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NBA playoff prop bets May 12: Without Curry, bet on Hield and Kuminga to shine

Steph Curry’s injury absence for the Golden State Warriors has me targeting a pair of his teammates on Monday’s prop market.

The pregame narrative: Buddy Hield and Jonathan Kuminga have both stepped up and stuffed the stat sheet in Curry’s absence. Can they do it again and try to help the Warriors even their second-round series?

Check out my NBA prop bets for Monday, May 12, which also include a prediction on Derrick White.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: White over 16.5 points (-106)

After blowing a 20-point lead in back-to-back games, everything finally came together — and didn’t fall apart — for the Boston Celtics in Game 3.

But amid all the turbulence of this second-round series, White has been a rock. He’s the guy I trust most for Boston right now, and this points prop should remain well within his reach.

White is 6-2 against this line in the postseason, averaging 17.8 PPG.

Aside from the Celtics’ 31-point win to close out their first-round series, White has seen an impressively steady diet of scoring opportunities. Excluding that blowout win, the guard has attempted 6+ threes and 10+ shots in all seven games.

If we exclude the closeout win against Orlando, White’s 2025 postseason averages look like this:

38.7 minutes
19.8 PPG
14.6 FGA
9.9 3PA

It’s obviously convenient for me to wipe his worst game from the record, but keep in mind that the Knicks are expected to play much tighter games against the Celtics than the Magic could.

And close games mean more opportunities for White.

After averaging a career-high 16.4 PPG during the regular season, White has carried his productivity forward into the most important time of year.

The Knicks have seen plenty of strong performances from White already, and I’ll bet they get another one in Game 4.

Key stat: In seven games against the Knicks this season, White is 6-1 against this line while averaging 18.6 PPG.

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Best NBA picks

Hield over 13.5 points (-121): Hield has spent most of his nine-year NBA career out of the spotlight, as a 3-point specialist more than anything else.

He has never been an all-star, but with Curry (hamstring) currently sidelined for the Warriors, Hield will have to play at an all-star-calibre clip to keep Golden State in contention.

Hield has cleared this line in four straight games, thanks in large part to 22-of-36 (61.1%) shooting from 3-point range.

In 14 games without Curry this season, Hield is 9-5 against this line and averaging 13.9 PPG.

Coming off four straight games with 11-plus shots and eight-plus attempted 3s, I’m buying in on Hield’s volume with the shorthanded Warriors.

Kuminga over 23.5 points/rebounds (-110): Welcome back to the lineup, Kuminga.

Trade rumours swirled earlier this postseason for Kuminga, who sat out four of Golden State’s first eight games despite being healthy.

With Curry injured, the Warriors had no choice but to see what Kuminga could offer with some extended run.

In Games 2 and 3, he totalled 48 points on 65.5% shooting and added 11 rebounds. Just as importantly, Kuminga played 25-plus minutes in both games.

Without Curry this season, the 6-foot-8 forward averaged 20.3 PPG and 4.4 rebounds in 12 matchups.

Kuminga provides more bounce as a rebounder than Draymond Green, and he’s a confident enough scorer to create his own shot consistently.

To me, the upside is high for a player who has new life in what might be his last chance to convince Golden State brass to keep him.

NBA prop picks made at 3:55 p.m. ET on 05/11/2025.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers SGP predictions Game 4: Bet on Mitchell and Mobley to carry Cleveland’s offence

The Cleveland Cavaliers are at full strength, looking to even up their series with the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: The Cavs were without key pieces for the first couple of games of this second-round matchup and went down 2-0 in the process. With the starting five healthy, Cleveland handily won Game 3 and is the favourite to even things up on the road.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Pacers SGP predictions for May 11, featuring Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions

Parlay: Cavaliers ML | Mobley over 28.5 points and rebounds | Mitchell 3+ threes (+290)

Cavaliers ML (-215): Game 3 was the first time in this series that the Cavaliers had a healthy starting five, and they looked like the regular season team that won 64 games.

Darius Garland missed the first two contests while Evan Mobley missed Game 2. With both available on Friday, Cleveland won 126-104.

That effort was fuelled by a 34-13 second quarter that gave Cleveland a lead it never lost.

After losing both home games, that was exactly the momentum shift the Cavs needed to get back into this series.

Despite being down 2-1, the Cavs have been one of the better teams in these playoffs overall.

They have the league’s best offensive rating (127.4). The Oklahoma City Thunder rank second (118.2).

They have the fourth-best defensive rating (107.7).

