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Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 5 ALCS prop picks: Back Vladdy, Gausman, Clement and Varsho

Game 5 of the ALCS between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners is set for 6:08 p.m. ET on Friday at T-Mobile Park.

The pregame narrative: The winner will take a 3-2 series lead before the ALCS concludes in Toronto. Neither team has won at home yet, with blowouts in each of the last three games.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks for Oct. 17, featuring predictions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kevin Gausman, Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks

Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+104)

It’s hard to ignore a plus-money price on Guerrero.

The Blue Jays star has been on another level during Toronto’s eight playoff games after posting a top-15 mark in wRC+ in the regular season.

.455/.500/.970
5 homers
11 RBI
9 runs scored

He has cleared this line in five of eight games and struck out only once in 38 plate appearances.

Guerrero and the Blue Jays will see Bryce Miller, who, along with Seattle’s bullpen, held the first baseman hitless in Game 1.

That said, two of the top six balls in Game 1 with the highest exit velocity were struck by Guerrero at 107-plus mph, and both off Miller.

Guerrero is consistently putting the ball in play and making loud contact.

Key stat: Guerrero leads all postseason hitters with a 290 wRC+.

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Blue Jays best bets

Gausman over 15.5 outs (-117): Toronto’s No. 1 starter gets the Mariners for the second time this series.

Gausman was yanked after 76 pitches in Game 1 but delivered a strong performance:

5.2 IP
3 H, 2 R
1 BB, 5 K

It marked the second time this postseason he worked 5.2 innings, making him 2-0 vs. this line.

Blue Jays manager John Schneider is unlikely to give Gausman a ton of rope after a brilliant Game 4 performance from Max Scherzer and an offensive eruption that helped save the bullpen from any high-leverage innings.

There’s also an off day baked in before Game 6.

That said, Gausman has generally been throwing the ball exceptionally well for months, and he’s by no means an auto-yank once the top of the order comes around for the third time.

Gausman was 12-3 vs. this line over his final 15 starts of the season.

He pitched to a 2.97 ERA (3.01 FIP) over that stretch with a well-above average 25.7 K%.

MLB prop picks

Clement 1+ RBI (+255): Clement has been a hitting machine, batting .452 this postseason with multi-hit games in five contests.

He moved up in the order to sixth last night. Assuming he’s there again, I love this price.

Clement is a free swinger (he hasn’t walked this postseason but only struck out twice), so his chances of putting the ball in play are high.

Toronto has done a terrific job getting on base, meaning there’s a good shot for Clement (six postseason RBI) to hit with runners on.

Outside of the first two ALCS contests, the Blue Jays have scored five-plus runs in every postseason game.

Varsho 1+ hit (-141): Varsho has a lot of swing and miss in his game and is more of a thumper than a great hitter. But he’s batting .281 this postseason with a hit in half of his contests.

His defence is great, so he’s at little risk of a substitution, meaning we’re probably looking at four-plus plate appearances.

For those thinking about matchups later: While Varsho does struggle to hit left-handed pitching, Seattle’s top southpaw Gabe Speier threw 32 pitches over 1.1 high-stress innings last night.

Speier was the one who walked Varsho in an eight-pitch battle.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 11:35 a.m. on 10/17/2025.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Game 4 NLCS prop picks and predictions: Fade two-way Shohei Ohtani at the plate

Shohei Ohtani will be on the mound Friday night with an opportunity to send the Los Angeles Dodgers back to the World Series.

The pregame narrative: The reigning champions have a 3-0 series lead over the top-seeded Brewers and are favoured to finish the job at home. Ohtani has been spectacular on the mound this year, but his offensive production typically declines when he’s working in a two-way capacity.

Check out my Brewers vs. Dodgers prop picks for NLDS Game 4, featuring predictions on Ohtani and Brice Turang.

Dodgers vs. Brewers picks

Best bet: Turang under 0.5 hits (+110)

Turang took a big step offensively this season, posting a .288/.359/.435 slash line for the Brewers as part of a 5.5 bWAR campaign.

The reigning NL Platinum Glove winner (i.e., voted as the best of all Gold Glove recipients) seems to have a promising career ahead. But it’s been a rough postseason for the 25-year-old, and Ohtani likely won’t make things any easier.

