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Heat vs. Magic NBA Cup SGP Dec. 9: Bet on Jaquez to thrive, Miami to cover alt spread

The opening matchup in Tuesday’s NBA Cup doubleheader is an all-Florida battle between the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat.

The pregame narrative: This will be the third meeting in Orlando between these teams already, and the Magic won the first two. Tonight’s game is a pick’em with Franz Wagner (ankle) ruled out for the home team.

Check out my +390 Heat vs. Magic SGP predictions for Dec. 9, featuring prop bets on Jaime Jaquez and Paolo Banchero.

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Heat vs. Magic SGP

Parlay: Jaquez 10+ points | Banchero 20+ points | Heat +4.5 (+390)

Jaquez 10+ points (-167): After receiving Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year votes two seasons ago, Jaquez took a step back as a scorer in 2024-25.

But the third-year forward has taken two steps forward so far this season.

Jaquez has cut down on his 3-point shooting to focus on inside shots that suit him better. He’s posting career-high numbers in shot attempts, free throw attempts and FG%.

-> Build your own Heat vs. Magic SGP at NorthStar Bets

This would be a lot of juice to bet as a straight wager, but it still seems fairly playable based on what should be expected of him. Jaquez is averaging 15.8 PPG, after all.

The former UCLA Bruin is 20-3 vs. this scoring milestone, cashing it in both previous matchups vs. the Magic (29 combined points in those games).

NBA SGP legs

Banchero 20+ points (-104): Wagner, who leads the Magic in shot attempts and points, suffered an ankle sprain last time out and is expected to miss multiple weeks.

Naturally, some players will have to step up and shoulder a greater offensive workload. Banchero is a prime candidate to do that.

-> Wager on Banchero & Jaquez’s prop markets now!

In 17 career games without Wagner, Banchero has averaged 22.9 points on 19.3 shots. He is 14-3 vs. this milestone.

Despite playing alongside Wagner in all 14 of his games this year, Banchero is averaging 20.4 PPG and is 9-5 vs. this milestone.

A 20-point output is already well within Banchero’s reach, and now he’ll have the opportunity to reach that without Orlando’s most active shooter. Count me in.

Heat +4.5 (-210): Miami is 0-2 vs. Orlando this season, but those two losses came by a combined five points.

The Heat are now 4-0 ATS in their past four matchups against the Magic, and I think this is a number Miami should absolutely cover tonight.

Orlando is on a four-game ATS losing skid and is just 11-13 ATS on the season. Miami, meanwhile, is 14-10 ATS.

-> Check out full NBA Cup betting markets for tonight

Miami and Orlando are both 14-10 straight up, and they’re both top-10 in net rating. In a matchup that even, I feel good about picking a side to bank some points with.

And part of my calculus for picking the Heat is the fact that Wagner will sit tonight. Miami should at least be able to keep this one close, as it did in its two previous head-to-head matchups.

Heat vs. Magic predictions made at 11:45 a.m. ET on Dec. 9, 2025.

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Knicks vs. Raptors NBA Cup predictions Dec. 9: Fade Brunson but back New York to cover in quarterfinals

The NBA Cup returns to Toronto on Tuesday night, as the Raptors host the New York Knicks in the quarterfinals.

The latest: Toronto is 1-5 straight up in its past six games and 1-8 ATS in its past seven. After getting blown out by New York on the road recently, the Raptors are unsurprisingly home underdogs at Scotiabank Arena.

Check out these Knicks vs. Raptors predictions for the game on Dec. 9, featuring a prop bet on Jalen Brunson.

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Knicks vs. Raptors predictions

Best bet: Knicks -4.5 (-110)

The Raptors are coming back to Earth after taking off on a rocket ship to open the season.

Over the past two weeks, Toronto has been on a seven-game ATS losing streak.

The team is 2-5 SU in that span with a -8.5 net rating (26th in the NBA). At home, the Raps have lost three in a row.

Toronto has failed to cover a +4.5 spread in four of its past six games — and it was favoured in two of those.

-> Full Knicks vs. Raptors props at NorthStar Bets

In the same two-week span that the Raptors have been slumping, the Knicks have been surging.

