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Blue Jays prop picks vs. Orioles Sept. 13: Fade Scherzer, bet on Lukes to score

It’s Max Scherzer day at Rogers Centre as the Toronto Blue Jays vie for a series win.

The pregame narrative: Scherzer will face the Baltimore Orioles, a team he saw all the way back in March. Toronto is favoured over a Baltimore club that went 8-1 in its final nine games before coming to town.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles for Sept. 13, featuring Scherzer and Nathan Lukes.

Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles

Best Bet: Scherzer under 6.5 Ks (-143)

The Orioles are one of the most strikeout-prone teams in MLB, but still. Scherzer is not worthy of a line this high.

I realize I’m saying that after he struck out eight in his most recent outing, but look at his full body of work in 2025:

70 Ks in 14 starts (5.0 Ks/start)
Under 6.5 Ks is 10-4 overall
Under 6.5 Ks is 6-1 since August

Scherzer has mostly been very good for the Blue Jays this season (when healthy), but he’s coming off three consecutive starts with four earned runs allowed.

Baltimore could chase him from this game early, thus reducing his chances of clearing this total.

The 41-year-old made his Toronto debut against the O’s back in March. That outing was cut short by a thumb injury, but it wasn’t off to a good start in terms of Ks (he had one strikeout through 3.0 innings).

Key stat: Scherzer has a 55th-percentile K rate, per Baseball Savant. His chase rate (16th percentile) and whiff rate (30th percentile) are both well below average.

Quick picks

Lukes over 0.5 runs (+110): I’m buying Lukes’ opportunity today in spite of some recent mediocrity from him.

Lukes is batting .288 in his past 15 games, which is solid, but he only has one walk in that span. That equates to a .296 OBP.

Still, he’s in a great spot to score on Saturday as the Jays’ No. 2 hitter. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is right behind him, and Vladdy has a 1.297 OPS in 10 games this month.

Also, Baltimore starter Tomoyuki Sugano struggles against lefty bats. LHBs have an .839 OPS against him this season.

Sugano has allowed 15 runs over his past three starts.

Blue Jays picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 09/13/2025.

Blue Jays prop picks vs. Orioles Sept. 13: Fade Scherzer, bet on Lukes to score

It’s Max Scherzer day at Rogers Centre as the Toronto Blue Jays vie for a series win.

The pregame narrative: Scherzer will face the Baltimore Orioles, a team he saw all the way back in March. Toronto is favoured over a Baltimore club that went 8-1 in its final nine games before coming to town.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles for Sept. 13, featuring Scherzer and Nathan Lukes.

Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles

Best Bet: Scherzer under 6.5 Ks (-122)

The Orioles are one of the most strikeout-prone teams in MLB, but still. Scherzer is not worthy of a line this high.

I realize I’m saying that after he struck out eight in his most recent outing, but look at his full body of work in 2025:

70 Ks in 14 starts (5.0 Ks/start)
Under 6.5 Ks is 10-4 overall
Under 6.5 Ks is 6-1 since August

Scherzer has mostly been very good for the Blue Jays this season (when healthy), but he’s coming off three consecutive starts with four earned runs allowed.

Baltimore could chase him from this game early, thus reducing his chances of clearing this total.

The 41-year-old made his Toronto debut against the O’s back in March. That outing was cut short by a thumb injury, but it wasn’t off to a good start in terms of Ks (he had one strikeout through 3.0 innings).

Key stat: Scherzer has a 55th-percentile K rate, per Baseball Savant. His chase rate (16th percentile) and whiff rate (30th percentile) are both well below average.

Embed: #117899

Quick picks

Lukes over 0.5 runs (-106): I’m buying Lukes’ opportunity today in spite of some recent mediocrity from him.

Lukes is batting .288 in his past 15 games, which is solid, but he only has one walk in that span. That equates to a .296 OBP.

Still, he’s in a great spot to score on Saturday as the Jays’ No. 2 hitter. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is right behind him, and Vladdy has a 1.297 OPS in 10 games this month.

Also, Baltimore starter Tomoyuki Sugano struggles against lefty bats. LHBs have an .839 OPS against him this season.

Sugano has allowed 15 runs over his past three starts.

