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Best MLB prop bets Sept. 11: Back Jose Soriano and Ramon Laureano in late slate

I’m targeting three players for Thursday’s light MLB slate, including San Diego Padres outfielder Ramon Laureano on two markets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Laureano is swinging a hot stick, hits in a run-producing spot, and will enjoy an excellent matchup against the Colorado Rockies.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 11, featuring predictions on Jose Soriano and Stephen Kolek.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Kolek over 16.5 outs (-114)

There are several reasons why I like Kolek to hit the over on this prop tonight. Let’s start with his opponent, the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland has scored three runs or fewer in five of its last seven games.

The Guardians are 28th in wRC+ vs. righties. They’re 27th in wRC+ in the second half.

St. Louis is the only team getting on base at a lower clip since the all-star break.

Kolek will enjoy this struggling offence at Progressive Field, a below-average offensive environment.

While the wind isn’t expected to be strong in Cleveland, it’s expected to be blowing in, potentially weakening the ability to put the ball in the seats.

And that’s not something that has plagued Kolek anyway.

The right-hander’s HR/9 rate is well below league average, and he doesn’t issue many free passes. Kolek isn’t a big strikeout arm, either.

Those factors should theoretically allow him to keep his pitch counts down and work deep, and that’s exactly what he’s been doing.

Kolek is coming off a seven-inning gem, the longest he’s gone since pitching a shutout in May.

The righty has topped this line in four consecutive outings and has allowed a total of five runs over his last three starts.

On top of that, the Royals used an all-hands-on-deck approach last night, deploying six arms vs. the Guardians.

Key stat: Kolek has worked into the sixth inning in 13 of his 16 starts, clearing this line 10 times.

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Best MLB picks

Soriano over 15.5 outs (-132): The Los Angeles Angels right-hander has thrown the ball really well in three of his last five starts.

In the other two, he was clobbered by the Athletics, including his last outing (eight runs and five walks over 2.1 innings).

Soriano now looks for a rebound at one of the most pitcher-friendly spots in MLB, T-Mobile Park.

The Seattle Mariners have been swinging the bats well, but this is a light line for Soriano, and the Angels went through a slew of bullpen arms in yesterday’s 4-3 win.

Soriano is 7-2. vs. this line over his last nine outings and cleared it in 19 of 29 starts on the season.

Laureano over 1.5 bases (+112) & 1+ RBI (+135): Laureano has been a beast since joining the Padres, batting .304/.360/.551 with 25 RBI in 37 games.

He has a career-best .893 OPS on the season and is one homer shy of the personal-best 24 he blasted back in 2019.

Laureano has hit fifth in every game this month, putting him behind the Padres’ most potent bats, including all-stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado.

Getting Colorado’s pitching provides a good opportunity to do damage.

The Rockies are starting McCade Brown, who was demolished by San Diego for six runs on five hits over 1.2 innings last weekend. Brown has a 12.54 ERA and 2.36 WHIP through his first three MLB starts.

Following Brown is a Rockies bullpen that has an MLB-worst 6.13 ERA in the second half.

MLB prop picks made at 2:15 p.m. ET on 09/11/2025.

Astros vs. Blue Jays SGP predictions Sept. 11: Fade Guerrero, Pena in rubber match at Rogers Centre

A crucial series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros is up for grabs on Thursday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Toronto and Houston split a pair of low-scoring games to begin this series, and now the battle of division leaders goes to a rubber match. Both Kevin Gausman and Cristian Javier have fared well against these respective lineups, which means runs could be at a premium again.

Check out my Astros vs. Blue Jays for Sept. 11, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jeremy Pena.

Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions

Parlay: Guerrero under 1.5 baess | Pena under 1.5 bases | Gausman over 4.5 Ks (+300)

Guerrero under 1.5 total bases (-129): Before yesterday’s 0-for-4 showing, Guerrero had compiled six consecutive multi-hit games. So if you’re questioning this pick, I get it.

But all MLB hitters have peaks and valleys — even elite ones like Guerrero. Prior to his mini-tear, Vladdy had gone 3-for-30 over a nine-game stretch.

All told, he’s gone under his bases prop in nine of his past 15 starts. And I expect more of the same with Javier on the bump.

Guerrero is 0-for-6 with two walks and two strikeouts vs. Javier.

Javier walks a lot of batters, and walks don’t contribute to total bases counts. The right-hander has a 3.57 BB/9 since 2022, which is the 18th-highest among 150 pitchers in that span.

