Category: NBA

The top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers host the Miami Heat on Sunday night in Game 1 of their opening-round Eastern Conference playoff series.

The pregame narrative: Ty Jerome is a bit of an unsung hero for the Cavaliers, and I think his points prop is in bargain territory. On the other side, Tyler Herro is a reliable, high-volume shooter from 3-point range that should can a few triples tonight.

Check out my Heat vs. Cavaliers prop picks for April 20.

Heat vs. Cavaliers prop picks

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Best Bet: Herro over 2.5 threes (-103)

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There are three reasons why I think this is a great pick for Game 1 of tonight’s series between Miami and Cleveland:

1. Herro shot 37.5% from 3-point range on 8.7 attempts this year. That means he was routinely putting himself in position to cash this bet.

2. He’s been torching the Cavaliers in recent matchups. Herro has 3+ threes in five straight games against Cleveland. In two meetings this season, he shot 9-for-19 from deep.

3. Herro came up clutch in the play-in tournament. In a pair of must-win games, he dropped 30+ points twice and shot 8-for-17 from deep.

Cleveland posted a top-10 defensive rating this season, but the more fearsome component of its defence is the interior tandem of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

The Cavaliers ranked 13th in the NBA in 3-point percentage, attempts and makes this season. So not a plus matchup, per se, but not a terrible one, either.

I love where Herro’s 3-point volume has been all season, and his recent form combined with success against the Cavs makes this worth a look.

Key stat: Including the play-in games, Herro has cashed this bet in 51 of 79 games (64.6%).

Quick pick

Jerome over 9.5 points (-110): Through his first five NBA seasons, Jerome averaged just 7.0 PPG and bounced between four organizations.

It seems he’s found a home in Cleveland, though, where he blossomed into a remarkably productive bench option this season.

Jerome played 70 games (three starts) and averaged 12.5 PPG on 51.6/43.9/87.2 shooting splits.

He hit the 10-point milestone in 43 of 70 games (61.4%) — including all three against the Heat. And he only shot 4-for-15 from deep in the Miami matchups, so it’s not like he just happened to get hot beyond the arc.

Heat vs. Cavaliers prop picks made at 11:41 a.m. ET 04/20/2025.

On the first day of the NBA playoffs, I’m targeting a trio of prop bets from the four-game slate.

The pregame narrative: Kawhi Leonard has been on fire for weeks, and he’s worth backing on his points prop against the Denver Nuggets. I’m also taking the over on Donte DiVincenzo‘s 3s prop and fading Jalen Duren.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 19.

NBA prop bets

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Best Bet: Leonard over 24.5 points (-122)

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How long will Leonard be at the top of his game? I’m not sure, but I’ll ride the wave while I can.

Leonard has only played 51.1% of regular-season games over the past eight seasons. His injury woes are well-documented … but so are his on-court accolades.

And right now, we’re seeing a version of The Claw that should put the rest of the playoff field on notice.

Check out how Leonard performed in the final 15 games of the year:

• 26.5 PPG
• 55.2 FG%
• 49.3 3PT%
• 84.7 FT%

Also of note is the fact that Leonard played 42-plus minutes in back-to-back games to close out the season. He hadn’t done that since April 2023.

If you’re spooked by Leonard’s lengthy injury history, maybe steer clear of the Clippers on the NBA Finals futures market. But taking things one game at a time, Leonard is a player to target.

Leonard didn’t face Denver during the season, but the Nuggets allowed the sixth-most points to opposing small forwards, per Betting Pros.

Key stat: Leonard has 20-plus points in 15 consecutive games, cashing this bet in 10 of those matchups.

Best NBA picks

DiVincenzo over 2.5 threes (+114): A toe sprain caused DiVincenzo to miss almost six weeks of action this season, but he’s been excellent since returning in late February.

Over his final 22 games, the former Knick put on a clinic from 3-point range:

• 44.7 3PT%
• 2+ threes in 20 of 22
• 3+ threes in 15 of 22

In his first game post-injury, DiVincenzo went 3-for-6 from deep against the Los Angeles Lakers, who he’ll face on Saturday night.

The Minnesota Timberwolves run through Anthony Edwards, obviously, but DiVincenzo has been crushing it off the bench and looks like a bargain in this market.

Duren under 22.5 points/rebounds (-110): The Detroit Pistons went 3-1 against the New York Knicks this season, but Duren didn’t do much to help the cause.

• In four games against the Knicks, Duren averaged 11.3 points and 7.8 rebounds (19.1 PR).

• Duren finished below 22.5 PR in 3 of 4 games. In the lone exception, he was a perfect 9-for-9 from the field.

Throughout the season, Duren averaged 11.8 points and 10.3 rebounds (22.1 PR), so this number is just a whisker above his average. And given how tough the matchup is, I think the under is the play.

The Knicks allow the third-fewest points and the fewest rebounds to opposing centres.

NBA prop picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET on 04/18/2025.

The Atlanta Hawks host the Miami Heat on Friday night for the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

The pregame narrative: Tonight’s winner will likely get waxed by the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round, but we don’t need to worry about that right now. In this +270 SGP, I think two lesser-known players, Georges Niang and Davion Mitchell, are worth backing on milestone props.

Check out my Heat vs. Hawks play-in SGP predictions for April 19.