After a two-hit game in the NLDS opener, Turang is just 2-for-27 (.074) with 10 strikeouts.

All in all, Turang gone under 0.5 hits in five of eight playoff games.

Ohtani has allowed just 13 hits and four runs over his past 25.2 innings.

Ohtani does his best work at home, and he’s also better against left-hitting batters. More bad news for Turang.

In seven starts at Dodger Stadium this year, Ohtani has a 1.71 ERA, a 12.9 K/9 and a .151 opponent batting average.

Against LHBs this year, Ohtani has a 38.6% K rate and a .179 opponent BA. Disgusting stuff.

Key stat: Based on Baseball Savant’s metrics, Turang has largely earned his woeful playoff production. He has a .125 BA and a .171 xBA — along with an unsightly 39.4% K rate.

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MLB best bets

Ohtani under 1.5 total bases (-112): Ohtani tripled in the first inning of NLCS Game 3, so I’m glad I didn’t make this pick yesterday.

I’m willing to fly in the face of the NL-MVP-to-be, though, due to the fact that he’s pitching Friday night. His offensive numbers tend to take a dive when he’s on the mound.

Ohtani has made 10 starts as a pitcher since the all-star break. In that span, he is 7-for-38 (.184) at the plate with 17 strikeouts.

On Oct. 4, in his first (and so far only) career postseason outing as a pitcher, Ohtani went 0-for-4 with four Ks and a walk.

Without knowing the Brewers’ exact pitching plans, it’s difficult to dive too deeply into the matchups Ohtani will see tonight.

But he’s struggled as a hitter throughout the postseason so far, so I’m comfortable plugging my nose and predicting this under.

Ohtani has a .158/.273/.368 slash line in nine playoff games and has cashed this under seven times.

Brewers vs. Dodgers picks made at 11:13 a.m. on 10/17/2025.

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Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 5 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on George Springer, Cal Raleigh to generate offence in Seattle

Can the Toronto Blue Jays take all three ALCS road games in Seattle? They’ll have an opportunity to do so in Game 5 on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: The best-of-seven ALCS is now effectively a best-of-three after Toronto evened things up yesterday. Tonight’s matchup is a pick’em with Kevin Gausman and Bryce Miller on the mound.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions for ALCS Game 5, featuring prop bets on George Springer and Cal Raleigh.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Springer over 1.5 bases | Raleigh over 0.5 hits | Over 7 runs (+250)

Springer over 1.5 total bases (+115): Springer started off the ALCS with a bang, homering on the first pitch he saw from Miller in Game 1.

After a renaissance regular season, Springer has kept his foot on the gas in October. He’s slugging .611 in eight games and is 5-0 vs. this prop in his past five.

Springer is 2-for-9 with a pair of homers off Miller, and there’s reason to believe he’s been shortchanged in this matchup. According to Baseball Savant, Springer has a .353 xBA and a 1.189 xSLG in those nine at-bats.

From the top of the Blue Jays’ lineup, Springer will have a shot at setting the tone again on Friday.

With his 98th-percentile xSLG (.592) and xBA (.303), this is a dangerous hitter that I want to continue buying in on.

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MLB SGP legs

Raleigh over 0.5 hits (-175): Raleigh turned in a rare hitless effort on Thursday. But if the Mariners are going to right the ship, he’ll almost certainly be one of the guys leading the way.

The AL MVP contender is still having a very strong postseason, with a .314/.429/.600 slash line in nine games. He’s 7-2 vs. this prop.

During the regular season, Raleigh led the majors in homers (60). He also finished fourth in OPS (.948), behind only Springer, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

The HR Derby champ has seen Gausman well, batting 8-for-17 (.471) with four homers.

In Game 1, Raleigh singled off Gausman in the first and belted a game-tying homer in the sixth to spark a Seattle win.

Behind Raleigh, the trio of Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor has been awfully effective. It doesn’t make sense to pitch around the switch-hitting catcher, and I like his chances of getting something good to hit.

Toronto vs. Seattle over/under prediction

Over 7 runs (-112): I thought T-Mobile Park was supposed to be pitcher-friendly.

According to Baseball Savant’s park factors data, Seattle’s home stadium has yielded 17% fewer runs than league average over the past three seasons. In most respects, it’s considered the least offence-friendly park in the majors.

