Category: NBA

The Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns close out Saturday’s NBA slate in the Mile High City.

The pregame narrative: Denver is a massive 13-point home favourite against what’s projected to be a bottom-feeding Phoenix squad. Nikola Jokic had an uncharacteristic outing in the Nuggets’ season opener, but he is a good pick to bounce back tonight.

Check out my Suns vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for Oct. 25, featuring Grayson Allen.

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Suns vs. Nuggets predictions

Parlay: Nuggets -9.5 | Jokic 25+ points | Allen 3+ threes (+325)

Nuggets -9.5 (-190): The Suns went all in on bringing an NBA championship to Phoenix by acquiring Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal back in 2023.

It was quite the risk that didn’t work out. Durant and Beal are gone, and all Phoenix has to show for it is a pair of first-round playoff series wins.

Now, Devin Booker leads a ragtag group of journeyman, and the Suns are -1,250 to miss the playoffs.

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Denver is still in its championship window and should smash Phoenix tonight.

The Nuggets had the second-best offensive rating (120.4) and the ninth-best net rating (+5.4) at home last season. They won both home games against the Suns by a combined 25 points.

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NBA SGP legs

Jokic 25+ points (-230): It says something about Jokic’s skill level that I can call a 21-point triple-double a “bad game.” But when you’re a three-time MVP, expectations change.

Jokic went 8-for-23 from the floor and 2-for-13 from deep in that contest, which is a true anomaly given his career 55.9 FG%.

-> Bet on Nikola Jokic to fill the basket against Phoenix

He still was only four points off this total, though, and that’s a good sign.

Phoenix acquired defensive stalwart Mark Williams at centre, but Jokic scored 28 points against him in a matchup with the Charlotte Hornets last year.

Allen 3+ threes (-124): Allen is one of the league’s best 3-point shooters, boasting a career 41.4% percentage from deep.

He shot 46.1% from 3-point land in his last full season as a starter, draining 2.7 threes on 5.9 attempts per night. With Durant and Beal out of the picture, I expect a much higher volume from Allen.

He went 3-for-8 from deep in Phoenix’s season opener.

Suns vs. Nuggets predictions made at 12:40 p.m. ET 10/25/2025.

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I’m targeting a trio of big-name point guards in Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

The latest: Tyrese Maxey is the alpha dog on the Philadelphia 76ers, at least for the time being, and has a great matchup to fill the basket. Elsewhere, Trae Young has had a rough start to the season and is worth fading against the defensively stout Oklahoma City Thunder.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 25, featuring a pick on Denver’s Jamal Murray.

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NBA prop bets

Best bet: Maxey over 26.5 points (-118)

I think it’s fair to wonder if Joel Embiid’s run as an elite scorer is over.

He averaged just 23.8 PPG in 19 games last season, a 10-point dip from his previous two campaigns. Injuries have crippled The Process, who is already on a minutes restriction to start the season.

Embiid scored just four points in 20 minutes against the Boston Celtics in his opener.

All of that is to say, Maxey is the captain for now. The dynamic point guard is an elite bucket-getter and will be asked to do the majority of the damage until Embiid is fully healthy (if that will ever happen is another topic).

-> Bet on Tyrese Maxey to torch the Hornets

Maxey went off for 40 points on 13-of-24 shooting against the Celtics, playing a team-high 41 minutes in the victory.

He has another great opportunity to fill up the stat sheet against the hapless Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte gave up the seventh-most PPG to opposing point guards last season, according to Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Maxey has averaged 29.4 PPG in his last five games against Charlotte, scoring 30+ points three times.

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Best NBA picks

Young under 24.5 points (-113): I think it’s time to admit Young is just not an elite shooter.

He’s shot below 45% from the field in the last three seasons, and his 35.7% career 3-point percentage isn’t anything special.

-> Fade Young against the Thunder at NorthStar Bets

The Atlanta Hawks point guard has been a mess to start this season, shooting 12-for-32 from the field (37.5%) and 2-for-13 from deep (15.4%).

He’s scored 22 of his 47 points at the free throw line.

I can’t picture him getting right against the Thunder, who owned the league’s best defensive rating last season.

OKC also gave up the second-fewest PPG to opposing point guards.

Murray over 20.5 points (-121): I backed Kawhi Leonard to clear this exact number against the Phoenix Suns last night, and he came through with 27 points.

Why am I telling you this? Murray is also playing the Suns, and should be able to exploit a similar weakness in Phoenix’s mid-range defence.

• Leonard ranked in the 95th percentile or greater in mid-range shot frequency in each of the previous six seasons, per Cleaning the Glass.

• Murray is right there with him, ranking in the 80th percentile or greater in six straight seasons.

• Phoenix ranked 22nd in mid-range defence last year and is currently 19th.

Murray dropped 25 points in his first game of the season, and only five of those came on non-two points (one 3, two free throws).

This seems like a great matchup for the Canadian to stay hot.

NBA prop picks made at 11:09 a.m. ET on 10/25/2025.

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I’m targeting three big names from Friday’s jam-packed NBA slate to produce on the prop market.

The latest: Victor Wembanyama had an outrageous season debut and is in a good spot to keep things rolling on the glass. Elsewhere, look for Anfernee Simons to produce for the Boston Celtics and Kawhi Leonard to clear a relatively light point total.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 24

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NBA prop bets

Best bet: Simons over 2.5 threes (-108)

I think it’s only a matter of time before we see Simons’ nightly 3-point line move to 3.5.

