CJ McCollum is set to make his Atlanta Hawks debut on Sunday night, and I’ve got my eye on him in the prop market.
Tonight’s NBA props narrative: McCollum’s Hawks are on the road to face the Golden State Warriors, and the over on his assists prop should be in play. Elsewhere, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Alex Sarr are a pair of big men worth backing, too.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 11.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 11
Best bet: McCollum over 2.5 assists (-148)
With Trae Young out of the picture, the Hawks don’t have a bona fide point guard in their rotation.
Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are both capable of running things, but I expect McCollum to join a by-committee approach in Atlanta.
- Though he was listed as a shooting guard for the Washington Wizards before the trade, McCollum is coming off three-and-a-half seasons running point in New Orleans.
- He’s averaging 3.6 assists this season and 4.8 APG since the start of the 2021-22 campaign.
Without having seen McCollum suit up for Atlanta before, it’s impossible to know exactly how they’ll deploy him. But I think this is a line he’ll clear on most nights for his new team, and I’m not sure how long the line will stick around.
-> Bet on McCollum in his Atlanta Hawks debut!
McCollum’s presence should take pressure off Johnson, who leads the Hawks in points, rebounds and assists.
I just don’t see a world in which McCollum fades below 2.5 assists per night on a team without an established point guard.
McCollum might come off the bench for Atlanta. That’s not necessarily a worse outcome for this prop, though, as it would clear the way for him to not compete with Daniels for assists.
McCollum is 15-2 vs. this prop since the start of December, and he’s 28-7 against it on the season. Get in while you can, I say.
Key stat: Since the start of the 2023-24 season, McCollum is 4-0 vs. this assists prop when facing the Golden State Warriors (tonight’s opponents).
Best NBA picks
Sarr 2+ blocks (–137): Victor Wembanyama is averaging an NBA-high 2.9 blocks per game, but he’s missed enough action to not currently qualify as the leader.
That leaves Sarr (2.3 BPG) at the top of the heap.
And with that number in mind, this is a solid price to back Washington’s 7-footer to swat a couple of shots on Sunday.
- Sarr is 7-3 vs. this prop in his past 10 games, averaging 3.0 BPG in that span.
- On the season, he has 2+ blocks in 19 of 28 games.
- Sarr will face the Phoenix Suns tonight, and he tallied two blocks in a matchup against them on Dec. 29.
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Being among the tallest players on the court in every game helps Sarr block shots, but he deserves credit for his effort level, too.
The Frenchman contests 10.4 shots per game, according to NBA.com, which is the fifth-most in the league.
NBA player prop predictions
Giannis over 29.5 points (-105): It’s been just under two weeks since Nikola Jokic went down with an injury, and the Denver Nuggets are missing him dearly.
In six games sans-Jokic, the Nuggets are 3-3 with the league’s 10th-worst net rating (-5.3). Before that, the Nuggets were 22-10 with a +7.2 net rating.
Jokic is out again, along with fellow centre Jonas Valanciunas. Giannis should be able to attack the Nuggets in the paint with ease.
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Giannis is 14-10 vs. this prop on the season, cashing it in four of his past five games. Even if there was more resistance coming from Denver’s frontcourt, it might not matter.
In his past five matchups against the Nuggets, Giannis has averaged 31.4 PPG.
NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 11, 2026.
