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Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 1: Bet on Minnesota bigs Gobert and Randle

The Golden State Warriors survived the Houston Rockets in seven games to set up a daunting showdown with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota handled business in the opening round, taking down Luka Doncic’s Los Angeles Lakers in five games. Golden State almost let a 3-1 lead slip away and enters this second-round matchup as a +155 underdog to advance.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 1 prop picks for Tuesday, May 6, featuring plays on Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Gobert over 10.5 rebounds (-120)

Gobert’s first round was interesting to say the least. He turned in four duds before playing the role of hero in Game 5.

The veteran torched the Lakers for 27 points and 24 rebounds.

His point production was more than he’d had in the previous four games combined. He grabbed a total of 25 rebounds in Games 1-4 of that series.

Gobert never touched the 30-minute mark in Games 1-4 before logging 39 in the closeout game.

So what can we expect from him in Game 1? It’s hard not to believe Gobert bought himself some goodwill with his series-clinching performance.

The Warriors are an interesting matchup for Gobert and the Timberwolves, as any Golden State lineup will be undersized.

Golden State’s most common five-man lineups in the opening round saw the 6-foot-6 Draymond Green at centre. So the Warriors will give up plenty of size with the 7-foot-1 Gobert on the court.

Minnesota can either go big with Gobert and achieve a likely edge on the boards or go a smaller, more athletic route to match up better with Golden State.

My best guess is the Timberwolves go somewhere in the middle, ensuring enough minutes for Gobert to have a big game on the glass.

While Gobert doesn’t have the offensive upside to secure the same minutes as Alperen Sengun, we just saw the Rockets centre torch the Warriors in the first round.

Sengun averaged 11.9 boards in the series, hauling in 14+ three times.

Gobert is the best rebounder in this series, averaging 10.9/game in the regular season.

Key stat: Gobert had 10-plus rebounds in three of four games vs. Golden State this season (averaging 10.5 in the head-to-head).

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Game 1 prop prediction

Randle over 27.5 points/rebounds (-113): Randle is another player who can benefit from Golden State’s small-ball lineups.

He doesn’t have the same size as Gobert. But at 6-foot-9, there will likely be stretches when he’s the tallest player on the court.

Randle only averaged 5.2 boards in the Lakers series, but he was a beast offensively and has more rebounding upside than that.

The 30-year-old averaged 7.1 RPG in the regular season.

Randle averaged 8.3 rebounds in four games vs. Golden State this season.

He averaged at least 9.0 RPG in five straight seasons coming into this year.

After a 16-point, five-rebound Game 1 against Los Angeles, Randle cleared this line in four straight. He averaged 38.0 minutes in the series, scoring 25-plus points twice.

Randle’s 22.6 PPG scoring average in the Lakers series was second on Minnesota to Anthony Edwards (26.8).

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 11:58 a.m. ET 05/06/2025.

Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions Game 2: Bet on Tyrese Haliburton to shine, Indiana to cover

The Cleveland Cavaliers look to even their second-round series at home on Tuesday night against the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Cleveland is a 9-point favourite after dropping Game 1 against the plucky Pacers. Indiana is now 4-1 straight up against Cleveland since January, but another upset win tonight would be a tall order.

Check out my Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions for Game 2 on May 6, featuring Tyrese Haliburton and Max Strus.

Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions

Parlay: Pacers +10.5 | Over 224.5 points | Haliburton 10+ assists | Strus 2+ threes (+400)

Pacers +10.5 (-137): The Cavaliers are still -225 favourites to win this series, and I won’t push back on that. But I do expect Indiana to be a pest the whole way through.

In 10 head-to-head matchups since April 2023, Indiana is 10-0 against this alt spread. The Pacers have also won six of those games outright.

Look at this Pacers roster and you’ll find plenty of scoring depth. They had seven rotation players averaging 10.0 points per game or more this season, and six guys went for double figures in Game 1.

Cleveland has higher-end stars with Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, but the Pacers can roll with a strong lineup for a full 48 minutes. I see value in that.

Indiana is 14-10 ATS as a road underdog, per Team Rankings.

