NBA Archives - Page 29 of 146

Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks Nov. 24: Donovan Mitchell should go off in Toronto

For the third time already this fall, the Toronto Raptors face the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The latest: Monday night’s matchup in Toronto is a back-to-back for both teams, and it’s a chance for the Raps to win their eighth straight game. Toronto is a modest home underdog despite winning twice as a road dog in Cleveland earlier this season.

Check out these Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks for the game on Nov. 24, featuring Donovan Mitchell and Brandon Ingram.

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Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks

Best bet: Mitchell over 29.5 points (-118)

Mitchell had what you might call an unethical 30-piece against the Raptors when he last faced them on Nov. 13:

31 points
7-of-18 shooting
15-of-17 free throws

When you shoot below 40.0% from the floor — including 2-for-9 from deep — you’re not supposed to put up that many points. But Mitchell found a way.

In five games since, the star shooting guard has had far more ethically-sourced production: 31.4 PPG on 54.8% shooting, with 6.0 free throw attempts per game.

-> Full Cavaliers vs. Raptors props at NorthStar Bets

You can’t expect 17 free throws from Mitchell again tonight, but the good news is that he tends to be a high-volume shooter anyway.

In November, he’s averaging 21.5 field goal attempts (fifth in the NBA).

And with 50.4/39.0/86.8 shooting split this month, he should keep on firing.

Playing on zero rest shouldn’t be a concern for Mitchell, given that he scored 29 and 35 points in two other back-to-backs this season.

Key stat: Mitchell is 10-6 vs. this points prop and is averaging 30.8 PPG so far.

-> Wager on Monday’s 10-game NBA slate

Additional NBA prop predictions

Ingram under 1.5 threes (-118): Ingram definitely knows how to score, and he’s been a valuable asset for the Raptors to this point. But 3-point shooting really isn’t his game.

In his first year with the Raptors, Ingram is shooting 29.6% from deep. That ranks third-worst among 100 players who average at least 4.0 attempted 3s and have played at least 10 games.

Ingram is 0-for-9 from 3-point range across two games vs. Cleveland this year.

Overall, Ingram has just 21 made 3s in 17 games. This under is 10-7.

-> Bet on Ingram and Mitchell here!

Given his beyond-the-arc goose egg against the Cavs so far, I wouldn’t expect a ton of 3s from Ingram tonight. And that would make sense on the Cleveland side, too.

The Cavaliers allow the second-fewest attempted 3s in the NBA (34.6).

Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET on Nov. 24, 2025.

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Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks Nov. 24: Donovan Mitchell should go off in Toronto

For the third time already this fall, the Toronto Raptors face the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The latest: Monday night’s matchup in Toronto is a back-to-back for both teams, and it’s a chance for the Raps to win their eighth straight game. Toronto is a modest home underdog despite winning twice as a road dog in Cleveland earlier this season.

Check out these Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks for the game on Nov. 24, featuring Donovan Mitchell and Brandon Ingram.

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Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks

Best bet: Mitchell over 29.5 points (-112)

Mitchell had what you might call an unethical 30-piece against the Raptors when he last faced them on Nov. 13:

31 points
7-of-18 shooting
15-of-17 free throws

When you shoot below 40.0% from the floor — including 2-for-9 from deep — you’re not supposed to put up that many points. But Mitchell found a way.

In five games since, the star shooting guard has had far more ethically-sourced production: 31.4 PPG on 54.8% shooting, with 6.0 free throw attempts per game.

-> Full Cavaliers vs. Raptors props at NorthStar Bets

You can’t expect 17 free throws from Mitchell again tonight, but the good news is that he tends to be a high-volume shooter anyway.

In November, he’s averaging 21.5 field goal attempts (fifth in the NBA).

And with 50.4/39.0/86.8 shooting split this month, he should keep on firing.

Playing on zero rest shouldn’t be a concern for Mitchell, given that he scored 29 and 35 points in two other back-to-backs this season.

