Category: NBA

With the NBA Finals set to begin this week, let’s take a closer look at the unexpected matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers.

The latest: OKC, coming off its second season atop the Western Conference, was believed to be a championship-calibre squad all season long. Indiana, however, is a stunning Finals entrant as the No. 4 seed in the East. Both teams are deep and accustomed to playing at a frenetic pace.

Check out our Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals betting preview and odds for the series.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals preview

OKC is a massive favourite to win, and it’s easy to see why.

After an NBA-high 68 wins in the regular season, the Thunder have remained dominant in the playoffs and posted a +11.2 net rating (for context, in the regular season, they were the only team with a net rating above 10.0).

Despite the presence of a clear favourite and underdog, this NBA Finals matchup isn’t a clash of styles.

• Depth is an asset on both sides, as OKC and Indiana are accustomed to playing eight or nine players on a nightly basis.

• They both rank in the top three in fast-break points and pace this postseason.

The Thunder were expected to be here. The Pacers were not. But both have earned their spots by taking care of the basketball, rolling deep lineups and wearing down their opponents with fast-paced play.

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NBA Finals preview: Series markets 

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As -715 favourites, the Thunder’s implied probability to win this series is 87.7%.

That’s far from the norm in a championship series, but it speaks to how well the Thunder have performed all season long.

Indiana is no stranger to the underdog role, mind you. The Pacers weren’t expected to knock out the Knicks or the top-seeded Cavaliers.

Of its 12 postseason wins so far, Indiana was the underdog for seven of them.

Unless you’re eyeing the Pacers to pull off a hefty upset, it makes more sense to scope out some other series markets:

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. NBA odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on 06/02/2025.

OKC’s case to win

Youth doesn’t always mean inexperience, and OKC is proof of that.

After claiming the No. 1 seed in a loaded Western Conference last season, the Thunder entered 2024-25 as the youngest team in the NBA (24.15 years old).

Entering the Finals, OKC’s average age is 25.33 years, per NBA.com, making it the fourth-youngest team ever to reach this stage.

The Thunder play with a youthful energy, especially on defence. They’re leading the postseason in turnovers forced (18.0/game), defensive rating (104.7) and percentage of points off turnovers (20.3%).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, fresh off an MVP coronation, gives OKC the best individual performer in this matchup. With two rotational 7-footers, the Thunder also have more size than the Pacers. And let’s not forget how menacing Alex Caruso and Lu Dort are as wing defenders.

During the regular season, the Thunder went 2-0 vs. the Pacers. OKC won their most recent matchup, 132-111, at home on March 29.

Indiana’s case to win

If the Pacers are going to pull this off — and it’s a sizeable if — I think they have to do two things really, really well.

1. Keep turnovers to a minimum. As mentioned, OKC is as good as it gets in terms of forcing turnovers and capitalizing on them. But the Pacers have done well to limit their gaffes in that regard, posting the third-lowest turnover rate in the postseason (12.7%). Indiana can’t afford to cough up many easy buckets in this series, especially in the non-SGA minutes.

2. Over-index on 3-point shooting. Only 39.1% of the Pacers’ field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc, which ranks 11th of 16 playoff teams. But Indiana has been No. 1 in the postseason in 3PT% (40.1). OKC is 13th in 3PT% (33.6), so this is a rare area where the Pacers have a distinct advantage.

Protect the ball and take more shots from deep. That’s the basic formula that gives the Pacers their best shot.

NBA Finals preview: Star spotlight

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
Position: Point guard
’25 playoff stats: 29.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 85.7 FT%

Gilgeous-Alexander has -5,000 odds to lead the Finals in scoring, which is one way to illustrate his importance in this matchup.

The regular season scoring champ already has 10 playoff games with 30-plus points and five-plus assists. Since 1963, only LeBron James and Michael Jordan have ever had more in a single postseason.

During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander scored 45 and 33 points, respectively, in his two matchups vs. Indiana. He also had seven rebounds and eight assists in both games.

Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers)
Position: Point guard
’25 playoff stats: 18.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 9.8 assists, nine double-doubles

Haliburton’s single-greatest moment of the 2025 postseason was his game-tying buzzer-beater against the Knicks in Game 1 of the ECF. Can he top that in the Finals?

People often use the term “clutch” anecdotally, but there are ways to quantify it, too. In the NBA, clutch time refers to the final five minutes of regulation or overtime when the score is within five points.

Haliburton has an NBA-high 8.0 assist-to-turnover ratio in clutch time this postseason. But he’s been a cold-blooded shooter in the biggest moments all year long, too.

Here’s another way to define Hali’s clutch gene, according to Tom Haberstroh on Substack: Haliburton is 12-for-14 this season on shots to tie or take the lead in the final two minutes. Sheesh.

