Category: NBA

A trio of big-name players have my attention in the NBA prop market on Tuesday night.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Karl-Anthony Towns doesn’t need to put up huge scoring totals to make a difference for the New York Knicks, and I’m fading his point total tonight. Out west, De’Aaron Fox has a very attainable assists line against a poor defensive squad that’s playing on zero rest.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Feb. 10, including a prediction on Kawhi Leonard.

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NBA prop picks Feb. 10

Best bet: Fox over 5.5 assists (-136)

The San Antonio Spurs basically operate with two point guards, which can make it tough to back either one on any given night.

Fox works in tandem with reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. Both players average over 6.0 assists and 17-20 points per game.

San Antonio faces the Los Angeles Lakers tonight, and that’s a great matchup for point guards. L.A. allows the most assists per game to opposing PGs, according to Fantasy Pros, as well as the sixth-most assists overall.

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Fox’s assists line is set one below Castle (o/u 6.5), and that’s where I’m leaning despite the extra juice.

Why? Primarily because Fox has been steadily at or above that line in recent weeks. He has five or more assists in 11 straight games.

In that 11-game span, he also leads the Spurs in potential assists per game (13.5), which denotes passes that lead directly to a shot.

Castle dropped 40 points last time out, so hopefully he’ll be in more of a shooting mindset again. But either way, Fox has been a high-floor play at this number for a solid stretch.

Key stat: Over his past 11 games, Fox is 8-3 vs. this prop while averaging 7.5 APG.

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Best NBA picks

Leonard over 6.5 rebounds (-110): With James Harden out of the picture in Los Angeles, Leonard has needed to do it all for the Clippers. That includes crashing the glass.

On the season overall, Kawhi has averaged 6.3 rebounds. But he’s cashed this over in all three games since Harden’s trade to Cleveland went down.

Leonard is now 7-1 vs. this prop in his past eight games without Harden, who does his fair share of rebounding as a guard.

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The Houston Rockets pose one of the toughest defensive matchups in the NBA, but Kawhi had no problems against them last time out in late December: 41 points and eight rebounds in 37 minutes.

NBA player prop predictions

Towns under 19.5 points (-104): Towns has been superb as a rebounder for the Knicks recently, but his offensive numbers are down.

The five-time all-star is averaging 19.7 PPG this season, which is nearly five points below his mark last year. And it’s been even worse over the past four-ish weeks.

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Check out Towns’ numbers since Jan. 14:

• 13 games
• 15.6 PPG
• 43.8 FG%
• 34.7 3PT%
• Under 20 points in 10 of 13

In a game with big-time blowout potential — New York is laying 11.5 points at home vs. the Indiana Pacers — this is a good time to fade the big man.

NBA prop picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET on Feb. 10, 2026.

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The biggest inter-conference clash of the night takes place in Denver, where the Nuggets host the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The pregame narrative: Monday’s game is a pick’em, and I think Denver is worth backing on an alt spread. Also, assuming he plays, look for Jamal Murray to get buckets.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for Feb. 9, featuring Murray and James Harden.

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Cavaliers vs. Nuggets SGP

Parlay: Nuggets +4.5 | Murray 25+ points | Harden 20+ points (+310)

Nuggets +4.5 (-190): Coming off back-to-back triple-doubles, Nikola Jokic looks like he’s all the way back. Banking some points with Jokic’s Nuggets at home feels like a pretty safe move, at least to me.

• Denver is 11-6 straight up at home this season with Jokic playing, and the team is 13-4 against a +4.5 spread.

• The Nuggets have covered or won outright against teams like the Spurs, Rockets, Timberwolves and Suns.

Last month, without Jokic, the Nuggets lost by five in Cleveland (after entering the fourth quarter with a nine-point lead).

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Cleveland is 6-10 ATS as a road favourite this season. At the end of a five-game road trip, it’s tough to see the Cavs pushing around the Nuggets en route to a convincing win.

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NBA SGP legs

Murray 25+ points (-124): Murray (hip inflammation) is questionable for tonight, so his status will be one to monitor as we approach tip-off. But if he’s in, I think he’s a great pick at this number.

• Murray has proven several times this year that he can take over a game, which has led to a career-high scoring average (26.0 PPG).

• The Kitchener, Ontario native is also having a career year as a 3-point shooter, posting his best results in terms of 3PT% (43.2) and makes (3.3/game).

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Cleveland allows the third-most 3s to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros, and the team was on the wrong end of a Murray heater last month.

On Jan. 2 vs. the Cavs, Murray went 6-for-12 from deep as part of a 34-point masterpiece.

From that night onward, Murray is 10-6 vs. this prop while averaging 27.7 PPG.