But this over is 5-0 when the Jays and Mariners have met there this season. Their average total in those matchups is 11.0 runs.

Toronto and Seattle also have the two highest overs rates in MLB this season (56.7% and 56.0%), per Team Rankings.

In the first Gausman/Miller go-round, the final score was 3-1 in favour of the Mariners. But the Blue Jays had a .241 xBA that translated to just a 2-for-29 (.069) showing.

Both offences are plenty familiar with the opposing pitching staffs at this point, having played four times in the previous five days.

I’ll gladly back an over that the winning team has cleared by itself in three straight games.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions as of 9:55 a.m. on 10/17/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 5 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on George Springer, Cal Raleigh to generate offence in Seattle

Can the Toronto Blue Jays take all three ALCS road games in Seattle? They’ll have an opportunity to do so in Game 5 on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: The best-of-seven ALCS is now effectively a best-of-three after Toronto evened things up yesterday. Tonight’s matchup is a pick’em with Kevin Gausman and Bryce Miller on the mound.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions for ALCS Game 5, featuring prop bets on George Springer and Cal Raleigh.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Springer over 1.5 bases | Raleigh over 0.5 hits | Over 7 runs (+390)

Springer over 1.5 total bases (+116): Springer started off the ALCS with a bang, homering on the first pitch he saw from Miller in Game 1.

After a renaissance regular season, Springer has kept his foot on the gas in October. He’s slugging .611 in eight games and is 5-0 vs. this prop in his past five.

Springer is 2-for-9 with a pair of homers off Miller, and there’s reason to believe he’s been shortchanged in this matchup. According to Baseball Savant, Springer has a .353 xBA and a 1.189 xSLG in those nine at-bats.

From the top of the Blue Jays’ lineup, Springer will have a shot at setting the tone again on Friday.

With his 98th-percentile xSLG (.592) and xBA (.303), this is a dangerous hitter that I want to continue buying in on.

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MLB SGP legs

Raleigh over 0.5 hits (-175): Raleigh turned in a rare hitless effort on Thursday. But if the Mariners are going to right the ship, he’ll almost certainly be one of the guys leading the way.

The AL MVP contender is still having a very strong postseason, with a .314/.429/.600 slash line in nine games. He’s 7-2 vs. this prop.

During the regular season, Raleigh led the majors in homers (60). He also finished fourth in OPS (.948), behind only Springer, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

The HR Derby champ has seen Gausman well, batting 8-for-17 (.471) with four homers.

In Game 1, Raleigh singled off Gausman in the first and belted a game-tying homer in the sixth to spark a Seattle win.

Behind Raleigh, the trio of Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor has been awfully effective. It doesn’t make sense to pitch around the switch-hitting catcher, and I like his chances of getting something good to hit.

Toronto vs. Seattle over/under prediction

Over 7 runs (-112): I thought T-Mobile Park was supposed to be pitcher-friendly.

According to Baseball Savant’s park factors data, Seattle’s home stadium has yielded 17% fewer runs than league average over the past three seasons. In most respects, it’s considered the least offence-friendly park in the majors.

But this over is 5-0 when the Jays and Mariners have met there this season. Their average total in those matchups is 11.0 runs.

Toronto and Seattle also have the two highest overs rates in MLB this season (56.7% and 56.0%), per Team Rankings.

In the first Gausman/Miller go-round, the final score was 3-1 in favour of the Mariners. But the Blue Jays had a .241 xBA that translated to just a 2-for-29 (.069) showing.

Both offences are plenty familiar with the opposing pitching staffs at this point, having played four times in the previous five days.

I’ll gladly back an over that the winning team has cleared by itself in three straight games.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions as of 9:25 a.m. on 10/17/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 4 ALCS prop picks and predictions: Back Springer and Varsho, fade Castillo

Thursday’s postseason doubleheader features Game 4 of the ALCS between the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s bats erupted for 13 runs on 18 hits last night to make this a 2-1 series. I expect the bats to be a factor again tonight and am targeting two big Game 3 performers: George Springer and Daulton Varsho.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks for the Oct. 16 playoff game at T-Mobile Park, featuring a prop prediction on starter Luis Castillo.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks

Best bet: Castillo under 15.5 outs (-154)

I wanted the under on Castillo’s 4.5 K line but this is a better price, and the reasoning has overlap.