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NBA SGP legs

Over 224.5 points (-175): These teams breeze by this alt total last time out, combining for 233 points in Indiana’s victory.

At this number, overs are 7-2 in the past nine Indiana/Cleveland matchups (dating back to the start of the 2023-24 season).

The average score in those nine head-to-head matchups is 231.4 points.

This doesn’t seem like a fluke to me, given that both teams are willing to play at a brisk pace. During the regular season, Indiana and Cleveland both ranked in the top 10 in terms of possessions per game.

Haliburton 10+ assists (-150): Haliburton was the NBA assists leader last year (10.9 APG), clearing a 10-assist average for a second consecutive season.

At 9.2 APG this year, he didn’t quite rise to that standard again. But he’s looking like his old self in the playoffs.

11.8 APG (1st in NBA)
84.0 passes/game (1st)
17.3 potential assists/game (3rd)
10+ assists in 5 of 6 games

After Haliburton dished 13 assists in the series opener, I expect him to cash this milestone prop.

Strus 2+ threes (-250): Cleveland shot 9-for-38 (23.7%) from 3-point range in Game 1. That has to be better, and Strus needs to be part of the solution.

Strus went 2-for-8 from the perimeter last time out and should be relied upon for heavy volume again. He has averaged 2.3 threes or more in each of his past four seasons.

And the sixth-year wing is no stranger to postseason play, either.

Over his past 13 playoff games (since April 30, 2024), Strus has averaged 2.8 made 3s on 40.4% shooting.

Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions made at 9:32 a.m. ET 05/06/2025.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions Game 1: Bet on Minnesota to win, Edwards to light it up from 3-point range

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors embark on their second-round playoff series Tuesday night at Target Center.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota has a distinct rest advantage for Game 1, as Golden State is coming off a Game 7 road win on Sunday night. The Warriors have won three in a row against the Timberwolves, but these teams haven’t matched up since mid-January.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for Game 1 on May 6, featuring Anthony Edwards and Steph Curry.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves ML | Edwards over 3.5 threes | Curry over 26.5 points (+350)

Timberwolves moneyline (-286): I’ll be awfully impressed, and stunned, if Golden State emerges with a win in Game 1.

The veteran-driven team was just in Houston on Sunday night to close out a seven-game series against the Rockets. That means two road playoff games in a span of three days, which is never an easy task.

Minnesota, meanwhile, will be coming off five days of rest. The T-Wolves are 13-7 with a rest advantage this year, per Team Rankings.

Golden State is 3-1 against Minnesota this year, but it’s been well over three months since these teams matched up. So I’m not putting much stock in that.

The T-Wolves are 11-1 at home since March and deserve respect for handling the Los Angeles Lakers in five games.

NBA SGP legs

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-154): Edwards went 0-for-11 from 3-point range in Minnesota’s first-round closeout game. You can look at that a couple of ways.

Pessimistically, you might say that that type of performance doesn’t warrant backing Edwards to cash this 3s milestone prop on Tuesday.

Optimistically, you might see upside in how many 3s he attempted despite the futility.

I reside in the latter camp. Edwards shot through the slump, and that gives me faith that he’s capable of operating with heavy volume regardless of the outcome.

Dating back to the regular season, Edwards has 4+ threes in 7 of his past 10 home games.

In four matchups vs. Golden State this year, Edwards shot 17-for-39 (43.6%), cashing this prop every time.

Curry over 26.5 points (-108): Curry put on two stellar performances in Minnesota earlier this season, putting up 31 points apiece while collectively shooting 14-for-28 from beyond the arc.

He struggled most of the way in Golden State’s series-clinching win on Sunday before finding his rhythm late with a 14-point fourth quarter.

The Baby-Faced Assassin is 37 now, but he can still turn back the clock in any given game.