Cleveland ranks better than Indiana in both of those categories and is the more talented team when at full strength.

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NBA SGP legs

Mobley over 28.5 points and rebounds (-108): Mobley has dominated down low when available in this series:

Game 1: 20 points, 10 rebounds
Game 3: 18 points, 13 rebounds

That’s because this is a great matchup for the power forward.

Of any team remaining in the playoffs, the Pacers allowed the most points per game to the position this season (23.93), per Fantasy Pros.

Indiana also conceded the second-most rebounds per game by any team during the regular season (11.28).

Mobley has shot a combined 15-for-25 (60.0%) through his two games and should continue to shine for the Cavs.

Mitchell 3+ threes (-220): Mitchell took a step back this year, taking the fewest shots per game (18.6) since he was a rookie.

That continued in the first round since Cleveland comfortably handled the Miami Heat, but now Mitchell is shouldering a heavier offensive load, and the results look like this:

Game 1: 33 points, 13-for-30 from the field (1-for-11 from 3)

Game 2: 48 points, 15-for-30 from the field (1-for-7 from 3)

Game 3: 43 points, 14-for-29 from the field (5-for-13 from 3)

He hasn’t been an efficient 3-point shooter to this point, but that volume is extremely encouraging.

Plus, he’s coming off his best shooting game of the series in Indiana and should continue to see a hefty number of shot attempts with the Cavaliers needing another win.

Mitchell shot 36.8% from deep during the regular season.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions made at 11:30 a.m. ET 05/11/2025.

Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions Game 4: Look for Jalen Williams, Aaron Gordon to make noise on offence

The Denver Nuggets can put the Oklahoma City Thunder on the brink of elimination Sunday afternoon when they meet for Game 4 at Ball Arena.

The pregame narrative: After dropping Game 3 in overtime, OKC is favoured to win on the road today and level things up. Neither team’s superstars were at their best last time out, but secondary contributors like Aaron Gordon and Jalen Williams stepped up.

Check out my Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for May 11, featuring Gordon, Williams and Russell Westbrook.

Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions

Parlay: Gordon 15+ points | Williams 2+ threes | Westbrook under 3.5 rebounds (+350)

Gordon 15+ points (-180): Gordon has been a productive contributor for the Nuggets in the past, and he has an NBA Finals ring to show for it.

But this postseason, he’s really upped his game as a consistent scoring threat.

14+ points in 9 of 10 games
11+ field-goal attempts in 9 of 10 games
1+ made 3s in 9 of 10 games

Gordon has been on fire so far in this series from 3-point range, shooting 9-for-15 (60.0%). He’s also a perfect 11-for-11 from the free-throw line.

The blowout nature of Game 2’s loss kept Gordon below this scoring milestone. But he’s still averaging 18.6 PPG for the series and has 20-plus points in three of his past four.

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NBA SGP legs

Williams 2+ threes (-155): After canning 42.7% of his 3-point attempts a season ago, Williams started taking more 3s this year. His efficiency has taken a hit, but the volume typically carries him to this milestone.

Williams averages 1.8 made 3s on 36.5% shooting during the regular season.

Though he’s only shooting 27.5% from deep so far in the playoffs, he has 2+ triples in 5 of 7 games.

In Game 3, Williams went 3-for-7 from deep and had a game-high 32 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will always be the No. 1 option for OKC’s offence, but J-Dub is the clear No. 2.

An uptick in efficiency should make this an easy cash, but I like Williams’ chances either way.

He’s 5-2 against this milestone prop when facing the Nuggets this year.

Westbrook under 3.5 rebounds (-120): Of Denver’s seven rotation players last game, six finished with at least four rebounds.

Westbrook was the odd man out.

In fact, he only has four total rebounds in the series, cashing this under in all three games.

OKC has a pair of 7-footers, plus an elite rebounding guard in Gilgeous-Alexander. Denver has 280-pound Nikola Jokic, plus four other players averaging north of 4.5 RPG this series.

Coming off the bench, and with so many capable rebounders guaranteed to be on the court at all times, Westbrook looks worthy of a fade in this market again.

Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions made at 9:10 a.m. ET 05/11/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors SGP predictions Game 3: Back Butler and DiVincenzo on Sunday

The Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves meet for Game 3 on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota looks to build off its blowout win, and is favoured to do so against the Steph Curry-less Warriors. The Timberwolves have won seven of their last 10 road games, including two of three in Round 1.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Warriors SGP predictions for May 10, featuring Jimmy Butler and Donte DiVincenzo.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions

Parlay: Under 210.5 points | Butler 6+ assists | DiVincenzo 2+ threes (+270)

Under 210.5 points (-286): Golden State has been willing to play in rock fights this postseason, and now Steve Kerr’s hand is forced without Curry.