Heat vs. Hawks predictions

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Parlay: Over 214.5 points | Niang 2+ threes | Mitchell 6+ assists (+270)

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Over 214.5 points (-180): The Hawks hit a lot of overs, and doing so at this number really shouldn’t be a problem.

• Overs are 26-14-0 (65.0%) in Atlanta’s home games this year, per Team Rankings. That’s the highest rate in the NBA.

• The Hawks play at the fastest pace of any home team in the NBA (104.20 possessions per game).

• This over has cashed in 35 of Atlanta’s past 36 games, dating back to Jan. 30.

The only time the Hawks failed to hit this point total since Jan. 30 was a 98-86 win over the Heat on Feb. 24. But I view that as a complete anomaly.

Since last April, overs are 4-1 in head-to-head matchups between these teams. Also, overs are 5-1 in Miami’s past six games overall.

NBA SGP legs

Niang 2+ threes (-167): Niang was the least exciting asset in this year’s deadline deal that saw Caris LeVert and De’Andre Hunter trade places. But he still plays a valuable role.

Coming off the bench for about 23 minutes per night, Niang shot the lights out from 3-point range for the Hawks in the regular season:

• 41.3 3PT%
• 2.7 makes/game
• 6.6 attempts/game
• 2+ threes in 21 of 28 games

Niang went under this milestone with 1-for-4 shooting from deep in Atlanta’s first play-in game. The Hawks were a miserable 4-for-21 (19.0%) from 3-point range in that matchup.

But Niang’s broader body of work with his new team is stellar, and I think he deserves enough looks on Friday to cash this bet.

Mitchell 6+ assists (-150): Mitchell doesn’t typically start for the Heat, but he still plays plenty of minutes and is relied upon to run the offence for significant stretches.

Take Wednesday’s play-in game, for example. Coming off the bench, Mitchell played 33 minutes and had nine assists.

In 11 games prior, Mitchell averaged 32.6 minutes and 6.8 assists despite only making one start.

My hope is that Atlanta pushes the pace to an extent where Mitchell gets a ton of assist opportunities. He has cashed this bet in two of three games against the Hawks since joining the Heat

Heat vs. Hawks predictions made at 11:30 a.m. ET 04/18/2025.

I’m buying in on Klay Thompson in a playoff-calibre atmosphere. That strategy has worked out many times in the past.

The pregame narrative: Can Thompson guide the Dallas Mavericks out of the play-in tournament? That remains to be seen, but I do like the over on his point total for Friday’s matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies. I’m also fading Onyeka Okongwu and Dereck Lively.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for the play-in tournament matchups on April 18.

NBA prop bets

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Best Bet: Thompson over 14.5 points (-105)

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Rumours of Thompson’s demise seem to have been exaggerated.

After the longtime Warrior walked to free agency, there was some skepticism about what Thompson would have in the tank for his age-34 season.

And sure, his volume stats are down — but his efficiency is holding up well.

• 2024-25 season: 39.1 3PT%, 90.5 FT%, 53.5 eFG%

• Career: 41.1 3PT%, 86.0 FT%, 54.9 eFG%

Thompson averaged 14.0 points per game this season, which was his lowest sum since his rookie year (2011-12). Still, that puts him right around this total — and I expect him to be heavily involved in a win-or-go-home matchup.

On Wednesday, the four-time NBA champion dropped 23 points on 8-of-11 shooting (5-of-7 from 3-point range). He played 33-plus minutes for the first time in a month, too.

Generating offence beyond the arc will be key for Thompson’s scoring ceiling, as it always has been. And the Memphis Grizzlies are a solid opponent for him to work against, as the Grizzlies allow the sixth-most attempted 3s per game.

Thompson was running point for the Mavericks in their first play-in game. The Grizzlies have allowed the third-most PPG to opposing point guards over the past month, per Betting Pros.

Key stat: Thompson scored exactly 15 points in back-to-back matchups against Memphis (despite playing fewer than 30 minutes in both of those games).

Best NBA picks

Lively under 4.5 rebounds (+104): In Wednesday’s play-in game, there were seven Mavericks players with at least three rebounds.

Lively wasn’t one of them.

The 7-foot-1 centre, who was the tallest man on the court for either team, finished with one rebound in 18 minutes.

Led by Anthony Davis, the Mavs have a small army of capable rebounders that needn’t rely on Lively. And given that he hasn’t played 20-plus minutes since January, I’m not looking to rely on him either.

Memphis centre Zach Edey is averaging 15.9 rebounds/game this month, and the Grizzlies allow the ninth-fewest rebounds to opposing centres.

Okongwu under 10.5 rebounds (-107): At 6-foot-8 and 235 pounds, Okongwu is a severely undersized centre. And this line is asking a lot of him.

• Okongwu is averaging 10.0 rebounds in 41 games since being promoted to the starting lineup in January.

• He has gone under 10.5 rebounds in 25 of those 41 games (61.0%).

The fifth-year big has already seen the Miami Heat three times as a starter this year, and he finished with nine or fewer boards in each of those games.

Bam Adebayo (6-foot-9, 255 pounds) might be a bit undersized for a centre, but the Heat also have 7-footer Kel’el Ware in the frontcourt.

Miami has allowed the third-fewest rebounds to opposing centres in the past 30 days.

NBA prop picks made at 1:37 p.m. ET on 04/17/2025.