Blue Jays picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 09/13/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 13: Fade Dylan Cease at plus money, look for Jake Cronenworth to step up

For Saturday’s MLB prop bets, I’m particularly keyed on the evening matchup between the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Dylan Cease isn’t known to work deep into games, which can make a high strikeout total difficult to reach. I’m fading Cease on Saturday and backing infielder Jake Cronenworth to make his mark at the plate.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 13, featuring a prediction on Pete Alonso.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+105)

The New York Mets are in a tailspin, but facing Patrick Corbin today should help.

Corbin took a sub-4.00 ERA into August, which is notable for him, but things have taken a turn for the worse. Since then, Corbin has allowed 23 runs over seven starts (6.34 ERA).

Corbin ranks in the 18th percentile in xERA (4.75) and in the 14th percentile in xBA (.276), per Baseball Savant.

Getting Alonso at plus-money odds to collect multiple bases sounds great to me. He’s an elite slugger with a great (and extensive) track record against Corbin.

In previous meetings, Alonso is 17-for-49 (.347) with five home runs and three doubles vs. Corbin.

Alonso ranks in the 96th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xSLG, barrel rate and average exit velocity.

New York is absolutely down bad right now, losing seven straight games and watching its lead in the wild-card race dwindle to almost nothing. Alonso needs to be one of the guys stepping up, and I say he gets it going on Saturday.

Key stat: Alonso is averaging 2.3 total bases per game since Aug. 1 and is slugging .549 in that span.

Best MLB picks

Cronenworth over 0.5 RBI (+180): When Bradley Blalock last pitched against San Diego, he allowed 12 earned runs over 3.2 innings. Cronenworth got in on the fun, connecting for a solo homer in the third.

With Blalock back on the mound against the Padres tonight, I like this market as a way of targeting San Diego’s shortstop.

Cronenworth has an .887 OPS in his past 18 games. He usually bats in the bottom-third of the order, which explains why this RBI prop is priced where it is. But if the Padres are humming, everyone should have RBI opportunities.

Blalock ranks in the first percentile (i.e., worst) in xBA, chase rate and strikeout rate. He also has a third-percentile xERA (5.96).

Left-handed batters, like Cronenworth, have a 1.010 OPS off Blalock in 11 games this year.

Cease under 7.5 Ks (+115): Cease is effectively wild on the mound, racking up walks and strikeouts along the way. That drives up his pitch count, though, and usually prevents him from clearing a number like this.

Despite having the second-best K/9 in the majors (11.62), Cease has gone under this strikeout total in 19 of 29 starts.

He’s averaging 6.7 Ks per start.

Cease’s 3.87 BB/9 is the third-highest in the majors among 53 qualified pitchers.

The Rockies strike out a lot, but I love this plus-money fade at a pretty high number. Cease has only completed 6.0 IP once in his past 10 outings, so he’d have to be really efficient to clear a 7.5-strikeout total.

Last weekend, Cease struck out five Rockies hitters over 5.0 IP. He threw 102 pitches in that start.

MLB prop picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET on 09/13/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 13: Fade Dylan Cease at plus money, look for Jake Cronenworth to step up

For Saturday’s MLB prop bets, I’m particularly keyed on the evening matchup between the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Dylan Cease isn’t known to work deep into games, which can make a high strikeout total difficult to reach. I’m fading Cease on Saturday and backing infielder Jake Cronenworth to make his mark at the plate.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 13, featuring a prediction on Pete Alonso.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+110)

The New York Mets are in a tailspin, but facing Patrick Corbin today should help.

Corbin took a sub-4.00 ERA into August, which is notable for him, but things have taken a turn for the worse. Since then, Corbin has allowed 23 runs over seven starts (6.34 ERA).

Corbin ranks in the 18th percentile in xERA (4.75) and in the 14th percentile in xBA (.276), per Baseball Savant.

Getting Alonso at plus-money odds to collect multiple bases sounds great to me. He’s an elite slugger with a great (and extensive) track record against Corbin.

In previous meetings, Alonso is 17-for-49 (.347) with five home runs and three doubles vs. Corbin.

Alonso ranks in the 96th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xSLG, barrel rate and average exit velocity.

New York is absolutely down bad right now, losing seven straight games and watching its lead in the wild-card race dwindle to almost nothing. Alonso needs to be one of the guys stepping up, and I say he gets it going on Saturday.

Key stat: Alonso is averaging 2.3 total bases per game since Aug. 1 and is slugging .549 in that span.