Key stat: Mitchell is 10-6 vs. this points prop and is averaging 30.8 PPG so far.

Embed: #121535

-> Wager on Monday’s 10-game NBA slate

Additional NBA prop predictions

Ingram under 1.5 threes (-117): Ingram definitely knows how to score, and he’s been a valuable asset for the Raptors to this point. But 3-point shooting really isn’t his game.

In his first year with the Raptors, Ingram is shooting 29.6% from deep. That ranks third-worst among 100 players who average at least 4.0 attempted 3s and have played at least 10 games.

Ingram is 0-for-9 from 3-point range across two games vs. Cleveland this year.

Overall, Ingram has just 21 made 3s in 17 games. This under is 10-7.

-> Bet on Ingram and Mitchell here!

Given his beyond-the-arc goose egg against the Cavs so far, I wouldn’t expect a ton of 3s from Ingram tonight. And that would make sense on the Cleveland side, too.

The Cavaliers allow the second-fewest attempted 3s in the NBA (34.6).

Cavaliers vs. Raptors prop picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET on Nov. 24, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 24: Donovan Clingan, Jamal Murray have compelling matchups

I’m backing Jamal Murray and a pair of bigs on Monday night in the NBA prop market.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Murray hasn’t had a ton of huge scoring outputs this season, but his perimeter shooting has ticked up lately, and he has an exploitable matchup tonight. Elsewhere, Alperen Sengun and Donovan Clingan should take advantage of key absences in their games.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 24.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 24

Best bet: Clingan over 9.5 rebounds (-130)

The Giannis-sized absence in tonight’s Blazers/Bucks game should be particularly notable when Clingan is around the ball.

If both players were healthy, there’d surely be a ton of low-post battles for rebounds between the big men. But with Giannis sitting out due to a groin strain, I expect that battle to be rather one-sided.

Yes, the Bucks have other bigs, led by the 6-foot-11 Myles Turner and the 6-foot-10 Bobby Portis. But neither of those players is known for grabbing a boatload of boards.

Turner and Portis average 6.4 rebounds and 5.8 rebounds, respectively. They’ve played 17 games apiece and have just one 10-rebound performance between the two of them.

-> Bet on Donovan Clingan vs. the Bucks tonight!

Clingan, at 7-foot-2 and 280 pounds, will have the size advantage over everyone tonight. Giannis would’ve had the athleticism advantage, but we don’t have to worry about that.

Just last week, Clingan exploded for 21 rebounds against the Chicago Bulls. He’s now 5-2 vs. this prop in his past seven games while averaging 11.4 RPG.

Giannis has missed four games so far, and at least one opposing player has 10+ rebounds in three of those four games. Clingan should be next up.

Key stat: Clingan has a 57.7% success rate on contested rebounds, which ranks ninth out of 379 players (min. five games played), per NBA.com.

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Best NBA picks

Sengun over 24.5 points (-114): The Phoenix Suns seem like a good matchup for Kevin Durant, given his affinity for midrange shots. With Durant (personal) out tonight, Sengun seems like the logical player to pick up the slack.

According to Cleaning The Glass, the Suns allow the 10th-most midrange shots and the 12th-highest FG% from the midrange.

Sengun attempts 46% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 96th percentile among centres.

-> Bet on Monday’s 10-game NBA slate

Durant leads the Rockets in shot attempts (17.1/game), and Sengun sits closely behind him (16.6/game). So it makes sense to expect Sengun’s shot volume to climb on Monday.

The Turkish centre had a relatively quiet showing last time out against Nikola Jokic’s Denver Nuggets, but he’d cashed this bet in three straight games before that.

NBA player prop predictions

Murray over 23.5 points (-108): Murray is only 4-11 vs. this points prop this season, which makes this seem like a tough sell. But he’s been oh-so-close a bunch of times.

The Kitchener, Ontario native has finished with 22 or 23 points in six of the 11 unders. With the right matchup, this point total is one he can absolutely exceed.