Harden 20+ points (-190): Harden had been the No. 2 scoring option for the Clippers this season, and he’ll also fill that role for the Cavs. With that spot in the pecking order, he should reach this milestone most nights.

• Harden is averaging 25.4 PPG through 45 games this season. He scored 23 points on just 13 shots in his Cleveland debut.

• He is 34-11 vs. this milestone prop, and he has 18+ points in 40 of 45 games.

As a recent member of the Western Conference, Harden has already seen the Nuggets twice this season. He cashed this prop both times.

Cavaliers vs. Nuggets SGP predictions made at 11:25 a.m. on Feb. 9, 2026.

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Two of Monday’s three NBA prop picks come from the Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat matchup, which should be fast-paced and high-scoring.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Utah and Miami rank first and second in possessions per game. That helps explain tonight’s juicy over/under (240 points). I think Bam Adebayo and Isaiah Collier can both take advantage.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Feb. 9, including a prediction on the Minnesota Timberwolves point guard Donte DiVincenzo.

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NBA prop picks Feb. 9

Best bet: DiVincenzo under 12.5 points (-106)

If the Minnesota Timberwolves had been able to swing a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade, there’s a good chance DiVincenzo would be on the Bucks right now.

Instead, he’s still the starting point guard on a team that’s just a few games out of a top-three spot in the loaded Western Conference. The NBA is full of fine lines.

I still don’t like how things are trending for DiVincenzo, though, after Minnesota added Ayo Dosunmu at the deadline. Dosunmu, a talented point guard who came over from the Bulls, should take a bite out of DiVincenzo’s minutes.

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Last night marked Dosunmu’s debut for the T-wolves. Off the bench, he scored 11 points in 25 minutes, including 3-for-7 shooting from deep.

DiVincenzo, meanwhile, fouled out in 24 minutes. He was 0-for-3 from the floor.

It’s far too early to tell if the guards will typically see an even workload, or if that was largely a product of DiVincenzo’s foul troubles.

But Dosunmu has averaged 26-plus minutes in each of his five NBA seasons, so he’s accustomed to a solid workload.

DiVincenzo only scored six points (2-for-8 shooting) when he last faced the Atlanta Hawks on New Year’s Eve.

He’s averaging 12.5 points per game this season, and the Dosunmu factor has me on the under.

Key stat: This under is 14-8 in DiVincenzo’s past 22 games.

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Best NBA picks

Adebayo over 20.5 points (-127): This line is notably north of what Adebayo typically scores (18.2 PPG). But I’m drawn in by the matchup.

Utah allows the most points in the NBA, as well as the fifth-most points to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros.

Adebayo dropped 26 points on Utah when he faced the team on the road last month.

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Sure, the Jazz should have better rim protection now with Jaren Jackson Jr., but Adebayo takes 45% of his shots from the midrange (91st percentile among bigs, according to Cleaning The Glass).

In his past 15 games, Adebayo is 10-5 vs. this prop and is averaging 21.7 PPG.

NBA player prop predictions

Collier 25+ points/assists (-141): Collier is getting massive minutes for the Jazz right now. He’s played the full 48 twice already this month.

Is this a creative element to Utah’s tank, or do they just want to see what Collier does with a lot more on his plate? I’m not sure, but if it continues, this line will have to start going up.

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The second-year guard out of USC is 4-0 vs. this prop in February. He has at least 30 points/assists in three of those games.

Last month, in 28 minutes against the Heat, Collier racked up 16 points and nine assists to also cash this bet.

NBA prop picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET on Feb. 9, 2026.

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James Harden is questionable to make his debut for the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday night against the Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: Harden was one of the more surprising trade deadline movers this past week, and he’ll be a valuable contributor in a loaded Cleveland backcourt alongside Donovan Mitchell. I’ve got a Mitchell prop bet in my +310 SGP for tonight.

Check out my same-game parlay Cavaliers vs. Kings predictions for Feb. 7, including a prop bet on Kings rookie Nique Clifford.

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Cavaliers vs. Kings predictions

SGP: Mitchell over 27.5 points | Clifford over 7.5 points | Cavaliers -8.5 (+310)

Mitchell over 27.5 points (-141): We won’t know exactly how Harden fits with the Cavs until he plays, but my expectation is that he’ll be the primary facilitator. A bit more off-the-ball work wouldn’t be a bad thing for Mitchell’s scoring upside.

Keep in mind that Mitchell is already an elite scorer, ranking seventh in the NBA in points per game (28.8).

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Harden (25.4 PPG) can fill the net, too. But he’s nowhere near his three-time scoring champ days from the late-2010s.

Whether or not Harden plays tonight, Mitchell should be hyperactive as a shooter for the Cavs. He scored 33 points on 11-for-25 shooting against Sacramento two weeks ago.