Game 3 starter George Kirby came in hot with monster strikeout numbers and got torched. I successfully faded him on 4.5 Ks, making starting pitchers 0-7 vs. that line against Toronto this postseason.

Castillo had a good September, but he missed bats at the worst rate of his career and was ordinary against the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS.

The Blue Jays were the hardest team in MLB to retire on strikes. That hasn’t changed in the playoffs.

Seattle pitchers have 16 Ks through three games (Jays pitchers have 35). But why all this talk about Ks when the pick is an outs prop?

Well, I expect the Jays to do what they do better than any team tonight — put the ball in play. If the contact remotely resembles last night, we’re looking at a really short outing here.

Castillo’s hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant, was easily the highest of his career.

Not surprisingly, so was his expected slugging mark. And he had a below-average K rate for the first time ever.

Even if Toronto cools, this has turned into a fairly big postseason line that I believe is worthy of an under play.

Toronto needs this more than Seattle, but I expect the Mariners to be aggressive in a game with huge swing potential.

The Mariners primarily used mop-up guys after Kirby last night, so their high-leverage arms are in a good spot after having Monday off.

Key stat: Cam Schlittler and Bryce Miller are the only starters to go more than 5.0 innings vs. Toronto this postseason.

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MLB best bets

Springer over 1.5 total bases (+115): Springer is a playoff performer who has been mashing the ball during this run.

He was 3-for-6 with six total bases last night, including a solo bomb to straightaway center.

Six of his eight postseason hits have gone for extra bases, demonstrating his ability to cash this in one plate appearance.

But Springer can flat-out hit, so a multi-hit game is certainly a possibility for Toronto’s leadoff man.

Springer was arguably the best hitter in MLB in the second half:

1st in wRC+ (210)
2nd in SLG (.667)
2nd in BA (.369)

Varsho 1+ RBI (+225): This is a huge number for a power bat who smashes righties, which Seattle is heavy on.

Varsho has only driven in runs in two playoff games, but he has six total after cashing a pair of runners with a game-changing double last night.

He’s batting .321 and slugging .679.

The left-handed hitter slugged .591 off right-handers in the regular season, hitting 18 of his 20 homers off them.

Varsho has hit sixth in four straight games and I love his chances of stepping up with runners on base.

Toronto is No. 1 in average (.300) and second in on-base percentage (.350) this postseason.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 11:40 a.m. on 10/16/2025.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Game 3 NLCS prop picks and predictions: Back Ohtani and fade Glasnow in L.A.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers’ NLCS shifts to the West Coast for a pivotal Game 3 on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: L.A. won both games in Milwaukee and can put a stranglehold on this matchup tonight. The Dodgers are heavily favoured behind Tyler Glasnow, who is coming off a stellar performance against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Brewers haven’t announced a starter at the time of writing.

Check out my Brewers vs. Dodgers prop picks for NLDS Game 3, featuring a best bet on Shohei Ohtani.

Dodgers vs. Brewers picks

Best bet: Ohtani over 1.5 bases (+100)

Ohtani is batting just .147 this postseason and has failed to cash this prop in seven straight games.

That can’t last forever, right?

The soon-to-be MVP led MLB in total bases (391) this season, belting 55 home runs with a 1.014 OPS. I’m betting on a regression to the mean tonight.

It’s unclear who will get the ball for Milwaukee, but left-hander Jose Quintana seems like a strong choice to start the game and throw multiple innings.

Ohtani is 2-for-6 against Quintana with a pair of home runs.

After that, Jacob Misiorowski should factor in. The hard-throwing rookie has been great in the postseason and carved the Dodgers up earlier this year, striking out 12 in 6.0 IP … but Ohtani took him deep for 431 feet to begin that ballgame.

You can pull up stats for Ohtani destroying pretty much any pitcher in baseball. It’s an anomaly that he’s been so bad in the playoffs so far, meaning, in my opinion, this line has value.

Key stat: Ohtani slugged .622 at Dodger Stadium this year.

MLB best bets

Glasnow under 15.5 outs (-118): Los Angeles’ bullpen has only thrown one inning this series, after Yoshinobu Yamamoto followed up Blake Snell’s 8.0 innings, throwing a one-hit complete game.