Guerrero has an 89th-percentile walk rate (12.5%), per Baseball Savant, and it’s more likely that the Astros will want to pitch around him with Bo Bichette out of the lineup.

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MLB SGP legs

Pena under 1.5 total bases (-190): Pena has underwhelmed at the plate recently, and combining that with his brutal numbers vs. Gausman, I think this is a worthwhile fade to add to the SGP.

Since Aug. 16, Pena has a .232/.303/.364 slash line, with more strikeouts (24) than hits (23). He’s gone under 1.5 bases in 14 of 23 starts in that span.

Pena is 1-for-11 with six Ks against Gausman.

The shortstop has solid contact quality, evidenced by his 82nd-percentile xBA (.280), but there’s a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. Gausman has clearly taken advantage of that.

Pena has a ninth-percentile chase rate and a 28th-percentile whiff rate.

Gausman over 4.5 strikeouts (-205): Pena is far from the only Houston hitter that Gausman has carved up.

The Astros’ lineup is collectively 18-for-107 (.168) with 50 strikeouts against Toronto’s veteran right-hander.

Gausman has garnered a 42% K rate and a 37.4% whiff rate against this lineup. Those are both miles ahead of the league-average rates (22.0 K%, 25.1 whiff%).

Gausman struck out six when he faced the Astros in April. He’s also 7-2 vs. this prop in his past nine outings, averaging 6.4 Ks in that span.

Blue Jays picks as of 8:36 a.m. on 09/11/2025.

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Best MLB prop bets Sept. 10: Back star Mookie Betts on Wednesday

Los Angeles Dodgers’ shortstop Mookie Betts headlines Wednesday’s MLB props.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Betts has been excellent recently for L.A. and has the opportunity to stay hot against the Colorado Rockies.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 10, featuring predictions on Logan Allen and Bobby Witt Jr.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Betts over 1.5 total bases (-130)

This marks the third straight night I’ve been in on this prop. Until I’m given good reason not to touch Betts around even money, I’ll keep playing him on this market.

And Colorado Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland is not good enough reason.

Freeland is coming off a dominant start against the San Diego Padres (8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K). And he has handled Betts well over a large sample (.205 BA in 41 career plate appearances) in the past.

But Betts is cooking and I’m all aboard the Mookie train.

The Los Angeles Dodgers star is having his best stretch of the season, batting .300/.364/.580 over the last 15 days.

Going back a bit further, Betts has cleared this line 18 times in his last 30 games.

Key stat: The shortstop has recorded two-plus bases more frequently than any player this season, per Team Rankings, and is getting on base at a .368 clip in the second half.

Best MLB picks

Witt to score (-104): The Kansas City Royals star has been slow to start the month but is coming off an excellent August and remains one of the most dynamic hitters in the sport.

I like his chances against Allen, the Cleveland Guardians southpaw who has been hit significantly harder by righties over his three-year career.

Witt has thrived with the platoon advantage (.325 BA, .391 OBP) and has consistently done his part to be a scoring threat on a nightly basis.

The shortstop has recorded two-plus bases more frequently than any player this season, per Team Rankings, and is getting on base at a .368 clip in the second half.

Allen under 17.5 outs (-108): A good pitcher’s park against a weak offence works in Allen’s favour tonight.

But the factors working against him are why I’m on this under.

Allen has made six starts since August, clearing this line once.

He has a 5.87 ERA over that six-game stretch and has allowed 17 runs over his last three outings.

Allen has gone under this total in 17 of his 26 starts.

On top of that, Cleveland has a strong bullpen (No. 5 in second-half ERA) and is in the wild-card hunt.

The Guardians have gotten eight innings out of their starters in consecutive games, so that excellent bullpen should be well-rested and ready to be deployed.

MLB prop picks made at 2:41 p.m. ET on 09/10/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 10: Back stars Logan Gilbert, Mookie Betts and Chris Sale on Wednesday

Seattle Mariners ace Logan Gilbert highlights a chunky five-pack of pick recommendations for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Gilbert has an excellent matchup and is at home, a great pitcher’s park where he’s thrived this year. I expect him to work deep and carve up the St. Louis Cardinals.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 10, featuring predictions on Mookie Betts, Chris Sale, Logan Allen and Bobby Witt Jr.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Gilbert over 17.5 outs (-150)

I don’t blame you if you don’t like the price, but it’s a lot worse elsewhere.

Gilbert has a dynamite matchup vs. the Cardinals, who are dead last in MLB in wRC+ since the all-star break.