The Warriors had the seventh-best defensive rating during the regular season and should lean on that facet of their game rather than getting into a shootout with the Anthony Edwards-led T-Wolves.

Unders are 6-3 against this number in Golden State’s playoff games, including each of the last three.

Minnesota has the fourth-highest under rate on the road this season (54.6%).

The T-Wolves and Warriors both rank in the bottom-half of playoff teams in terms of pace (possessions per 48 minutes) and true shooting percentage, as well.

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NBA SGP legs

Butler 6+ assists (-157): Butler has been asked to do it all before, and led the Miami Heat to multiple finals appearances as the main man.

He averaged a healthy 5.9 assists in his 2023 finals run and is right around that number again this postseason.

Excluding Game 2 against the Houston Rockets, where he exited after eight minutes with an injury, Butler is putting up 5.8 APG and is 5-2 vs. this line.

He’s first on the Warriors in “potential assists” per game (10.3). NBA.com categorizes that as a pass leading directly to a shot.

DiVincenzo 2+ threes (-235): DiVincenzo is heaving up bricks from beyond-the-arc right now, but I still think he’s worth backing at this number.

The first-year Timberwolf is shooting 21.7% from deep this postseason on 6.6 attempts per game.

However, he shot 39.7% during the regular season and went 3-for-8 in Game 2. I’m hoping that positive result is what DiVincenzo needs to break out of a shooting slump.

He had cleared this mark in three straight games vs. Golden State before the playoffs, shooting a combined 11-for-26 from deep (42.0%).

Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions made at 1:00 p.m. ET 05/10/2025.

Celtics vs. Knicks SGP predictions Game 3: Back Anunoby and White in +320 wager

This Eastern Conference semifinal shifts to the basketball Mecca, Madison Square Garden, for Game 3.

The pregame narrative: The New York Knicks can put a 3-0 stranglehold on the Boston Celtics after stealing a pair of wins on the road. Boston is a sizeable favourite, though, after posting a 33-8 record away from home this year.

Check out my Celtics vs. Knicks SGP predictions for Game 3 on May 10, featuring Derrick White and OG Anunoby.

Celtics vs. Knicks predictions

Parlay: Celtics moneyline | White 4+ threes | Anunoby 15+ points (+320)

Celtics moneyline (-235): I refuse to believe Boston will go out this sad.

The Celtics blew a pair of 20-point leads at home and now find themselves in a tough situation at the Garden. But championship-calibre teams fight back, and I expect Joe Mazzulla to rally the troops.

You have to have a 20-point lead to blow it, and Boston put itself in a favourable situation in back-to-back games.

The Celtics shot below 37.0% from the field in each game and are shooting 25.0% from deep this series. That’s unsustainable behaviour for a group this talented, which had the 11th-best 3-point rate (36.6%) during the regular season.

As mentioned, Boston went 33-8 on the road (2-0 vs. NYK). Its +9.5 road net rating was the second-best in the NBA.

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NBA SGP legs

White 4+ threes (-130): If Boston wants to turn around its 3-point problems, it’ll start with White, who is leading the team in 3-point makes (3.1) and attempts (9.4) per game this postseason.

He’s taken double-digit 3s in both games against the Knicks, going 5-for-16 in the series opener and 3-for-11 on Wednesday.

I expect that type of volume to continue.

White had torched the Knicks during the regular season, going 4-0 against this line while shooting 54.3% from deep.

Anunoby 15+ points (-157): Anunoby balled out in the series opener, scoring 29 points on 10-of-20 shooting. He took a back seat in Game 2, with just five points (2-of-9 shooting), but this seems like a good spot for him to rebound.

The former Toronto Raptor is averaging 17.3 PPG this postseason, reaching the milestone in five of eight games.

He also entered the postseason on a roll, clearing this mark in 11 of 12 games while averaging 25.3 points.

Boston defends every position well, but will likely focus on slowing down Jalen Brunson, which should lead to some open looks for Anunoby.

Knicks vs. Celtics predictions made at 9:30 a.m. ET 05/10/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors prop picks Game 3: Back Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle on combo markets

This Western Conference showdown shifts to San Francisco on Saturday with the series knotted at 1-1.

