. But that didn’t stop Edwards from dropping 32 points.

Since January 2024, Edwards has averaged 27.3 PPG in four matchups against the Grizzlies.

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies predictions made at 1:20 p.m. ET 04/10/2025.

On Wednesday night, Luka Doncic returns to Dallas for the first time since the seismic midseason trade, as his Los Angeles Lakers face the Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: Doncic was a dominant force in his first matchup against his old team, notching a triple-double in a winning effort. But I cashed a fade of him on that night, and I’ll try to do so again.

Check out these Luka Doncic props for the April 9 matchup against the Mavericks.

BOOST: Luka to drop 30/10/10 in return to Dallas (+770, was +700). Bet now!

Luka Doncic props vs. Mavericks

• Full NBA betting markets
• NBA injury report
• NBA stats & standings

Best Doncic prop bet

Best Bet: Under 47.5 points/rebounds/assists (-109)

Embed: #112319

I’m trying to prevent the narrative of the night from taking over.

Because on one hand, wouldn’t you expect Doncic to set fire to American Airlines Center and give a mourning Dallas crowd a knife-twisting show?

On the other hand, this line has been too lofty for Doncic in recent weeks with the emergence of Austin Reaves. I’m not ready to refer to Doncic, LeBron James and Reaves as a Big Three … but they’re playing like it right now.

Here are their statistical averages since the start of March:

• Doncic: 29.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, 8.1 assists (45.4 PRA)

• LeBron: 23.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, 7.2 assists (37.3 PRA)

• Reaves: 23.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists (34.3 PRA)

When three players are capable of at least flirting with a 25/5/5 stat line on a nightly basis, it’s difficult to back any of them individually to clear a 47.5-PRA prop.

Doncic posted an inefficient triple-double in his first matchup against the Mavericks back in February. He scored 19 points on 6-of-17 shooting, but buoyed the stat line with 15 rebounds and 12 assists.

Anthony Davis, who is healthy now, didn’t play in that game. From a rebounding standpoint, that matters.

I expect AD to gobble up plenty of rebounds, while LeBron and Reaves will also dip into Doncic’s potential as a rebounder and passer.

Doncic should have some cathartic moments on Wednesday night. But that doesn’t convince me to buck his recent trend of reduced production.

Key stat: In his past 12 games, Doncic has averaged 42.7 PRA and hit this under 10 times. He landed on exactly 48 PRA in both outliers.

Luka Doncic prop odds as of 11:10 a.m. ET on 04/09/2025.

Wednesday’s NBA prop bets aren’t brimming with star power, but all three players have been putting on star-calibre performances recently.

The pregame narrative: Christian Braun is shooting the lights out from 3-point range, albeit on limited attempts. Still, he has great value on his 3s prop tonight, while Coby White and Harrison Barnes have enjoyed some impressive scoring surges of their own.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 9.

NBA prop bets

• Full NBA betting markets
• NBA injury report
• NBA stats & standings

Best Bet: Braun over 1.5 threes (+145)

Embed: #112298

The sky is falling in Denver, where the Nuggets have fired head coach Michael Malone and announced they will not extend general manager Calvin Booth.

It’s a stunning set of moves for a team that is two seasons removed from a championship and heading back to the postseason for a seventh consecutive year.

But will this situation have any effect on Braun?

That’s difficult to predict, but with longtime Denver assistant David Adelman taking the helm on an interim basis, my guess is no. The shakeup is worth mentioning, but it shouldn’t deter bettors from a prop like this.

Braun is an efficient 3-point shooter (39.8%) whose volume disappoints at times. But he’s trending up in that regard, which is nice to see:

• October – February (59 games): 2.6 attempts/game, 36.8 3PT%

• March – April (17 games): 3.8 attempts/game, 46.9 3PT%

With a line this low, any 3-point shot volume increase is significant. And it should continue with a Grade-A matchup against the Sacramento Kings on deck.

The Kings allow the second-most 3s per game (14.7) on the highest opponent 3PT% (38.2).

Braun is 5-for-11 against the Kings from deep this season, cashing this bet in both games.

Key stat: Since the start of March, Braun has gone over 1.5 threes in 10 of 17 games.

Best NBA picks

White over 22.5 points (-117): If you haven’t been paying attention to the Bulls lately, you’re missing the Coby White show.

