Category: NBA

In Monday’s late-night window, the Los Angeles Clippers host Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers.

The pregame narrative: Embiid hasn’t played enough to earn an all-star spot, but he’s scoring at an elite level right now. His points prop is the feature prediction of tonight’s +300 SGP.

Check out my same-game parlay 76ers vs. Clippers picks, featuring a prop bet on Tyrese Maxey.

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76ers vs. Clippers picks

SGP: Embiid over 28.5 points | Maxey over 6.5 assists | 76ers +5 (+300)

Embiid over 28.5 points (-114): Embiid seems like he’s all the way back as a scorer.

The two-time scoring champ has missed several games this season, which is unfortunately par for the course. But he just put together a hell of a month in January:

• 14 games
• 29.7 PPG
• 20+ points in every game
• 53.7 FG%
• 85.4 FT%

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Embiid has cashed this bet in seven straight games, punctuated by a 40-piece last time out.

He’s also playing huge minutes (34.1/game), and the only games he missed in January were on the front or back end of back-to-backs.

It wasn’t too long ago that Embiid’s points prop would sit in the low-30s on a nightly basis. He’s on a roll and well worth backing at this number.

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NBA SGP pick

Maxey over 6.5 assists (-132): If Embiid is going to keep scoring at will, who better to facilitate those buckets than Maxey?

We’ve seen some massive scoring outputs from the all-star guard, but they’ve been fewer and further between since Embiid stepped up his offensive game.

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• Maxey has gone over 6.5 assists in eight of his past nine games, averaging 8.0 assists in that span.

• On the season, Maxey is averaging 6.9 APG and is 27-19 vs. this prop.

This is a bar Maxey clears more often than not, and that should continue amid Embiid’s rise.

76ers ATS prediction

76ers +5 (-177): The Clippers were among the very best home teams in the NBA last year, going 32-12 in their inaugural season at Intuit Dome.

L.A.’s home-court advantage hasn’t been as prominent this season, leading to a 13-9 record for the Clips in Inglewood. On a back-to-back after a three-game road swing, this is a good spot to fade the home team.

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• Philadelphia has the NBA’s best ATS record on the road this season (14-6-0).

• The Sixers, who were off last night, are 9-5-0 ATS with a rest advantage.

• Back in November — without Embiid — the 76ers beat the Clippers in Philly, 110-108.

The Sixers have covered this number in seven of their past nine games, and I expect more of the same on Monday.

76ers vs. Clippers picks made at 12:25 p.m. on Feb. 2, 2026.

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It’s a light NBA slate on Monday, and I’m focusing on the Houston Rockets vs. Indiana Pacers matchup for two of my prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: In one of just three evening games, Indiana hosts a Houston squad that won’t have Kevin Durant. I’m fading Alperen Sengun against a lofty prop line while backing Andrew Nembhard to break through against a stout defence.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Feb. 2, featuring a prediction on Moussa Diabate from today’s 3 p.m. tip-off in Charlotte.

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NBA prop picks Feb. 2

Best bet: Nembhard over 7.5 assists (-124)

Nembhard’s season average is 7.5 assists, and given the difficulty of tonight’s matchup (vs. the Rockets), my first instinct was to fade.

But after a closer look at Nembhard’s recent assist output, I’ve flipped my stance.

Sure, the Rockets allow the second-fewest assists per game and rank fifth in defensive rating. But Nembhard is in the NBA’s elite class of passers right now, which makes this line attainable.

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• Over his past 12 games (since Jan. 2), Nembhard is averaging 14.8 potential assists per game. That accounts for all passes that lead directly to shots.

• In that span, only Cade Cunningham and Luka Doncic have more potential assists/game.

• Nembhard is averaging 9.4 assists over his past 12 games.

Again, it’s not an ideal matchup for the Aurora, Ontario native to do his thing. But he’s the only Indiana Pacer averaging north of 4.0 assists this season, and he’s ratcheted up the volume lately.

Key stat: Nembhard is 10-2 vs. this prop in his past 12 games, with at least nine assists in each of the overs.

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Best NBA picks

Diabate to record a double-double (+123): The Charlotte Hornets are on one right now, having just tied for the best point differential in a calendar month (+151) in NBA history.

It’s been a true team effort, and Diabate certainly deserves some of the credit.

The gangly centre averaged 9.8 points and 9.3 rebounds in January. And he posted a double-double in five of his past 11 games.

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Also, he’s playing close to 30 minutes per night now after coming off the bench consistently through late-December.

With a larger role and some recent success, now is the time to back Diabate. He’s set to face the New Orleans Pelicans this afternoon in an A+ matchup.

