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Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals prop picks Game 6: Back Jalen Williams, fade Alex Caruso

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Indiana Pacers with a chance to win the NBA Finals.

The pregame narrative: The Thunder have their first lead of the series and took it at the right time. They won Game 5 at home behind 71 combined points from Jalen Williams and Shai-Gilgeous Alexander. OKC has a shot to end things on Thursday while the Pacers look to force Game 7.

I’m targeting Williams and Alex Caruso in my Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks for June 19.

Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks

Best bet: Williams over 29.5 points/rebounds (-118)

The No. 2 option for the Thunder exploded for 40 points in Game 5.

That’s now three games in a row that Williams has been productive as a scorer and rebounder.

Game 3: 26 points, six rebounds
Game 4: 27 points, seven rebounds
Game 5: 40 points, six rebounds

He shot at least 18 field goals and 11 free throws in each of those contests. Before this stretch, he hadn’t attempted more than 10 FTs in a game in the payoffs.

Williams is attacking the basket at a high rate right now. He’s averaging 16.7 drives over the last three games (his postseason average is 14.0).

He’s also shooting 50.8% during that time. If he continues being aggressive while scoring efficiently, this should be another opportunity for Williams to breeze past this mark.

Key stat: Williams is 8-3 against this line in the playoffs when taking 18 or more shots.

Game 6 prop prediction

Caruso under 6.5 rebounds/assists (-150): Caruso hasn’t shown an ability to reach this mark consistently.

He’s averaging 2.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists in the playoffs.

Caruso is 14-7 on this under. That includes going under 6.5 RA in 14 of the last 16 games.

There is an element of risk to this pick as Caruso’s defensive upside keeps him on the floor for around 30 minutes a night.

But he’s not a ball-handler and is usually on the perimeter on both offence and defence, limiting his potential as a playmaker and rebounder.

Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks made at 4:06 p.m. ET 06/18/2025.

Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals prop picks Game 6: Back Jalen Williams, fade Alex Caruso

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Indiana Pacers with a chance to win the NBA Finals.

The pregame narrative: The Thunder have their first lead of the series and took it at the right time. They won Game 5 at home behind 71 combined points from Jalen Williams and Shai-Gilgeous Alexander. OKC has a shot to end things on Thursday while the Pacers look to force Game 7.

I’m targeting Williams and Alex Caruso in my Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks for June 19.

Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks

Best bet: Williams over 28.5 points/rebounds (-122)

The No. 2 option for the Thunder exploded for 40 points in Game 5.

That’s now three games in a row that Williams has been productive as a scorer and rebounder.

Game 3: 26 points, six rebounds
Game 4: 27 points, seven rebounds
Game 5: 40 points, six rebounds

He shot at least 18 field goals and 11 free throws in each of those contests. Before this stretch, he hadn’t attempted more than 10 FTs in a game in the payoffs.

Williams is attacking the basket at a high rate right now. He’s averaging 16.7 drives over the last three games (his postseason average is 14.0).

He’s also shooting 50.8% during that time. If he continues being aggressive while scoring efficiently, this should be another opportunity for Williams to breeze past this mark.

Key stat: Williams is 8-3 against this line in the playoffs when taking 18 or more shots.

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Game 6 prop prediction

Caruso under 6.5 rebounds/assists (-117): Caruso hasn’t shown an ability to reach this mark consistently.

He’s averaging 2.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists in the playoffs.

Caruso is 14-7 on this under. That includes going under 6.5 RA in 14 of the last 16 games.

There is an element of risk to this pick as Caruso’s defensive upside keeps him on the floor for around 30 minutes a night.

But he’s not a ball-handler and is usually on the perimeter on both offence and defence, limiting his potential as a playmaker and rebounder.

Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks made at 12:22 p.m. ET 06/18/2025.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Game 5 SGP: Bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Alex Caruso at +350

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will break a deadlock in the NBA Finals on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: Nobody expected this series to be tied through four games, and the odds indicate OKC should pull away with this in short order. The Thunder are heavily favoured to win at home tonight behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been automatic at Paycom Center.

Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 5 on June 16, featuring SGA.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Pacers +16.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Caruso 2+ threes (+350)

Pacers +16.5 (-315): At this point, it wouldn’t shock me if the Pacers managed to win this game and the series. Rick Carlisle’s squad has been pulling off upsets all postseason and has been an exceptionally tough road team since Day 1.

The Pacers have an 8-2 road record in the playoffs.

Their +0.4 road net rating ranks third among all playoff teams.

Since the start of the regular season, Indiana is 19-12 ATS as a road underdog. That’s the fourth-best mark in basketball.

The Pacers are 18-2 against this line in the playoffs and have covered this mark in five of six games against the Thunder this year (all four this series).

Don’t expect Indiana to roll over tonight.

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NBA SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-265): Gilgeous-Alexander is on a generational scoring run, and that’s reflected in these heavily juiced odds.

The Canadian averaged a league-best 32.7 PPG this year en route to winning the MVP. He has kept his foot on the gas in the playoffs, especially at home.

31.8 PPG at home on 49.4% shooting
30+ points in nine straight home games

SGA is averaging a whopping 35.0 PPG in his last five home playoff games, dropping 38 and 34 in the first two games of this series.

He’s coming off a 35-point effort on the road in Game 4 and is rightfully leading the Thunder in minutes and field-goal attempts per game.

Caruso 2+ threes (-105): Caruso has become an X-factor for the Thunder this series, with Mark Daigneault leaning on the veteran heavily as the series goes on.

He is averaging 29.3 minutes a night — after logging 22.6 against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the WCF — and has made hay with those opportunities:

14.8 points/game
2.5 steals/game
50.0 3PT%

Caruso is shooting 43.2% from deep this postseason and is 9-7 against this line since the start of the second round.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions made at 11:56 a.m. ET 06/16/2025.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals prop picks Game 5: Target Chet Holmgren, Pascal Siakam

The NBA Finals shift back to Oklahoma City with the Thunder and Indiana Pacers tied at two games apiece.

The pregame narrative: Not many predicted a competitive Finals, but that’s what fans got, and it’s outlived expectations so far. One of these teams will take an all-important 3-2 lead in this series after Game 5 on Monday.

I’m targeting Chet Holmgren and Pascal Siakam in my Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks for June 16.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Holmgren over 25.5 points/rebounds (-108)

The Thunder have finally realized that Indiana doesn’t have the personnel required to guard Holmgren down low.

After logging under 30 minutes and failing to cash this wager in both Games 1 and 2, OKC unleashed its 7-foot-1 big man.

Game 3: 34 mins, 20 points, 10 rebounds
Game 4: 37 mins, 14 points, 15 rebounds

When he plays important starter minutes, the points/rebounds have piled up. It’s also encouraging that he breezed past this line without hitting a 3 in those games (0-for-7).

If he continues to be on the court as much as he should be, he’s going to have a lot of opportunities to score and collect rebounds.

Key stat: The Pacers gave up the second-most PR to power forwards in the regular season (35.37), per Fantasy Pros. Holmgren started at PF in Game 4 beside Isaiah Hartenstein at centre.

Game 5 prop prediction

Siakam over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-130): Siakam has found other ways to contribute besides scoring against the NBA’s best defensive team.

He is averaging 7.8 rebounds and 4.0 assists in the Finals (3-1 against this line).

Siakam finished with 10 rebounds/assists in the outlier.

The former Toronto Raptor has been showing off his ability as a playmaker, recording at least three assists in every game.

Siakam’s also grabbed six or more rebounds in all four games so far, showing off a solid floor as a stat stuffer.

I’m going to keep riding his momentum at a good price.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks made at 9:52 a.m. ET 06/15/2025.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals prop picks Game 5: Target Chet Holmgren, Pascal Siakam

The NBA Finals shift back to Oklahoma City with the Thunder and Indiana Pacers tied at two games apiece.

The pregame narrative: Not many predicted a competitive Finals, but that’s what fans got, and it’s outlived expectations so far. One of these teams will take an all-important 3-2 lead in this series after Game 5 on Monday.

I’m targeting Chet Holmgren and Pascal Siakam in my Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks for June 16.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Holmgren over 24.5 points/rebounds (-114)

The Thunder have finally realized that Indiana doesn’t have the personnel required to guard Holmgren down low.