Since Nov. 25, New York is 6-1 SU and ATS. The team also has the No. 1 net rating in that time (+15.2).

Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) is questionable to play tonight after missing Sunday’s game. But he did practice on Monday, which is a positive sign that he’ll be able to return.

New York dusted Toronto, 116-94, at Madison Square Garden when they squared off at the end of November. Since December 2023, the Knicks are 8-1 ATS (9-0 SU) vs. the Raptors.

The Knicks covered this spread vs. the Magic on Sunday with KAT, and I think they’ll do it again whether or not the big man plays.

Key stat: Toronto has the NBA’s worst true shooting percentage and the sixth-worst turnover rate in the past two weeks.

-> Wager on Tuesday’s NBA Cup doubleheader

Additional NBA prop predictions

Brunson under 2.5 threes (-104): Brunson doesn’t have to have a big night from beyond the arc for the Knicks to win by margin.

After all, he went 1-for-6 from 3-point land in New York’s 22-point win over Toronto less than two weeks ago.

-> Fade Jalen Brunson from 3-point range vs. the Raptors

Brunson has gone under this 3s total in five of his past seven games. He’s shooting 34.0% from deep in that span, which isn’t atrocious, but he’s also only attempting 6.7 threes per night.

Toronto is allowing the third-lowest 3PT% in the NBA (33.3), as well as the seventh-fewest makes.

In his past four games against the Raptors, Brunson is 4-for-22 from deep. This under cashed in all four of those matchups.

Knicks vs. Raptors prop picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on Dec. 9, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 8: Bet on Derik Queen and DeMar DeRozan on Monday

I’ve got a prop recommendation from two of Monday’s three NBA games.

Today’s NBA props narrative: New Orleans Pelicans rookie Derik Queen can stuff the stat sheet and has a plus matchup against the San Antonio Spurs. Elsewhere, look for DeMar DeRozan to do damage against the floundering Indiana Pacers.

Check out my plays in the best NBA prop picks for Dec. 8.

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NBA prop picks: Dec. 8

Best bet: Queen over 24.5 PRA (-110)

Queen is having a solid rookie campaign and has been a reliable contributor since his insertion into the starting lineup on Nov. 16:

The No. 13 overall pick is averaging 13.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists (24.9 PRA) as a starter.

He’s recorded 20+ PRA in 10 of 12 games in that span, giving us a solid floor to work with.

-> See full betting markets for Monday’s NBA slate

The do-it-all centre, nicknamed “Baby Jokic” on Basketball Reference, has only cleared this line in five games as a starter. But he has had a pretty tough schedule, and some standout performances mixed in, too.

Nov. 19 at Nuggets: 30 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists
Nov. 20 at Mavericks: 20 points, 7 rebounds, 11 assists
Dec. 2 vs. Timberwolves: 21 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists

Tonight’s matchup against the Victor Wembanyama-less Spurs shapes up to be a favourable one.

San Antonio is 24th in rebounding rate and 20th in defensive rating since Wembanyama’s injury. It is also allowing the third-most assists per game to opposing centres in the last 15 days, according to Fantasy Pros.

The Spurs’ backup centre, Luke Kornet, is questionable to play with an ankle injury.

Queen should be able to use his size to score in the paint, and his passing ability to rack up assists.

Key stat: Queen is averaging 25.3 PRA in December.

Best NBA picks

DeRozan over 19.5 points (-106): DeRozan is what I like to call an “ethical bucket getter.”

The veteran forward does a ton of damage in the mid-range and isn’t overly reliable on free throws to fill the basket.

He’s sitting at 17.9 PPG at the moment, but has averaged north of 20.0 PPG in 12 seasons prior.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on DeRozan against the Kings!

This should be the perfect matchup for DeRozan to crack the 20-point milestone and then some.

The Pacers have the third-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (48.4%), according to Cleaning the Glass.

Indiana also plays at the 10th-fastest pace (101.6 possessions per 48 minutes), per NBA.com.

Among forwards, DeRozan has ranked in the 100th percentile for mid-range shot frequency in each of the last seven seasons. He’s currently taking 69% of his shots from that area of the court and converting at a 49% clip.