According to Fantasy Pros, the Pelicans allow the fifth-most points and rebounds to opposing centres.

NBA player prop predictions

Sengun under 40.5 points/rebounds/assists (-114): This line just seems too high for Sengun, who’s averaging 21.0 points, 9.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists (36.6 PRA).

It’s not that the Pacers are a particularly difficult defensive matchup. But Sengun often falls below this PRA total, and that’s the side I’d much prefer to be on.

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• Since returning from an ankle injury, Sengun has gone under 40.5 PRA in eight of 12 games (averaging 34.9 PRA).

• Overall this season, the under is 23-17 (57.5%), which exceeds the implied probability of this wager (53.3%).

Durant’s absence might put more on Sengun’s plate, but there are plenty of other Rockets who can chip in.

Excluding Durant, Sengun is one of five Houston players averaging more than 12.0 points and one of five averaging more than 4.5 rebounds.

NBA prop picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET on Feb. 2, 2026.

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With the NBA’s worst defensive team in town, the Toronto Raptors embark on a five-game homestand Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: The Utah Jazz have dropped nine of their past 10 games entering tonight’s matchup at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto is just 13-11 at home this season, but the team is a substantial 11-point favourite in this matchup.

Check out my Jazz vs. Raptors SGP predictions for Feb. 1, featuring Jusuf Nurkic, Scottie Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles.

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Jazz vs. Raptors SGP

Parlay: Nurkic +15 rebounds/assists | Barnes 8+ rebounds | Murray-Boyles over 2.5 assists (+310)

Nurkic 15+ rebounds/assists (-148): Nurkic is averaging 10.1 rebounds and 5.0 assists this season, putting him right on this number.

But that’s not an accurate depiction of what the veteran centre has been up to lately.

Nurkic, in his first year with the lowly Jazz, has become somewhat of a bargain-brand version of Nikola Jokic. The 6-foot-11, 290-pound centre is starting to move the ball a lot more from the middle of the halfcourt.

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Over his past 15 games, Nurkic is averaging 11.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists. He is 11-4 vs. this prop.

And the big man’s ceiling is quite high in both statistical categories. Just this month, he has as many as 18 rebounds and/or 14 assists in a given game.

Toronto is overwhelmingly athletic, but with Jakob Poeltl still sidelined, there’s no one remotely on Nurkic’s level in terms of size. He should be heavily involved for Utah.

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NBA SGP legs

Barnes 8+ rebounds (-230): With the aforementioned Poeltl out, Barnes should continue to be the Raptors’ primary rebounder. And with that in mind, this milestone is well within reach.

• Since Dec. 23, which marks the start of Poeltl’s extended absence, Barnes is 11-8 vs. this prop. He’s averaging 8.8 RPG in that span.

• More recently, Barnes has 8+ rebounds in five straight.

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Barnes has actually been Toronto’s top rebounder all season, hauling in 8.3 per game (Poeltl is at 7.7 RPG). So either way, it’s reasonable to expect him to cash this bet.

In a pair of matchups vs. the Jazz last season (both in March), Barnes went 2-0 vs. this prop while pulling down 22 total boards.

Murray-Boyles over 2.5 assists (-148): Utah allows the most points and assists in the NBA. And with Murray-Boyles taking on a more well-rounded role in Toronto’s offence, this should be a cinch.

CMB joined Toronto’s starting lineup at the beginning of January and has done well to embody the Raptors’ unselfish style of play.

In 11 games last month, Murray-Boyles averaged 3.7 APG and went 9-2 vs. this prop.

He has at least four assists in four of his past six games and has cashed this bet in seven straight. This simply isn’t a very high line for someone who typically plays 30-ish minutes and knows how to swing the ball.

Oh, and the A+ matchup doesn’t hurt, either.

Jazz vs. Raptors predictions made at 2:15 p.m. on Feb. 1, 2026.

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For the first time since their seven-game playoff series last spring, the Oklahoma City Thunder tangle with the Denver Nuggets on Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic is healthy again, which is great news for a Denver squad that impressively held serve in his absence. The Nuggets are in second in the Western Conference, merely 5.0 games behind a Thunder team that has been uncharacteristically shaky in recent weeks.

Check out my Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for Feb. 1, featuring Jokic and Isaiah Hartenstein.

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Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP

Parlay: Nuggets +5.5 | Jokic 35+ points/rebounds | Hartenstein 6+ rebounds (+310)

Nuggets +5.5 (+123): I’m a bit surprised to see the Nuggets laying 7.5 points at home tonight, and it’s nice to be able to tease this into a plus-money territory while leaving some cushion.

Aaron Gordon is out, but Jokic’s return more than makes up for that.

