Category: NBA

Two of the most exciting stars in the NBA will meet tonight, as Luka Doncic’s Los Angeles Lakers host Victor Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs.

The latest: Doncic has scored 40+ points in three of four games so far and will once again headline a Lakers squad that’s missing LeBron James. Wembanyama, meanwhile, has played as a more traditional big this season but could opt to attack the Lakers from deep.

Check out my Spurs vs. Lakers picks for Wednesday, Nov. 5, featuring Julian Champagnie.

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Spurs vs. Lakers picks

Best bet: Doncic under 32.5 points (-110)

Doncic has been on fire through four games, and I get that NBA fans (and bettors) might not want this run to end.

But that’s not how life works, and even a guy like Doncic isn’t going to average 41.3 points per game for a season.

Tonight’s matchup against San Antonio is a logical come-back-to-Earth game. The Spurs’ defence has been elite in the first couple of weeks:

• 1st in PPG
• 2nd in defensive rating
• 2nd in defensive rebound rate
• 3rd in blocks
• 4th in opponent FG%

Wembanyama, who leads the NBA in defensive rebounds and blocks per game, is certainly the key cog in all of this. But defence is played collectively, so I still think Doncic will be challenged even if he tries to dodge the Spurs’ 7-foot-4 superstar.

-> Check out tonight’s Spurs vs. Lakers prop markets

Also, avoiding Wembanyama in the offensive halfcourt is a lot easier said than done.

Wemby is staying home in the paint a lot more now than in past years, and with his length, that means he can challenge anything inside the perimeter on a consistent basis.

Doncic attempts 40% of his shots from mid-range, per Cleaning The Glass, which ranks in the 65th percentile. The Spurs allow the sixth-lowest FG% on mid-range shots.

Key stat: Doncic failed to hit the 30-point mark in any of his three matchups vs. the Spurs last season (and Wemby only played in one of those games).

-> Wager on Wednesday’s 11-game NBA slate

Wembanyama prop prediction

Wembanyama over 1.5 threes (-125): Wembanyama averaged 3.1 threes last year on a whopping 8.8 attempts. When he’s given the green light, he’s happy to let it fly.

His 3-point volume has been drastically scaled back this year (3.5 attempts/game), but I still think it’s too early to put a ton of stock into that.

-> Bet on Doncic and Wemby in Los Angeles!

Do I expect Wembanyama to return to nearly nine 3s attempted on a nightly basis? Certainly not. But somewhere in the range of five or six 3s wouldn’t surprise me.

• Wembanyama has attempted 5+ threes in three of his past four games.

• As a rookie in 2023-24, he averaged 5.5 attempted 3s per night.

Wembanyama went 2-0 vs. this prop against L.A. last year, and this year’s Lakers are yielding the seventh-most attempted 3s per game.

Champagnie over 1.5 threes (-130): Though he’s not a household name like Wembanyama, Champagnie comes in at almost the same price for the same prop market. Count me in.

• The undrafted wing attempts corner 3s on 41% of his shots, which is the highest rate in the NBA.

• L.A. allows the seventh-highest 3PT% on corner 3s (41.0%).

Last season, Champagnie went 3-1 vs. this prop when facing the Lakers. He averaged 6.5 attempted 3s per game.

He hasn’t gotten off to a great start from beyond the arc, mind you, but the 24-year-old has attempted at least four 3-pointers in four of his past five games.

Spurs vs. Lakers picks made at 11:36 a.m. ET on 11/05/2025.

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On the latter half of a back-to-back, the Los Angeles Clippers host the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

The latest: OKC is off to a 7-0 start and is favoured to stay perfect. L.A., meanwhile, is on a four-game ATS losing streak — with two of those losses coming straight up as the favourite.

See how Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and James Harden are featured in my Thunder vs. Clippers picks for Tuesday, Nov. 4.

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Thunder vs. Clippers picks

Best bet: Holmgren over 1.5 threes (-154)

While Victor Wembanyama has opted to play in the paint a lot more this season, there’s a lanky big man in Oklahoma City who’s taking the opposite approach.

It’s only been four games, but 7-foot-1 centre Chet Holmgren has bumped up his 3-point shot volume for the Thunder.

• After averaging 3.6 attempted 3s last season, Holmgren has attempted 5+ threes in every game so far.

• He’s shooting it well from deep, going 10-for-24 (41.7%) and cashing this bet in three of four games.

-> Bet on Thunder vs. Clippers prop markets

It seems counterintuitive for a big man to spend so much time on the outside, but Holmgren has the scoring touch to justify the move.

And if the shot volume stays roughly where it is, asking for a pair of 3s on any given night won’t seem unreasonable.

Holmgren attempts 39% of his shots from 3-point range, per Cleaning The Glass, which ranks in the 78th percentile in the league. He’s one of nine Thunder players averaging more than 4.0 attempted 3s, so it’s clearly a team-wide directive.

