Category: NBA

The NBA regular season is over, and the first round of the playoffs is set to begin on the weekend. Before that happens, we’ve got play-in tournament action to attend to.

The latest: Four teams per conference are competing for the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds, including Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors against Ja Morant‘s Memphis Grizzlies. The winner of that game will be a 7-seed, while the loser will host a do-or-die game for the final playoff spot.

Check out our basketball betting lines and NBA schedule for the play-in tournament on April 15-16.

NBA schedule: Play-in tournament

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors

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Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings

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Betting insights

• Orlando and Atlanta played twice in the final week of the regular season, and both teams got the win on their home court. The Magic cashed unders at the second-highest rate in the NBA (57.3%) this season, while the Hawks cashed overs at the second-highest rate (61.7%), per Team Rankings.

• Golden State went 3-1 against Memphis this season, which includes a pair of wins at home. In their most recent head-to-head matchup on April 1, Curry dropped 52 points (12-of-20 from 3-point range) and finished two assists shy of a triple-double in a road win.

• The Bulls are 3-0 SU against the Heat this season despite being the underdogs in each of those games. Chicago is only 18-23 at home, but an April push (6-1 overall this month) led to a home play-in game.
  
• Sacramento has the worst ATS record of all the postseason teams (34-44-4). But the Kings are 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS against the Mavericks this season. Dallas went just 1-6 ATS in its final seven games, losing SU three times in that span as a favourite.

The most important game in the NBA on the final day of the regular season is between the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: With a Game 7 vibe, I’m backing the defensively sound Clippers to cover an alternate spread on the road. This +400 SGP includes a pick on Kawhi Leonard and a fade on Steph Curry.

Check out my Clippers vs. Warriors SGP predictions for April 13.

Clippers vs. Warriors predictions

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Parlay: Clippers +7.5 | Leonard over 23.5 points | Curry under 25.5 points (+400)

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Clippers +7.5 (-210): L.A. is red-hot right now, winning nine of its past 10 games.

It’s also worth noting that the Clippers have covered this spread in 24 straight games.

The Warriors have also been great since they acquired Jimmy Butler, going 23-6 since the trade.

But the Clippers have the upper hand in this head-to-head matchup, having won all three meetings this season — despite Kawhi Leonard not playing in any of those games.

Their defence held the Warriors to an average of 98.3 points in those games.

Now insert both Kawhi and Butler into the conversation, and I think the Clippers should still have the advantage, especially against a lofty spread.

NBA SGP legs

Leonard over 23.5 points (-106): This is as important as it gets for a regular season game, and Toronto Raptors fans should be very knowledgable of how Leonard plays when the lights are the brightest.

Plus, he continues to lean into those robotic tendencies by returning from a lengthy injury recovery to play like he’s in his prime.

Leonard has played 30 or more minutes in 20 games now. Take a look at his averages in that scenario:

• 23.5 points
• 48.6 FG%
• 39.1 3PT%

He’s hyper-efficient, so this leg will come down to volume. But Leonard should be the No. 1 option when the Clippers need a bucket today.

Curry under 25.5 points (-106): It feels wrong to fade Curry as a scorer, but there are two reasons for it.

• Curry is listed as questionable after suffering a thumb sprain on Friday. He managed to return in that game but was held to 14 points on 6-of-14 shooting (2-of-8 from deep).

• The Clippers are an elite defensive team, owning the third-best defensive rating (112.2).

I fully expect Curry to suit up for this must-win game, but I expect he’ll be limited once again by the lingering thumb issue.

Look for the superstar guard to tap into his playmaking roots while leaving the majority of the scoring to Golden State’s secondary options.

Clippers vs. Warriors predictions made at 10:50 a.m. ET 04/13/2025.

The Los Angeles Lakers seek to secure their playoff seeding on Friday night in a home matchup against the Houston Rockets.

The pregame narrative: Houston, which has nothing to play for at this point, has three key players listed as questionable (Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith, Fred VanVleet). I’m fading Luka Doncic, but I like the Lakers to cover an alt spread and for LeBron James to fill the net.

Check out my Rockets vs. Lakers SGP predictions for April 11.

Rockets vs. Lakers predictions

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Parlay: Lakers -5.5 | Doncic under 7.5 rebounds | LeBron 20+ points (+360)

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Lakers -5.5 (-200): The Lakers need this one a lot more than the Rockets do.

Houston is nestled into the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference. And with just two games to play, that isn’t going to change.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, needs a win to lock up the No. 3 spot. Otherwise, they could fall as far as fifth before the regular season concludes.

Less than two weeks ago, the Lakers covered this number in a 104-98 win over the Rockets at Crypto.com Arena.

Given that this game only means something to one side, I think an alt spread like this should be well within range for L.A.

The Lakers are 30-10 at home this season, cashing this bet in 17 of 25 home games since Jan. 1.

NBA SGP legs

Doncic under 7.5 rebounds (+106): This leg is the one that really boosts the SGP’s price, and I think it’s worth your while.

Doncic is definitely one of the more productive rebounding guards — being 230 pounds doesn’t hurt — but he hasn’t put up big numbers in that regard lately.

Over his past 10 games, Doncic has gone under 7.5 rebounds six times. He’s also landed on exactly eight rebounds three other times.

The Rockets allow the fourth-fewest rebounds overall, as well as the seventh-fewest against point guards, per Betting Pros.

Doncic has 11 total rebounds against Houston this year, hitting this under in both matchups.

LeBron 20+ points (-205): For an ageless superstar who’s averaging 24.6 points per game, I’ll gladly add LeBron to this parlay at this milestone.

LeBron only had 16 points when he faced the Rockets on March 31, but that was an efficient night given that he took an uncharacteristically low 12 shots.

Why did LeBron only take 12 shots? Probably because two bench players — Dorian Finney-Smith and Gabe Vincent — caught fire from deep and shot a combined 12-of-24 beyond the arc.

In the likely event that that doesn’t happen again, LeBron should wind up closer to his average of 18.2 field-goal attempts.

LeBron has 20-plus points in 49 of 69 games, as well as 18-plus points in 58 of 69.

Warriors vs. Lakers predictions made at 2:00 p.m. ET 04/11/2025.