After logging under 30 minutes and failing to cash this wager in both Games 1 and 2, OKC unleashed its 7-foot-1 big man.

Game 3: 34 mins, 20 points, 10 rebounds
Game 4: 37 mins, 14 points, 15 rebounds

When he plays important starter minutes, the points/rebounds have piled up. It’s also encouraging that he breezed past this line without hitting a 3 in those games (0-for-7).

If he continues to be on the court as much as he should be, he’s going to have a lot of opportunities to score and collect rebounds.

Key stat: The Pacers gave up the second-most PR to power forwards in the regular season (35.37), per Fantasy Pros. Holmgren started at PF in Game 4 beside Isaiah Hartenstein at centre.

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Game 5 prop prediction

Siakam over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-112): Siakam has found other ways to contribute besides scoring against the NBA’s best defensive team.

He is averaging 7.8 rebounds and 4.0 assists in the Finals (3-1 against this line).

Siakam finished with 10 rebounds/assists in the outlier.

The former Toronto Raptor has been showing off his ability as a playmaker, recording at least three assists in every game.

Siakam’s also grabbed six or more rebounds in all four games so far, showing off a solid floor as a stat stuffer.

I’m going to keep riding his momentum at a good price.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks made at 9:52 a.m. ET 06/15/2025.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals best bets Game 5: Back Indiana to cover, Holmgren to produce

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers meet for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday.

The pregame narrative: OKC is heavily favoured to win this contest and the Larry O’Brien Trophy after levelling the series on Friday night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went berserk in the fourth quarter and is the frontrunner to win Finals MVP.

Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder best bets for Game 5, featuring Chet Holmgren.

Pacers vs. Thunder best bets

Best bet: Holmgren over 25.5 points and rebounds (-108)

Holmgren has smashed this line in consecutive games thanks to monster performances on the glass, and there’s good reason to believe that continues:

Game 3: 20 points, 10 rebounds
Game 4: 14 points, 15 rebounds

Indiana is relatively undersized and ranks 12th among 16 playoff teams in rebounding rate (48.0%).

The wiry Holmgren stands at 7-foot-1 and has been getting plenty of run from Mark Daigneault after being used sparingly through the first two games of this series.

Holmgren got 35 and 37 minutes the last two games after playing 24 and 28 minutes the first two. OKC can run away with things, especially at home, but it would be foolish for the squad to take its foot off the gas with three games to play.

Daigneault should give his talented power forward a ton of run on three days’ rest as the season reaches an epic conclusion.

Key stat: Indiana has gotten torched by power forwards this season. It has allowed the ninth-most points (23.87) and second-most rebounds (11.50) per game to the position, according to Fantasy Pros.

NBA Finals Game 5 picks

Pacers +10.5 (-134): I said the Thunder can run away with things at home, but I don’t necessarily expect them to.

Indiana has been neck-and-neck with OKC this series, outside of a 16-point loss in Game 2. And on the whole, Rick Carlisle’s squad has been dynamite on the road all season.

8-2 road record in the playoffs
+0.4 road net rating in playoffs (third among playoff teams)
19-12 ATS as a road underdog, regular season and playoffs (fourth in NBA)

A lot of things had to go right for OKC to win on Friday night, including a herculean fourth quarter from Gilgeous-Alexander and Indiana shooting a collective 42.5% from the field.

Overall, the Pacers have had a better true shooting percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio in the Finals. If they take care of the ball, this should be close.

Pacers vs. Thunder best bets made at 3:04 p.m. ET 06/14/2025.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals best bets Game 5: Back Indiana to cover, Holmgren to produce

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers meet for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday.

The pregame narrative: OKC is heavily favoured to win this contest and the Larry O’Brien Trophy after levelling the series on Friday night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went berserk in the fourth quarter and is the frontrunner to win Finals MVP.

Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder best bets for Game 5, featuring Chet Holmgren.

Pacers vs. Thunder best bets

Best bet: Holmgren over 24.5 points and rebounds (-112)

Holmgren has smashed this line in consecutive games thanks to monster performances on the glass, and there’s good reason to believe that continues:

Game 3: 20 points, 10 rebounds
Game 4: 14 points, 15 rebounds

Indiana is relatively undersized and ranks 12th among 16 playoff teams in rebounding rate (48.0%).