And it’s not like the Thunder have been playing defending-champion-calibre hoops lately.

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OKC is 2-5 ATS in its past seven games, with four outright losses as a favourite in that span. That includes home losses against the Pacers and Raptors while laying double-digit spreads.

The Nuggets went 7-3 ATS vs. the Thunder last year, and they covered a +5.5 spread in all four home games. Denver also just dominated a red-hot Los Angeles Clippers squad (122-109 win) last time out.

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NBA SGP legs

Jokic 35+ points/rebounds (-162): After a month on the shelf with a knee injury, Jokic made a triumphant return for Denver on Friday.

Here’s what he accomplished in just 24:32 of game time:

• 31 points
• 12 rebounds
• 5 assists
• 8-of-11 shooting
• 13-of-17 free-throw shooting

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Jokic’s shot volume isn’t always high, but he’s an expert at doing more with less. His 60.8/43.9/84.7 shooting splits speak for themselves.

OKC has allowed the sixth-most rebounds per game this season, so that’s another area in which the 284-pound centre should have an impact.

Jokic is 23-10 vs. this prop this season, and he went 8-2 vs. this prop when facing the Thunder last year.

Hartenstein 6+ rebounds (-335): Like Jokic, Hartenstein is only one game removed from a lengthy injury absence. He came off the bench in his return and will require some ramp-up time, but this rebounding milestone should be a safe play.

The ex-Knick is 23-2 vs. this prop. The only unders came in the game when he got hurt and his first game back.

Last time out, Hartenstein grabbed five rebounds in 18 minutes. He typically averages 10.2 rebounds in 26.5 minutes. A modest uptick in his time on the court should translate to at least one additional rebound.

In nine matchups vs. Denver last year, Hartenstein went 9-0 vs. this prop and averaged 8.8 RPG.

Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions made at 1 p.m. on Feb. 1, 2026.

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Kawhi Leonard is looking like an ageless wonder for the Los Angeles Clippers, and I think there’s a smash play with his name on it for Sunday night.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Kawhi has been huge for the Clippers during their midseason resurgence, and I’m expecting him to stuff the stat sheet again tonight. Elsewhere, expect the same from Josh Hart against the defensively inept Los Angeles Lakers.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Feb. 1, featuring a prediction on Dylan Harper.

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NBA prop picks Feb. 1

Best bet: Leonard over 30.5 points/rebounds/assists (-124)

I get that the Phoenix Suns, who rank fifth in defensive rating, are a quality opponent. But this PRA line seems way too low for Kawhi, and I’d take the over against any opponent right now.

• On the season, Leonard is averaging 27.7 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.5 assists. That equates to 37.3 PRA, which is obviously well north of tonight’s line.

• Since the start of December, Leonard is up to 28.6 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists (38.9 PRA).

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The 14-year veteran leads the Clippers in scoring, and he’s second in both rebounds and assists. Simply put, when he’s on the court, the Klaw has his hands on pretty much everything L.A. does.

His lone matchup against the Suns came all the way back in October, and it was yet another solid outing. He finished with 27 points (11-for-21 shooting), five rebounds and five assists in a blowout victory.

And again, I’m not even really thinking about the matchup. Kawhi has largely crushed this line, and I like his chances of doing so again.

Key stat: Kawhi is 20-4 vs. this line since the start of December.

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Best NBA picks

Harper over 9.5 points (-103): The San Antonio Spurs are playing on a back-to-back after a narrow loss to the Charlotte Hornets last night. I’m hoping that a lack of rest will translate to more evenly distributed minutes on Sunday.

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Harper was a star off the bench last night, dropping 20 points. He’s cashed this bet in back-to-back games while shooting 17 for 24 (70.8%) from the floor.

I’ll ride the hot hand in a matchup against the Orlando Magic, who allow the second-most points per game to opposing point guards (according to Fantasy Pros).

Harper doesn’t always play point, but that’s … besides the point, if you know what I mean. The 2025 lottery pick is 21-17 vs. this line and is playing great right now.

NBA player prop predictions

Hart over 25.5 points/rebounds/assists (-120): The Los Angeles Lakers aren’t exactly imposing on defence. They rank 25th in defensive rating, which is the worst among all teams in the playoff picture.

Hart, an ex-Laker, averages 25.2 PRA and should take advantage of this matchup.

In his past three games vs. L.A., since February 2023, Hart has put up 18.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 5.7 assists. He’s 3-0 vs. this prop in that span.

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Hart has 20+ points in back-to-back games and is 3-1 vs. this prop in his past four overall. It’s a good time to buy in on the scrappy, do-it-all small forward.

NBA prop picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET on Feb. 1, 2026.

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