Bet on Alonso

Best MLB picks

Cronenworth over 0.5 RBI (+180): When Bradley Blalock last pitched against San Diego, he allowed 12 earned runs over 3.2 innings. Cronenworth got in on the fun, connecting for a solo homer in the third.

With Blalock back on the mound against the Padres tonight, I like this market as a way of targeting San Diego’s shortstop.

Cronenworth has an .887 OPS in his past 18 games. He usually bats in the bottom-third of the order, which explains why this RBI prop is priced where it is. But if the Padres are humming, everyone should have RBI opportunities.

Blalock ranks in the first percentile (i.e., worst) in xBA, chase rate and strikeout rate. He also has a third-percentile xERA (5.96).

Left-handed batters, like Cronenworth, have a 1.010 OPS off Blalock in 11 games this year.

Bet on Rockies vs. Padres prop markets

Cease under 7.5 Ks (+108): Cease is effectively wild on the mound, racking up walks and strikeouts along the way. That drives up his pitch count, though, and usually prevents him from clearing a number like this.

Despite having the second-best K/9 in the majors (11.62), Cease has gone under this strikeout total in 19 of 29 starts.

He’s averaging 6.7 Ks per start.

Cease’s 3.87 BB/9 is the third-highest in the majors among 53 qualified pitchers.

The Rockies strike out a lot, but I love this plus-money fade at a pretty high number. Cease has only completed 6.0 IP once in his past 10 outings, so he’d have to be really efficient to clear a 7.5-strikeout total.

Last weekend, Cease struck out five Rockies hitters over 5.0 IP. He threw 102 pitches in that start.

MLB prop picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 09/13/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 12: Back Pasquantino, Betts and Holliday on Friday night

Vinnie Pasquantino headlines Friday night’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I love tonight’s matchup for Pasquantino against Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Walker Buehler. Pasquantino is swinging a hot stick, leading to a pair of plus-money plays on him.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 12, featuring predictions on Jackson Holliday and Mookie Betts.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Pasquantino over 1.5 bases (+110) & 1+ RBI (+125)

Pasquantino will have the platoon advantage at a good hitter’s park against a pitcher who has struggled tremendously and was recently designated for assignment. There’s a lot to like here.

As the No. 3 hitter, Pasquantino will, in all likelihood, hit behind Mike Yastrzemski and Bobby Witt Jr.

Yastrzemski thrives with a platoon advantage (.363 on-base percentage vs. LHP), and Witt is a hitting machine who has gotten on base at least once in 84% of his games in the second half.

I like Pasquantino to have a shot at driving them in against Buehler, who put up a 5.45 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 23 games before getting cut by the Boston Red Sox.

The Kansas City Royals first baseman has pop, too, easily setting a career-high with 30 homers and counting, and he’s one of nine players with 100-plus RBI this season.

Pasquantino is batting .306/.350/.528 in September. He slugged .550+ in both July and August.

His OPS is more than 200 points greater vs. right-handers, and he’s blasted 25 of his bombs against RHPs.

Left-handed batters are hitting .317 with an .877 OPS vs. Buehler, and they torched him last year, too.

I see potential for a monster game at Citizens Bank Park.

Key stat: Pasquantino ranks 11th in second-half ISO.

Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 bases (+105): I’m riding the Mookie train. I’ve played this all week, and this is the best price yet.

There’s reason for that: Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers run into a hot San Francisco Giants team at their pitcher-friendly venue, facing Justin Verlander, who has been throwing great.

On top of that, the Giants’ bullpen has been strong, and Verlander has owned Betts.

Betts has three hits in 32 career plate appearances vs. Verlander (.100/.156.133). But he has only struck out three times and is hitting the ball better than at any point this season.

The Dodgers star is batting .337/.394/.582 over the last 30 days. He has a 1.221 OPS in September.

Betts has been crushing it against this line, topping it in seven of nine games this month and 18 of his last 30 contests.

Holliday to score (+115): This is a great price for a leadoff hitter who’s ending the season strong.

Holliday is batting .355/.444/.581 in September, and he’s gotten on base in 12 consecutive games.

He’s scored eight runs over that stretch, including five of his last six contests.

Holliday and the Baltimore Orioles see Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt, who has been great at home but has been hit much harder by lefty bats.

The Orioles’ second baseman has contributed most of his production against righties.

