Category: MLB

Only one NL Central team can squeeze its way into the NLCS, and we’ll have our answer on Saturday night in Milwaukee.

The pregame narrative: The Brewers host the Chicago Cubs in a win-or-go-home matchup in Game 5 of the NLDS. Milwaukee won the first two games of the series at home, but Chicago held serve in its home park. Neither team’s starting pitcher had been confirmed at the time of this writing.

Check out my Cubs vs. Brewers picks for Game 5 at American Family Field, featuring a two-leg prop bet featuring Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn.

Cubs vs. Brewers picks

Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (-109)

The Cubs and Brewers have seen a lot of each other. In my view, that should benefit the hitters.

Saturday’s matchup will be their fifth in eight days. It’ll also be their 13th since the all-star break.

• Right now, Chicago has five true bullpen arms to go with four pseudo-starters. Four of the five legitimate relievers pitched on back-to-back days in Games 3 and 4.

• Shota Imanaga figures to be involved for the Cubs, though he’ll be lined up on four days’ rest instead of his usual five-plus. In Game 2, Imanaga allowed four earned runs over 2.2 innings in a 7-3 loss.

• Milwaukee, meanwhile, used seven relievers in a Game 2 bullpen day and five relievers in Game 3. The Brewers only have two stretched-out starters right now (Freddy Peralta, Quinn Priester), and it’s likely that neither will be available in the decisive game.

• Jacob Misiorowski should factor into this game for the Brewers. He tossed 3.0 scoreless innings (with four strikeouts) in relief in Game 2 … but he still has a 4.98 ERA in 11 outings since the all-star break.

The Cubs and Brewers cashed this over in both previous NLDS matchups in Milwaukee, totalling 22 runs in those games.

Playing in an enclosed ballpark eliminates the negative effect that fall weather in the Midwest can have on scoring.

Key stat: This over is 10-7 in head-to-head matchups between Chicago and Milwaukee these season. The average total in those games was 8.9 runs.

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NLDS Game 5 prop bet

Parlay: Chourio, Vaughn 1+ hits each (-108): I made this prediction under the assumption that the left-handed Imanaga will pitch in Game 5 as either a starter or bulk reliever.

If that’s the case, both of these Brewers should have a good chance at getting a hit.

• Chourio is 7-for-15 (.467) with a pair of doubles and a home run in the postseason. Against LHPs this season, he batted .343 with a 168 wRC+.

• Vaughn is 3-for-10 (.300) with a HR in the postseason. Against LHPs this year, he batted .313 with a 142 wRC+.

Both players cashed this bet when Imanaga pitched in Game 2.

Cubs vs. Brewers picks made at 3:25 p.m. on 10/10/2025.

The Milwaukee Brewers have another chance to close out the Chicago Cubs and clinch their NLCS spot on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Chicago staved off elimination yesterday with a 4-3 win and is a slim underdog today. The Cubs turn to lefty Matthew Boyd, who got shelled in Game 1 of this series on Saturday. Milwaukee counters with its own ace, Freddy Peralta.

Check out my Brewers vs. Cubs predictions for Oct. 9, featuring prop bets on Andrew Vaughn and Kyle Tucker.

Brewers vs. Cubs predictions

Parlay: Brewers moneyline | Vaughn over 1.5 bases | Tucker over 0.5 hits (+525)

Brewers moneyline (-122): We saw this pitching matchup unfold on Saturday, and the results were ugly. on Chicago’s side

Boyd gave up four hits and six runs (two earned) in 0.2 IP, and the Brewers went on to win 9-3. Peralta was much better, throwing 5.2 innings of two-run ball and striking out nine.

Can we expect a bounce-back effort out of Chicago’s southpaw at home? I doubt it.

Boyd has been shaky from Aug. 1 onward, sporting a 4.89 ERA over 12 starts with a miserable 18.5% K rate. The Cubs lost seven of those games.

Chicago’s active lineup has never been able to figure out Peralta. In 228 combined plate appearances, the group is hitting .161 and slugging .327 with a 29.8 K%.

I expect the MLB-best Brewers to move on.