NBA prop picks made at 3 p.m. ET on Dec. 8, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 8: Bet on Derik Queen, Grayson Allen and DeMar DeRozan on Monday

I’ve got a prop recommendation from each of Monday’s three NBA games.

Today’s NBA props narrative: New Orleans Pelicans rookie Derik Queen can stuff the stat sheet and has a plus matchup against the San Antonio Spurs. Elsewhere, look for DeMar DeRozan to do damage against the floundering Indiana Pacers.

Check out my plays in the best NBA prop picks for Dec. 8, featuring a prediction on Grayson Allen.

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NBA prop picks: Dec. 8

Best bet: Queen over 24.5 PRA (-109)

Queen is having a solid rookie campaign and has been a reliable contributor since his insertion into the starting lineup on Nov. 16:

The No. 13 overall pick is averaging 13.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists (24.9 PRA) as a starter.

He’s recorded 20+ PRA in 10 of 12 games in that span, giving us a solid floor to work with.

-> See full betting markets for Monday’s NBA slate

The do-it-all centre, nicknamed “Baby Jokic” on Basketball Reference, has only cleared this line in five games as a starter. But he has had a pretty tough schedule, and some standout performances mixed in, too.

Nov. 19 at Nuggets: 30 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists
Nov. 20 at Mavericks: 20 points, 7 rebounds, 11 assists
Dec. 2 vs. Timberwolves: 21 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists

Tonight’s matchup against the Victor Wembanyama-less Spurs shapes up to be a favourable one.

San Antonio is 24th in rebounding rate and 20th in defensive rating since Wembanyama’s injury. It is also allowing the third-most assists per game to opposing centres in the last 15 days, according to Fantasy Pros.

The Spurs’ backup centre, Luke Kornet, is questionable to play with an ankle injury.

Queen should be able to use his size to score in the paint, and his passing ability to rack up assists.

Key stat: Queen is averaging 25.3 PRA in December.

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Best NBA picks

DeRozan over 19.5 points (+112): DeRozan is what I like to call an “ethical bucket getter.”

The veteran forward does a ton of damage in the mid-range and isn’t overly reliable on free throws to fill the basket.

He’s sitting at 17.9 PPG at the moment, but has averaged north of 20.0 PPG in 12 seasons prior.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on DeRozan against the Kings!

This should be the perfect matchup for DeRozan to crack the 20-point milestone and then some.

The Pacers have the third-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (48.4%), according to Cleaning the Glass.

Indiana also plays at the 10th-fastest pace (101.6 possessions per 48 minutes), per NBA.com.

Among forwards, DeRozan has ranked in the 100th percentile for mid-range shot frequency in each of the last seven seasons. He’s currently taking 69% of his shots from that area of the court and converting at a 49% clip.

NBA player prop predictions

Allen over 2.5 threes (-136): This line feels mispriced to me. Allen has knocked down 3s at a 40.0% clip or better in four of the last five seasons, landing on 39.9% in the outlier.

This is his first year as a full-time starter, and Allen has delivered in his expanded role. He’s averaging career highs in makes (3.6) and attempts (8.5), netting out to a stellar 42.2% clip.

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Devin Booker is out, and Dillon Brooks is questionable with Achilles soreness.

Booker isn’t a huge 3-point shooter, but his absence clearly places the onus on Allen to be one of Phoenix’s leading scorers, especially if Brooks can’t play.

Allen should clear this line based on volume alone, even against a solid defensive team like the Minnesota Timberwolves.

NBA prop picks made at 3 p.m. ET on Dec. 8, 2025.

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Lakers vs. 76ers SGP predictions Dec. 7: Back Tyrese Maxey and fade Austin Reaves in +325 ticket

The Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers meet in a marquee matchup on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is back in the lineup after missing two games (personal), and the Lakers are a slim road favourite as a result. On the other side, Joel Embiid has been upgraded to probable after making his return from injury earlier this week.

Check out my +325 Lakers vs. 76ers SGP predictions for Dec. 7, featuring Austin Reaves and Tyrese Maxey.