Dave Roberts will have everybody available if Glasnow gets in trouble tonight, and I can see the righty getting an early yank.

Milwaukee’s offence was among the best in baseball this season, and I expect it to rebound in what’s essentially a must-win game.

Two hallmarks of the Brewers’ success are drawing walks and putting the ball in play. They had the fifth-highest walk rate (9.1%) and fifth-lowest K rate (20.3%) in MLB this season.

Glasnow has struggled with his command this year, owning a seventh percentile walk rate. He’s issued 16 free passes in his last 29.1 IP (five in 7.2 IP this postseason).

The righty averaged exactly 15.1 outs during the regular season, so it’s not like this is some crazy playoff-adjusted line.

Brewers vs. Dodgers picks made at 9:14 a.m. on 10/16/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 4 ALCS prop picks and predictions: Back Springer and Varsho, fade Castillo

Thursday’s postseason doubleheader features Game 4 of the ALCS between the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s bats erupted for 13 runs on 18 hits last night to make this a 2-1 series. I expect the bats to be a factor again tonight and am targeting two big Game 3 performers: George Springer and Daulton Varsho.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks for the Oct. 16 playoff game at T-Mobile Park, featuring a prop prediction on starter Luis Castillo.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks

Best bet: Castillo under 15.5 outs (-152)

I wanted the under on Castillo’s 4.5 K line but this is a better price, and the reasoning has overlap.

Game 3 starter George Kirby came in hot with monster strikeout numbers and got torched. I successfully faded him on 4.5 Ks, making starting pitchers 0-7 vs. that line against Toronto this postseason.

Castillo had a good September, but he missed bats at the worst rate of his career and was ordinary against the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS.

The Blue Jays were the hardest team in MLB to retire on strikes. That hasn’t changed in the playoffs.

Seattle pitchers have 16 Ks through three games (Jays pitchers have 35). But why all this talk about Ks when the pick is an outs prop?

Well, I expect the Jays to do what they do better than any team tonight — put the ball in play. If the contact remotely resembles last night, we’re looking at a really short outing here.

Castillo’s hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant, was easily the highest of his career.

Not surprisingly, so was his expected slugging mark. And he had a below-average K rate for the first time ever.

Even if Toronto cools, this has turned into a fairly big postseason line that I believe is worthy of an under play.

Toronto needs this more than Seattle, but I expect the Mariners to be aggressive in a game with huge swing potential.

The Mariners primarily used mop-up guys after Kirby last night, so their high-leverage arms are in a good spot after having Monday off.

Key stat: Cam Schlittler and Bryce Miller are the only starters to go more than 5.0 innings vs. Toronto this postseason.

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MLB best bets

Springer over 1.5 total bases (+108): Springer is a playoff performer who has been mashing the ball during this run.

He was 3-for-6 with six total bases last night, including a solo bomb to straightaway center.

Six of his eight postseason hits have gone for extra bases, demonstrating his ability to cash this in one plate appearance.

But Springer can flat-out hit, so a multi-hit game is certainly a possibility for Toronto’s leadoff man.

Springer was arguably the best hitter in MLB in the second half:

1st in wRC+ (210)
2nd in SLG (.667)
2nd in BA (.369)

Varsho 1+ RBI (+225): This is a huge number for a power bat who smashes righties, which Seattle is heavy on.

Varsho has only driven in runs in two playoff games, but he has six total after cashing a pair of runners with a game-changing double last night.

He’s batting .321 and slugging .679.

The left-handed hitter slugged .591 off right-handers in the regular season, hitting 18 of his 20 homers off them.

Varsho has hit sixth in four straight games and I love his chances of stepping up with runners on base.

Toronto is No. 1 in average (.300) and second in on-base percentage (.350) this postseason.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 11:40 a.m. on 10/16/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 4 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on Addison Barger to help drive Toronto’s offence

After an overdue offensive explosion Wednesday, the Toronto Blue Jays are a game away from levelling the ALCS.