The sixth-year guard has been on a mission in the past month-plus, putting up big scoring numbers on almost a nightly basis.

Check out his stats in 18 games since March 1:

• 28.4 PPG
• 51.7 FG%
• 40.0 3PT%
• 89.3 FT%
• 25+ points in 15 of 18

White rested yesterday, so he should be in peak form despite the fact that the Chicago Bulls are on a back-to-back.

He finished just shy of this mark on the road against the Miami Heat recently (21 points on March 8), but that was a game in which he shot 0-for-8 from deep.

In tonight’s rematch at home, I love his opportunity to smash the over.

Barnes over 13.5 points (-122): Nearly a decade removed from his time with the Golden State Warriors, Barnes probably doesn’t qualify for the revenge game narrative when he links up with his old club.

But he has put up some solid numbers in recent head-to-head matchups, and he’s also on fire in general right now.

• Barnes is averaging 18.3 PPG against the Warriors since November 2023. He’s cashed this bet 4 of 6 games during that span.

• So far in April, Barnes has 17+ points in all five games, featuring some absurd shooting splits (61.3/57.6/92.9).

Both teams are on back-to-backs, which is fine with me. Barnes has gone over 13.5 points in four of five back-to-backs since the start of March.

NBA prop picks made at 9:14 a.m. ET on 04/09/2025.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards have my attention on Tuesday’s NBA prop market.

The pregame narrative: SGA has been a bit quieter than usual as a scorer in recent games, but he’s ratcheting up his assist numbers. Edwards, meanwhile, is shooting — and scoring — in bunches. In the final game of the night, Stephon Castle is my top fade candidate against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 8.

NBA prop bets

• Full NBA betting markets
• NBA injury report
• NBA stats & standings

Best Bet: Castle under 1.5 threes (-118)

Embed: #112287

Castle is looking like the runaway winner in the NBA Rookie of the Year race, but it’s not because of his 3-point shooting.

• Castle has a 28.3 3PT% this season, which ranks 23rd out of 26 rookies (minimum 15 games played and 2.0 attempted 3s per game).

• With those same parameters (15 GP and 2.0 3PA), Castle ranks 291st out of 303 NBA players in 3PT%.

Castle is even colder from deep right now, and he’s in a matchup that won’t work to his advantage. So there are lots of reasons to fade the ex-UConn guard.

Over their past 15 games, the Clippers — Castle’s opponents — have allowed the fewest 3s per game (10.9) on a league-low 31.9 3PT%.

Castle is just 2-for-13 from deep against the Clips this season, hitting this under in two of three games.

He’s better off scoring from the inside while creating value as a passer and rebounder. Those are the traits that have him on the cusp of NBA ROY honours.

Key stat: Castle is shooting 24.4% from deep in his past 10 games, going under 1.5 threes in eight of those matchups.

Best NBA picks

Gilgeous-Alexander 8+ assists (+116): There’s a lot of juice on SGA over 6.5 assists (-152), so let’s bump up the risk a bit with this plus-money milestone.

Here’s my case for riding with the MVP favourite against the Los Angeles Lakers:

• Gilgeous-Alexander has 8+ assists in 7 of 10 games since March 16.

• He finished with exactly nine assists in both matchups against L.A. this season (including this past Sunday).

• Since March 1, SGA has averaged 12.8 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com.

And as a cherry on top, the Lakers allow the third-most assists to opposing point guards (9.7), per Betting Pros.

Edwards over 26.5 points (-127): I wouldn’t want to face Edwards right now with the type of run he’s on.

Check out his stats in the past 12 games:

• 28.6 PPG
• 20+ points in 10 of 12
• 27+ points in 8 of 12

His 35.1 3PT% in that span isn’t particularly notable — but his 10.9 attempted 3s per game are.

Given that he’s taking about 20 shots per night right now, and about half of them are coming beyond the arc, Edwards has an opportunity baseline that any prop bettor can appreciate.

I hope to see that 3-point volume remain high against the Milwaukee Bucks, who allow the eighth-most attempted 3s per game (39.1).

Edwards had 28 points on 10-of-33 shooting (4-of-17 from 3-point range) when he faced Milwaukee in February.

NBA prop picks made at 2:14 p.m. ET on 04/09/2025.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.