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Lakers vs. 76ers SGP predictions

Parlay: Lakers +7.5 (+310) | Maxey 25+ points | Reaves under 2.5 threes (+325)

Lakers +7.5 (-670): I expect L.A. to win this game, but am teasing the favourites way up to a 7.5 point dog. It’s still a valuable leg in this parlay, too, because it negatively correlates with the player props.

-> Bet on Sunday’s NBA slate now!

Los Angeles has won eight of its last 10 games, and seven of the last eight with Doncic playing.

LeBron James is questionable tonight, but at this point in his career, I don’t think that’s necessarily a net negative. The King’s defence and shooting efficiency have taken a dive this year as he battles sciatica.

Philly is a mediocre 7-6 at home, and L.A. is 7-4 ATS as a favourite, winning nine of those games outright.

NBA SGP legs

Maxey 25+ points (-225): This is Maxey’s team, even when Embiid is on the court. The former scoring champ is a shell of his former self and doesn’t add much offensively when he’s in the lineup.

L.A. also holds centres to the fewest points per game, according to Fantasy Pros, so this isn’t a great matchup for Embiid to thrive.

-> Build your own Lakers vs. 76ers SGP at NorthStar Bet

Maxey, on the other hand, should cook.

He’s averaging a career high 31.6 PPG and is shooting a solid 38.2% from deep. L.A. still ranks in the top half defensively against point guards, but Maxey takes plenty of shots and has huge upside on a nightly basis.

Maxey has reached this milestone in his last three games vs. L.A. and scored 43 points against the Lakers in his most recent matchup.

Reaves under 2.5 threes (+112): This is in no way a knock on Reaves’ ability. The fourth-year guard has “All NBA Team” written all over him, and just went nuclear in two games without Doncic:

Dec. 5 at Boston: 36 points (3-of-8 from deep)
Dec. 4 at Toronto: 44 points (5-of-11 from deep)

But Reaves typically takes fewer 3s with Doncic in the mix (9.6 to 7.1), and has gone under 2.5 threes in nine of 14 games when they’re both playing.

-> Fade Reaves and back Maxey here

Also, this is a very tough matchup against the Sixers on the road.

Philadelphia has the seventh-best 3-point defence in the NBA (34.3%) and has held its last three opponents to 29.1% shooting from deep.

Lakers vs. 76ers predictions made at 2:05 p.m. ET on Dec. 7, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 7: Back Giddey, Jokic and Mitchell on Sunday

Two dynamic playmakers, Josh Giddey and Nikola Jokic, are featured in Sunday’s top NBA prop predictions.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Giddey should hoover up rebounds against an undersized Golden State Warriors team still missing Steph Curry. Nikola Jokic, meanwhile, has an opportunity to cook from deep against the Charlotte Hornets.

Check out my plays in the best NBA prop picks for Dec. 7, featuring a best bet on Oklahoma City guard Ajay Mitchell.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 7

Best bet: Mitchell over 17.5 points (-118)

Mitchell typically comes off of OKC’s bench in relief of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

But the reigning MVP is sidelined tonight with an elbow injury, meaning Mitchell will be thrust into a starting role. We’ve already seen him make six starts this year, and the results are encouraging.

16.8 PPG
51.4 FG%
50.0 3PT%

He’s gone 3-3 against this line as a starter, but landed on 17 points once.

Isaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Joe are also out in addition to SGA. That’s 71.6 combined PPG lost, so I’m confident the sharp-shooting Mitchell can perform above his baseline.

-> See full betting markets for Sunday’s NBA slate

And I haven’t even mentioned OKC’s opponent yet.

The Utah Jazz are among the league’s worst defensive teams. They sit 29th in defensive rating (120.4) and allow the eighth-most PPG to opposing point guards (26.94), per Fantasy Pros.

Mitchell should be in for a big night.

Key stat: Mitchell has scored 17+ points in six of nine games when playing over 30 minutes.

Best NBA picks

Giddey over 9.5 rebounds (-106): Giddey is having a monster season, averaging career highs in all three major categories, and ranking 10th in rebounding (9.9/game).

The lanky point guard has double-digit boards in seven of his last 11 games and has a great opportunity to do it again.

Golden State lacks a true big man with sophomore centre Quinten Post being the only rotational player above 6-foot-9 — and he plays just 17 minutes a night.

