Category: NBA

There’s a compelling, all-Texas tussle on Wednesday night in Houston, where the Rockets host the San Antonio Spurs.

The pregame narrative: Houston and San Antonio have split their season series thus far, with both teams winning on home court. The Rockets are slight favourites tonight, and I’m backing them on the moneyline in this +335 same-game parlay.

Check out my Spurs vs. Rockets SGP predictions for Jan. 28, featuring prop bets on Victor Wembanyama and Alperen Sengun.

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Spurs vs. Rockets SGP

Parlay: Rockets ML | Wembanyama under 23.5 points | Sengun 15+ rebounds/assists (+335)

Rockets moneyline (-143): Less than three weeks ago, the Rockets had one of the worst NBA losses of the season. As 14.5-point favourites in Sacramento, with no load management absences, they lost by 13.

I’m not going to try to excuse that away, but I do want to credit Houston for what it’s accomplished more recently.

The Rockets are 5-1 in their past six games, with wins (SU and ATS) against the Spurs, Timberwolves and Pistons in that span.

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Houston’s 111-106 win over San Antonio came at home, and I’m happy to back the Rockets at Toyota Center again tonight. The Rockets are 16-3 at home with a +8.6 net rating (fourth in the NBA).

The Spurs just lost by nine as 11.5-point favourites in New Orleans, and this will be a tough venue to bounce back in.

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NBA SGP legs

Wembanyama under 23.5 points (-121): Wembanyama is shooting a lot more 3s than he was at the start of the season, which lessens my desire to fade him.

But I have faith in the Rockets’ perimeter defence, which has kept the clamps on Wemby and most other shooters this season.

• Wembanyama is 0-for-9 from 3-point range across two matchups vs. the Rockets this year.

• Houston allows the fifth-fewest made 3s on the fourth-lowest opponent 3PT%.

-> Fade Wembanyama vs. the Rockets

Wemby has played nine career games against the Rockets now, and the results for the superstar are rough: 17.0 PPG, 42.0 FG%, 18.4 3PT%. This under is 8-1.

In his past 10 games overall, this under is 6-4. The tough defensive matchup tonight really drives home the point that Wemby is worth fading.

Sengun 15+ rebounds/assists (-148): With a 7-foot-4 giant roving the court for the Spurs, it might seem like Sengun would struggle to hit this mark. But that hasn’t been the case.

Sengun cashed this milestone prop in both matchups vs. San Antonio this season. That includes posting 13 rebounds and nine assists against the Spurs just last week.

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The Turkish centre is 23-14 vs. this milestone on the season, averaging 9.0 rebounds and 6.4 assists.

San Antonio is actually a plus matchup for this prop, given that the team allows the most assists per game to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros.

Spurs vs. Rockets predictions made at 11:50 a.m. on Jan. 28, 2026.

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A trio of under-24 hoopers have my attention for Wednesday’s NBA prop picks, headlined by Kon Knueppel.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Though his scoring volume is down a bit lately, Knueppel is adding value as a rebounder. I’m backing him on the glass at plus-money odds tonight and looking for Golden State’s Moses Moody to stay blazing hot from 3-point range.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 28, featuring a pick on Orlando Magic point guard Anthony Black.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 28

Best bet: Knueppel over 5.5 rebounds (+114)

Knueppel is my favourite rookie in the 2025-26 class, and I’ve backed him several times this season on scoring props.

I’m going in a different direction tonight, though, for the sake of some plus-money odds.

The small forward is averaging exactly 5.5 rebounds this year. But that number has been trending way up in recent weeks.

In January, Knueppel is averaging 6.4 RPG. And he has 10+ rebounds in three of his past six games — something he’d done just twice all season previously.

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Neither of Charlotte’s centres averages north of 25 minutes, which means other players have opportunities to chip in on the glass.

Knueppel, listed at 6-foot-6 and 215 pounds, is one of the guys stepping up.

NBA.com’s tracking data backs up that claim, as evidenced by the rebound chances stat. That tracks how many times someone is the closest player to the ball between “when the ball has crossed below the rim to when it is fully rebounded.”

This month, Knueppel has averaged 12.1 rebound chances. Among 47 players averaging at least 10.0 rebound chances this month, 38 are averaging at least 6.0 rebounds.

As the cherry on top, Kneuppel’s opponents tonight — the Memphis Grizzlies — are allowing the second-most rebounds to small forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Knueppel is 5-2 vs. this prop in his past seven games, averaging 7.9 RPG in that span.

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Best NBA picks

Black over 1.5 threes (-124): I can’t figure out why this line is priced so reasonably, but I’d rather bet it than question it.

• Since Dec. 22, Black is 13-4 vs. this prop, averaging 2.5 makes on 6.3 attempts (40.2%).

• He’s 6-1 vs. this prop in his past seven games.

• The 3-point shot volume has been healthy, with Black firing 5+ attempted 3s in nine of 11 games this month.

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Black will face the Miami Heat, who allow the fourth-most 3-point attempts in the NBA.

The point guard is hot on the perimeter, so I’m feeling good about this milestone as long as the shot volume remains steady (and it should).

NBA player prop predictions

Moody over 2.5 threes (-124): The Golden State Warriors are 9.5-point road favourites tonight in a dream matchup. They’re facing a Utah Jazz team that just lost by a dozen last night.

Utah is allowing the most 3s, 3-point attempts and total points per game this season. Golden State should dominate, allowing vets like Steph Curry and Draymond Green — both of whom are “probable” on the injury report — to play reduced roles.

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That’s where the 23-year-old Moody comes in. He’s been on fire from deep, and I expect him to take plenty of shots on Wednesday.

Over his past eight games, Moody is 6-2 vs. this prop while shooting 52.8% from beyond the arc. Get this man the ball.

NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 28, 2026.

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The red-hot Los Angeles Clippers look to continue rolling on Tuesday night against the Utah Jazz, who expect to have their best player back in the mix.

The pregame narrative: Lauri Markkanen has missed most of January but should be back on the court tonight. He’ll have to deal with an L.A. squad that is 12-3 in its past 15 games.

Check out my same-game parlay Clippers vs. Jazz picks, featuring prop bets on James Harden and Ace Bailey.

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Clippers vs. Jazz picks

SGP: Jazz +14.5 | Bailey under 12.5 points | Harden 8+ assists (+335)

Jazz +14.5 points (-275): Look, it’s obviously tough to bet against the Clippers tonight. But they can still cruise to a victory while the Jazz hang in for some semi-competitive hoops.

The key tonight is Markkanen (illness), who’s listed as questionable after missing eight of Utah’s past nine games.

In Markkanen’s recent absences, the Jazz went 1-7 with a -15.9 average point differential. Woof.

But in their past 15 games with their talented Finn, the Jazz are 8-7 and have covered this number 12 times. Don’t forget that Markkanen helped Utah to a 129-108 win on opening night vs. the Clippers, too.

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Kawhi Leonard (knee) is back on the injury report and is questionable to play. His availability is really anyone’s guess.

Despite the Clips’ impressive resurgence, they’re still 8-15 SU (11-12 ATS) on the road. This is a big, big number to cover.

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NBA SGP pick

Bailey under 12.5 points (-107): Bailey has been getting a ton of shots up in Markkanen’s absence, but I expect that to be curtailed tonight.

• During a seven-game stretch without Markkanen, the rookie averaged 15.4 points on 13.4 shot attempts. But he was pretty inconsistent, and this under went 3-4 in that span.

• Before then, Bailey was averaging 9.9 PPG on 9.0 shot attempts.

Markkanen has put up 27.9 PPG this season on just south of 20.0 shots per game. He demands the ball when he’s out there, and that’s completely warranted.

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Even if Markkanen isn’t at full strength tonight, I expect he’ll take a big bite out of Bailey’s opportunities.

The No. 5 pick in this past year’s draft has underwhelming shooting splits (45.0/34.0/72.2). He needs volume to produce.

Clippers prop prediction

Harden 8+ assists (-305): L.A.’s bearded floor general has averaged 8.1 assists so far and is 22-20 vs. this prop. With just those numbers in mind, this seems like an absurd amount of juice to deal with.

But the matchup is ideal, and Harden has been serving up tons of assists lately.

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• The Jazz allow the most assists per game (30.8). Back on opening night, when Harden last played in Utah, he tallied 11 assists in under 30 minutes.

• Over his past 11 games, Harden is 8-3 vs. this prop while averaging 8.6 assists.

In Utah’s past 13 games, 10 opponents have had at least one player hit this assist milestone.

Clippers vs. Jazz picks made at 12:15 p.m. on Jan. 27, 2026.

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The Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons face the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night, and I’m backing a pair of star guards in the prop market.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Cade Cunningham had 11 assists last time out and is always a threat to reach double digits. Look for him to hit the 10-assist milestone tonight and fade Kitchener, Ontario’s Jamal Murray on the other side.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 27, featuring a pick on Phoenix Suns forward Royce O’Neale.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 27

Best bet: Cunningham over 9.5 assists (-114)

If Nikola Jokic were healthy, tonight’s Pistons/Nuggets game would be a showcase of the two most productive playmakers in the league.

We’ll have to settle for one, but Cunningham is a pretty compelling watch on his own.

The all-star guard is in his fifth season, and his assists-per-game rate has climbed with each passing year: 5.6, 6.0, 7.5, 9.1 and 9.7.

Technically, his 9.7 APG leads the NBA. But that’s only because the injured Jokic (11.0 APG) isn’t meeting the minimum game requirement at the moment.

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One stat Cunningham is undisputedly clear of Jokic on is potential assists, which accounts for any passes that lead directly to a shot. According to NBA.com’s tracking data, Detroit’s star is averaging 18.2 potential assists nightly.

Jokic is the only other player north of 16.0 potential assists/game.

Cunningham has cashed this bet in 21 of 38 games (55.3%), and he finished with exactly nine assists in five of the outliers.

Based on this prop’s implied probability (53.3%), there’s some value backing the over tonight.

Key stat: Cunningham is 10-6 vs. this prop in his past 16 games, averaging 10.6 APG in that span.

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Best NBA picks

Murray under 7.5 assists (-134): I don’t expect Murray to go blow-for-blow with Cunningham in the assist department, and this is a fair line to fade him at even with Jokic out.

• This under is 6-4 in Murray’s 10 games without Jokic this season.

• Overall, Murray is averaging 7.3 APG and has gone under 7.5 assists in 23 of 41 matchups (56.1%).

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Detroit allows the fewest assists per game overall and the second-fewest to opposing point guards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Murray (hamstring) is probable to play after missing the Nuggets’ most recent game. Being a little banged up likely won’t help.

NBA player prop predictions

O’Neale over 2.5 threes (-109): Devin Booker will miss a second consecutive game tonight, which should allow for O’Neale and others to take more shots from 3-point range.

Last time out, O’Neale went 0-for-7 from deep. Though I’m obviously hoping for a better result, the volume is nice to see.

And really, that’s a pretty standard shot count for the ninth-year pro. He’s having a career-best season from 3-point range, hitting at a 40.8% clip on 6.9 attempts.

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O’Neale is 29-17 vs. this prop.

Tonight, he’ll face a Brooklyn Nets squad that allows the highest opponent 3PT% in the league (38.3%).

NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 27, 2026.

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