-> Back Kitchener’s Jamal Murray against Memphis on Monday!

Murray will get such a matchup tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies, who allow the fourth-most points to opposing point guards (28.84), per Fantasy Pros.

The last time Murray played at Memphis, which was November of last season, he shot 5-for-10 from 3-point range en route to scoring 27 points.

The ninth-year vet is heating up from deep again, posting a 40.7 3PT% over his past eight games.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 24, 2025.

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Nets vs. Raptors prop picks Nov. 23: Back Immanuel Quickley and Nic Claxton

The Toronto Raptors, in search of a seventh straight win, host the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday.

The latest: Toronto has won 10 of its last 11 games and kicked off its current winning streak by beating the Nets in Brooklyn. The Raptors have the conference’s top net rating in December and are double-digit favourites today.

Check out these Nets vs. Raptors prop picks for the game on Nov. 23, featuring Immanuel Quickley and Nic Claxton.

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Nets vs. Raptors prop picks

Best bet: Quickley over 15.5 points (-125)

Let’s take a quick dive into Toronto’s November.

The Raptors are 9-1 this month with the fifth-best offensive rating (121.3).

Six different players are averaging double-digit points, including Quickley (17.5).

Toronto is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home, scoring 123.8 PPG.

In other words, Darko Rajakovic has the Raps clicking. There are plenty of mouths to feed on offence, which is a coach’s dream, but can make things difficult to handicap.

-> Full Nets vs. Raptors props at NorthStar Bets

That said, I think Quickley has a great chance of being the primary scorer tonight.

When Toronto beat Brooklyn on Nov. 11, all five starters scored double-digits in typical fashion. Quickley was a standout, though, dropping 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting.

The guard has now scored 15-plus points in seven of his last eight games, clearing this line six times.

In that span, he’s let it fly from deep, averaging 3.3 threes on 7.4 attempts per game (44.8%). Having a reliable 3-point stroke will be important against a Nets team with the third-worst perimeter defence in the NBA.

Key stat: Quickley has scored 20+ points in all four games vs. Brooklyn since joining the Raptors.

-> Wager on Sunday’s 8-game NBA slate

Additional NBA prop predictions

Claxton over 8.5 rebounds (-118): Jakob Poeltl (rest) is out tonight, leaving Toronto susceptible on the glass.

The Raps are loaded with position-agnostic players like Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett who can slide up or down the No. 2-4 spots — but Poeltl is a clear-cut centre.

Without him, there isn’t a player close to Claxton in size.

-> Bet on Barrett and Poeltl here!

Standing at 6-foot-11, I like the centre’s chances of performing above his 7.5 rebounds/game baseline.

Claxton has logged 11 rebounds in consecutive games and had eight boards against the Raptors earlier this month, with Poeltl playing.

Wizards vs. Raptors prop bets made at 9:28 a.m. ET on Nov. 23, 2025.

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Nets vs. Raptors prop picks Nov. 23: Back Immanuel Quickley and Nic Claxton

The Toronto Raptors, in search of a seventh straight win, host the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday.

The latest: Toronto has won 10 of its last 11 games and kicked off its current winning streak by beating the Nets in Brooklyn. The Raptors have the conference’s top net rating in December and are double-digit favourites today.

Check out these Nets vs. Raptors prop picks for the game on Nov. 23, featuring Immanuel Quickley and Nic Claxton.

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Nets vs. Raptors prop picks

Best bet: Quickley over 15.5 points (-122)

Let’s take a quick dive into Toronto’s November.

The Raptors are 9-1 this month with the fifth-best offensive rating (121.3).

Six different players are averaging double-digit points, including Quickley (17.5).

Toronto is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home, scoring 123.8 PPG.

In other words, Darko Rajakovic has the Raps clicking. There are plenty of mouths to feed on offence, which is a coach’s dream, but can make things difficult to handicap.

