Category: NBA

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers for Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a force in this series, especially at home, where he is averaging 31.8 points, making the Thunder difficult to beat. The Indiana Pacers are led by depth, needing one more win to shock the NBA world.

Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 7 on June 22, featuring Gilgeous-Alexander and Aaron Nesmith.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Thunder -4.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Nesmith 2+ threes (+290)

Thunder -4.5 (-195): OKC has been incredible at home in the postseason. It’s won 10 of 12 games, covering a -4.5 spread in each of those wins.

Indiana was one of those two teams to take a game in Oklahoma City, but the Thunder seemingly erased those demons, winning by double-digit points in the two games at home since.

This isn’t something new in the playoffs. OKC went 36-6 at home in the regular season. So it’s really hard to bet against a team that only lost eight games in its building heading into Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

On top of that, the Thunder has an average point differential of +20.6 at Paycom Center in the postseason.

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NBA SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-190): The 2024-25 MVP is a large part of the Thunder’s home success.

• Gilgeous-Alexander is 10-2 against this over in Oklahoma City.

• The two games he fell shy of this total were in the opening series vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. He’s cleared this mark in 10 straight since.

• That includes the Finals, where SGA is averaging 34.3 PPG at home.

The Canadian is the best scorer in the NBA, and his floor grows even higher when playing in front of the Thunder faithful.

He should be in line for another big performance with the Larry O’Brien up for grabs in a winner-take-all Game 7.

Nesmith 2+ threes (-156): Nesmith has been a sniper for the Pacers in the playoffs.

• He’s averaging 2.7 makes on 5.3 3-point attempts in the playoffs.

• He’s 16-6 against this line (5-1 in the Finals).

Nesmith shot 43.1% from deep in the regular season, which ranked 10th in the NBA.

With efficiency like that, he doesn’t need many attempts to cash the over on this modest total.

And that’s music to my ears when backing a 3-point prop with this good of value.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions made at 1:07 p.m. ET 06/21/2025.

It comes down to this — Game 7 between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

The pregame narrative: This series has been closer than many expected, needing all seven games for a conclusion. OKC will be at home, where it is 10-2 this postseason. But Indiana has thrived as an underdog in these playoffs and needs one more surprise win to claim its first NBA title.

I’m targeting Pascal Siakam and Jalen Williams in my Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks for June 22.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Siakam over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-130)

This is a line that Siakam has been consistently hitting the over on in the NBA Finals.

• Game 1: 10 rebounds, three assists
• Game 2: seven rebounds, four assists
• Game 4: eight rebounds, five assists
• Game 5: six rebounds, five assists
• Game 6: 13 rebounds, three assists

In the one outlier (Game 3), he finished with 10 rebounds/assists, just shy of this mark.

The former Toronto Raptor was always considered a strong No. 2 option at best, but he’s leading the Pacers into a Game 7 against a historically great team.

And as much as he can score, he’s been filling up the statsheet recently.

Siakam elevated his game as a passer and rebounder, averaging 7.2 potential assists (any pass that leads directly to a teammate’s shot) and 13.3 rebound chances per game in the Finals.

Key stat: Overall, he’s averaging 12.3 rebounds/assists in this series.

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Game 7 prop prediction

Williams over 27.5 points/rebounds (-109): Williams fell shy of this mark in Game 6, but the Pacers were up big, and most starters had a lightened workload.

That included the Thunder’s No. 2 option, who played just under 27 minutes in the contest. For reference, he averaged over 35 for the first five games.

Before Thursday’s game, Williams had cleared this line in three straight. That included a 40-point, six-rebound outburst in Game 5 at home.

He averaged 31.0 and 6.3 rebounds in those games.

Williams didn’t play badly last time out either. He hit 6-of-13 shots for 16 points in his limited minutes. An uptick in volume would be very beneficial for this wager.

The dynamic forward is 8-3 against this line in the postseason when taking 18 or more shots.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks made at 8:31 a.m. ET 06/21/2025.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the odds-on favourite to win NBA Finals MVP. But his Oklahoma City Thunder will have to win Game 7 in order for that to happen.

The latest: OKC was shut down by the Indiana Pacers in Game 6, forcing this series into a winner-take-all matchup on Sunday night. Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off his worst game, but he can wipe that away with a solid showing in the finale.

Check out the latest odds to win NBA Finals MVP ahead of Game 7 on Sunday, June 22.