The pregame narrative: Without Steph Curry, the Golden State Warriors were dismantled in Game 2. Curry remains out, making the Minnesota Timberwolves a road favourite for the first time this postseason.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 3 prop picks for May 10, featuring plays on Julius Randle, Anthony Edwards and Brandin Podziemski.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best bet: Randle over 25.5 points/rebounds (-118)

Randle is a no-brainer play for me at this line.

I recommended him on this prop at a 27.5 line in Game 1, but he fell short thanks to his lowest-rebounding performance of the playoffs.

He followed that up with 24 points and seven rebounds in Game 2.

Randle’s 24 points led all scorers, and he was pivotal in helping the Timberwolves build an early lead that led to a 24-point win.

The power forward also had to pick up some slack as Edwards played through an ankle injury and was held under 25 points for the third consecutive game.

Randle’s rebounding is down in the playoffs, but his scoring is up. He has upside on the glass, though, making this a light line for me.

The veteran has shown better rebounding in the past, and he’ll generally be among the tallest players on the court against Golden State’s small-ball lineups.

The 30-year-old averaged 7.1 rebounds in the regular season.

Randle averaged 8.3 RPG in four contests against the Warriors in the regular season.

He averaged at least 9.0 RPG in the five seasons prior.

Key stat: Randle is averaging 22.1 points and 5.1 rebounds in the postseason.

Anthony Edwards Game 3 prop bets

Edwards over 12.5 rebounds/assists (-130): Edwards has been way more active on the glass this postseason, and he’s generally been distributing more.

The Minnesota star averaged 5.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists in the regular season.

He’s been a menace on the boards throughout the playoffs, averaging 9.3 rebounds in seven games

The 23-year-old is adding 5.4 assists, getting him well past this number on a nightly basis.

Edwards is 6-1 vs. this line.

If he’s limited offensively again because of his ankle or the defence being thrown his way, I like his chances of smashing this line once again.

Game 3 prop prediction

Podziemski over 21.5 points/rebounds/assists (-130): If you base this pick solely on Podziemski’s playoff numbers and Minnesota’s defensive stats, you probably aren’t going near it.

But factor in the 22-year-old’s production without Curry, and the outlook looks much rosier.

Podziemski is 3-6 vs. this line in the playoffs, and the Timberwolves rank third in defensive rating after finishing sixth in the regular season.

But Podziemski cleared it in Game 2 — Golden State’s first full game of the postseason without Curry.

The Warriors need more than Jimmy Butler and a streaky Buddy Hield to make this a series, and Podziemski is going to have to be one of the players who delivers.

Sans Curry, he has done just that this season (over 10 games):

14.4 points
6.2 rebounds
4.6 assists

The 6-foot-4 guard should see at least 30 minutes in Game 3, and the 37.8% career 3-point shooter should unleash a handful of shots from deep.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 2:30 p.m. ET 05/09/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors prop picks Game 3: Back Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle on combo markets

This Western Conference showdown shifts to San Francisco on Saturday with the series knotted at 1-1.

The pregame narrative: Without Steph Curry, the Golden State Warriors were dismantled in Game 2. Curry remains out, making the Minnesota Timberwolves a road favourite for the first time this postseason.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 3 prop picks for May 10, featuring plays on Julius Randle, Anthony Edwards and Brandin Podziemski.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best bet: Randle over 24.5 points/rebounds (-125)

Randle is a no-brainer play for me at this line.

I recommended him on this prop at a 27.5 line in Game 1, but he fell short thanks to his lowest-rebounding performance of the playoffs.

He followed that up with 24 points and seven rebounds in Game 2.

Randle’s 24 points led all scorers, and he was pivotal in helping the Timberwolves build an early lead that led to a 24-point win.

The power forward also had to pick up some slack as Edwards played through an ankle injury and was held under 25 points for the third consecutive game.

Randle’s rebounding is down in the playoffs, but his scoring is up. He has upside on the glass, though, making this a light line for me.

The veteran has shown better rebounding in the past, and he’ll generally be among the tallest players on the court against Golden State’s small-ball lineups.

The 30-year-old averaged 7.1 rebounds in the regular season.

Randle averaged 8.3 RPG in four contests against the Warriors in the regular season.

He averaged at least 9.0 RPG in the five seasons prior.

Key stat: Randle is averaging 22.1 points and 5.1 rebounds in the postseason.

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Anthony Edwards Game 3 prop bets

Edwards over 12.5 rebounds/assists (-120): Edwards has been way more active on the glass this postseason, and he’s generally been distributing more.

The Minnesota star averaged 5.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists in the regular season.