-> Full Nets vs. Raptors props at NorthStar Bets

That said, I think Quickley has a great chance of being the primary scorer tonight.

When Toronto beat Brooklyn on Nov. 11, all five starters scored double-digits in typical fashion. Quickley was a standout, though, dropping 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting.

The guard has now scored 15-plus points in seven of his last eight games, clearing this line six times.

In that span, he’s let it fly from deep, averaging 3.3 threes on 7.4 attempts per game (44.8%). Having a reliable 3-point stroke will be important against a Nets team with the third-worst perimeter defence in the NBA.

Key stat: Quickley has scored 20+ points in all four games vs. Brooklyn since joining the Raptors.

Embed: #121501

-> Wager on Sunday’s 8-game NBA slate

Additional NBA prop predictions

Claxton over 8.5 rebounds (-118): Jakob Poeltl (rest) is out tonight, leaving Toronto susceptible on the glass.

The Raps are loaded with position-agnostic players like Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett who can slide up or down the No. 2-4 spots — but Poeltl is a clear-cut centre.

Without him, there isn’t a player close to Claxton in size.

-> Bet on Barrett and Poeltl here!

Standing at 6-foot-11, I like the centre’s chances of performing above his 7.5 rebounds/game baseline.

Claxton has logged 11 rebounds in consecutive games and had eight boards against the Raptors earlier this month, with Poeltl playing.

Wizards vs. Raptors prop bets made at 9:28 a.m. ET on Nov. 23, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 23: Back Luka Doncic, fade James Harden on Sunday

Sunday’s NBA prop picks feature a fade on the league’s hottest player, James Harden.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Harden has been the lone bright spot on a Los Angeles Clippers team which has lost eight of its last 10 games. But he’s worth fading in Kawhi Leonard’s expected return against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 23, featuring picks on Mark Williams and Luka Doncic.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 23

Best bet: Harden under 24.5 points (-125)

Right now, it seems like Harden is the only guy standing between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the potential No. 1 overall pick.

OKC has L.A.’s first-rounder this year, and the Clippers are an outright mess sans The Beard.

Harden is averaging 31.7 PPG this month and scored a season-high 55 points last night. He’s gone over this line in five straight games, so why fade him?

-> Fade James Harden vs. the Cavaliers tonight!

The 36-year-old guard has done everything for L.A., which will eventually wear on him:

Harden shot inefficiently in two back-to-backs so far (7-of-25 vs. PHI; 7-of-17 vs. OKC).

Last year, Harden shot 39.0% from the field and 30.0% from deep in 12 games with no rest.

On top of that, Leonard is expected to return from a nine-game injury absence. That will take some pressure off Harden to score, allowing him to facilitate more.

Harden is averaging 32.0 points without Leonard and 23.0 points with him, taking six fewer shots per game when the Claw is in the lineup.

Cleveland is also holding opposing point guards to the fifth-fewest PPG, per Fantasy Pros. This seems like a logical night for some regression.

Key stat: Harden is 0-4 against this line vs. the Cavs since joining L.A.

Best NBA picks

Williams over 8.5 rebounds (-125): Spoiler alert: The San Antonio Spurs are a much worse rebounding team without Victor Wembanyama in the mix.

With Wembanyama: 4th in rebounding rate, 7th in offensive rebounding rate
Without Wembanyama: 23rd in rebounding rate, 29th in offensive rebounding rate

Williams is a big body on a solid Phoenix Suns team, and I expect him to be active on the glass this evening.

The 7-foot-1, 240-pound centre is averaging 8.2 rebounds this year and put up 10.2 last year with the Charlotte Hornets.

-> Bet on Sunday’s 8-game NBA slate

He doesn’t play as much as I would like — just 25.2 minutes/game — but should make the most of those opportunities against a middling Spurs lineup.

NBA player prop predictions

Doncic 4+ threes (-106): The Los Angeles Lakers might have LeBron James back in the mix, but everyone knows Doncic is the captain now.