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Betting trends

OKC Thunder
– 60-35-4 ATS (1st in the NBA)
– 58-34-4 ATS in home games (2nd)
– 43-7 SU in home games (1st)
– Overs are 29-20-1 in home games (7th)
– 2-0 ATS vs. Indiana this year

Indiana Pacers
– 47-48-3 ATS (17th)
– 23-17-1 ATS as underdogs (5th)
– 22-19 SU as underdogs (2nd)
– Overs are 26-21-1 in road games (12th)
– Overs are 25-14-2 as underdogs (4th)

NBA Finals prediction

My pick: Thunder -2.5 games (-124)

The star power, the size and even the depth. It’s all on OKC’s side.

No disrespect to the Pacers, but they fall short of the Thunder in all sorts of key areas. Indiana also has three wins this postseason in which it trailed by seven-plus points in the final minute. I don’t see anything like that happening against OKC.

The Thunder cashed this bet in the first round against Memphis and in the WCF against Minnesota. Having home-court advantage puts OKC in a great spot to win in four or five.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 06/02/2025.

Down 3-2 in the Eastern Conference finals, the New York Knicks are back on the road to face the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Indiana, 4-1 as a home favourite this postseason, is a -175 favourite to win on Saturday night and advance to the NBA Finals. The Knicks held the Pacers to 94 points last time out, which was Indiana’s lowest total since Feb. 4.

Check out my Knicks vs. Pacers SGP predictions for Game 6 on May 31, featuring OG Anunoby and Aaron Nesmith.

Knicks vs. Pacers predictions

Parlay: Under 225.5 points | Nesmith under 12.5 points | Anunoby 2+ threes (+290)

Under 225.5 points (-182): This series started blazing fast out of the gates, but the track-meet style of play hasn’t stuck around.

• After a 273-point total in Game 1, the ensuing four games have averaged 221.3 points.

• Unders are 3-1 in the past four games of this series.

• Unders are 10-8-2 when the Knicks are road underdogs, per Team Rankings. Also, unders are 19-17-0 when the Pacers are home favourites.

From Games 2-5, the pace has been 96.88 possessions per 48 minutes. That’s roughly two-and-a-half possessions fewer than what Indiana had averaged through its first 15 playoff games.

As we hit the crunch time portion of the series, I wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams continue to take a slightly more cautious approach.

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NBA SGP legs

Nesmith under 12.5 points (-190): Nesmith’s 30-point performance in Game 1, featuring 8-of-9 shooting from beyond the arc, will always be the stuff of legends.

But that’s nowhere near his typical output, and he’s since come back down to Earth.

In his past four games, Nesmith is averaging 9.8 points on 37.5% shooting from the floor. He’s cashed this under in three of those matchups.

After his series-opening explosion, you might’ve expected the Pacers to continue feeding the fifth-year small forward. But heat checks don’t always carry from one game to another.

With single-digit shot attempts in four straight games, Nesmith is back into his standard role as a middle-tier scorer on a team with ample depth.

Anunoby 2+ threes (-205): It’s been back-to-back rough shooting performances from deep for Anunoby, but I’m buying in on what I hope will continue to be some solid volume.

After going 3-0 vs. this 3s milestone to open the series, Anunoby has hit the under twice while shooting 2-for-14 beyond the arc. Woof.

The glass-half-full approach — which I’m taking — is to appreciate that he’s taking as many 3-point attempts as he is.

With six or more attempted 3s in every game this series, the ex-Raptor is giving himself a chance to chase this bet every night.

Over his past eight playoff games, Anunoby is averaging 2.4 made 3s on 7.5 attempts.

Knicks vs. Pacers predictions made at 9:05 a.m. ET 05/31/2025.

The Eastern Conference finals shifts back to Indiana for Game 6, as the New York Knicks look to stave off elimination against the Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Karl-Anthony Towns was superb in Game 5 and helped lead New York to a comfortable victory. The Knicks have one win as road underdogs already in this series, but they’ll need another one to force Game 7.

I’m targeting Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart and Myles Turner in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks for Game 6 on May 31.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks

Best bet: Hart over 18.5 points/rebounds (-110)

A move to the bench might’ve seemed like a death knell for Hart’s productivity at first, but that hasn’t been the case at all.

Hart, one of New York’s three “Nova Knicks,” played 34-plus minutes off the bench in Games 3-5.

His chemistry within the rotation is an obvious plus, but he’s also an elite pound-for-pound rebounder. In my view, his playing time is as safe as anyone in coach Tom Thibodeau’s inner circle.

