Category: NBA

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 8: Fade Keyonte George and Pascal Siakam, back Tyler Herro on Thursday

NBA prop picks Jan. 8

Two guards, Keyonte George and Tyler Herro, are the focus of Thursday’s NBA prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: I’m looking to stay hot after going 3-for-3 on yesterday’s picks. George is having a career year, but he’s a strong fade candidate against the Dallas Mavericks. Herro is making his second start since returning from an 11-game injury absence, and there’s value on his 3s prop.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 8, featuring a fade on Pascal Siakam.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 8

Best bet: George under 25.5 points (-118)

Entering play on Jan. 8, George sits third on the Most Improved Player odds board at 12-to-1, behind Jalen Johnson (+200) and Deni Avdija (-177).

It’s pretty easy to see why, looking at his scoring numbers:

  • 2024-25 (67 games): 16.8 PPG, 39.1 FG%, 34.3 3PT%
  • 2025-26 (35 games): 24.3 PPG, 45.0 FG%, 37.2 3PT%

But his per-game average sits below this total, he’s on a cold streak, and this is a tough matchup.

-> Bet on George prop markets for tonight’s Mavericks vs. Jazz matchup!

George is a mid-range assassin, taking 48% of his shots from that area of the court. That ranks in the 97th percentile among all guards, per Cleaning the Glass.

Dallas owns the third-best mid-range defence in the NBA, holding opponents to a 41.6 FG% in that area of the court. It also has the best 3-point defence to boot (33.2%).

On the second leg of a back-to-back, I expect the third-year guard to struggle.

Key stat: George has gone under this total in three straight games to start the new year while shooting 40.9% from the floor.

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NBA player prop predictions

Herro 3+ threes (+130): Herro returned to action on Tuesday, scoring 17 points in 29 minutes while going 1-for-4 from deep.

He’s only played seven games this year, averaging 2.3 threes on 39.0% shooting. That isn’t much to go off, but we all know the type of scorer Herro can be if he gets rolling.

The guard averaged 3.0+ threes in three straight seasons before this one, averaging 3.3 threes on 8.7 attempts last year (37.5%).

-> Full betting markets for Thursday’s 4-game NBA slate

Given his 29 minutes last night, we shouldn’t have to worry about a big minutes restriction.

It’s only a matter of time before this market will be priced odds-on, perhaps at unplayable numbers.

The Chicago Bulls, tonight’s opponent, allow the eighth-most 3s per game (13.9) at the 10th-highest rate (36.7%).

Siakam under 36.5 PRA (-115): I wanted to fade Siakam as a rebounder tonight against the Charlotte Hornets, but the under on his 7.5 total carries far too much juice (-155).

Charlotte is great on the glass, ranking second in rebounding rate.

The Hornets’ standout rookie centre, Ryan Kalkbrenner, remains sidelined. But they’re still second in rebounding rate since his injury on Dec. 20.

They’ve also held three straight opponents under 100 points, beating the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Jan. 5.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on tonight’s NBA prop markets!

All that said, taking the under on his PRA line seems fine to me. Siakam has gone under this mark in three of his last five games, landing on exactly 37 PRA in one of the outliers.

He also went under this mark against the Hornets earlier this year, totalling 33 PRA in 37 minutes.

NBA prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Jan. 8, 2026.

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Best NBA prop bets Jan. 8: Fade Keyonte George and Pascal Siakam, back Tyler Herro on Thursday

NBA prop picks Jan. 8

Two guards, Keyonte George and Tyler Herro, are the focus of Thursday’s NBA prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: I’m looking to stay hot after going 3-for-3 on yesterday’s picks. George is having a career year, but he’s a strong fade candidate against the Dallas Mavericks. Herro is making his second start since returning from an 11-game injury absence, and there’s value on his 3s prop.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 8, featuring a fade on Pascal Siakam.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 8

Best bet: George under 25.5 points (-118)

Entering play on Jan. 8, George sits third on the Most Improved Player odds board at 12-to-1, behind Jalen Johnson (+200) and Deni Avdija (-177).

It’s pretty easy to see why, looking at his scoring numbers:

  • 2024-25 (67 games): 16.8 PPG, 39.1 FG%, 34.3 3PT%
  • 2025-26 (35 games): 24.3 PPG, 45.0 FG%, 37.2 3PT%

But his per-game average sits below this total, he’s on a cold streak, and this is a tough matchup.