-> Bet on Giddey against the Warriors!

On top of that, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green seem unlikely to play after missing yesterday’s contest with injuries.

The Warriors are a bottom-six team in rebounding rate, and I expect Giddy to feast.

NBA player prop predictions

Jokic over 1.5 threes (-130): I think it’s worth backing Jokic at this number against the Hornets.

Charlotte has the worst 3-point defence in the NBA (39.3%) and allows the most 3s per game to opposing centres (1.92).

Jokic is attempting more 3s than ever (4.9/game), and cashing at a 40.7% clip. That doesn’t seem fair given the rest of his skill set, but there’s a reason the Serbian is a three-time MVP winner.

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Jokic is 8-4 against this line in his last 12 games with at least one triple in each of those contests.

NBA prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 7, 2025.

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Celtics vs. Raptors SGP picks Dec. 7: Back Toronto on the spread, Ingram to be active on the glass

The Toronto Raptors look to get back in the win column against the Jayson Tatum-less Boston Celtics.

The pregame narrative: The Raptors have fallen to third in the Eastern Conference and Boston can leapfrog them with a win tonight. Toronto has been solid at home, though, so it won’t be easy for the Celtics to win their fifth straight game.

Check out my Celtics vs. Raptors SGP, featuring picks on Brandon Ingram and Jaylen Brown.

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Celtics vs. Raptors SGP picks

Parlay: Raptors +7.5 | Ingram 6+ rebounds | Brown over 28.5 points (+310)

Raptors +7.5 (-250): The Raptors have been in a bit of a skid, losing four of the past five games.

However, two of those losses were on the second halves of back-to-backs, and one was to the Lakers on a game-winning buzzer beater.

-> Bet on Sunday’s NBA slate at NorthStar Bets

It’s been a tough part of the schedule, and an injury to RJ Barrett has the offence feeling dull at times.

But there’s reason to expect the Raptors to be competitive here. The Celtics are 9-2 in their last 10 games, but only played four games on the road in that stretch.

Overall, they are 6-5 on the road. On the flip side, Toronto is 8-4 at Scotiabank Arena.

The Raptors are a young, scrappy team motivated to get a win at home. Expect this game to be close.

NBA SGP legs

Ingram 6+ rebounds (-157): Ingram’s scoring output has been inconsistent and he’s more reliable to back as a rebounder.

Ingram is averaging 5.9 rebounds per game on 9.3 rebound chances.

He’s grabbed 6+ rebounds in eight of the past nine games.

-> See all of Ingram’s props for today’s game

Lately, this line has been the floor for Ingram, and without Barrett in the lineup, he should be able to have another above-average performance on the glass.

When the Raptors and Celtics played in the final game of the preseason, Ingram logged 31 minutes and recorded a double-double (20 points, 10 rebounds).

Brown over 28.5 points (-134): This feels like the scoring floor for Brown right now, and that’s a scary sight for opposing defences.

He is 7-2 against this line over his past nine games.

During that stretch, he’s averaging 32.0 points on 47.5% shooting.

Brown attempted 8.8 free throws in those games. Those points at the charity stripe are a catalyst for high-scoring games.

-> Bet on tonight’s Celtics vs. Raptors game

Toronto’s defence is strong, but Brown has been torching all the best units in the league. He is truly above any bad matchup right now.

The Celtics’ superstar is coming off a 30-point performance against the Lakers and put up 42 on the New York Knicks the game prior.

Celtics vs. Raptors picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET Dec. 7, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 7: Back Giddey, Jokic and Mitchell on Sunday

Two dynamic playmakers, Josh Giddey and Nikola Jokic, are featured in Sunday’s top NBA prop predictions.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Giddey should hoover up rebounds against an undersized Golden State Warriors team still missing Steph Curry. Nikola Jokic, meanwhile, has an opportunity to cook from deep against the Charlotte Hornets.

Check out my plays in the best NBA prop picks for Dec. 7, featuring a best bet on Oklahoma City guard Ajay Mitchell.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 7

Best bet: Mitchell over 18.5 points (-108)

Mitchell typically comes off of OKC’s bench in relief of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

But the reigning MVP is sidelined tonight with an elbow injury, meaning Mitchell will be thrust into a starting role. We’ve already seen him make six starts this year, and the results are encouraging.