St. Louis has gotten on base at a sub-.300 clip in the second half, which also ranks 30th among the MLB clubs.

Now factor in this game is at T-Mobile Park, arguably the No. 1 pitching environment in baseball, and I’m not expecting this to be a night where the Cardinals’ offence gets going.

Gilbert has been dominant at home in Seattle, pitching to a 2.15 ERA and holding opponents to a .141 batting average.

Since getting obliterated Aug. 18, Gilbert has thrown six innings in three consecutive starts, allowing five total runs while striking out 26 and walking four.

Key stat: Gilbert is 5-2 vs. this line since the start of August.

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Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 total bases (-105): This marks the third straight night I’ve been in on this prop. Until I’m given good reason not to touch Betts around even money, I’ll keep playing him on this market.

And Colorado Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland is not good enough reason.

Freeland is coming off a dominant start against the San Diego Padres (8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K). And he has handled Betts well over a large sample (.205 BA in 41 career plate appearances) in the past.

But Betts is cooking and I’m all aboard the Mookie train.

The Los Angeles Dodgers star is having his best stretch of the season, batting .300/.364/.580 over the last 15 days.

Going back a bit further, Betts has cleared this line 18 times in his last 30 games.

Witt to score (-104): The Kansas City Royals star has been slow to start the month but is coming off an excellent August and remains one of the most dynamic hitters in the sport.

I like his chances against Allen, the Cleveland Guardians southpaw who has been hit significantly harder by righties over his three-year career.

Witt has thrived with the platoon advantage (.325 BA, .391 OBP) and has consistently done his part to be a scoring threat on a nightly basis.

The shortstop has recorded two-plus bases more frequently than any player this season, per Team Rankings, and is getting on base at a .368 clip in the second half.

MLB prop bets: Wednesday’s best pitching props

Allen under 17.5 outs (-115): A good pitcher’s park against a weak offence works in Allen’s favour tonight.

But the factors working against him are why I’m on this under.

Allen has made six starts since August, clearing this line once.

He has a 5.87 ERA over that six-game stretch and has allowed 17 runs over his last three outings.

Allen has gone under this total in 17 of his 26 starts.

On top of that, Cleveland has a strong bullpen (No. 5 in second-half ERA) and is in the wild-card hunt.

The Guardians have gotten eight innings out of their starters in consecutive games, so that excellent bullpen should be well-rested and ready to be deployed.

Sale over 6.5 Ks (-118): This is all about Sale, not his opponent, the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago is a difficult matchup on K props, but I’m focusing on Sale’s upside here.

The veteran lefty has made two starts since coming off the injured list and dominated both:

Vs. SEA: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 9 K
@ PHI: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K

Sale vs. a 6.5 K line: 6-0 over his last six and 13-4 on the season.

He’s hovering or above the 90th percentile in chase, whiff and K rates.

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings, the only arms with a higher K% are Gilbert, Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal.

MLB prop picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.

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MLB home run picks Sept. 10: Back Teoscar Hernandez, Yordan Alvarez to go deep

Teoscar Hernandez headlines Wednesday’s MLB home run bets.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Hernandez hit his 22nd and 23rd home runs of the season last night, and is in a good spot to add to that total against a lefty at Dodger Stadium. Elsewhere, Yordan Alvarez is a strong pick to hammer a struggling Jose Berrios.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 10.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Hernandez to hit a home run (+265)

Hernandez is a streaky hitter, and I’m hoping yesterday’s two-homer outing lights a fire.

The power bat has logged at least 25 home runs in each of the last four seasons, and is closing in on that mark again.

He’s done most of his damage against lefties and will face a bad one tonight in Kyle Freeland.

Hernandez vs. LHP: .278/.314/.536 splits, 16.2 AB/HR ratio
Hernandez vs. RHP: .234/.272/.429 splits, 20.8 AB/HR ratio

Freeland sports a 5.10 ERA and has the misfortune of playing half of his games at Coors Field. But he’s still gotten hit hard on the road (4.56 ERA, .274 OBA) and by righties (.303/.349/.493 slash line).

The southpaw ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate, K rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Freeland’s one plus is that he doesn’t walk batters (88th percentile BB rate), but that’s a boon for this wager.

Key stat: Hernandez is 1-for-5 against Freeland with a home run. He has a .381 xBA and 1.364 xSLG in those at-bats.

Best HR predictions

Alvarez to hit a home run (+280): Berrios is clinging on for dear life down the stretch.