-> Bet on George prop markets for tonight’s Mavericks vs. Jazz matchup!

George is a mid-range assassin, taking 48% of his shots from that area of the court. That ranks in the 97th percentile among all guards, per Cleaning the Glass.

Dallas owns the third-best mid-range defence in the NBA, holding opponents to a 41.6 FG% in that area of the court. It also has the best 3-point defence to boot (33.2%).

On the second leg of a back-to-back, I expect the third-year guard to struggle.

Key stat: George has gone under this total in three straight games to start the new year while shooting 40.9% from the floor.

Best NBA picks

Herro 3+ threes (+115): Herro returned to action on Tuesday, scoring 17 points in 29 minutes while going 1-for-4 from deep.

He’s only played seven games this year, averaging 2.3 threes on 39.0% shooting. That isn’t much to go off, but we all know the type of scorer Herro can be if he gets rolling.

The guard averaged 3.0+ threes in three straight seasons before this one, averaging 3.3 threes on 8.7 attempts last year (37.5%).

-> Full betting markets for Thursday’s 4-game NBA slate

Given his 29 minutes last night, we shouldn’t have to worry about a big minutes restriction.

It’s only a matter of time before this market will be priced odds-on, perhaps at unplayable numbers.

The Chicago Bulls, tonight’s opponent, allow the eighth-most 3s per game (13.9) at the 10th-highest rate (36.7%).

NBA player prop predictions

Siakam under 38.5 PRA (-120): I wanted to fade Siakam as a rebounder tonight against the Charlotte Hornets, but the under on his 7.5 total carries far too much juice (-155).

Charlotte is great on the glass, ranking second in rebounding rate.

The Hornets’ standout rookie centre, Ryan Kalkbrenner, remains sidelined. But they’re still second in rebounding rate since his injury on Dec. 20.

They’ve also held three straight opponents under 100 points, beating the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Jan. 5.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on tonight’s NBA prop markets!

All that said, taking the under on his PRA line seems fine to me. Siakam has gone under this mark in three of his last five games, landing on exactly 37 PRA in one of the outliers.

He also went under this mark against the Hornets earlier this year, totalling 33 PRA in 37 minutes.

NBA prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Jan. 8, 2026.

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Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions Jan. 8: Anthony Edwards should lead Minnesota to a home win

Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves SGP

Searching for their fifth win in six games, the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Tonight’s matchup is the front end of a home-and-home series, and the T-wolves are favoured to get the win at Target Center. The Cavs have the NBA’s worst ATS record (12-26-0), according to Team Rankings.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for Jan. 8, featuring prop bets on Anthony Edwards and Donovan Mitchell.

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Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves SGP

Parlay: Timberwolves ML | Edwards 3+ threes | Mitchell over 4.5 assists (+290)

Timberwolves moneyline (-134): Cleveland won 64 games last year en route to claiming the top seed in the Eastern Conference. But this year’s squad has been disappointing, playing at a 45-win pace despite rostering the same core.

With that in mind, I’m not worried about the fact that the Cavaliers won and covered in both matchups vs. the Timberwolves a season ago. It’s a new year, and Minnesota has been a markedly better squad.

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It’s also easier to back the T-wolves at home, where they’ve already beaten some of the NBA’s best: Celtics, Spurs, Thunder and Knicks.

Minnesota has a +6.4 net rating at home this season, which ranks eighth in the NBA.

Two nights ago, while the Cavs were scraping by an awful Pacers squad on the road (120-116), the T-wolves were at home blowing out the playoff-calibre Miami Heat (122-94).

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NBA SGP legs

Edwards 3+ threes (-167): Cleveland is allowing the highest opponent 3PT% in the NBA right now (37.8), and Edwards is the most likely player to take advantage of that.

  • Edwards is having his most efficient season ever from beyond the arc, shooting 40.7% on 8.3 attempts per game. That equates to an average of 3.4 makes.
  • The two-time reigning All-NBA guard has 3+ threes in 19 of 30 games.
  • In Minnesota’s past 10 games, Edwards is shooting 39.1% from deep. No one else on the team is shooting north of 33.0% (minimum 2.5 attempted threes per game).

-> Bet on Ant Man and the T-wolves to thrive at home

Last year, Edwards went crazy against the Cavs as an outside shooter. In just two games, he went 12-for-26 (46.2%) from deep.

You can get Edwards over 3.5 threes at or around even money, which I think is a good standalone play. But I’ll take a safer route for the SGP.