The long-time Portland Trail Blazer was traded to the Celtics for Jrue Holiday this offseason, and he’s expected to bring immediate offence to the squad with Jayson Tatum sidelined.

Simons averaged north of 3.0 threes per game in each of his last four years in Portland. In that span, he attempted 8.5 threes a night and shot 38.1% from deep. Pretty darn good.

-> Bet on Anfernee Simons to light up the Knicks from deep

Boston relies on the deep ball more than any team in the NBA — attempting a league-high 47.2 threes per game last year — so it’s no surprise that GM Brad Stevens had Simons in his sights.

Simons did come off the bench in his Celtics debut, but he was one of four Celtics to log 30-plus minutes. That tells me he’s going to get plenty of run on a nightly basis.

New York had an awful perimeter defence last year, so this seems like a good matchup for Simons to exploit.

Key stat: The Knicks had the ninth-worst 3-point defence in the NBA last year (36.4%).

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Best NBA picks

Wembanyama over 12.5 rebounds (-104): Wembanyama spent the offseason training with Hakeem Olajuwon, and it looks like The Dream created a nightmare.

Wemby exploded for 40 points and 15 rebounds in his 2025-26 debut, doing the vast majority of his damage from inside the 3-point line (14-for-19 from 2-point range).

His 28.5-point total intrigues me, but I want to tap into his rebounding abilities tonight.

At 7-foot-4, Wembanyama is a matchup headache for any team.

-> Bet on Wemby to clear his rebound total at NorthStar Bets

The New Orleans Pelicans have Zion Williamson, of course, but he only stands at 6-foot-6. They also have some injury concerns at centre with Kevin Looney (knee) out and Yves Missi (ankle) questionable.

Wembanyama has averaged 12.3 rebounds in four starts against NOLA, with at least 10 rebounds in each of those contests.

I think he’s due for another monster night on the glass.

Leonard over 21.5 points (-113): Leonard had a muted season debut, scoring 10 points on 3-for-9 shooting as the Los Angeles Clippers got blown out by the Utah Jazz.

He only played 29 minutes in that matchup, though, and I like his chances of being more active in a closer game against the Phoenix Suns tonight.

Leonard is a mid-range assassin. He ranked in the 95th percentile or greater in mid-range shot frequency in each of the previous six seasons, per Cleaning the Glass.

Phoenix struggled to defend that area of the court last year (22nd in mid-range defence), and I don’t think picking up Dillon Brooks will make much of a difference.

Leonard scored 26 and 28 points in his last two games against Brooks when he was on the Rockets, anyway.

NBA prop picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 10/24/2025.

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Thursday’s NBA slate features just two games, including an NBA Finals rematch between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers.

The latest: Indiana is a hefty home underdog with Tyrese Haliburton, who tore his Achillies in Game 7 of the finals, sidelined. I expect Andrew Nembhard to step up in his absence, with Cason Wallace doing damage for the visitors.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 23, featuring a pick on three-time MVP Nikola Jokic when the Golden State Warriors host the Denver Nuggets.

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NBA prop bets

Best bet: Nembhard over 20.5 points and assists (-121)

Oklahoma City is the league’s best defensive team, so this isn’t exactly a good matchup for Nembhard.

But I’m keen to back the Canadian in this spot. Nembhard has improved his game year-over-year and has an opportunity to take a huge leap with Haliburton out.

Nembhard averaged career highs in points (10.0) and assists (5.0) last season. Thats well under this number, but his numbers without Haliburton are much better (43 games played):

• 13.0 PPG
• 6.8 APG
• 12.1 FGA/game

-> Bet on Andrew Nembhard against the defending champs

Nembhard only shot 42.7% from the field in those non-Haliburton contests, so there’s certainly room to grow from an offensive standpoint.

As a passer, I’m hoping he can supplant some of Haliburton’s 9.2 assists per game, which ranked third in the NBA.

Key stat: Nembhard cleared this line in consecutive games to close out the finals against OKC.

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Best NBA picks

Wallace over 1.5 threes (+148): This seems like solid value for Wallace, a member of OKC’s bench mob who should get staters’ minutes on Thursday.

• Isiah Joe and Jalen Williams are out. They ranked first and fourth, respectively, in 3-point attempts per game for OKC last season.

• Lu Dort, who ranked second in 3s attempted per game, is listed as questionable with an ankle sprain.

Wallace is a career 38.9% three-point shooter. He went 3-for-8 from deep on opening night while playing a career-high 42 minutes.

That game did go into double overtime, but he was one of the players Mark Daigneault leaned on down the stretch.

Jokic over 11.5 rebounds (-110): The only question with Jokic at this point is how long he will want to play in the NBA. Because if he’s on the court, good luck stopping him.

-> Bet on Nikola Jokic at NorthStar Bets

Jokic has averaged north of 11.5 rebounds in four straight seasons and ranked third in rebounds per game (12.7) last year.

He’s going to play huge minutes on a nightly basis and has a great matchup against the Warriors.

The tallest player in Golden State’s starting lineup is 6-foot-7 power forward Jonathan Kuminga.

Jokic only played this iteration of the Warriors once — that’s to say, with Jimmy Butler — and cleared this line.

NBA prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 10/23/2025.

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