16.8 PPG
51.4 FG%
50.0 3PT%

He’s gone 2-4 against this line as a starter, but landed on 17 points once and 18 points once.

Isaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Joe are also out in addition to SGA. That’s 71.6 combined PPG lost, so I’m confident the sharp-shooting Mitchell can perform above his baseline.

-> See full betting markets for Sunday’s NBA slate

And I haven’t even mentioned OKC’s opponent yet.

The Utah Jazz are among the league’s worst defensive teams. They sit 29th in defensive rating (120.4) and allow the eighth-most PPG to opposing point guards (26.94), per Fantasy Pros.

Mitchell should be in for a big night.

Key stat: Mitchell has scored 17+ points in six of nine games when playing over 30 minutes.

Embed: #121968

Best NBA picks

Giddey over 9.5 rebounds (-136): Giddey is having a monster season, averaging career highs in all three major categories, and ranking 10th in rebounding (9.9/game).

The lanky point guard has double-digit boards in seven of his last 11 games and has a great opportunity to do it again.

Golden State lacks a true big man with sophomore centre Quinten Post being the only rotational player above 6-foot-9 — and he plays just 17 minutes a night.

-> Bet on Giddey against the Warriors!

On top of that, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green seem unlikely to play after missing yesterday’s contest with injuries.

The Warriors are a bottom-six team in rebounding rate, and I expect Giddy to feast.

NBA player prop predictions

Jokic over 1.5 threes (-150): I think it’s worth backing Jokic at this number against the Hornets.

Charlotte has the worst 3-point defence in the NBA (39.3%) and allows the most 3s per game to opposing centres (1.92).

Jokic is attempting more 3s than ever (4.9/game), and cashing at a 40.7% clip. That doesn’t seem fair given the rest of his skill set, but there’s a reason the Serbian is a three-time MVP winner.

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Jokic is 8-4 against this line in his last 12 games with at least one triple in each of those contests. If you’re looking for a juicer payout, backing him to clear 2.5 threes at +210 is certainly interesting.

NBA prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 7, 2025.

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Rockets vs. Mavericks SGP predictions Dec. 6: Fade Durant, but bet on Houston to win on the road

It’s an all-Texas matchup tonight in Dallas, where the Mavericks host the Houston Rockets.

The pregame narrative: Houston has been steamrolling plenty of teams lately, winning four of its past six by 19+ points. The Rockets, who beat Dallas at home in early November, are 7.5-point favourites on the road.

Check out my +425 Rockets vs. Mavericks SGP predictions for Dec. 6, featuring prop picks on Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis.

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Rockets vs. Mavericks SGP predictions

Parlay: Davis under 11.5 rebounds | Rockets -5.5 | Durant under 1.5 threes (+425)

Davis under 11.5 rebounds (-136): I don’t like fading Davis as a rebounder, but this is a high enough total that I’m good with backing the under.

Davis has averaged 10.7 rebounds/game in his career, and he’s been under 11.5 RPG in nine of 14 seasons.

He’s gone under this total in five of nine games so far this year.

The Rockets are allowing the fewest rebounds to opposing centres (11.6/game), according to Fantasy Pros.

-> Wager on Anthony Davis & more NBA props at NorthStar Bets

Alperen Sengun (illness) didn’t play last night. But as long as he’s healthy enough to go, that means he’ll be adequately rested for Saturday.

Davis, meanwhile, played 24 minutes on the road last night. In his career, he’s averaged 9.9 rebounds when playing on zero rest.

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NBA SGP legs

Rockets -5.5 (-136): Both teams are playing on a back-to-back, so that factor is a wash as far as I’m concerned.

What that leaves is two teams at opposite ends of the NBA. I’m not expecting this to be particularly close.

-> Bet on Rockets vs. Mavs tonight!

Houston (15-5) ranks second in the NBA in net rating (+12.0). They also have the best ATS record in the league (14-6).

Dallas (8-16) has a sub-.500 ATS record (11-13) and ranks 23rd in net rating (-4.4).