Mitchell over 4.5 assists (-157): As a shooting guard who’s averaging just under of 30 points per night, Mitchell might not strike you as much of a facilitator.

But the attention he draws as a scorer means that there’s often an open shooter to kick to when he has the ball. And Mitchell isn’t shy about doing that.

-> Full Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves prop betting markets

Mitchell is averaging 5.4 assists this year, putting him on track to post 5.0 APG or more for a fifth time in six seasons. He is 26-8 vs. this prop.

Last year, Mitchell cashed this prop easily in both showdowns with Minnesota. He had a seven and eight assists, respectively, in those games.

Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves predictions made at 9:20 a.m. on Jan. 8, 2026.

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Lakers vs. Spurs SGP predictions Jan. 7: Fade Doncic, look for Castle and Champagnie to step up in San Antonio

Lakers vs. Spurs SGP

On Wednesday night, the Los Angeles Lakers visit the San Antonio Spurs in a matchup of teams playing on back-to-backs.

The pregame narrative: LeBron James and Victor Wembanyama are both listed as questionable, so I’m turning elsewhere for prop picks. This +440 ticket does feature one superstar, Luka Doncic, but he’s looking fade-worthy tonight.

Check out my Lakers vs. Spurs SGP predictions for Jan. 7, featuring prop bets on Stephon Castle and Julian Champagnie.

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Lakers vs. Spurs SGP

Parlay: Castle 25+ points/assists | Doncic under 37.5 points | Champagnie over 11.5 points (+440)

Castle 25+ points/assists (-132): Statistically speaking, Castle has had some bumps in the road in recent weeks. But I think the path for a productive showing on Wednesday will be smooth.

  • According to Fantasy Pros, the Lakers allow the third-most assists to opposing point guards (9.7/game).
  • In two matchups vs. L.A. this season, Castle has 46 points and 14 assists (30 PA per game).

-> Bet on NBA futures at NorthStar Bets

The reigning Rookie of the Year is 1-1 vs. this prop when facing the Lakers, but he landed on exactly 24 points/assists in the under. And that was a game in which he shot an uncharacteristic 3-for-11 from the field.

Overall, the former UConn standout is 15-12 vs. this line.

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NBA SGP legs

Doncic under 37.5 points (-167): We’re playing with fire here, as Doncic has the ability to go nuclear on any given night. He is the NBA scoring leader, after all.

But even as the top scorer in the NBA, Doncic’s average (33.5 PPG) falls well below this mark.

He scored 35 points apiece in both previous matchups vs. the Spurs this season. As impressive as that is, it put him under this sky-high line both times.

-> Fade Doncic vs. the Spurs

With Austin Reaves (calf) out, it would’ve been fair to assume that Doncic would shoulder even more of a scoring load for the Lakers. But that hasn’t been true.

In the absence of his backcourt mate, Doncic is averaging 30.7 PPG in 10 games. This under is 9-1 in those matchups.

All things considered, this is a pretty playable price to fade Doncic at a massive point total. On principle, I have to jump on that.

Champagnie over 11.5 points (-139): Devin Vassell’s injury has vaulted Champagnie into a heightened role, and he’s certainly seizing the opportunity to get shots up.

Having landed in the starting lineup in four straight games sans-Vassell, here’s what Champagnie has been up to:

  • 22.0 PPG
  • 20+ points in three of four
  • 13.8 shots/game
  • 48.9 3PT%

-> Full Lakers vs. Spurs prop betting markets

Champagnie can easily clear this prop from beyond the arc. He’s averaging 11.3 attempted 3s in the past four games, and if four of those go in, we’re laughing.

This is a solid matchup for Champagnie to do damage, as the Lakers allow the 11th-most made 3s on the sixth-highest 3PT% (37.3).

The fourth-year wing has cashed this bet in both previous matchups vs. the Lakers this season, scoring 14 and 16 points, respectively, in those games.

Lakers vs. Spurs predictions made at 3:20 p.m. on Jan. 7, 2026.

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Best NBA prop picks Jan. 7: Bet on Gilgeous-Alexander and Banchero to fill the basket

NBA prop picks Jan. 7

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander headlines my NBA prop picks from Wednesday’s massive 12-game slate.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: The Oklahoma City Thunder have dropped two straight and are officially slumping. Tonight, the reigning champs are big favourites over the lowly Utah Jazz, setting the table for SGA and Co. to right the ship.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 7, featuring Payton Pritchard and Paolo Banchero.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 7

Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 points (-130)

The Thunder were 24-1 entering play on Dec. 13 and on pace to shatter the Golden State Warriors’ single-season win record before dropping six of their last 12.