The slimmed-down Slovenian has been on a tear this year, leading the league in scoring (34.6 PPG) while ranking second in 3-point volume (10.9 attempted 3s/game).

Doncic hasn’t been very efficient from deep, but that doesn’t matter to me.

-> Back Doncic against Utah on Sunday!

Doncic is 6-5 against this line overall, going 2-for-10 from deep against the Utah Jazz, tonight’s opponent, on Thursday.

Utah has the sixth-worst perimeter defence in basketball, so expect a better performance.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 23, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 23: Back Luka Doncic, fade James Harden on Sunday

Sunday’s NBA prop picks feature a fade on the league’s hottest player, James Harden.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Harden has been the lone bright spot on a Los Angeles Clippers team which has lost eight of its last 10 games. But he’s worth fading in Kawhi Leonard’s expected return against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 23, featuring picks on Mark Williams and Luka Doncic.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 23

Best bet: Harden under 24.5 points (-125)

Right now, it seems like Harden is the only guy standing between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the potential No. 1 overall pick.

OKC has L.A.’s first-rounder this year, and the Clippers are an outright mess sans The Beard.

Harden is averaging 31.7 PPG this month and scored a season-high 55 points last night. He’s gone over this line in five straight games, so why fade him?

-> Fade James Harden vs. the Cavaliers tonight!

The 36-year-old guard has done everything for L.A., which will eventually wear on him:

Harden shot inefficiently in two back-to-backs so far (7-of-25 vs. PHI; 7-of-17 vs. OKC).

Last year, Harden shot 39.0% from the field and 30.0% from deep in 12 games with no rest.

On top of that, Leonard is expected to return from a nine-game injury absence. That will take some pressure off Harden to score, allowing him to facilitate more.

Harden is averaging 32.0 points without Leonard and 23.0 points with him, taking six fewer shots per game when the Claw is in the lineup.

Cleveland is also holding opposing point guards to the fifth-fewest PPG, per Fantasy Pros. This seems like a logical night for some regression.

Key stat: Harden is 0-4 against this line vs. the Cavs since joining L.A.

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Best NBA picks

Williams over 8.5 rebounds (-114): Spoiler alert: The San Antonio Spurs are a much worse rebounding team without Victor Wembanyama in the mix.

With Wembanyama: 4th in rebounding rate, 7th in offensive rebounding rate
Without Wembanyama: 23rd in rebounding rate, 29th in offensive rebounding rate

Williams is a big body on a solid Phoenix Suns team, and I expect him to be active on the glass this evening.

The 7-foot-1, 240-pound centre is averaging 8.2 rebounds this year and put up 10.2 last year with the Charlotte Hornets.

-> Bet on Sunday’s 8-game NBA slate

He doesn’t play as much as I would like — just 25.2 minutes/game — but should make the most of those opportunities against a middling Spurs lineup.

NBA player prop predictions

Doncic 4+ threes (+100): The Los Angeles Lakers might have LeBron James back in the mix, but everyone knows Doncic is the captain now.

The slimmed-down Slovenian has been on a tear this year, leading the league in scoring (34.6 PPG) while ranking second in 3-point volume (10.9 attempted 3s/game).

Doncic hasn’t been very efficient from deep, but that doesn’t matter to me.

-> Back Doncic against Utah on Sunday!

Doncic is 6-5 against this line overall, going 2-for-10 from deep against the Utah Jazz, tonight’s opponent, on Thursday.

Utah has the sixth-worst perimeter defence in basketball, so expect a better performance.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 23, 2025.

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Lakers vs. Jazz SGP predictions Nov. 23: Bet overs for Jusuf Nurkic, LeBron James in +285 ticket

The Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz meet in an intriguing primetime matchup on Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: The Lakers look like a legitimate contender, entering tonight’s contest on a three-game winning streak. The Jazz, meanwhile, have lost back-to-back games, including a loss to L.A. earlier this week.