Since the 2023 postseason, Curry has 27-plus points in 14 of 20 games.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions made at 3:32 p.m. ET 05/05/2025.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions Game 1: Bet on Minnesota to win, Edwards to light it up from 3-point range

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors embark on their second-round playoff series Tuesday night at Target Center.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota has a distinct rest advantage for Game 1, as Golden State is coming off a Game 7 road win on Sunday night. The Warriors have won three in a row against the Timberwolves, but these teams haven’t matched up since mid-January.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for Game 1 on May 6, featuring Anthony Edwards and Steph Curry.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves ML | Edwards 4+ threes | Curry 25+ points (+300)

Timberwolves moneyline (-275): I’ll be awfully impressed, and stunned, if Golden State emerges with a win in Game 1.

The veteran-driven team was just in Houston on Sunday night to close out a seven-game series against the Rockets. That means two road playoff games in a span of three days, which is never an easy task.

Minnesota, meanwhile, will be coming off five days of rest. The T-Wolves are 13-7 with a rest advantage this year, per Team Rankings.

Golden State is 3-1 against Minnesota this year, but it’s been well over three months since these teams matched up. So I’m not putting much stock in that.

The T-Wolves are 11-1 at home since March and deserve respect for handling the Los Angeles Lakers in five games.

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NBA SGP legs

Edwards 4+ threes (-136): Edwards went 0-for-11 from 3-point range in Minnesota’s first-round closeout game. You can look at that a couple of ways.

Pessimistically, you might say that that type of performance doesn’t warrant backing Edwards to cash this 3s milestone prop on Tuesday.

Optimistically, you might see upside in how many 3s he attempted despite the futility.

I reside in the latter camp. Edwards shot through the slump, and that gives me faith that he’s capable of operating with heavy volume regardless of the outcome.

Dating back to the regular season, Edwards has 4+ threes in 7 of his past 10 home games.

In four matchups vs. Golden State this year, Edwards shot 17-for-39 (43.6%), cashing this prop every time.

Curry 25+ points (-155): Curry put on two stellar performances in Minnesota earlier this season, putting up 31 points apiece while going 14-for-28 from beyond the arc.

He struggled most of the way in Golden State’s series-clinching win on Sunday before finding his rhythm late with a 14-point fourth quarter.

The Baby-Faced Assassin is 37 now, but he can still turn back the clock in any given game.

Since the 2023 postseason, Curry has 25-plus points in 14 of 20 games.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions made at 1:32 p.m. ET 05/05/2025.

Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions Game 1: Back Westbrook and Williams at +360

A star-studded Round 2 matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder kicks off on Monday.

The pregame narrative: The Oklahoma City Thunder have dismantled teams all season and are well-rested after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the opening round. Denver, meanwhile, is a heavy series underdog following a gruelling seven-game battle against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions on May 5, featuring Russell Westbrook and Jalen Williams.

Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Nuggets +15.5 | Westbrook over 8.5 rebounds and assists | Williams 5+ assists (+360)

Nuggets +15.5 (-250): OKC has been the best team in the league all season — full stop.

It won a league-best 68 games and posted a +12.7 net rating, which was the second-highest all-time behind the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.

That said, I can get behind giving the Nuggets this many points in the series opener. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the expected MVP, but Nikola Jokic is still the best player on the planet.

Jokic flashed his superhuman powers repeatedly against the Los Angeles Clippers, averaging a 24-point triple-double across seven games.

Denver covered this number in six of those matchups, as well as 15 of its last 16 since the regular season.

The Nuggets are also 3-1 against this line vs. OKC this season.

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NBA SGP legs

Westbrook over 8.5 rebounds and assists (-114): Westbrook built his legacy in Oklahoma City and now has a chance to stick it to his former team as a member of Denver’s supporting cast.

The high-flying point guard isn’t averaging triple-doubles anymore, but he still put up a respectable 4.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game this season.

Westbrook went 3-2 against this line in the opening round (excluding Game 3 where he left with an injury), logging double-digit rebounds/assists in Games 6 and 7.

But I’m most bullish on this play because of Westbrook’s success against OKC this year:

6.8 RPG
5.8 APG
10+ R/A in all four games

Williams 5+ assists (-159): Williams was dynamite against the Grizzlies in Round 1, averaging 23.3 PPG on 54.2% shooting.

He also chipped in with 5.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game, cashing this milestone bet in each contest. Williams can do it all and has a favourable matchup to excel as a passer this series.