Typical regression? Opponents found a defensive scheme? Too much turkey over the holidays?

Whatever the case, I say the buck stops tonight with Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge. And it’s not like the reigning MVP played poorly during that 12-game stretch:

  • 29.5 PPG
  • 52.2 FG%
  • 30+ points seven times

-> Bet on SGA prop markets for tonight’s Jazz vs. Thunder matchup!

The Canadian is going to get his buckets, and he has an A+ matchup against Utah, which allows the second-most points per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

SGA played the Jazz earlier this year and dropped 31 points on 9-of-14 shooting, adding 10 at the line.

Last season, when he averaged a league-best 32.7 PPG, Gilgeous-Alexander scored a season-high 54 points against Utah.

SGA did go under this mark in his two other meetings last year, but he still had strong outings. This seems like a good time for the MVP to have a statement game.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30-plus points in 26 of 36 games this year.

Best NBA picks

Pritchard over 4.5 rebounds (-118): Pritchard isn’t the most physically imposing player in the NBA at 6-foot-1, 195 pounds. You probably wouldn’t even bat an eye walking past him on the street.

But the point guard plays big minutes for the Celtics (32.9 per game) and averages a respectable 4.5 rebounds, which is right in line with tonight’s total.

-> Full betting markets for Wednesday’s 12-game NBA slate

He should have every opportunity to over-index on that mark against a Denver Nuggets team missing Nikola Jokic and Jonas Valanciunas.

Jokic has been out for four games with a hyperextended knee, and while it’s a small sample, the Nuggets sit 27th in rebounding rate in his absence.

Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Christian Braun (ankle) are also questionable after missing Monday’s contest.

Pritchard has logged four-plus rebounds in nine of his last 11 games, clearing this mark five times.

NBA player prop predictions

Banchero over 23.5 points (-110): Banchero had a horrible start to the year from an efficiency standpoint and currently ranks 101st in FG% (45.3).

It looks like the all-star has found a groove, though, averaging 25.0 PPG in his last five on 52.7% shooting.

Banchero cleared this mark in three of those contests, landing on exactly 23 points in one of the outliers.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on tonight’s NBA prop markets!

Tonight’s game against the Brooklyn Nets should be close — Orlando is a 2-point road favourite — meaning Banchero will get lots of run.

That sounds good to me, considering the Nets are 20th in defensive rating and allow the 11th-most PPG to opposing power forwards.

NBA prop picks made at 10:11 a.m. ET on Jan. 7, 2026.

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Bucks vs. Warriors SGP predictions Jan. 7: Back Steph Curry and Giannis Antetokounmpo at +310

Bucks vs. Warriors SGP

The Golden State Warriors host the Milwaukee Bucks in tonight’s star-studded NBA nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Steph Curry are both playing at an MVP level, but their teams have fairly pedestrian records. Milwaukee is 4-1 since Giannis returned from injury, but the team is a 6.5-point road underdog tonight.

Check out my Bucks vs. Warriors SGP predictions for Jan. 7 featuring both star players.

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Bucks vs. Warriors SGP

Parlay: Bucks +3.5 | Giannis 10+ rebounds | Curry 3+ threes (+310)

Bucks +3.5 (+130): It wasn’t long ago when these teams were perennial title contenders, but those days are gone.

Milwaukee (16-20) and Golden State (19-18) are middling. I think this matchup should be closer to a coin flip, so I’m comfortable teasing the Bucks to cover this number.

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The Bucks are 13-9 with Giannis in the lineup, covering a +3.5 spread at a 72.7% clip. Check out the team’s splits with and without its star player, via StatMuse:

  • With Giannis: 118.9 offensive rating, +1.3 net rating
  • Without Giannis: 108.0 offensive rating, -7.8 net rating

Few players can impact a game like the Greek Freak. I expect him to be a force on the glass (more on that later) and do damage in the paint.

Milwaukee is 6-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.

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NBA SGP legs

Giannis 10+ rebounds (-278): Golden State doesn’t have an elite big man on its roster, and it ranks 22nd in rebounding rate as a result.

