Category: NBA

A back-and-forth series between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will be decided on Sunday afternoon in a Game 7 tilt at Paycom Center.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic dropped 44 points in a losing effort the last time his Nuggets played at OKC, but a home win on Thursday kept the series going. The Thunder are 8.5-point favourites on Sunday and -110 favourites to win the NBA Finals.

I’m fading Jokic while backing Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams in my Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks for Game 7 on May 18.

Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks

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Best Bet: Jokic under 8.5 assists (-154)

Was my first instinct to fade Jokic? Absolutely not, but this market is calling out to me.

• Despite being the Nuggets’ leader in assists this series, Jokic has gone under 8.5 assists in all six games.

• He has cashed this under in eight straight playoff games dating back to the first round.

• Jokic has gone under 8.5 assists in seven straight games vs. OKC (since March).

• OKC allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season (24.6). They’ve only allowed 20.7 APG in the playoffs.

This isn’t the same Denver team that won the NBA Finals two years ago. Sure, the headliners of Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are still in place, but there are fewer reliable scorers around them.

That explains why Jokic has set career-highs in field-goal attempts, free-throw attempts, 3-point attempts and points this season.

Denver has needed him to create more of his own offence.

In a do-or-die Game 7, who better for the Nuggets to run their offence through than a three-time MVP?

Jokic should still have at least a handful of assists, but his passing volume hasn’t risen to a level where he should be clearing this mark.

According to NBA.com, Jokic is averaging 14.7 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot) this series.

At that volume, he’d need his teammates to shoot north of 60.0% for over 8.5 assists to cash.

Key stat: Jokic has gone under 8.5 assists in 14 of 25 playoff games since the start of the 2024 postseason.

Game 7 prop predictions

Holmgren over 9.5 rebounds (-118): OKC brought in Isaiah Hartenstein this offseason for some much-needed size, but he’s not the only 7-footer in the rotation.

Holmgren, listed at 7-foot-1, has been hauling in plenty of boards this postseason, too.

• He’s averaging a team-high 10.8 rebounds this series, going 4-2 vs. this milestone.

• Holmgren has averaged 10.1 RPG in 10 matchups vs. Denver this season.

In Game 1 against Denver, Holmgren fouled out with just six rebounds in 28 minutes. But he has 11-plus rebounds in four of five games since, and no more than three fouls in any of those games.

As long as Holmgren stays disciplined, I like his chances of cashing this bet.

Williams over 4.5 assists (-143): Williams is really going through it right now as a shooter, posting a 33.7 FG% this series.

He’s also coming off his worst game in the scoring department (six points on 3-of-16 shooting).

But Williams is also coming off his best game as a passer. He dished 10 assists for the Thunder, marking the fourth time in five games that he’s cleared this mark.

So far in the playoffs, Williams is averaging 5.6 assists and has cashed this bet in seven of 10 games.

He’s also 7-2 against this prop in his past nine matchups against the Nuggets, averaging 6.4 assists in that span.

It’d make sense for J-Dub to take on more of a facilitating role in Game 7, given how poor the shooting numbers have been. With that in mind, this is a perfectly attainable number for him to hit.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 2:48 p.m. ET 05/17/2025.

Back home for Game 6, the New York Knicks look to close out their second-round series against the Boston Celtics.

The pregame narrative: Jalen Brunson has been a bit up-and-down as a scorer in this series, but his assist totals have remained rather steady. His Knicks are 2.5-point favourites to knock out the defending champions.

Check out my Celtics vs. Knicks prop picks featuring Brunson and Derrick White in Game 6 on May 16.

Celtics vs. Knicks prop picks

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Best Bet: White over 20.5 points (-120)

Needing a win at home to keep their season alive, the Celtics turned their offence over to White and let him cook.

The result? A 34-point explosion that featured 7-of-13 shooting from 3-point range.

The Celtics are committed to shooting a ton of 3s, and White is their top option out there. He’s attempted 57 threes through five games in this series and seems like a lock for double-digit shot attempts from outside again — especially with Jayson Tatum sidelined.

White wasn’t just a menace on the perimeter in Game 5, though. He also went 9-for-11 from the free-throw line.

The combo guard has now faced the Knicks nine times this season. He’s averaging 20.8 PPG while scoring 17-plus points in eight of nine.

Tatum’s absence makes a significant difference, as it directly opens the door for White to get more shots up. We saw that in Game 5, and I’m counting on the same story playing out Friday.

Key stat: Since March, White has averaged 23.3 PPG in seven games without Tatum. He’s shooting 42.0% from 3-point range on 11.6 attempts per game in those matchups.

Game 6 prop prediction

Brunson over 6.5 assists (-143): Boston has allowed the fewest assists per game during the playoffs after allowing the third-fewest during the regular season. So why do I like this over for Brunson?

Well, clearing a 6.5-assist total just doesn’t seem like a huge ask for a guy who’s clearly his team’s No. 1 facilitator.

• Brunson leads the Knicks in assists (7.8/game) and potential assists (12.9/game) during the postseason.

• He has 5+ assists in all 11 playoff games … and 7+ assists in 9 of 11

Friday marks Brunson’s fourth game at Madison Square Garden against the Celtics since April. In the previous three, he collected 29 assists and went 3-0 against this prop.

Celtics vs. Knicks prop picks made at 4:08 p.m. ET 05/15/2025.

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets look to defend home court on Thursday night and push this second-round series to a Game 7.

The pregame narrative: Jokic dropped 44 points last time out, but his Nuggets came up short on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC (-139) is now the odds-on favourite to win the NBA Finals.

I’m backing Jokic and Thunder big man Isaiah Hartenstein in my Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks for Game 6 on May 15.

Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks

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Best Bet: Jokic over 28.5 points (-118)

Jokic is everything to the Nuggets, and with their season on the line, I expect him to have a huge night.

At 30.0 points, 14.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists, Jokic is leading Denver in all major statistical categories this series. He’s even the steals leader (2.0/game).

I’m focused on the scoring aspect, though, because I think this is a more palatable number than the overs on some of his other markets.

It’s a simplified stance, but I definitely expect Jokic to be more ball-dominant than usual in a do-or-die game.

Look at Jokic’s deployment in each of the past three games:

• 42+ minutes
• 22+ shot attempts
• 7+ attempted 3s

Jokic hadn’t played that many minutes in three straight games at any other point in the season. And he hadn’t attempted 22-plus shots in three straight since early December.

It should surprise no one that this three-time MVP is putting his team on his back again.

Jokic has only gone over 28.5 points in four of 12 playoff games. But two of those were 40-plus-point efforts against the Thunder — including a 44-point night in Game 5.

I think the dire circumstances will push Jokic to another hefty point total on Thursday.

Key stat: Jokic has cashed this bet in 36 of 82 games this year (playoffs included). He averaged a career-high 29.6 PPG during the regular season.

Game 6 prop prediction

Hartenstein over 20.5 points/rebounds (-125): He’s not the star of the show in OKC (far from it, actually), but Hartenstein is doing what is asked of him this postseason.

Simply put, he’s a big body who produces a solid rebounding output and some relatively efficient shooting.

And he’s been excellently reliable against this line.

• Hartenstein is averaging 10.6 points and 9.2 rebounds this postseason. He is 6-3 against this prop.

• Against the Nuggets in particular, Hartenstein has averaged 22.1 PR in seven matchups on the year, going 6-1 against this prop.

The 7-feet, 255-pound centre is unlikely to have a huge night as a scorer. But he’s a consistent double-double threat, and his high floor as a rebounder has yielded great success in this prop market.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 4:08 p.m. ET 05/14/2025.