The Knicks’ offence doesn’t flow through Hart, but he’s been efficient in this series. The 30-year-old wing is averaging 9.2 PPG on 52.0% shooting.

He’s also attempted six free throws in each of the past three games.

Even if the shooting numbers are tame on Saturday, I know Hart can get halfway to this number (or more) as a rebounder. He has 10-plus rebounds in five of his past six games.

In fact, Hart has 10-plus rebounds in seven of eight games vs. the Pacers this season (regular season and playoffs included).

Throughout the postseason, Hart has gone 11-6 against this prop while averaging 12.0 PPG and 8.9 RPG.

Whether he’s in the starting lineup or not, he’ll see big minutes and plenty of action around the ball.

Key stat: Hart has played 15 games vs. Indiana since the start of their 2024 playoff series. In that span, he’s 10-5 against this prop while averaging 23.7 PR.

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Game 6 prop prediction

Towns over 21.5 points (-125): I took the under on KAT’s points prop at this very number in Game 5. Wrong move.

How foolish of me to think that Towns’ presence on the injury report (knee, questionable) would hamper the 7-footer. He led the Knicks in shot attempts (20) and minutes (36) en route to a 24-point double-double.

• Towns is now 4-1 vs. this points prop in the ECF.

• He has 20+ points in all eight games vs. Indiana this year (27.3 PPG).

Towns, who was apparently playing hurt, had a physical edge to his game on Thursday that I didn’t expect. That’s certainly a good sign for his ability to cash this bet in Game 6.

Turner over 1.5 assists (+163): Turner isn’t thought of as a facilitator, but this price intrigues me.

The assist ceiling isn’t high for Turner, who’s averaging 1.5 APG this year (playoffs included). But he has cashed this bet in three of five games this series.

Dating back to last year’s Knicks/Pacers playoff matchup, Turner is 7-7 on this prop market against New York (1.7 APG).

At this price, I’ll buy that hit rate.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks made at 2:32 p.m. ET 05/30/2025.

The New York Knicks are in a hole, down 3-1 against the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals.

The pregame narrative: The Pacers were the first home team to win in this series in Game 4. Now, the ECF shifts back to Madison Square Garden, where the Knicks need a home win to keep their championship aspirations alive.

Check out my Pacers vs. Knicks SGP predictions for Game 5 on May 29, featuring Tyrese Haliburton, Mikal Bridges and Myles Turner.

Pacers vs. Knicks predictions

Parlay: Haliburton 3+ threes | Bridges 15+ points | Turner over 19.5 points/rebounds (+330)

Haliburton 3+ threes (-200): Haliburton has been firing 3s at a high rate in the conference finals.

• Game 1: 4-for-12
• Game 2: 3-for-10
• Game 3: 2-for-8
• Game 4: 5-for-12

Overall, that’s a whopping 10.5 attempts per game, which is an incredible floor to work with for this pick.

When a player is shooting that much, he doesn’t even need to be efficient to clear this line. Case in point, Haliburton has a 33.3 3PT% in this series but is 3-1 vs. this wager.

I do expect better performances moving forward, though. After all, Haliburton shot 38.8% from deep in the regular season.

He’s been cashing this wager despite poor efficiency, so he should be good for a few triples even if he continues hitting shots at a below-average rate.

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NBA SGP legs

Bridges 15+ points (-190): Bridges has cleared this line in every game of this series, averaging 17.0 points per game.

He’s taken over 15 shot attempts in every matchup and, despite shooting 43.3%, has had no problems cashing this wager.

It shouldn’t get any worse for Bridges, who shot 50.0% from the field this season.

What’s important is that his volume has stayed consistent throughout the playoffs. He’s averaging 15.1 shot attempts over 16 games and has taken more than 10 shots in every matchup.

He’s 10-6 against this line and should continue shooting the rock with his team on the brink of elimination.

It’s also worth noting that Karl-Anthony Towns is a game-time decision with a knee injury.

If Towns is out or limited in any capacity, more volume would be available for the Knicks’ other starters.

Turner over 19.5 points/rebounds (-120): There is value on this line based on Turner’s typical playoff production.

Turner is averaging 16.2 points and 5.4 rebounds this postseason. So any average (or above) performance would do the trick here.

The big man was in foul trouble last game, tallying 13 points — his lowest of the series — before fouling out.

He cleared this line in Game 3 (19 points, 4 rebounds) and finished with exactly 19 points/rebounds in the two matchups before.

The 6-foot-11 centre is shooting 51.7% from the field and 38.6% from 3-point range. That includes shooting over 50.0% in 12 of 14 postseason games.

If he has enough shot volume on Thursday, he should have no trouble hitting the over on this line.

Knicks vs. Pacers predictions made at 9:35 a.m. ET 05/29/2025.