The wiry Holmgren stands at 7-foot-1 and has been getting plenty of run from Mark Daigneault after being used sparingly through the first two games of this series.

Holmgren got 35 and 37 minutes the last two games after playing 24 and 28 minutes the first two. OKC can run away with things, especially at home, but it would be foolish for the squad to take its foot off the gas with three games to play.

Daigneault should give his talented power forward a ton of run on three days’ rest as the season reaches an epic conclusion.

Key stat: Indiana has gotten torched by power forwards this season. It has allowed the ninth-most points (23.87) and second-most rebounds (11.50) per game to the position, according to Fantasy Pros.

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NBA Finals Game 5 picks

Pacers +10.5 (-129): I said the Thunder can run away with things at home, but I don’t necessarily expect them to.

Indiana has been neck-and-neck with OKC this series, outside of a 16-point loss in Game 2. And on the whole, Rick Carlisle’s squad has been dynamite on the road all season.

8-2 road record in the playoffs
+0.4 road net rating in playoffs (third among playoff teams)
19-12 ATS as a road underdog, regular season and playoffs (fourth in NBA)

A lot of things had to go right for OKC to win on Friday night, including a herculean fourth quarter from Gilgeous-Alexander and Indiana shooting a collective 42.5% from the field.

Overall, the Pacers have had a better true shooting percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio in the Finals. If they take care of the ball, this should be close.

Pacers vs. Thunder best bets made at 3:04 p.m. ET 06/14/2025.

Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 4 SGP predictions: Bet on Holmgren, Mathurin to stay involved

A massive Game 4 in the NBA Finals is coming up tonight from Indiana.

The pregame narrative: A win for the Pacers pushes them to a 3-1 series lead that no one would’ve seen coming. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder can reclaim home-court advantage with a win as road favourites.

Check out my Thunder vs. Pacers SGP predictions for Game 4 on June 13, featuring Chet Holmgren and Bennedict Mathurin.

Thunder vs. Pacers predictions

Parlay: Pacers +9.5 | Holmgren 15+ points | Mathurin 10+ points (+340)

Pacers +9.5 (-210): After losing Game 1 in jaw-dropping fashion, the Thunder responded with a comfortable 16-point win in Game 2.

After losing Game 3, OKC is expected to come out and level the series again. But even if that does happen, I doubt it’ll be in blowout fashion.

Indiana is 6-3 ATS at home in the postseason (with two outright wins as an underdog).

Indiana is 7-2 SU with a +6.2 net rating at home.

In Game 3 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, neither team led by more than nine points at any time in the game.

The Pacers have covered a +9.5 spread in 8 of 9 home games (and in 15 of 19 playoff games overall).

Indiana is just as deep as OKC, so the two-day turnaround from the last game shouldn’t be an issue. And of course, a raucous home crowd should help the Pacers.

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NBA SGP legs

Holmgren 15+ points (-139): Holmgren and fellow 7-footer Isaiah Hartenstein were rarely healthy at the same time during the regular season. So it was difficult to know who’d be the primary big when crunch time came around.

Well, we’re here now, and Holmgren is the guy who’s stepped up.

The second-year centre is far more involved offensively than his veteran counterpart, and it showed in his Game 3 performance:

35 minutes
20 points
6-of-15 shooting

Despite an 0-for-6 night from deep, Holmgren cashed this scoring milestone with ease.

He went 8-for-9 from the free-throw line, which is an uncharacteristically high volume. But it’s nice to see that he can take it to the rack if his outside shooting is off.

Since the start of the conference finals, Holmgren is 6-2 vs. this scoring milestone while averaging 16.4 PPG.

Mathurin 10+ points (-155): Indiana should continue to let Mathurin cook.

The Montreal native has had an up-and-down postseason, but he’s riding a really nice wave right now.

Mathurin is 4-2 vs. this prop in his past six games. He’s shooting 59.1% from the field and averaging 6.8 free-throw attempts in that span.

Shot volume is the primary concern for Mathurin, but he should be emboldened to continue firing after scoring a postseason-high 27 points last time out. He did that on 9-of-12 shooting.