From July 1 onwards, the Toronto Blue Jays righty has a 5.47 ERA and a 1.8 HR/9 rate. For context, Zach Littell ranks last among qualified pitchers with a 1.9 HR/9 rate this season.

Berrios also ranks in the bottom-third percentile in xERA, xBA, barrel rate, K rate, whiff rate and average exit velocity. Yikes.

Alvarez has seen Berrios plenty and is 3-for-16 against him with a pair of bombs. And the Houston slugger’s .289 xBA and .656 xSLG in those at-bats indicate he’s been a tad unlucky.

Both the pitcher and hitter in this matchup run reverse splits, meaning this isn’t optimized for your typical lefty-on-righty platoon advantage.

But I still like Alvarez, who is batting a blistering .516 this month, to come through.

MLB home run picks made at 10:17 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 10: Back Teoscar Hernandez, Yordan Alvarez to go deep

Teoscar Hernandez headlines Wednesday’s MLB home run bets.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Hernandez hit his 22nd and 23rd home runs of the season last night, and is in a good spot to add to that total against a lefty at Dodger Stadium. Elsewhere, Yordan Alvarez is a strong pick to hammer a struggling Jose Berrios.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 10.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Hernandez to hit a home run (+350)

Hernandez is a streaky hitter, and I’m hoping yesterday’s two-homer outing lights a fire.

The power bat has logged at least 25 home runs in each of the last four seasons, and is closing in on that mark again.

He’s done most of his damage against lefties and will face a bad one tonight in Kyle Freeland.

Hernandez vs. LHP: .278/.314/.536 splits, 16.2 AB/HR ratio
Hernandez vs. RHP: .234/.272/.429 splits, 20.8 AB/HR ratio

Freeland sports a 5.10 ERA and has the misfortune of playing half of his games at Coors Field. But he’s still gotten hit hard on the road (4.56 ERA, .274 OBA) and by righties (.303/.349/.493 slash line).

The southpaw ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate, K rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Freeland’s one plus is that he doesn’t walk batters (88th percentile BB rate), but that’s a boon for this wager.

Key stat: Hernandez is 1-for-5 against Freeland with a home run. He has a .381 xBA and 1.364 xSLG in those at-bats.

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Best HR predictions

Alvarez to hit a home run (+350): Berrios is clinging on for dear life down the stretch.

From July 1 onwards, the Toronto Blue Jays righty has a 5.47 ERA and a 1.8 HR/9 rate. For context, Zach Littell ranks last among qualified pitchers with a 1.9 HR/9 rate this season.

Berrios also ranks in the bottom-third percentile in xERA, xBA, barrel rate, K rate, whiff rate and average exit velocity. Yikes.

Alvarez has seen Berrios plenty and is 3-for-16 against him with a pair of bombs. And the Houston slugger’s .289 xBA and .656 xSLG in those at-bats indicate he’s been a tad unlucky.

Both the pitcher and hitter in this matchup run reverse splits, meaning this isn’t optimized for your typical lefty-on-righty platoon advantage.

But I still like Alvarez, who is batting a blistering .516 this month, to come through.

MLB home run picks made at 10:17 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.

Astros vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 10: Back Toronto’s offence, Addison Barger on Wednesday

The Toronto Blue Jays look for a series win over the Houston Astros on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto authored a two-run, ninth-inning comeback last night to extend its AL East lead to three. The Blue Jays are slight favourites with Jose Berrios pitching opposite Jason Alexander. The Astros have won Alexander’s last seven starts despite some horrific underlying numbers.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Astros for Sept. 10, including props on Addison Barger.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Astros

Best bet: Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-118)

Toronto’s offence wasn’t at its best yesterday, but it still came through in the clutch.

The Jays were no-hit through five innings and ultimately finished with seven knocks and four runs, scoring the winner in extras.

I expect that momentum to carry over into a plus matchup tonight. Check out how Toronto’s offence has ranked since the all-star break:

5.81 runs per game (first)
.288 average (first)
.354 on-base percentage (first)
.487 slugging percentage (first)
133 wrC+ (first)

Yep, that’ll play.

Obviously, there is a glaring omission in the lineup with MLB’s hit leader, Bo Bichette, sidelined. He can create a boatload of offence on his own, but I still think the Jays should chase Alexander tonight.

The Astros’ righty has a 4.68 ERA on the season and has given up six home runs in his last four games. Alexander also ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, chase rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Toronto is averaging 5.30 runs per game at home this year (third-most in MLB).