Denver allowed the third-most assists per game during the regular season (28.8) and the fourth-most assists per game specifically to small forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Williams has hit this mark in four of his last five games against the Nuggets, logging eight-plus assists three times.

Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions made at 1:00 p.m. ET 05/05/2025.

Knicks vs. Celtics prop picks Game 1: Bet on Mikal Bridges, Derrick White in series opener

The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics meet for a marquee matchup in the second round.

The pregame narrative: Boston looks every bit capable of defending its title after dispatching the Orlando Magic in five games. New York, an underdog in this series and in Game 1, will need its best to advance to a conference final for the first time since 2000.

Check out my Knicks vs. Celtics prop picks featuring Mikal Bridges and Derrick White in Game 1 on May 5.

Knicks vs. Celtics prop picks

Best Bet: Bridges over 20.5 PRA (-125)

The Knicks took a big swing on acquiring Bridges last offseason for moments like this. After all, you don’t give up five first-round picks for a guy with the hopes of winning one playoff round.

Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson are New York’s top dogs, but Tom Thibodeau loves to give his entire starting five plenty of run.

Bridges averaged 38.7 minutes in the opening round, and he made great use of that playing time:

16.2 PPG
5.0 RPG
1.8 APG

The swingman cleared this line in four of six games against the Indiana Pacers, logging seven-plus rebounds and assists in each of the last four contests.

Bridges averaged 18.6 points, 3.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists (27.2 R/A) during the final 10 games of the regular season, clearing this line eight times.

That includes a game against the Celtics where he logged 14 points, four rebounds and four assists.

Boston is a tough matchup. It owned the 10th-best home defensive rating in the regular season and is currently second in the playoffs.

That’s baked into this line, though, and I can’t look past the amount of run Bridges will get on Monday.

Key stat: Bridges is 17-3 against this line in his last 20 games.

Game 1 prop prediction

White over 3.5 threes (+110): Joe Mazzulla’s offensive philosophy is built on taking a ton of 3-pointers.

Boston attempted a league-high 47.3 threes per game during the regular season. That’s five more than the second-place Golden State Warriors and nearly 14 more than the Knicks.

It might seem excessive, but why would the Celtics do anything else when they’re shooting a collective 36.9% from deep (eighth-best in the NBA)?

White is a big part of Boston’s deep-ball identity, averaging 3.5 makes on 9.1 attempts (38.3%) during the regular season.

The Knicks allowed opponents to shoot 36.4% from deep, which was tied for the ninth-highest mark in the NBA.

White has cleared this line in four straight games vs. New York, shooting a combined 19-for-35 in those contests (54.2%).

Knicks vs. Celtics prop picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET 05/05/2025.

Knicks vs. Celtics prop picks Game 1: Bet on Mikal Bridges, Derrick White in series opener

The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics meet for a marquee matchup in the second round.

The pregame narrative: Boston looks every bit capable of defending its title after dispatching the Orlando Magic in five games. New York, an underdog in this series and in Game 1, will need its best to advance to the conference final for the first time since 2000.

Check out my Knicks vs. Celtics prop picks featuring Mikal Bridges and Derrick White in Game 1 on May 5.

Knicks vs. Celtics prop picks

Best Bet: Bridges over 5.5 rebounds and assists (-139)

The Knicks took a big swing on acquiring Bridges last offseason for moments like this. After all, you don’t give up five first-round picks for a guy with the hopes of winning one playoff round.

Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson are New York’s top dogs, but Tom Thibodeau loves to give his entire starting five plenty of run.

Bridges averaged 38.7 minutes in the opening round, and he made great use of that playing time:

16.2 PPG
5.0 RPG
1.8 APG

The swingman cleared this line in four straight games to close out New York’s series against the Indiana Pacers, logging seven-plus rebounds and assists in each of those contests.

Bridges averaged 3.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists (8.6 R/A) during the final 10 games of the regular season, clearing this line eight times.

That includes a game against the Celtics where he logged four rebounds and four assists.

Boston is a tough matchup. It owned the 10th-best home defensive rating in the regular season and is currently second in the playoffs.