Sophomore centre Quinten Post is the only 7-footer in the rotation, and he averages just 4.1 rebounds a night.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on Curry and Giannis now!

That said, Giannis should be licking his chops at this matchup.

He’s averaged double-digit boards in each of the last nine seasons and has cleared this mark in three straight games.

Some of his numbers this year are a little funky because of injuries and minutes restrictions, but Giannis played 32 minutes on Sunday and should be full-go tonight.

Curry 3+ threes (-345): I’ll be shocked if this is the leg that sinks the SGP.

Curry is still the league’s premier 3-point shooter, averaging the most makes (4.8) and attempts (12.2) per game. That nets out to a 39.2% clip.

He’s hit this mark in 10 of 12 games since December, and he’s had four-plus 3s in four straight.

Milwaukee is 18th in opponent 3-point percentage, so this isn’t exactly a tough matchup.

Bucks vs. Warriors predictions made at 12 p.m. on Jan. 7, 2026.

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Best NBA prop picks Jan. 7: Bet on Gilgeous-Alexander and Banchero to fill the basket

NBA prop picks Jan. 7

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander headlines my NBA prop picks from Wednesday’s massive 12-game slate.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: The Oklahoma City Thunder have dropped two straight and are officially slumping. Tonight, the reigning champs are big favourites over the lowly Utah Jazz, setting the table for SGA and Co. to right the ship.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 7, featuring Payton Pritchard and Paolo Banchero.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 7

Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 points (-117)

The Thunder were 24-1 entering play on Dec. 13 and on pace to shatter the Golden State Warriors’ single-season win record before dropping six of their last 12.

Typical regression? Opponents found a defensive scheme? Too much turkey over the holidays?

Whatever the case, I say the buck stops tonight with Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge. And it’s not like the reigning MVP played poorly during that 12-game stretch:

  • 29.5 PPG
  • 52.2 FG%
  • 30+ points seven times

-> Bet on SGA prop markets for tonight’s Jazz vs. Thunder matchup!

The Canadian is going to get his buckets, and he has an A+ matchup against Utah, which allows the second-most points per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

SGA played the Jazz earlier this year and dropped 31 points on 9-of-14 shooting, adding 10 at the line.

Last season, when he averaged a league-best 32.7 PPG, Gilgeous-Alexander scored a season-high 54 points against Utah.

SGA did go under this mark in his two other meetings last year, but he still had strong outings. This seems like a good time for the MVP to have a statement game.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30-plus points in 26 of 36 games this year.

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Best NBA picks

Pritchard over 4.5 rebounds (+104): Pritchard isn’t the most physically imposing player in the NBA at 6-foot-1, 195 pounds. You probably wouldn’t even bat an eye walking past him on the street.

But the point guard plays big minutes for the Celtics (32.9 per game) and averages a respectable 4.5 rebounds, which is right in line with tonight’s total.

-> Full betting markets for Wednesday’s 12-game NBA slate

He should have every opportunity to over-index on that mark against a Denver Nuggets team missing Nikola Jokic and Jonas Valanciunas.

Jokic has been out for four games with a hyperextended knee, and while it’s a small sample, the Nuggets sit 27th in rebounding rate in his absence.

Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Christian Braun (ankle) are also questionable after missing Monday’s contest.

Pritchard has logged four-plus rebounds in nine of his last 11 games, clearing this mark five times.

NBA player prop predictions

Banchero over 23.5 points (-104): Banchero had a horrible start to the year from an efficiency standpoint and currently ranks 101st in FG% (45.3).

It looks like the all-star has found a groove, though, averaging 25.0 PPG in his last five on 52.7% shooting.

Banchero cleared this mark in three of those contests, landing on exactly 23 points in one of the outliers.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on tonight’s NBA prop markets!

Tonight’s game against the Brooklyn Nets should be close — Orlando is a 2-point road favourite — meaning Banchero will get lots of run.

That sounds good to me, considering the Nets are 20th in defensive rating and allow the 11th-most PPG to opposing power forwards.

NBA prop picks made at 10:11 a.m. ET on Jan. 7, 2026.

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Raptors vs. Hornets SGP predictions Jan. 7: Kon Knueppel should guide Charlotte to success

Raptors vs. Hornets SGP

The Toronto Raptors and Charlotte Hornets close the book on their season series on Wednesday night with a matchup at Spectrum Center.

The pregame narrative: Charlotte’s offence has caught fire, so Toronto might be catching the team at the wrong time. The Hornets have also played the Raptors supremely tough this year, including a 25-point beatdown of the Raps last month.