After missing the past three games due to a back injury, Holmgren did not appear on Tuesday’s injury report. He should be good to go in an encouraging matchup.

Key stat: The Clippers allow the fifth-most attempted 3s and the fifth-highest 3PT% in the NBA.

-> Wager on Tuesday’s six-game NBA slate

More OKC vs. L.A. props

Hartenstein over 19.5 points/rebounds (-130): This line seems a bit low to me, as Hartenstein and Holmgren have proven they can both thrive on the floor together.

• Hartenstein has 85 points/rebounds across four starts when Holmgren played this season. That equates to 21.3 PR per game.

• In his past five games, Hartenstein is 4-1 vs. this prop while averaging 13.0 points and 11.6 rebounds.

-> Bet on Holmgren and Hartenstein to shine in Los Angeles!

OKC won its past two games by a combined 50 points, and Hartenstein played fewer than 26 minutes in both blowouts — but he still cashed this PR line both times.

Ideally, tonight’s matchup is a bit tighter, and Hartenstein plays more in his typical sum of minutes (around 30). The Thunder are 8-point road favourites at Intuit Dome.

In his first year with OKC last season, Hartenstein went 2-0 vs. this prop when facing the Clippers.

Harden over 7.5 assists (-130): Harden had a great night last night for the Clips, scoring 29 points with 6-of-10 shooting from 3-point range.

And he still found time to dish out eight assists, too.

• The well-beared point guard is now 4-2 vs. this prop, tallying seven assists in one of the outlier games.

• OKC is a stout defensive squad that has allowed the second-fewest assists per game this season, but I’m not sure the team can do enough to slow Harden down. He had 17 assists in two matchups vs. the Thunder last year and cashed this bet both times.

Harden is giving himself plenty of opportunities to rack up assists, evidenced by his 14.3 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot) per game. That’s the seventh-most potential APG in the league.

Thunder vs. Clippers picks made at 2 p.m. ET on 11/04/2025.

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The Portland Trail Blazers are catching the Los Angeles Lakers on a back-to-back Monday, and that matchup has my attention for my favourite NBA prop bet.

Tonight’s NBA prop narrative: Portland’s Jrue Holiday is off to a great start as a passer, and he draws a nice matchup to keep that going tonight. In an all-Texas tussle down in Houston, look for Max Christie to feed off an ultra-efficient start as a scorer.

Check out my favourite NBA player prop predictions for Nov. 3, featuring Nikola Jokic.

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NBA prop predictions

Best bet: Holiday 8+ assists (-150)

In his age-35 season, Holiday is still an impact NBA player.

The veteran point guard is now on his fifth team, and so far he’s played as many minutes as anyone on Portland.

He also has more than twice as many assists as any other Blazer.

Is it likely that Holiday’s current 8.7 assists/game rate — which would be a career high — holds up? No, but Portland is counting on him to be their primary passer, so obtaining eight-or-so assists on a nightly basis isn’t far-fetched.

-> Bet on Lakers vs. Blazers prop markets at NorthStar Bets

Holiday is seventh in the NBA in potential assists/game (14.3), which denotes the number of passes a player makes that lead directly to a shot.

Next on the list among Portland players is Deni Avdija at 10.3 potential APG, and then it drops off to 5.5 (Blake Wesley).

There’s a clear pecking order with Holiday at the top.

Holiday is coming off a 13-assist game to move to 4-2 vs. this prop. He has at least six assists in every game, which is a nice floor to work from.

Key stat: Holiday’s opponents, the Lakers, have allowed the sixth-most assists to opposing PGs (10.15/game), per Fantasy Pros.

More prop picks

Jokic over 46.5 points/rebounds/assists (-130): Jokic averaged a triple-double last year for the first time, and somehow that wasn’t enough to help him earn a fourth MVP award.

Well, he’s on track to average a triple-double again, and he currently leads the NBA in rebounds and assists on a per-game basis.

• 20.4 PPG
• 14.4 RPG
• 10.8 APG
• Triple-double in 4 of 5 games

Though he’s only 1-4 vs. this PRA total, Jokic has at least 43 PRA in every game.

Jokic typically feasts against the Sacramento Kings, who currently have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA.

In his past five games vs. the Kings, Jokic has averaged 22.2/15.4/11.6 (47.6 PRA).

Christie over 10.5 points (-120): When will Christie’s superb efficiency lead to a greater shot volume?

The 22-year-old is shooting 53.3% from the floor through six games, going 16-for-32 from 3-point range in the process.

He plays big minutes (30.0 MPG) but is attempting fewer than eight shots per night.

-> Bet on Christie to clear his points total

Christie is 3-3 vs. this prop while scoring at least nine points in every game. He can’t possibly stay this efficient for long, but in the short term, I expect him to get a few more looks for the Dallas Mavericks.

Especially as the team hunts for offence with Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively sidelined.

NBA player prop predictions made at 11:50 a.m. ET on 11/03/25.

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