That’s baked into this line, though, and I can’t look past the amount of run Bridges will get on Monday.

Key stat: Bridges is 16-4 against this line in his last 20 games.

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Game 1 prop prediction

White over 3.5 threes (+117): Joe Mazzulla’s offensive philosophy is built on taking a ton of 3-pointers.

Boston attempted a league-high 47.3 threes per game during the regular season. That’s five more than the second-place Golden State Warriors and nearly 14 more than the Knicks.

It might seem excessive, but why would the Celtics do anything else when they’re shooting a collective 36.9% from deep (eighth-best in the NBA)?

White is a big part of Boston’s deep-ball identity, averaging 3.5 makes on 9.1 attempts (38.3%) during the regular season.

The Knicks allowed opponents to shoot 36.4% from deep, which was tied for the ninth-highest mark in the NBA.

White has cleared this line in four straight games vs. New York, shooting a combined 19-for-35 in those contests (54.2%).

Knicks vs. Celtics prop picks made at 1:28 p.m. ET 05/03/2025.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks Game 1: Bet on Jokic to shine, fade Holmgren

A battle between two MVP finalists begins on Monday night as Nikola Jokic‘s Denver Nuggets visit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: Denver only played two days ago, but its blowout win in Game 7 against the Los Angeles Clippers meant that stars like Jokic didn’t need to shoulder a full workload. Jokic has been active as a rebounder and passer against the Thunder all season.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks featuring Chet Holmgren in Game 1 on May 5.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic over 22.5 rebounds and assists (-112)

One of the biggest knocks on last year’s top-seeded Thunder was their lack of frontcourt size. They addressed that concern in the offseason by bringing in Isaiah Hartenstein (7 feet, 255 pounds), and he’s been solid.

But Jokic has about 30 pounds on Hartenstein, and when push comes to shove — possibly in a literal sense — I’ll still bank on the three-time MVP having his way around the rim.

Let’s look at this prop market by splitting it into two, starting with rebounds.

The Thunder allowed the eighth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (15.28), per Betting Pros.

Jokic had 12+ rebounds in all four games vs. OKC this year.

As for passing, the Thunder allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season. But Jokic still averaged 11.5 assists in his four matchups against the Thunder.

And in the playoffs, Jokic has been among the most active passers in the league.

On a per-game basis, he ranks second in the postseason in assists (10.1), potential assists (18.1), and passes made (75.3).

Jokic averaged 27.3 RA against the Thunder this year, going 3-1 against this line. He had exactly 22 rebounds/assists in the outlier.

Key stat: During the regular season, Jokic averaged 22.9 RA in 70 matchups.

Game 1 prop prediction

Holmgren under 8.5 rebounds (-138): Fading a 7-foot-1 player on a rebound line like this might seem odd. But Holmgren is far from a traditional big.

At just 213 pounds, he’s not known to muscle people around in the paint. Sure, he’s got plenty of length, but he’s also a capable 3-point shooter who spends plenty of time on the perimeter.

Holmgren was 11-for-26 (42.3%) from deep in the first round of the playoffs. As a rebounder, he went 2-2 against this line but had just 10 total boards in the final two games.

During the regular season, Holmgren averaged 8.0 rebounds and went under this number in 18 of 32 games (56.3%). That includes a pair of home games against Denver.

If Hartenstein is matched up with Jokic most of the time, as I expect, this should be a worthwhile fade.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET 05/05/2025.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks Game 1: Bet on Jokic to shine, fade Holmgren

A battle between two MVP finalists begins on Monday night as Nikola Jokic‘s Denver Nuggets visit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: Denver only played two days ago, but its blowout win in Game 7 against the Los Angeles Clippers meant that stars like Jokic didn’t need to shoulder a full workload. Jokic has been active as a rebounder and passer against the Thunder all season.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks featuring Chet Holmgren in Game 1 on May 5.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic over 22.5 rebounds and assists (-118)

One of the biggest knocks on last year’s top-seeded Thunder was their lack of frontcourt size. They addressed that concern in the offseason by bringing in Isaiah Hartenstein (7 feet, 255 pounds), and he’s been solid.