Check out my Raptors vs. Hornets SGP predictions for Jan. 7, featuring prop bets on Kon Knueppel and Immanuel Quickley.

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Raptors vs. Hornets SGP

Parlay: Knueppel over 18.5 points | Hornets +4.5 | Quickley 15+ points (+360)

Knueppel over 18.5 points (-103): This seems like a great line for Knueppel, who has been on an absolute heater from 3-point range lately

  • Over his past 11 games, the rookie is shooting 50.5% on 8.3 attempted 3s per game.
  • From an overall scoring standpoint, he is 9-2 vs. this scoring prop in his past 11 games while averaging 22.8 points.

This stellar run has bumped Knueppel up to +600 in the NBA Rookie of the Year odds. That’s still a long way from Cooper Flagg (-1,000), but Knueppel is the only one within shouting distance of the Dallas forward.

-> Bet on NBA futures at NorthStar Bets

The Raptors are allowing the second-lowest 3PT% in the NBA, so you might think this is an unfavourable matchup for the 20-year-old from Duke. Think again.

Knueppel has 20+ points in all three games against Toronto so far, and he’s 13-for-26 from outside in those matchups.

On the season, Knueppel is averaging 19.5 PPG and is 22-13 vs. this prop.

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NBA SGP legs

Hornets +4.5 (-148): Knueppel isn’t the only one in a groove for Charlotte right now. The team is buzzing — pun only partially intended — ever since its blowout win in Toronto back on Dec. 5.

From that night forward, Charlotte is 11-3 ATS with five outright wins as an underdog.

Zooming in even further, the Hornets have the No. 2 offensive rating in the NBA over their past 10 games.

-> Full Raptors vs. Hornets betting markets

I know the Oklahoma City Thunder are slumping a bit right now, but let’s give the Hornets some respect. They just smoked the defending champs, 124-97, on the road as 15.5-point underdogs.

Charlotte is 2-1 SU (3-0 ATS) against Toronto this season, covering this line each time. I’m feeling good backing the red-hot Hornets with some cushion at home.

On its last road trip, Toronto lost two of three games straight up as a favourite.

Quickley 15+ points (-195): Quickley is Toronto’s most active shooter from 3-point range, and the Hornets allow the highest opponent 3PT% in the NBA (38.3). This is a matchup to capitalize on.

And Quickley has already done that, with 10-for-26 shooting (38.5%) in three matchups against Charlotte this season.

He’s also hit this points milestone in each of those games, finishing with 15, 22 and 31 points, respectively.

-> Bet on Quickley and Knueppel in Raptors vs. Hornets!

Charlotte’s recent tear is based on great shooting, not great defence. Quickley has cashed this bet in 24 of 36 games on the season (66.7%) and should do so again tonight.

Raptors vs. Hornets SGP predictions made at 9:15 a.m. on Jan. 7, 2026.

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Mavericks vs. Kings SGP predictions Jan. 6: Back Cooper Flagg, Dallas to cover at +320

Mavericks vs. Kings SGP

Tuesday’s NBA slate wraps up with an 11 p.m. ET clash between the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: Both teams sit outside of the playoff picture, with Sacramento posting a basement-dwelling 8-28 record. Dallas is a 5.5-point road favourite tonight and should feel good about the play of Cooper Flagg, who’s now a massive -835 favourite to win Rookie of the Year.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Kings SGP predictions for Jan. 6, featuring prop bets on Flagg and DeMar DeRozan.

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Mavericks vs. Kings SGP predictions

Parlay: Mavericks -5.5 | Flagg 6+ rebounds | DeRozan under 18.5 points (+320)

Mavericks -5.5 (-109): Picking the spread in this matchup seems fairly simple to me.

Dallas is a bad team, but Sacramento is horrible.

The Kings have the worst net rating in the NBA (-11.5) and have dropped 15 of their last 18 games. One of those wins was against the Mavericks, but Anthony Davis was sidelined.

Davis will play tonight, and he’s been a force since Dec. 1:

  • 20.9 points per game
  • 11.5 rebounds per game
  • 1.8 blocks per game

In terms of star power, Dallas has AD and Flagg — that’s miles clear of what Sacramento can offer.

-> Build your own Mavericks vs. Kings SGP at NorthStar Bets

The Kings are missing three-time rebounding leader Domantas Sabonis, and are relying on three past-their-prime scorers to carry the load (DeRozan, Russell Westbrook, Zach LaVine).