Vs. RHPs: .267/.340/.422, 13 HR
Vs. LHPs: .213/.272/.327, 4 HR

Behind Bassitt is a Blue Jays bullpen that’s 26th in ERA (5.17) since the all-star break.

MLB prop picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 09/12/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 12: Back Pasquantino, Betts and Holliday on Friday night

Vinnie Pasquantino headlines Friday night’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I love tonight’s matchup for Pasquantino against Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Walker Buehler. Pasquantino is swinging a hot stick, leading to a pair of plus-money plays on him.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 12, featuring predictions on Jackson Holliday and Mookie Betts.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Pasquantino over 1.5 bases (+112) & 1+ RBI (+140)

Pasquantino will have the platoon advantage at a good hitter’s park against a pitcher who has struggled tremendously and was recently designated for assignment. There’s a lot to like here.

As the No. 3 hitter, Pasquantino will, in all likelihood, hit behind Mike Yastrzemski and Bobby Witt Jr.

Yastrzemski thrives with a platoon advantage (.363 on-base percentage vs. LHP), and Witt is a hitting machine who has gotten on base at least once in 84% of his games in the second half.

I like Pasquantino to have a shot at driving them in against Buehler, who put up a 5.45 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 23 games before getting cut by the Boston Red Sox.

The Kansas City Royals first baseman has pop, too, easily setting a career-high with 30 homers and counting, and he’s one of nine players with 100-plus RBI this season.

Pasquantino is batting .306/.350/.528 in September. He slugged .550+ in both July and August.

His OPS is more than 200 points greater vs. right-handers, and he’s blasted 25 of his bombs against RHPs.

Left-handed batters are hitting .317 with an .877 OPS vs. Buehler, and they torched him last year, too.

I see potential for a monster game at Citizens Bank Park.

Key stat: Pasquantino ranks 11th in second-half ISO.

Embed: #117881

Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 bases (+128): I’m riding the Mookie train. I’ve played this all week, and this is the best price yet.

There’s reason for that: Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers run into a hot San Francisco Giants team at their pitcher-friendly venue, facing Justin Verlander, who has been throwing great.

On top of that, the Giants’ bullpen has been strong, and Verlander has owned Betts.

Betts has three hits in 32 career plate appearances vs. Verlander (.100/.156.133). But he has only struck out three times and is hitting the ball better than at any point this season.

The Dodgers star is batting .337/.394/.582 over the last 30 days. He has a 1.221 OPS in September.

Betts has been crushing it against this line, topping it in seven of nine games this month and 18 of his last 30 contests.

Holliday to score (+120): This is a great price for a leadoff hitter who’s ending the season strong.

Holliday is batting .355/.444/.581 in September, and he’s gotten on base in 12 consecutive games.

He’s scored eight runs over that stretch, including five of his last six contests.

Holliday and the Baltimore Orioles see Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt, who has been great at home but has been hit much harder by lefty bats.

The Orioles’ second baseman has contributed most of his production against righties.

Vs. RHPs: .267/.340/.422, 13 HR
Vs. LHPs: .213/.272/.327, 4 HR

Behind Bassitt is a Blue Jays bullpen that’s 26th in ERA (5.17) since the all-star break.

MLB prop picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 09/12/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 12: Eugenio Suarez, Vinnie Pasquantino both have promising matchups

Eugenio Suarez is flirting with a 50-homer season, and I expect him to get closer on Friday night in Seattle.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Suarez’s Mariners host Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels, and this has been an effective matchup for the all-star infielder before. Earlier on, look for Vinnie Pasquantino to stay hot in a park built for lefty power bats.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 12.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+320)

Suarez has been my most common HR pick this season, I think. He just seems to always have a better price than the other sluggers in his orbit.

The third baseman is one of just five players this year with 45-plus homers. And though he’s been pretty cold at the plate lately, the power is still there.

Over his past 20 games, Suarez is just 14-for-73 (.192) … but half of those 14 hits were home runs.

On the season, Suarez has a sixth-percentile xBA (.218), according to Baseball Savant. But he also has an 89th-percentile barrel rate (14.0%).

Suarez has an all-or-nothing offensive profile, which is fine for a bet like this. I’m just looking for him to connect once.

Tonight’s matchup against Kikuchi is a good one for Suarez, given the pitch mix Kikuchi tends to deploy against right-handed batters.