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NBA SGP picks

Clifford over 7.5 points (-139): I’ll be honest, I don’t know what the Kings are doing. They’re in the NBA’s basement, and yet they kept all their main veterans at the deadline.

Still, with almost 30 games to go in another lost season, it’d make sense to give some of the kiddos more run. That includes Clifford, who was the 24th-overall pick in this past year’s draft.

-> Bet on Kawhi Leonard and John Collins tonight in Sacramento!

Clifford is averaging just 6.0 PPG this season, but he recently did see a huge influx in minutes. He has crested the 25-minute mark in seven straight games — after only doing that eight times in his first 42 games as a pro.

Unsurprisingly, Clifford is a more productive scorer when he plays more.

• 20+ minutes (23 games): 9.0 PPG
• Sub-20 minutes (26 games): 3.4 PPG

Clifford went for 16 points last time out and 14 points the game before that. This is purely a volume play for a guy on an atrocious team.

Cavaliers vs. Kings ATS prediction

Cavaliers -8.5 (-195): The Cavaliers have had some extra rest on this West Coast trip, with two days off between each of their games so far this month.

Sacramento, meanwhile, played last night … and extended its losing streak to 11 games.

To make matters worse for the Kings, they are just 5-12-0 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage, according to Team Rankings.

Cleveland is shredding lesser competition right now, ripping off a 5-1 ATS streak in its past six games. Each of the Cavs’ past five wins has come by at least 14 points.

Cavaliers vs. Kings predictions made at 12:30 p.m. on Feb. 7, 2026.

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Saturday night’s matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors doesn’t carry as much cachet as usual, but it still has some worthy targets in the prop market.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Luka Doncic and Steph Curry are both out, but in their absences, I’m expecting big things from Austin Reaves and Moses Moody. Reaves is only two games removed from a lengthy injury absence of his own, but he balled out on Thursday.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Feb. 7, including a prediction on the Utah Jazz’s new centre, Jaren Jackson Jr.

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NBA prop picks Feb. 7

Best bet: Reaves over 23.5 points (-105)

Reaves just returned to the Lakers’ lineup this week after a 19-game absence for a calf injury. He’s still ramping up and won’t see his typical minutes workload tonight.

But this line accounts for that, given that Reaves is averaging 26.5 PPG on the season. And I love his chances of cashing the over based on these factors:

1. He just went off in limited action on Thursday. Coming off the bench in just his second game back, Reaves went nuclear against the 76ers. He finished with 35 points on 12-of-17 shooting in just 25 minutes.
   
2. No Doncic, no problem. Doncic sustained a hamstring injury in L.A.’s last game and will be out tonight. In six games without the NBA’s leading scorer this season, Reaves is 5-1 vs. this prop while averaging 36.2 PPG.
   
3. The Warriors aren’t a daunting matchup. Over their past 15 games, the Warriors rank a pedestrian 13th in defensive rating. And for the season as a whole, they’re allowing the seventh-most points to opposing shooting guards.

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Reaves saw 20 minutes in his return to action and then 25 two nights ago. If he pushes for anything near 30 tonight, I think he’s got an awesome chance of hitting this over.

The Lakers are -2.5 home favourites, and a close game would likely help Reaves stay on the court.

Key stat: Reaves has averaged 24.4 PPG vs. Golden State in five matchups since the start of last season, going 3-2 vs. this prop (and scoring 23 points in one of the unders).

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Best NBA picks

Moody over 2.5 threes (-112): This is a pretty fair price for Moody, who’s averaging 2.4 made 3s on impressive 40.4% shooting from deep.

I like the over because Moody has been on a heater recently and should be encouraged to continue firing with Curry out.

• In his past 12 games, Moody is canning 3.5 threes on 6.9 attempts (50.6%).

• He is 9-3 vs. this prop in that span.

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Moody has played 13 games without Curry this year and is averaging 6.4 attempted 3s in those games. Curry’s absence, combined with Moody’s hot streak, should lead to some solid volume.

The Lakers are allowing the eighth-highest opponent 3PT% (36.7).

NBA player prop predictions

Jackson over 15.5 points (-122): Jackson is set to make his Jazz debut tonight after Utah shelled out a bunch of picks and players to acquire him.

He’s not expected to be the team’s primary scorer, but this is a point total I think he should be clearing most nights.

• Jackson is averaging 19.2 PPG this season. It’s his fourth consecutive year averaging north of 18.0 PPG.

• He went 11-1 vs. this scoring prop in his final 12 games with the Memphis Grizzlies.

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Jackson will face the Orlando Magic, a team he just battled twice in mid-January. In those games, Jackson scored 47 total points and went 2-0 vs. this prop.

NBA prop picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET on Feb. 7, 2026.

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