Thunder vs. Pacers predictions made at 9:30 a.m. ET 06/13/2025.

Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals prop picks Game 4: Bet on Pascal Siakam and Alex Caruso on Friday

Friday’s NBA Finals matchup in Indianapolis will shape the rest of the series.

The pregame narrative: Either the Indiana Pacers will take a commanding 3-1 lead, or the Oklahoma City Thunder will regain home-court advantage in a best-of-three. The odds suggest it will be the latter, as OKC is favoured by 6.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

I’m targeting Pascal Siakam and Alex Caruso in my Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks for June 13.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Siakam over 27.5 points/rebounds (-108)

Siakam isn’t quite playing at the level that won him Eastern Conference finals MVP, but I think there’s plenty of room to grow.

He had his best outing of the series in Game 3, finishing with 21 points and six rebounds while shooting 57.1% from the field.

And that shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering he’s been dynamite at home this postseason:

Home (9 GP): 21.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 56.7 FG%
Away (10 GP): 19.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 48.7 FG%

Siakam is averaging 24.2 points and 5.2 rebounds across his last five home games. In those contests, he went 2-3 against this line but landed on exactly 27 points and rebounds twice.

OKC is a great defensive team, but I’ll still ride with Siakam, who is shooting the lights out at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

The Thunder are also soft on the glass, ranking 11th out of 16 playoff teams in rebounding rate.

Key stat: Siakam has scored 20-plus points in three straight home games vs. OKC.

Game 4 prop prediction

Caruso over 1.5 threes (+105): OKC is good enough that this isn’t a “must-win” game, but it’ll still want to leave no doubt. I expect Mark Daigneault to give his starters plenty of run, with the exception of sophomore Cason Wallace.

The 21-year-old guard is in a timeshare with Caruso, which has begun to swing in the veteran’s favour.

Caruso played four more minutes than Wallace in Game 2 and nine more minutes than Wallace in Game 3.

He shot a combined 6-for-10 from deep in those games, clearing this line both times.

Caruso is shooting 43.0% from deep this postseason, and is 9-6 against this line in his last 15 games.

Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks made at 10:42 a.m. ET 06/12/2025.

Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals prop picks Game 4: Bet on Pascal Siakam and Alex Caruso on Friday

Friday’s NBA Finals matchup in Indianapolis will shape the rest of the series.

The pregame narrative: Either the Indiana Pacers will take a commanding 3-1 lead, or the Oklahoma City Thunder will regain home-court advantage in a best-of-three. The odds suggest it will be the latter, as OKC is favoured by 6.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

I’m targeting Pascal Siakam and Alex Caruso in my Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks for June 13.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Siakam over 27.5 points/rebounds (-112)

Siakam isn’t quite playing at the level that won him Eastern Conference finals MVP, but I think there’s plenty of room to grow.

He had his best outing of the series in Game 3, finishing with 21 points and six rebounds while shooting 57.1% from the field.

And that shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering he’s been dynamite at home this postseason:

Home (9 GP): 21.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 56.7 FG%
Away (10 GP): 19.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 48.7 FG%

Siakam is averaging 24.2 points and 5.2 rebounds across his last five home games. In those contests, he went 2-3 against this line but landed on exactly 27 points and rebounds twice.

OKC is a great defensive team, but I’ll still ride with Siakam, who is shooting the lights out at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

The Thunder are also soft on the glass, ranking 11th out of 16 playoff teams in rebounding rate.

Key stat: Siakam has scored 20-plus points in three straight home games vs. OKC.

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Game 4 prop prediction

Caruso over 1.5 threes (+106): OKC is good enough that this isn’t a “must-win” game, but it’ll still want to leave no doubt. I expect Mark Daigneault to give his starters plenty of run, with the exception of sophomore Cason Wallace.

The 21-year-old guard is in a timeshare with Caruso, which has begun to swing in the veteran’s favour.

Caruso played four more minutes than Wallace in Game 2 and nine more minutes than Wallace in Game 3.

He shot a combined 6-for-10 from deep in those games, clearing this line both times.

Caruso is shooting 43.0% from deep this postseason, and is 9-6 against this line in his last 15 games.

Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks made at 10:42 a.m. ET 06/12/2025.