But Jokic has about 30 pounds on Hartenstein, and when push comes to shove — possibly in a literal sense — I’ll still bank on the three-time MVP having his way around the rim.

Let’s look at this prop market by splitting it into two, starting with rebounds.

The Thunder allowed the eighth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (15.28), per Betting Pros.

Jokic had 12+ rebounds in all four games vs. OKC this year.

As for passing, the Thunder allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season. But Jokic still averaged 11.5 assists in his four matchups against the Thunder.

And in the playoffs, Jokic has been among the most active passers in the league.

On a per-game basis, he ranks second in the postseason in assists (10.1), potential assists (18.1), and passes made (75.3).

Jokic averaged 27.3 RA against the Thunder this year, going 3-1 against this line. He had exactly 22 rebounds/assists in the outlier.

Key stat: During the regular season, Jokic averaged 22.9 RA in 70 matchups.

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Game 1 prop prediction

Holmgren under 8.5 rebounds (-143): Fading a 7-foot-1 player on a rebound line like this might seem odd. But Holmgren is far from a traditional big.

At just 213 pounds, he’s not known to muscle people around in the paint. Sure, he’s got plenty of length, but he’s also a capable 3-point shooter who spends plenty of time on the perimeter.

Holmgren was 11-for-26 (42.3%) from deep in the first round of the playoffs. As a rebounder, he went 2-2 against this line but had just 10 total boards in the final two games.

During the regular season, Holmgren averaged 8.0 rebounds and went under this number in 18 of 32 games (56.3%). That includes a pair of home games against Denver.

If Hartenstein is matched up with Jokic most of the time, as I expect, this should be a worthwhile fade.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 9:08 a.m. ET 05/05/2025.

Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions Game 1: Back Nembhard and Mobley at +300

Round 2 of the NBA playoffs begins on Sunday when the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Both teams look to stay hot after dominating their opening-round opponents. The Pacers toppled the Milwaukee Bucks in five but are an 8.5-point underdog in Game 1 against the No. 1 seed Cavaliers, which just swept the Miami Heat.

Andrew Nembhard and Evan Mobley feature in my Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions on May 4.

Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions

Parlay: Pacers +10.5 | Nembhard 10+ points | Mobley over 17.5 points (+290)

Pacers +10.5 (-165): Cleveland has been the best in the conference by a long shot this season, but that doesn’t mean it’ll coast past Indiana.

The Pacers just toppled the Giannis Antetokounmpo-led Bucks and have sneakily been one of the league’s best teams since the all-star break:

24-10 record (tied third-most in NBA)
+5.8 net rating (seventh-best in NBA)

Over that same span, Cleveland is 24-8 with a +10.3 net rating. That’s better, but is it 10.5 points better? I’m not so sure.

Indiana is 3-1 against Cleveland this year and covered this number in the outlying loss. The Pacers have covered this number in 21 of their last 24 games.

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NBA SGP legs

Nembhard 10+ points (-225): Tyrese Haliburton runs Indiana’s offence, but I won’t try and guess if he wants to shoot tonight.

There are games where Haliburton is content as a facilitator, and that can make taking his point and 3-point props risky. So instead, I’ll turn to his backcourt partner, Nembhard, who was money against the Bucks in Round 1:

15.0 PPG
49.2 FG%
50.0 3PT%
32.2 MPG

Nembhard reached the 15-point milestone in four of five games, so he should be live to clear this teased-down number on Sunday.

The Canadian is 2-2 against this line vs. Cleveland this year, but is taking 3.5 more shots per game in the playoffs than regular season.

Mobley over 17.5 points (-125): Indiana’s defence improved this season, but its one big weakness has been in the mid-range.

The Pacers allowed opponents to shoot 45.1% from that area of the court, which ranked 23rd in the league, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Mobley does a fair amount of damage from that area and is coming off a hyper-efficient series against the Heat, where he shot 59.5% from the field and 47.1% from deep.

The power forward scored 22 and 16 points against Indiana this year, shooting above 60.0% in each game.

Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions made at 10:52 a.m. ET 05/04/2025.