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MLB SGP legs

Vaughn over 1.5 bases (+148): I backed Vaughn to go over 1.5 bases against a lefty (Shota Imanaga) in Game 2, and he delivered with a towering three-run blast.

It seems like a no-brainer to go back to him tonight at these odds.

• The first baseman closed the year on a tear, putting forth a .368/.433/.509 slash line in September.

• He’s batting .403 with a 1.064 OPS against LHPs since joining the Brewers.

Vaughn is only 3-for-12 against Boyd, but each of those hits went for extra bases (two doubles, one home run).

There’s also a projected 10 mph breeze blowing out to left field at Wrigley tonight, where Vaughn has pulled all but two of his 14 home runs this year.

Tucker over 0.5 hits (-175): Tucker is having a miserable postseason, and, if my projection holds true, will likely be playing his final game as a Cub.

But that’s neither here nor there — I expect the upcoming free agent to record a hit.

Tucker went 2-for-3 yesterday, raising his playoff batting average to .250. The lefty bat has a platoon advantage against Peralta tonight and has played him well over a solid sample.

He’s 5-for-13 against Peralta with just one strikeout and an 11.9% whiff rate.

Brewers vs. Cubs predictions as of 2:45 p.m. on 10/09/2025.

The Philadelphia Phillies need another road win on Thursday to push their NLDS matchup to a fifth and final game.

The pregame narrative: Philly won Game 3 last night, 8-2, against a Los Angeles Dodgers squad that had won its first four playoff matchups. The Dodgers are slight favourites to win tonight’s home matchup and advance to the NLCS.

Check out my Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions for Oct. 9, featuring prop bets on Cristopher Sanchez and Teoscar Hernandez.

Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions

Parlay: Sanchez over 5.5 Ks | Phillies +0.5 – F5 | Hernandez over 0.5 hits (+360)

Sanchez over 5.5 strikeouts (-122): Philadelphia lost Game 1 with Sanchez on the mound, but I wouldn’t hang the L on him.

The nasty left-hander tossed 5.2 innings of two-run ball, striking out eight and leaving with the lead. His bullpen failed him.

In a do-or-die game, Sanchez’s leash could be shorter than usual. But do you really want to rush to a bullpen that couldn’t hold its end of the bargain when he last pitched?

• In three outings vs. the Dodgers this year, Sanchez is 3-0 vs. this prop. He has 23 Ks over 18.1 innings in that span.

• Dating back to the start of August, Sanchez has a 2.45 ERA over 12 starts while averaging 6.8 Ks per game.

According to Baseball Savant, Sanchez ranks in the 84th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate and walk rate.

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MLB SGP legs

Phillies +0.5 – first five innings (-132): This is another way to back the Sanchez-led Phillies, who are 2-1 vs. this wager in his three starts against L.A. this year.

The Phillies are 3-0 on this F5 run line in this series, too.

Tyler Glasnow will start for the Dodgers, and you could argue he’s had too much rest. He was available out of the bullpen in the wild-card series but didn’t pitch, meaning he hasn’t worked in a game in nearly two weeks.

Glasnow’s only start against the Phillies this season was all the way back in April, so I’m not going to put much stock in it.

But it was a disaster, as he allowed two hits, five walks and five earned runs in just 2.0 IP.

Since Glasnow returned from the injured list in July, the Dodgers are 4-9 vs. a -0.5 F5 run line in his outings.

Hernandez over 0.5 hits (-190): Hernandez couldn’t crack Sanchez in Game 1, striking out three times against the southpaw before belting the go-ahead homer off Phillies reliever Matt Strahm later on.

The ex-Blue Jay still has solid numbers vs. Sanchez, though, and against LHPs in his career.

• vs. Sanchez: 5-for-15, two HRs, two doubles (.867 SLG)

• vs. LHPs: .275/.329/.549 slash line, 136 wRC+

Hernandez was hitless last time out, but he’d cashed this bet in 10 straight playoff games before that. And he’s still 7-for-21 with a 1.173 OPS through five postseason games this year.

Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions as of 9:20 a.m. on 10/09/2025.

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