Jays prop pick

Barger over 1.5 bases (+125): Barger has been in a slump, but profiles as the type of bat who can get after Alexander.

The sophomore third baseman has great pop, crushes right-handed pitching, and rakes at home.

Barger ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and bat speed.

He is slugging .483 against RHP and .475 at home.

Barger’s biggest flaw is that he goes down on strikes and doesn’t walk often. That’s fine by me, though, as it demonstrates he’s always looking to do damage and is unlikely to take a free pass (which wouldn’t count toward this total).

Alexander has a 30th percentile K rate and is ceding a .282/.354/.542 slash line to left-hitting batters.

Blue Jays best bets made at 8:47 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.

Astros vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 10: Back Toronto’s offence, Addison Barger on Wednesday

The Toronto Blue Jays look for a series win over the Houston Astros on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto authored a two-run, ninth-inning comeback last night to extend its AL East lead to three. The Blue Jays are slight favourites with Jose Berrios pitching opposite Jason Alexander. The Astros have won Alexander’s last seven starts despite some horrific underlying numbers.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Astros for Sept. 10, including props on Addison Barger.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Astros

Best bet: Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-110)

Toronto’s offence wasn’t at its best yesterday, but it still came through in the clutch.

The Jays were no-hit through five innings and ultimately finished with seven knocks and four runs, scoring the winner in extras.

I expect that momentum to carry over into a plus matchup tonight. Check out how Toronto’s offence has ranked since the all-star break:

5.81 runs per game (first)
.288 average (first)
.354 on-base percentage (first)
.487 slugging percentage (first)
133 wrC+ (first)

Yep, that’ll play.

Obviously, there is a glaring omission in the lineup with MLB’s hit leader, Bo Bichette, sidelined. He can create a boatload of offence on his own, but I still think the Jays should chase Alexander tonight.

The Astros’ righty has a 4.68 ERA on the season and has given up six home runs in his last four games. Alexander also ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, chase rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Toronto is averaging 5.30 runs per game at home this year (third-most in MLB).

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Jays prop pick

Barger over 1.5 bases (+143): Barger has been in a slump, but profiles as the type of bat who can get after Alexander.

The sophomore third baseman has great pop, crushes right-handed pitching, and rakes at home.

Barger ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and bat speed.

He is slugging .483 against RHP and .475 at home.

Barger’s biggest flaw is that he goes down on strikes and doesn’t walk often. That’s fine by me, though, as it demonstrates he’s always looking to do damage and is unlikely to take a free pass (which wouldn’t count toward this total).

Alexander has a 30th percentile K rate and is ceding a .282/.354/.542 slash line to left-hitting batters.

Blue Jays best bets made at 8:47 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.

Astros vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 9: Back Toronto as a run line favourite in series opener

A battle between American League division leaders begins on Tuesday, as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Houston Astros.

The pregame narrative: Houston is just 3-6 in its past nine games and now faces a Toronto team that has dominated at home (45-24). Luis Garcia will make his second start of the year for the Astros, while the Blue Jays are turning to a rested Shane Bieber.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Astros for Sept. 9, including props on George Springer and Jeremy Pena.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Astros

Best bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+137)

The Astros swept the Blue Jays when they last met in April. But that might as well have been light-years ago.

Take a look at how these teams have performed since the all-star break, and you’ll see a much different story:

Team	Record	Run Differential	wRC+	ERA
Blue Jays	27-20	+48	134	4.34
Astros	22-26	-37	92	4.42

The offensive discrepancy is what really stands out. Toronto has had the strongest lineup in the second half, while Houston isn’t even swinging it at a league-average rate.

Toronto has had two off-days in the past week, which allowed the club to line up its rotation how it wanted. Bieber is expected to start Tuesday on an extra day of rest, which has been a great thing for him in his career.

Four days’ rest (69 starts): 3.39 ERA, .667 opponent OPS

Five days’ rest (48 starts): 2.64 ERA, .612 opponent OPS

Bieber had one messy inning last time out, but his first three starts with Toronto have been very strong overall. He has a 2.74 FIP and a 21:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Blue Jays are 2-1 vs. a -1.5 run line in those starts, too.

Each of the Astros’ past six losses has come by multiple runs. I like Bieber and the Blue Jays to add to that string.

Key stat: Toronto has the second-best run line record in MLB (82-61, 57.3%), per Team Rankings.