NBA Finals MVP odds

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The favourite: Gilgeous-Alexander (-335)

On a team that rolls with a deep rotation and plays unselfishly, Gilgeous-Alexander is still very clearly the ring leader.

• SGA is leading the Thunder in points (30.5) and assists (4.5), which chipping in 4.5 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game in the Finals.

• Game 6 of the Finals wasn’t pretty for anyone on OKC’s side, Gilgeous-Alexander included. He was the game’s leading scorer, but with only 21 points, and he committed eight turnovers.

• SGA was at his most clutch in the final 2:58 of Game 4, when he scored 11 points to lift OKC to victory. That is the most points by any player in the final three minutes of a Finals win in at least 50 years, according to ESPN Research.

• He’s hit the 30-point, five-assist threshold in 12 of those 22 games. In a single NBA postseason, that’s the most games with those stats that any player has ever had (LeBron James and Michael Jordan both had 11 such games apiece in previous postseasons).

From 1970 onward, no Finals MVP recipient has come from the losing team. Interestingly enough, SGA’s odds to win Finals MVP are even shorter than OKC’s title odds (-286).

MVP notes

• A non-SGA Finals MVP winner on the Thunder’s side might feel impossible … but it’s not. Jalen Williams’ odds tightened from +3,000 to +700 after a series-high 40 points in Game 5. They now sit at +900, and a particularly heroic final game could get it down. Williams dropped 40 points in Game 5, so he’s capable of something special.

• Siakam (+350) is the clear frontrunner among Pacers players, especially with Tyrese Haliburton (calf) seemingly limited due to injury. The Pacers spread the love, so Siakam’s numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he does lead the squad in scoring (19.8 PPG) and rebounding (8.3 RPG) this series.

• Haliburton (+1,300) would have a narrative case on his side, as he battles through what is typically a multi-week calf injury. He’s also made a bunch of clutch shots this postseason, including the game-winner in Game 1. Haliburton leads the Pacers in with 6.8 APG, and he’s expected to gut through Game 7 with the title at stake.

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a state of flux, which has naturally put Giannis Antetokounmpo in the rumour mill of offseason trade discussions.

The latest: Will the Bucks drum up what little assets they still have to keep their competitive window open, or is it time to hit the reset button? Based on the odds for where Giannis will start the 2025-26 season, Milwaukee seems likely to run it back.

Check out our latest Giannis next team odds as of June 19.

Giannis next team odds

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Giannis next team odds as of 3:30 p.m. on 06/19/2025.

Latest rumours

• On June 10, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst poured cold water on Giannis trade rumours by reporting that there “is no Giannis Antetokounmpo trade market” and that the Greek Freak has not asked to be moved.

• As the Bucks weigh their options moving forward, sources confirmed to ESPN’s Bobby Marks that the team will be “aggressively exploring options in free agency and trades to complement Antetokounmpo.”

• The Giannis rumour mill started to turn in mid-May, when ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Giannis was “open-minded” about exploring whether his best long-term fit is in Milwaukee or elsewhere. This report came two weeks after the Indiana Pacers eliminated the fifth-seeded Bucks in the first round, 4-1.

Raptors odds to sign Giannis

The Raptors are a fringe fit for Kevin Durant (+1,200), and they’re in the same range when it comes to Giannis.

It’d be impossible to think about the Raptors adding a megastar via trade and not comparing it to the Kawhi Leonard deal that led to an NBA championship in 2019.

Such a trade would be a bit different with Giannis, though, since he’s under contract through 2027 and owns a player option for 2027-28.

So if a trade to Toronto happened, it wouldn’t be a one-and-done situation the way Kawhi’s tenure was.

The Raptors do have some assets that could entice the Bucks, including the No. 9 pick in the 2025 draft and Scottie Barnes. But it’s difficult to see a Giannis trade that leaves Toronto with enough quality pieces to legitimately compete.

After all, the Raptors were a 30-win team that landed in the lottery last season.

Knicks are Giannis’ likeliest suitor

The Bucks have an 83.33% implied probability of keeping Giannis, so this is all relative. But among the external suitors, the Knicks are the top option on the board.

New York was two wins away from reaching the NBA Finals, and the team’s entire rotation is under contract for another year. After making major changes last offseason, does it make sense to do another shakeup now?

Probably not. But if Giannis tries to force his way to Manhattan, then it’s worth the Knicks’ time to explore a deal.