The pregame narrative: The Jays blew out the Seattle Mariners, 13-4, to set up a pivotal Game 4 matchup on Thursday night at T-Mobile Park. Luis Castillo will pitch for the home team, opposite Max Scherzer in his Toronto postseason debut.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions for ALCS Game 4, featuring prop bets on Addison Barger and Anthony Santander.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Barger to record a hit | Santander under 0.5 hits | Over 5.5 runs (+300)

Barger to record a hit (-138): Barger broke out of a mini-slump in a major way on Wednesday night.

After an 0-for-10 start to the ALCS, Barger blasted a 414-foot home run late into Game 3. Here’s hoping he can breathe a sigh of relief and keep on slugging for the Jays.

The left-hitting third baseman has seen the ball well from Castillo already this season, batting 3-for-5 with three doubles and a walk.

LHBs have a .278 average and an .814 OPS off Castillo this season.

Barger often gets his money’s worth when he swings, evidenced by his 93rd-percentile bat speed and 91st-percentile hard-hit rate (per Baseball Savant).

With the platoon advantage, Barger over 1.5 bases at +190 is a pretty interesting solo play. But I’ll stick to this safer pick in a parlay format.

Barger has a .480 SLG vs. right-handed pitchers this season.

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MLB SGP legs

Santander under 0.5 hits (+105): As a switch-hitter, Santander never explicitly has a platoon disadvantage. But he hasn’t set the world on fire from the left side, and his numbers against Castillo are rough.

Santander batted .185 with a .606 OPS from the left side this year.

Against Castillo, Santander is 1-for-9 with three strikeouts.

The first-year Blue Jay missed significant time this year due to injury, and he doesn’t seem to be 100% right in October.

He was scratched from the lineup in Game 2 with lower back tightness, and he was lifted in the fifth inning of Game 3 for a defensive replacement.

Sure, the game seemed largely out of hand at that point. But Santander’s weak fielding profile could be a factor that forces him out of any game early.

In five postseason starts, Santander is 3-for-15 (.200) and has been pulled early three times.

Toronto vs. Seattle alt total prediction

Over 5.5 runs (-275): The negative correlation with the Santander under makes this super-juiced leg a worthy SGP addition.

This over is 7-2 in this year’s matchups between Toronto and Seattle. The average total in those games is 9.9 runs.

Castillo has allowed eight runs on 17 hits in 10.0 innings vs. the Blue Jays this year. Both of his starts cleared this number with ease.

Castillo has been superb in recent starts, with just three runs allowed over his past 30.0 IP. But even if we see that version of him, rather than the one the Jays beat up on this year, there’s a pathway to this over.

Scherzer has allowed four or more runs in six of his past seven outings. In that span, he’s allowed 25 runs and 37 hits in 25.0 IP. Woof.

Toronto and Seattle rank No. 1 and 2, respectively, in overs rate this year (both over 55.0%), per Team Rankings.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions as of 9:55 a.m. on 10/16/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 4 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on Addison Barger to help drive Toronto’s offence

After an overdue offensive explosion Wednesday, the Toronto Blue Jays are a game away from levelling the ALCS.

The pregame narrative: The Jays blew out the Seattle Mariners, 13-4, to set up a pivotal Game 4 matchup on Thursday night at T-Mobile Park. Luis Castillo will pitch for the home team, opposite Max Scherzer in his Toronto postseason debut.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions for ALCS Game 4, featuring prop bets on Addison Barger and Anthony Santander.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Barger to record a hit | Santander under 0.5 hits | Over 5.5 runs (+410)

Barger to record a hit (-132): Barger broke out of a mini-slump in a major way on Wednesday night.

After an 0-for-10 start to the ALCS, Barger blasted a 414-foot home run late into Game 3. Here’s hoping he can breathe a sigh of relief and keep on slugging for the Jays.

The left-hitting third baseman has seen the ball well from Castillo already this season, batting 3-for-5 with three doubles and a walk.

LHBs have a .278 average and an .814 OPS off Castillo this season.

Barger often gets his money’s worth when he swings, evidenced by his 93rd-percentile bat speed and 91st-percentile hard-hit rate (per Baseball Savant).

With the platoon advantage, Barger over 1.5 bases at +190 is a pretty interesting solo play. But I’ll stick to this safer pick in a parlay format.

Barger has a .480 SLG vs. right-handed pitchers this season.