He’s been a menace on the boards throughout the playoffs, averaging 9.3 rebounds in seven games

The 23-year-old is adding 5.4 assists, getting him well past this number on a nightly basis.

Edwards is 6-1 vs. this line.

If he’s limited offensively again because of his ankle or the defence being thrown his way, I like his chances of smashing this line once again.

Edwards to double-double (+225): Sticking with Edwards, he’s not generally a guy you look at to secure a double-double.

He had seven during the regular season, but his newfound rebounding efforts make this a worthy play for me.

Edwards is averaging a double-double over his last four games, notching two of them. He had nine rebounds each time he fell short.

The shooting guard has even flirted with double-digit assists, handing out eight twice and nine once during the Los Angeles Lakers series.

We know the points are a given on this prop. And Edwards should be staring down heavy minutes, providing him with more opportunity to crash the glass.

Edwards has played 40-plus minutes five times in the playoffs.

Game 3 prop prediction

Podziemski over 22.5 points/rebounds/assists (-109): If you base this pick solely on Podziemski’s playoff numbers and Minnesota’s defensive stats, you probably aren’t going near it.

But factor in the 22-year-old’s production without Curry, and the outlook looks much rosier.

Podziemski is 3-6 vs. this line in the playoffs, and the Timberwolves rank third in defensive rating after finishing sixth in the regular season.

But Podziemski cleared it in Game 2 — Golden State’s first full game of the postseason without Curry.

The Warriors need more than Jimmy Butler and a streaky Buddy Hield to make this a series, and Podziemski is going to have to be one of the players who delivers.

Sans Curry, he has done just that this season (over 10 games):

14.4 points
6.2 rebounds
4.6 assists

The 6-foot-4 guard should see at least 30 minutes in Game 3, and the 37.8% career 3-point shooter should unleash a handful of shots from deep.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 2:30 p.m. ET 05/09/2025.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers prop picks Game 3: Back Evan Mobley and Myles Turner on Friday

The No. 1-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers have their backs against the wall as they head to Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday to take on the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Indiana won both games on the road behind some Tyrese Haliburton heroics, and now has a chance to put Cleveland in a back-breaking 3-0 hole. Evan Mobley and Darius Garland are both questionable for the Cavs after missing Game 2.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Pacers prop picks for May 9, featuring Mobley and Myles Turner.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers prop picks

Best bet: Turner over 22.5 points and rebounds (-113)

Turner has cleared this line in four straight games, smashing it in three of them:

Game 2 vs. CLE: 23 points, 8 rebounds
Game 1 vs. CLE: 13 points, 11 rebounds
Game 5 vs. MIL: 21 points, 9 rebounds
Game 4 vs. MIL: 23 points, 5 rebounds

Indiana’s centre is getting big minutes (32.2 in the playoffs) and has some stark home/away splits.

He averaged 23.9 points and rebounds at home during the regular season and 20.6 on the road.

Jarrett Allen is a capable rebounder, but the 6-foot-11, 250-pound Turner is by far the biggest player on the court for either team.

He should continue to do damage on the glass, and is shooting a respectable 50.6% this postseason (37.5% from 3).

Key stat: Turner is averaging 20.0 points and 8.3 rebounds in his last four games.

Game 3 prop prediction

Mobley over 16.5 points (-130): I’m taking a swing on Mobley, who missed Game 2 with an ankle injury.

There’s optimism that the Cavaliers’ big man will suit up tonight, according to Joe Vardon of The Athletic, but this is obviously something to monitor heading into game time.

One thing I do know is that when Mobley’s on the floor, he’s been effective:

16.3 PPG
59.5% shooting (47.1% from 3)
17+ points in 4 of 5 games

He has scored 20 points twice this postseason, including Game 1 against the Pacers. Indiana struggles to defend the mid-range, and that’s a spot Mobley can cook in.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers prop picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET 05/09/2025.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers SGP predictions Game 3: Back Evan Mobley and Myles Tuner at +300

The No. 1-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers have their backs against the wall as they head to Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday to take on the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Indiana won both games on the road behind some Tyrese Haliburton heroics, and now has a chance to put Cleveland in a back-breaking 3-0 hole. Evan Mobley and Darius Garland are both questionable for the Cavs after missing Game 2.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Pacers SGP predictions for May 9, featuring Mobley and Myles Turner.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions

Parlay: Pacers +10.5 | Turner over 23.5 points and rebounds | Mobley over 16.5 points (+300)

Pacers +10.5 (-385): I think it’s time we put some respect on the Pacers’ name.