Check out my Lakers vs. Jazz SGP predictions for Nov. 23, featuring Jusuf Nurkic and LeBron James.

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Lakers vs. Jazz predictions

Parlay: Nurkic 9+ points | James 6+ rebounds | Over 231.5 points (+285)

Nurkic 9+ points (-132): This isn’t a line Nurkic beats often.

The centre has only gone over 8.5 points in five of 15 games this season, but there’s reason to believe he’ll do it today:

Nurkic had 10 points against the Lakers earlier this week.

Nurkic has topped this mark in three of his last five games.

The recent uptick in points isn’t by chance, either. Nurkic is getting more minutes for the Jazz.

-> Build your Lakers vs. Jazz SGP at NorthStar Bets

Nurkic is averaging 28.8 minutes per game across his last six outings. He was only averaging 21.2 minutes per game through the first nine games of the season.

I’ll gladly back Nurkic to have another solid point performance against the Lakers.

NBA SGP legs

James 6+ rebounds (-130): James is back, and there doesn’t seem to be any restrictions on his usage.

The King played over 29 minutes in his season debut, totalling 11 points, 12 assists and three rebounds against the Jazz.

This rebound number seems low for James, who has consistently topped this mark throughout his career.

-> Back LeBron James on Sunday

James has averaged more than 7.0 rebounds in each of his last 10 seasons, averaging 8.0 per game during that stretch.

After a disappointing rebounding performance on Tuesday, bet on James to bounce back.

Over 231.5 points (-345): If Tuesday’s game was any indication, this over should cash with ease.

The two combined for 266 points in a 140-126 Lakers win. Similar results should be expected again on Sunday.

Los Angeles is tied for the third-best over rate in the NBA (67%).

Utah isn’t far behind, topping the total in 60% of its matchups.

The over on this total has cashed in seven consecutive Jazz contests. Naturally, they tend to play to the over as they rank a respectable 14th in points per game (118.9), but 29th in points against per outing.

Lakers vs. Jazz SGP made at 10:05 a.m. ET on Nov. 23, 2025.

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Kings vs. Nuggets SGP predictions Nov. 22: Take overs for Nikola Jokic, Keegan Murray in +390 same-game parlay

The Denver Nuggets return home after beating the Houston Rockets in a thriller on Friday.

The pregame narrative: They’ll play the banged-up Sacramento Kings on Saturday, and Denver is favoured to win by double-digit points. I’ll back the home side to cover a teased-down spread behind a big performance from Nikola Jokic on the glass.

Check out my Kings vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for Nov. 22, featuring Jokic and Keegan Murray.

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Kings vs. Nuggets predictions

Parlay: Jokic 12+ rebounds | Murray over 10.5 points | Nuggets -8.5 (+390)

Jokic 12+ rebounds (-150): Jokic should feast against the Kings without Domantas Sabonis.

Sacramento has struggled to contain centres this season, allowing the fifth-most rebounds to the position (16.21), per Fantasy Pros.

When the Nuggets played the Kings on Nov. 11, Jokic finished with 15 rebounds.

-> Build your Kings vs. Nuggets SGP at NorthStar Bets

Sacramento doesn’t have much depth at centre. Drew Eubanks and Precious Achiuwa are the bigs that the Kings have used to fill Sabonis’ role.

Jokic should dominate those two, leading to another monster rebounding performance.

He is averaging 13.0 rebounds and is 11-4 against this line.

NBA SGP legs

Murray over 10.5 points (-130): Murray made his season debut last game, playing a healthy 33 minutes.

He scored 11 points on 5-of-13 shooting while hitting just one 3-pointer on six attempts.

So it looks like that’s going to be close to his floor as a scorer moving forward.

The Kings need all the help they can get, which gives me confidence they’ll continue to give Murray a lot of looks.

If he takes a handful of 3s and double-digit shots again, he won’t need to be super effective to surpass this modest total.