Sacramento is an NBA-worst 11-22 ATS as an underdog this year.

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NBA SGP picks

Flagg 6+ rebounds (-215): Speaking of Flagg, I think it’s time to take whatever “overrated” chatter there was and throw it out of the window.

The 2025 No. 1 pick struggled to start the year, but found his footing in December, averaging 23.5 points and 6.2 rebounds a night.

Flagg had two bad games to start the year, shooting a combined 8-for-27 from the field. I expect him to bounce back tonight, but I’m more interested in this rebounding total.

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Flagg has reached this milestone in nine of his last 10 games, corralling seven-plus boards five times.

He should feast on the glass tonight.

Sacramento is 29th in rebounding rate since Sabonis went down with an injury on Nov. 16.

DeRozan under 18.5 points (-127): Finally, I want to fade DeRozan.

The 36-year-old forward is putting up a respectable 18.3 PPG, but that’s a big dropoff from last year and by far his lowest mark since the 2012-13 season.

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He’s also been in a slump lately, failing to crack 15 points in four of his last six contests.

That includes a nine-point outing against the Mavs, where he shot 2-of-10 from the field.

Dallas is a nightmare matchup for DeRozan, who ranks in the 100th percentile among forwards in mid-range shot frequency, according to Cleaning the Glass.

The Mavs have the fourth-best mid-range defence in the league (42.0%). They also allow the second-fewest PPG to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Mavericks vs. Kings predictions made at 2 p.m. on Jan. 6, 2026.

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Best NBA prop picks Jan. 6: Predictions on Anthony Davis, Evan Mobley and Zion Williamson

NBA prop picks Jan. 6

A trio of big men headline Tuesday’s NBA prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Anthony Davis is playing big minutes and should thrive on the glass against the undersized Sacramento Kings. Elsewhere, look for Evan Mobley to continue his elite run of defensive play when the Cleveland Cavaliers battle the Indiana Pacers.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 6, featuring a prediction on Zion Williamson.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 6

Best bet: Davis over 11.5 rebounds (-112)

Dallas has taken the kid gloves off of Davis.

The centre has averaged 35.8 minutes over his last seven games, excluding a Christmas Day matchup against the Golden State Warriors, where he left early with an injury.

That’s always a risk with AD, but it’s one I’m willing to take tonight.

In that seven-game span (again, sans Warriors game), he has put up huge numbers on the glass:

  • 12.7 rebounds/game
  • 12+ rebounds five times
  • 14+ rebounds four times

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The Mavericks aren’t a great team, and neither are the Kings. Dallas is a slim 5.5-point road favourite, so I expect this to be a close matchup with Davis playing around 35 minutes.

If he gets that much run, clearing this should be a breeze.

Key stat: Sacramento ranks 29th in rebounding rate since Domantas Sabonis went down with an injury on Nov. 16.

Best NBA picks

Mobley over 1.5 blocks (–134): The reigning Defensive Player of the Year has been on a warpath lately, putting up some ridiculous numbers in his last four games:

  • Jan 4 vs. Pistons: 4 blocks, 1 steal
  • Jan 2 vs. Nuggets: 3 blocks, 1 steal
  • Dec. 31 vs. Suns: 5 blocks, 1 steal
  • Dec. 29 at Spurs: 3 blocks

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Indiana lacks size and plays at the 11th-fastest pace in the league. The Pacers give up the sixth-most blocks per game to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Mobley should have another big game defensively.

NBA player prop predictions

Williamson over 24.5 points (-110): Hopefully, Williamson can stay healthy for the rest of the season, because he’s truly electric whenever he’s on the court.

His numbers since returning on Dec. 14:

  • 23.5 PPG
  • 60.1 FG%
  • 26.3 MPG

Williamson came off the bench for the first seven games, but has started the last four.

In that span, he’s scored 30-plus points three times and is playing just under 30 minutes a night.

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Williamson’s only meeting with the Lakers over the last two seasons came 10 months ago in March 2025, and he erupted for 37 points on 17-of-23 shooting (73.9%) in that matchup.

It’s a small sample, but one I put value in, given L.A.’s defensive track record this season.

Los Angeles has given up the seventh-most points per game to power forwards and sits 26th in defensive rating.

NBA prop picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET on Jan. 5, 2026.

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