RHBs are slugging .459 vs. Kikuchi this year, coming to a .336 SLG for LHBs. Kikuchi also has a much higher opponent OPS on the road (.849) than at home (.704).

Kikuchi throws four-seam fastballs and sliders roughly 70% of the time to RHBs. Those happen to be Suarez’s favourite pitches to mash.

Suarez is slugging .594 vs. four-seamers and sliders this year, and 27 of his 45 homers have come off those pitches.

Key stat: Suarez is 5-for-12 with three HRs in his career vs. Kikuchi.

Best HR predictions

Pasquantino to hit a home run (+333): According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, Citizen Bank Park in Philadelphia has been the most homer-friendly venue for LHBs over the past three seasons (29% more HRs than average).

Enter, Pasquantino.

The 245-pound first baseman has been a slugging machine lately, teeing off for eight homers and a .616 SLG over his past 23 games.

Pasquantino has the platoon advantage tonight against Phillies right-hander Walker Buehler, who’s allowing an .877 OPS vs. LHBs this season.

For his part, Pasquantino has a .506 SLG vs. righties.

Buehler ranks in the bottom-10th percentile in xERA, xBA and whiff rate. Pasquantino should have a chance to run into one.

MLB home run picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 09/12/2025.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 12: Bet on Clement with a platoon advantage, fade offence overall

The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles close the book on their season series with a three-game set that starts Friday at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: It’s been a lost season for Baltimore, but the O’s are playing well right now (8-1 in their past nine) and have played the Jays tough this season (6-4 vs. Toronto). Trevor Rogers, who’s easily been the best individual story of Baltimore’s season, will start against Chris Bassitt.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Orioles for Sept. 12, including a prop bet on Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles

Best bet: Under 4.5 runs – first five innings (-150)

Bassitt has been lights out at home this year, and Rogers has been lights out everywhere.

Put ’em together, and we’re looking at a pitching matchup that should be able to suppress offence.

Bassitt is 8-0 with a 2.76 ERA and a .688 opponent OPS at home this season. On the road, he’s 3-8 with a 5.42 ERA and an .802 opponent OPS.

In Baltimore on July 28, Bassitt coughed up six earned runs over just 2.1 innings. But earlier in the year, he held the Orioles to one run over 6.0 IP at Rogers Centre.

You wouldn’t know how abysmal the Orioles’ season has been by looking at Rogers’ numbers. He’s been an exceptional surprise — it just hasn’t been enough for the team as a whole.

Rogers’ 5.2 bWAR more than eclipses his five-year career total entering ’25 (4.1 bWAR). He has a 1.51 ERA in 15 starts.

The 6-foot-5 southpaw should be able to hold up his end of the bargain in keeping scoring to a minimum. In 13 consecutive starts, he has allowed two or fewer runs while working into the sixth or later.

Rogers has very minimal experience vs. the Blue Jays, but the small sample is an encouraging one.

Toronto’s active lineup is just 6-for-26 (.231) with zero extra-base hits against him.

Key stat: This F5 under is 10-6 in Bassitt’s home starts this season.

Jays prop pick

Clement over 1.5 bases (+140): It’s mid-September, and Clement is still worth a look when a price like this pops up against a left-handed pitcher.

I know I was just highlighting how great Rogers is doing, but Clement is having a surprisingly strong season of his own — at least when facing a lefty.

Clement has a .331/.360/.558 slash line vs. LHPs this season.

His 150 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 15th in MLB among 151 qualified hitters.

Clement is 1-for-3 against Rogers, so at least he’s seen the guy before. And in his past 13 games overall, Clement is 7-6 vs. this prop with an .834 OPS.

Blue Jays best bets made at 12:07 p.m. ET on 09/12/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 12: Eugenio Suarez, Vinnie Pasquantino both have promising matchups

Eugenio Suarez is flirting with a 50-homer season, and I expect him to get closer on Friday night in Seattle.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Suarez’s Mariners host Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels, and this has been an effective matchup for the all-star infielder before. Earlier on, look for Vinnie Pasquantino to stay hot in a park built for lefty power bats.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 12.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+360)

Suarez has been my most common HR pick this season, I think. He just seems to always have a better price than the other sluggers in his orbit.

The third baseman is one of just five players this year with 45-plus homers. And though he’s been pretty cold at the plate lately, the power is still there.