Karl-Anthony Towns, who’s due an estimated $172 million over the next three seasons, would presumably be at the centre of a Knicks trade package. New York owns an extra first and second in the 2026 draft, but it doesn’t have a first-rounder in 2025.

Another team in the mix is San Antonio (+1,000), which could be motivated if Kevin Durant is traded elsewhere.

The Spurs, who have +250 odds to trade for Durant, have a bounty of draft picks to play with. They own the Nos. 2 and 14 picks in this year’s draft, as well as nine extra second-rounders between 2026-31.

On the player side, San Antonio has plenty of trade ammo, too. If the Spurs really want to make a Victor Wembanyama/Giannis frontcourt happen, they could dangle the likes of Stephon Castle, Jeremy Sochan and/or Keldon Johnson.

Entering the 2025 NBA offseason, Kevin Durant is once again the headliner in trade discussions.

The latest: This is nothing new for Durant, who’s been traded twice since 2019. The 15-time all-star is expected to be moved sometime before the new season begins, and a pair of Texas teams are among the favourites to land him.

Check out our latest Durant next team odds as of June 18.

Durant next team odds

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Durant next team odds as of 3:30 p.m. on 06/18/2025.

Latest rumours

• Durant can’t exactly dictate where he might be traded, but he can still voice his opinion on the matter. According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, Durant has identified the Heat, Rockets and Spurs as his “preferred trade destinations.” It’s believed that any of those teams would commit to Durant beyond the 2025-26 season.

• On June 17, reporter Marc Stein told Sportsnet that the Suns are “trying to get back as much as they can” in dealing Durant. That might seem obvious in any trade scenario, but it also means they may not simply send him to one of his preferred spots. Durant is signed for the upcoming season at a cap hit of $57.4 million.

• The Timberwolves are among the teams with the shortest odds to land Durant. But team sources told The Athletic that they aren’t interested in adding him unless he’s on board with the move.

• On June 16, The Athletic reported that the Rockets have presented the Suns with a “firm offer,” but that Phoenix was “seriously underwhelmed” by it. The Spurs, meanwhile, have reportedly been conservative in Durant discussions.

Raptors odds to sign Durant

It worked with Kawhi Leonard … could it work again?

Leonard was dealt to the Raptors ahead of their storybook 2018-19 season, and the free-agent-to-be was the superstar Toronto needed to achieve its championship dreams.

He bolted for Los Angeles shortly thereafter, but that’s a price worth paying when the result is an NBA title.

There’s no indication that Durant wants to play for Toronto, so acquiring him would likely be a one-and-done deal, too.

Durant had remarkable shooting splits in his age-36 season (52.7/43.0/83.9), but are the Raptors one major piece away from NBA Finals contention?

Coming off a 30-win season that landed the team in the lottery, it doesn’t seem that way. This might be more of a long shot than the 12-to-1 odds indicate.

Heat, Rockets favoured to acquire Durant

Unsurprisingly, Durant’s reportedly preferred landing spots have the shortest odds to reel in the four-time scoring champ.

That’s because those are the only teams that can confidently expect to negotiate with Durant beyond the 2025-26 season.

• Houston’s intrigue starts with the fact that it owns some pretty important Phoenix draft capital. The Rockets have the Suns’ 2025 first (No. 10), 2027 first and swap rights to their 2029 first.
  
  From a player standpoint, Jalen Green could be a feasible headliner. Rising sophomore Reed Sheppard, meanwhile, is an intriguing asset whose opportunities were limited by the Rockets’ deep lineup.

• After back-to-back first-round exits following their 2023 run to the NBA Finals, Miami might feel that Durant can put the team back into legitimate contender status. Remember, the Eastern Conference is in flux in the wake of Jayson Tatum’s injury and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s trade rumours.
  
  The question is whether Miami can assemble a package that entices Phoenix, given that the Heat have minimal draft picks. Kel’el Ware had an encouraging rookie season, so maybe he’d be in the mix.

• Let’s not forget about San Antonio, a team any player should want to play for now that Victor Wembanyama is rounding into superstar form. Also, Durant played his college ball less than two hours up the road in Austin.
  
  The Spurs already made a timeline-advancing trade this past season by acquiring De’Aaron Fox, so maybe they decide to keep their foot on the gas. With two top-15 picks in the 2025 draft and nine extra second-rounders between 2026-31, there’s a lot of draft capital to play with. Not to mention guys like Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson who can contribute for the Suns right away.