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MLB SGP legs

Santander under 0.5 hits (+110): As a switch-hitter, Santander never explicitly has a platoon disadvantage. But he hasn’t set the world on fire from the left side, and his numbers against Castillo are rough.

Santander batted .185 with a .606 OPS from the left side this year.

Against Castillo, Santander is 1-for-9 with three strikeouts.

The first-year Blue Jay missed significant time this year due to injury, and he doesn’t seem to be 100% right in October.

He was scratched from the lineup in Game 2 with lower back tightness, and he was lifted in the fifth inning of Game 3 for a defensive replacement.

Sure, the game seemed largely out of hand at that point. But Santander’s weak fielding profile could be a factor that forces him out of any game early.

In five postseason starts, Santander is 3-for-15 (.200) and has been pulled early three times.

Toronto vs. Seattle alt total prediction

Over 5.5 runs (-315): The negative correlation with the Santander under makes this super-juiced leg a worthy SGP addition.

This over is 7-2 in this year’s matchups between Toronto and Seattle. The average total in those games is 9.9 runs.

Castillo has allowed eight runs on 17 hits in 10.0 innings vs. the Blue Jays this year. Both of his starts cleared this number with ease.

Castillo has been superb in recent starts, with just three runs allowed over his past 30.0 IP. But even if we see that version of him, rather than the one the Jays beat up on this year, there’s a pathway to this over.

Scherzer has allowed four or more runs in six of his past seven outings. In that span, he’s allowed 25 runs and 37 hits in 25.0 IP. Woof.

Toronto and Seattle rank No. 1 and 2, respectively, in overs rate this year (both over 55.0%), per Team Rankings.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions as of 8:55 a.m. on 10/16/2025.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Game 3 NLCS prop picks and predictions: Back Ohtani and fade Glasnow in L.A.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers’ NLCS shifts to the West Coast for a pivotal Game 3 on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: L.A. won both games in Milwaukee and can put a stranglehold on this matchup tonight. The Dodgers are heavily favoured behind Tyler Glasnow, who is coming off a stellar performance against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Brewers haven’t announced a starter at the time of writing.

Check out my Brewers vs. Dodgers prop picks for NLDS Game 3, featuring a best bet on Shohei Ohtani.

Dodgers vs. Brewers picks

Best bet: Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-107)

Ohtani is batting just .147 this postseason and has failed to cash this prop in seven straight games.

That can’t last forever, right?

The soon-to-be MVP led MLB in total bases (391) this season, belting 55 home runs with a 1.014 OPS. I’m betting on a regression to the mean tonight.

It’s unclear who will get the ball for Milwaukee, but left-hander Jose Quintana seems like a strong choice to start the game and throw multiple innings.

Ohtani is 2-for-6 against Quintana with a pair of home runs.

After that, Jacob Misiorowski should factor in. The hard-throwing rookie has been great in the postseason and carved the Dodgers up earlier this year, striking out 12 in 6.0 IP … but Ohtani took him deep for 431 feet to begin that ballgame.

You can pull up stats for Ohtani destroying pretty much any pitcher in baseball. It’s an anomaly that he’s been so bad in the playoffs so far, meaning, in my opinion, this line has value.

Key stat: Ohtani slugged .622 at Dodger Stadium this year.

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MLB best bets

Glasnow under 15.5 outs (-107): Los Angeles’ bullpen has only thrown one inning this series, after Yoshinobu Yamamoto followed up Blake Snell’s 8.0 innings, throwing a one-hit complete game.

Dave Roberts will have everybody available if Glasnow gets in trouble tonight, and I can see the righty getting an early yank.

Milwaukee’s offence was among the best in baseball this season, and I expect it to rebound in what’s essentially a must-win game.

Two hallmarks of the Brewers’ success are drawing walks and putting the ball in play. They had the fifth-highest walk rate (9.1%) and fifth-lowest K rate (20.3%) in MLB this season.

Glasnow has struggled with his command this year, owning a seventh percentile walk rate. He’s issued 16 free passes in his last 29.1 IP (five in 7.2 IP this postseason).

The righty averaged exactly 15.1 outs during the regular season, so it’s not like this is some crazy playoff-adjusted line.

Brewers vs. Dodgers picks made at 9:14 a.m. on 10/16/2025.

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