Over his past 20 games, Suarez is just 14-for-73 (.192) … but half of those 14 hits were home runs.

On the season, Suarez has a sixth-percentile xBA (.218), according to Baseball Savant. But he also has an 89th-percentile barrel rate (14.0%).

Suarez has an all-or-nothing offensive profile, which is fine for a bet like this. I’m just looking for him to connect once.

Tonight’s matchup against Kikuchi is a good one for Suarez, given the pitch mix Kikuchi tends to deploy against right-handed batters.

RHBs are slugging .459 vs. Kikuchi this year, coming to a .336 SLG for LHBs. Kikuchi also has a much higher opponent OPS on the road (.849) than at home (.704).

Kikuchi throws four-seam fastballs and sliders roughly 70% of the time to RHBs. Those happen to be Suarez’s favourite pitches to mash.

Suarez is slugging .594 vs. four-seamers and sliders this year, and 27 of his 45 homers have come off those pitches.

Key stat: Suarez is 5-for-12 with three HRs in his career vs. Kikuchi.

Embed: #117866

Best HR predictions

Pasquantino to hit a home run (+380): According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, Citizen Bank Park in Philadelphia has been the most homer-friendly venue for LHBs over the past three seasons (29% more HRs than average).

Enter, Pasquantino.

The 245-pound first baseman has been a slugging machine lately, teeing off for eight homers and a .616 SLG over his past 23 games.

Pasquantino has the platoon advantage tonight against Phillies right-hander Walker Buehler, who’s allowing an .877 OPS vs. LHBs this season.

For his part, Pasquantino has a .506 SLG vs. righties.

Buehler ranks in the bottom-10th percentile in xERA, xBA and whiff rate. Pasquantino should have a chance to run into one.

MLB home run picks made at 10:57 a.m. ET on 09/12/2025.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 12: Bet on Clement with a platoon advantage, fade offence overall

The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles close the book on their season series with a three-game set that starts Friday at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: It’s been a lost season for Baltimore, but the O’s are playing well right now (8-1 in their past nine) and have played the Jays tough this season (6-4 vs. Toronto). Trevor Rogers, who’s easily been the best individual story of Baltimore’s season, will start against Chris Bassitt.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Orioles for Sept. 12, including a prop bet on Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles

Best bet: Under 4.5 runs – first five innings (-143)

Bassitt has been lights out at home this year, and Rogers has been lights out everywhere.

Put ’em together, and we’re looking at a pitching matchup that should be able to suppress offence.

Bassitt is 8-0 with a 2.76 ERA and a .688 opponent OPS at home this season. On the road, he’s 3-8 with a 5.42 ERA and an .802 opponent OPS.

In Baltimore on July 28, Bassitt coughed up six earned runs over just 2.1 innings. But earlier in the year, he held the Orioles to one run over 6.0 IP at Rogers Centre.

You wouldn’t know how abysmal the Orioles’ season has been by looking at Rogers’ numbers. He’s been an exceptional surprise — it just hasn’t been enough for the team as a whole.

Rogers’ 5.2 bWAR more than eclipses his five-year career total entering ’25 (4.1 bWAR). He has a 1.51 ERA in 15 starts.

The 6-foot-5 southpaw should be able to hold up his end of the bargain in keeping scoring to a minimum. In 13 consecutive starts, he has allowed two or fewer runs while working into the sixth or later.

Rogers has very minimal experience vs. the Blue Jays, but the small sample is an encouraging one.

Toronto’s active lineup is just 6-for-26 (.231) with zero extra-base hits against him.

Key stat: This F5 under is 10-6 in Bassitt’s home starts this season.

Embed: #117863

Jays prop pick

Clement over 1.5 bases (+138): It’s mid-September, and Clement is still worth a look when a price like this pops up against a left-handed pitcher.

I know I was just highlighting how great Rogers is doing, but Clement is having a surprisingly strong season of his own — at least when facing a lefty.

Clement has a .331/.360/.558 slash line vs. LHPs this season.

His 150 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 15th in MLB among 151 qualified hitters.

Clement is 1-for-3 against Rogers, so at least he’s seen the guy before. And in his past 13 games overall, Clement is 7-6 vs. this prop with an .834 OPS.

Blue Jays best bets made at 8:47 a.m. ET on 09/12/2025.