Indiana made light work of the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, and now has the conference’s top seed on the ropes. And while it might seem like a surprise, it shouldn’t be.

Rick Carlisle’s squad was one of the league’s best teams following the all-star break (NBA ranks in parentheses):

20-9 record (fifth)
+5.6 net rating (seventh)
111.5 defensive rating (eighth)

In that same span, Cleveland went 20-8 with a +6.8 net rating. I can’t see the Cavs putting together a blowout win given that they’re banged up and on the road.

Indiana is 5-1 straight up against Cleveland this year, covering this line in the only loss.

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NBA SGP legs

Turner over 23.5 points and rebounds (-117): Turner has cleared this line in four straight games, smashing it in three of them:

Game 2 vs. CLE: 23 points, 8 rebounds
Game 1 vs. CLE: 13 points, 11 rebounds
Game 5 vs. MIL: 21 points, 9 rebounds
Game 4 vs. MIL: 23 points, 5 rebounds

Indiana’s centre is getting big minutes (32.2 in the playoffs) and has some stark home/away splits.

He averaged 23.9 points and rebounds at home during the regular season and 20.6 on the road.

Jarrett Allen is a capable rebounder, but the 6-foot-11, 250-pound Turner is by far the biggest player on the court for either team.

He should continue to do damage on the glass, and is shooting a respectable 50.6% this postseason (37.5% from 3).

Mobley over 16.5 points (-132): I’m taking a swing on Mobley, who missed Game 2 with an ankle injury.

There’s optimism that the Cavaliers’ big man will suit up tonight, according to Joe Vardon of The Athletic, but this is obviously something to monitor heading into game time.

One thing I do know is that when Mobley’s on the floor, he’s been effective:

16.3 PPG
59.5% shooting (47.1% from 3)
17+ points in 4 of 5 games

He has scored 20 points twice this postseason, including Game 1 against the Pacers. Indiana struggles to defend the mid-range, and that’s a spot Mobley can cook in.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions made at 10:30 a.m. ET 05/09/2025.

Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions Game 3: Back OKC to win, Holmgren in +300 ticket

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets’ Western Conference series shifts to the Mile High City on Friday.

The pregame narrative: OKC is favoured to win on the road tonight after a dominant 43-point blowout victory in Game 2. Denver has a 17-5 record at Ball Arena over the last three postseasons and will need to be at its best to retake the series lead.

Check out my Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for May 9, featuring Chet Holmgren and Jamal Murray.

Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions

Parlay: Thunder ML | Holmgren 2+ threes | Murray 15+ points (+300)

Thunder ML (-220): OKC threw away Game 1 with an uncharacteristic fourth-quarter choke at home. But the Thunder reminded everyone why they’re the title favourites in Game 2, scoring a playoff-best 149 points.

They scored an NBA playoff-record 87 first-half points, posted a collective 50-40-90 shooting line, and had eight players log double-digit points. It was a true beatdown.

OKC was 23-14-2 ATS as a road favourite this year (second-best among NBA teams with more than 15 games as a road favourite), winning 32 of those games outright.

The Thunder posted a +12.7 net rating in the regular season, the second-highest of all time behind the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, and have a +20.1 net rating in the playoffs.

Denver is a tough out at home, especially in the playoffs. But OKC is simply on a different level.

I think this is a great way to start any SGP for Friday night.

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NBA SGP legs

Holmgren 2+ threes (+116): Holmgren did his part in Wednesday’s blowout, contributing 15 points and 11 rebounds in 26 minutes of play.

The lanky power forward also went 2-for-3 from deep, and is now shooting a respectable 40.6% from beyond the arc this postseason.

He had hit three-plus 3s in each of his first three games against the Memphis Grizzlies before going on a two-game dry spell. Overall, he’s 4-2 against this line in the playoffs.

Denver should be the right opponent for him to keep firing from beyond the arc.

The Nuggets allowed the 11th-most 3s per game (13.9) at the eighth-highest clip (36.4%) this season.

Murray 15+ points (-375): Murray fell just short of this milestone in Game 2, logging 14 points on nine shots. That said, he’s been reliable against this mark overall.

22.9 PPG in playoffs
15+ points in 7 of 8 games
20+ points in 6 of 8 games

The Thunder are a nightmare matchup defensively, but Murray managed to clear this line in both games against them during the regular season — that includes a 34-point outing in OKC

He averaged 19.5 FGA in those games, and a return to that type of volume would put this leg in a really good spot.

Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions made at 9:00 a.m. ET 05/09/2025.