Jays prop picks

Pena over 0.5 runs (+115): Although I like Toronto’s chances to secure a win by margin, this plus-money price on Houston’s leadoff man was too good to ignore.

Pena is enjoying a breakout season, with 20 steals and an .833 OPS, which led to his first all-star appearance.

He hasn’t faced Bieber yet, but the Astros’ lineup collectively has some strong numbers against the right-hander: 14-for-46 (.304) with an .882 OPS.

Pena’s speed is an asset here, as is his relatively low strikeout rate (17.5%, 72nd percentile). I don’t expect the Astros to drum up a ton of offence, but Pena is in the best position to score.

Springer over 1.5 total bases (+105): How can you not buy in on Springer’s second-half surge?

The veteran has a .377/.472/.689 slash line in 31 games since the all-star break. He is 19-12 vs. this prop in that span.

Springer ranks in the 94th percentile or better in barrel rate, xBA and xSLG, per Baseball Savant. His 160 wRC+ this season is behind only the league’s two MVP frontrunners, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

It’s incredible work for the 35-year-old, and it means a price like this is totally playable.

Especially when you consider that Springer is 3-for-7 with two home runs and a double vs. Garcia.

Blue Jays best bets made at 2:49 p.m. ET on 09/09/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 9: Back Mookie Betts and Daulton Varsho, fade German Marquez and Spencer Strider

For the second consecutive day, Los Angeles Dodgers star Mookie Betts headlines Tuesday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Betts is hot and has a juicy matchup against Colorado Rockies righty German Marquez, who also finds himself in today’s recommendations.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 9, featuring predictions on Daulton Varsho and Spencer Strider.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Betts over 1.5 total bases (-106)

Los Angeles was quiet last night (three runs, four hits) against righty Chase Dollander and the Rockies’ bullpen, but that’s no reason to shy away from Tuesday’s matchup.

Marquez has a 6.19 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 22 starts.

He’s predictably been awful at home (6.45 ERA, .321 opponents’ batting average), but has been nearly as bad on the road (5.95, .315).

Marquez has been crushed by both lefty (.532 slugging) and righty hitters (.521).

Colorado’s bullpen has by far the worst ERA (6.02) in the majors, and it’s been even worse in the second half.

As for Betts, he’s enjoying his best stretch of the season.

The eight-time all-star is batting .328 and slugging .504 over his last 30 games.

He’s seen Marquez a good amount, batting .308 in 29 career plate appearances.

Key stat: Betts has topped this line 18 times over his 30-game heater.

Best MLB picks

Varsho 1+ RBI (+170): The Toronto Blue Jays see Houston Astros righty Luis Garcia, who threw well in his season debut and is making his second start of the year.

I’m going to keep the focus here on Varsho, who’s hitting the ball with authority and punishing right-handers.

Varsho has an incredible 18 homers in 150 at-bats vs. righties, slugging a robust .693.

Batting primarily out of the No. 5 spot for MLB’s No. 2 team in second-half wRC+, Varsho has 47 RBI in 54 games.

Varsho has started September on a tear, hitting three homers with a 1.210 OPS.

Best MLB pitching props

Marquez under 3.5 strikeouts (-120): There’s big blowup potential against the Dodgers, who returned Max Muncy last night and are supposed to have Will Smith back in the lineup today.

Add that pair to Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez, and this lineup is a nightmare for even the best of pitchers.

Marquez is averaging under five innings per start and has one of the lowest strikeout rates among starters.

Only six of 116 pitchers who have thrown 100-plus innings have a lower K% than Marquez.

The Rockies veteran has gone under this light line in 14 of 22 starts.

Strider under 17.5 outs (-125): The Atlanta Braves’ power arm hasn’t been right in his comeback season from Tommy John.

Strider has shown flashes but has been far too inconsistent, and his fastball velocity has diminished considerably. So has his K rate (24.2% compared to 36%+ in 2022/23).

His first start out of the all-star break was a gem, continuing a strong finish to the first half. But it’s been downhill since then.

Strider has a 7.75 ERA (7.09 FIP) over his last seven starts.

He has allowed 10 homers over those outings, striking out just 24 in 33.2 innings.

While the lack of Ks can theoretically allow him to work deeper by keeping his pitch count down, it simply hasn’t mattered. He’s 1-6 vs. this line since July 23.

Strider has been hit harder than ever before and is coming off a five-inning start vs. the same Chicago Cubs he’ll see tonight.

His line last time out: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 1 K.

MLB prop picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 09/09/2025.