When these teams met in Houston last month, the Rockets won by eight. They’ve now covered this number in four of five matchups vs. the Mavericks since the start of last season.

Kevin Durant prop pick

Durant under 1.5 threes (+123): Durant shot 2-for-8 from deep when he faced the Mavericks back on Nov. 3, but his shot volume from deep has really dropped off since then.

In his past 12 games, Durant has averaged 4.4 attempted 3s.

This under is only 5-7 in that 12-game span, but he finished with exactly two 3s in five of the overs.

-> Fade Kevin Durant in Dallas on Saturday night

Durant’s ceiling as a 3-point shooter has been extremely low in the past month, and I don’t expect that to change in this matchup.

The Mavericks allow the third-lowest 3PT% (32.8) and the second-fewest attempted 3s (33.9/game).

Durant firing eight 3s last time in this head-to-head matchup — which tied a season-high — feels like an anomaly that won’t be repeated.

Rockets vs. Mavericks predictions made at 4:05 p.m. ET on Dec. 6, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 6: Predictions on Anthony Edwards, Bam Adebayo, Russell Westbrook

I’m looking to the 8 p.m. window on Saturday for my NBA prop bets, including two predictions from the Sacramento Kings vs. Miami Heat matchup.

Today’s NBA props narrative: With Sacramento’s best player on the sidelines, I expect Bam Adebayo to put in work for the Heat. And for the Kings, Russell Westbrook is a strong pick to can multiple 3s.

Check out my plays in the best NBA prop picks for Dec. 6, featuring a prediction on Anthony Edwards.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 6

Best bet: Adebayo over 30.5 points/rebounds (-112)

Adebayo is on a roll right now, and his Heat will face a Kings squad that’s missing its centrepiece, Domantas Sabonis.

What does Sabonis bring to the Kings when he’s on the court? Well, he’s the three-time reigning NBA rebound leader, and he has averaged a 12-rebound double-double in every season since 2019-20.

Sabonis will miss his ninth consecutive game tonight. In the previous eight, starting centres went 5-3 vs. this prop while averaging 20.6 points and 12.0 rebounds, collectively.

-> See full betting markets for Saturday’s NBA slate

On the season, the Kings have allowed the second-most points and the most rebounds to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

Enter Adebayo, who is averaging 19.9 points and 10.9 rebounds over his past seven games. He should be the next centre to really benefit from a Sabonis-less Sacramento.

Miami did play last night, but Adebayo has played a pair of back-to-backs already this season. So hopefully he isn’t sidelined on Saturday.

As long as he’s on the floor, the three-time all-star centre should thrive in this matchup.

Key stat: Adebayo has four double-doubles in his past five games vs. the Kings, averaging 19.6 PPG and 10.4 RPG in that span.

Best NBA picks

Westbrook over 1.5 threes (-125): There’s some extra juice on this prop, but I think it’s warranted for Westbrook, and I still want to buy in.

Now in his 18th year, Westbrook is nowhere near the peak of his powers. But he is shooting career-best 37.1% from 3-point land.

Westbrook is attempting 5.3 threes per game, which is the third-highest average of his career.

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Miami plays at the fastest pace in the NBA (105.63 possessions per 48 minutes), and Sacramento is fairly close behind in eighth. There should be ample opportunities for both sides to get a bunch of shots up.

The Heat also happen to allow the most 3-point attempts per game (42.1), so hopefully Westbrook is in the mood to fire away.

So far this season, Westbrook is 13-9 vs. this prop.

NBA player prop predictions

Edwards over 30.5 points (-110): Edwards got into some foul trouble last time out and finished with just 11 points on a wildly uncharacteristic six shot attempts. Don’t expect that to become a trend.

Prior to his six-shot dud, Edwards had exceeded the 30-point threshold in six consecutive games.

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The shooting guard is averaging 28.8 PPG on the season and should be in for another scoring binge tonight.

His Minnesota Timberwolves have a rest advantage vs. the Los Angeles Clippers (the NBA’s oldest team), who just played last night in Memphis.

L.A. is allowing the third-most PPG to opposing shooting guards this season. And Edwards dropped 37 on the Clips when he last faced them at home in January.

NBA prop picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 6, 2025.

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