-> Back Nikola Jokic and Keegan Murray on Saturday

Like I mentioned before, the Kings are severely lacking frontcourt depth. Without Sabonis, Murray is the best big man they have, and it looks like there are no restrictions on his minutes.

Nuggets -8.5 (-177): The Nuggets earned a hard-fought win over the Rockets in the NBA Cup on Friday, but the rest disadvantage isn’t enough to deter me from taking them to win.

Sacramento has lost eight straight, while failing to cover this spread a single time during the drought.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 12-3 and 9-1 in their last 10 games.

They are a special team that is well-conditioned. They are 2-0 with zero days’ rest this season, winning each game by 7+ points.

At home, I’m confident the Nuggets can outperform the struggling Kings, even with no rest.

Kings vs. Nuggets SGP made at 11:32 a.m. ET Nov. 22, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 22: Jalen Johnson, DeMar DeRozan should both come up big on Saturday

Jalen Johnson has been exactly what the Atlanta Hawks have needed this month, and I’m backing him to continue balling out on Saturday night.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Johnson and the Hawks are on the road vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank 26th in defensive rating. Later on, look for DeMar DeRozan to have a significant role for the Sacramento Kings.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 22, featuring a fade on Memphis Grizzlies shooting guard Jaylen Wells.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 22

Best bet: Wells under 1.5 threes (-118)

Wells, a second-year shooting guard, has attempted 5.2 threes per game this year. That’s the most among Grizzlies players.

But just because you shoot ’em, it doesn’t mean they’re going to go in. And Wells’ miserable efficiency so far is a big reason why I like this under.

-> Bet on Saturday’s 7-game NBA slate

Wells has shot 24-for-83 (28.9%) from deep so far.

Among players who’ve appeared in at least five games and are averaging at least 5.0 attempted 3s, Wells’ 3PT% ranks 89th out of 95.

Wells went over this 3s total in back-to-back games to start the season … but he’s hit the under in 10 of 14 games since.

And though he could burn me with an inefficient, high-volume shooting spree beyond the arc, things aren’t trending that way. He’s averaging 4.4 attempts this month, so there’s been some regression from his October volume (6.5 3PA).

Also, Wells’ matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a perfect one to fade the shooting guard in.

The Mavs have allowed the fewest 3s per game in the NBA this season (11.4) on the fifth-lowest 3PT% (32.8).

Key stat: Dallas allows the fifth-fewest 3s to opposing SGs, according to Fantasy Pros.

Best NBA picks

DeRozan over 17.5 points (-118): The Denver Nuggets are one of the NBA’s best defensive teams — and best teams overall — but this is still a number DeRozan should be able to clear.

Back on Remembrance Day, the ex-Raptor scored 18 points on a team-high 15 shots for the Kings. And that was while playing alongside Domantas Sabonis, who went 8-for-12 from the floor.

-> Bet on ex-Raptor DeMar DeRozan vs. the Nuggets tonight!

Sabonis (knee) is out right now, which should clear the runway for DeRozan to take at least as many shots as last time.

In five games this calendar year, DeRozan is 5-0 vs. this points prop when facing the Nuggets. He’s averaging 23.6 PPG on 21.2 field goal attempts.

DeRozan is also 11-5 vs. this prop so far this season.

NBA player prop predictions

Johnson over 22.5 points (-130): Johnson has really taken ownership of the Hawks’ offence in the absence of Trae Young, and things are going quite well.

Young has missed each of Atlanta’s 11 games from Halloween onward, and the team is 7-4 in that span. Johnson has averaged 23.0 PPG in that time on 58.1/.45.9/78.8 shooting splits.

-> See tonight’s NBA prop markets

Johnson’s past five games have been particularly stellar:

26.2 PPG
61.3 FG%
59.1 3PT%
38+ minutes in 4 of 5

Oh, and he’s averaging 11.6 rebounds and 9.0 assists in those five games, too.

Johnson’s do-it-all profile justifies his huge minutes totals, and Atlanta should continue leaning on him to drive the offence.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 22, 2025.

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