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Best MLB prop bets Sept. 17: Back Betts and Gausman, fade deGrom on Wednesday night

Two big-name starting pitchers highlight my top MLB prop picks for Wednesday’s baseball slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I have plays on American League starters Kevin Gausman and Jacob deGrom. Gausman has been dynamite and I expect him to continue his second-half surge, while I’m fading deGrom against a division rival.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 17, featuring a prediction on Mookie Betts.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-130)

The Toronto Blue Jays right-hander is coming off his best start of the season — a two-hit shutout against the Houston Astros.

It marked the ninth time in 10 second-half starts that Gausman has logged at least six innings.

He’s made good on this bet in six of those outings, and upped his K rate by more than 3% post-all-star-break.

Gausman has a sparkling 2.25 ERA over that stretch, holding opponents to a .161 batting average.

Toronto’s bullpen has been worked hard and is shaky, so I’m optimistic Gausman will continue to give the Blue Jays length tonight.

Read why Jordan Horrobin likes Gausman over 18.5 outs

Going deep would obviously help his chances of clearing this line, but the matchup is strong regardless.

The Tampa Bay Rays have struck out more often than all but two teams in the second half. And they have the 10th-highest K rate vs. right-handers.

Key stat: Gausman fanned six Rays when he faced them earlier this season and has cleared this line in each of his last six non-injury-impacted starts vs. Tampa.

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Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 total bases (+125): Betts’ teammate Shohei Ohtani is having a monster end to the season. Don’t let that take away from what Betts is doing.

Betts is batting .373/.400/.729 in September.

Ohtani is one of only six players with a higher OPS than Betts this month. But Betts is topping him in slugging and total bases, and has as many homers (five).

The Los Angeles Dodgers have another tough matchup against Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo, but he’s been especially difficult on left-handed batters.

Betts is averaging 3.1 total bases per game this month, topping this number in 10 of 14 games. Over his last 30, he’s recorded two-plus bases 18 times.

deGrom under 17.5 outs (-125): The Texas Rangers righty has failed to clear 17.5 outs in five of his last seven starts. One of those games came against the same Astros he’ll see tonight.

He’s 50/50 against this line on the season and is coming off his longest start of the season.

Texas is still in the wild-card hunt, and I don’t see the club running the oft-injured starter into the ground down the stretch.

The Rangers have gotten good production from their bullpen all year (fifth in ERA this season, third in September), and the club is off tomorrow.

Even if heavier usage is required out of the group today, it will have a day to rest on Thursday before closing out the season with a favourable nine-game stretch.

MLB prop picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET on 09/17/2025.

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Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays Sept. 17: Bet on Kevin Gausman, Ernie Clement in plus-money props

Sporting a five-game division lead and a six-game win streak, the Toronto Blue Jays face the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Rays rocked Kevin Gausman back in May (5.2 innings, 10 hits, six runs), but he’s on fire for Toronto right now. Gausman and the Jays are favoured as they look to grab a series win in South Florida.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rays for Sept. 17, including prop picks on Gausman and Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays

Best bet: Gausman over 18.5 outs (+145)

Gausman is in the zone right now, coming off three deep and effective starts for the Blue Jays.

In his past three outings, the veteran right-hander has allowed just 10 hits and two runs over 24.0 innings. That includes a two-hit shutout against a talented Astros team last time out.

Coming off back-to-back starts of 100+ pitches, I might typically be wary of backing Gausman at this outs total.

But he had an extra day of rest thanks to Trey Yesavage’s spot start, so that shouldn’t be a concern.

Also, Toronto’s bullpen could use a bit of a breather, with four of its eight arms likely unavailable tonight.

Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez and Brendon Little all pitched in Games 1 and 2 of this series.

Converted starter Eric Lauer threw 22 pitches over 1.1 innings last night. He has never pitched on back-to-back days in his MLB career.

Neither Braydon Fisher nor Louis Varland pitched yesterday, but they’ve worked three of the previous five days.

Gausman is averaging 18.4 outs per start this season, and he’s cashing this bet more often than not right now. He has pitched into the seventh inning or later in eight of his past 10 starts.

I’m riding with the right-hander to keep shoving.

Key stat: Gausman is averaging 20.4 outs over his past 10 starts, posting a 2.25 ERA in that span.

Jays prop picks

Clement over 1.5 total bases (+130): Clement is still one of MLB’s best hitters against left-handed pitching in 2025, and I’m still a fan of getting him at a price like this.

Check out his MLB ranks vs. LHPs this season:

9th in SLG (.557)
11th in BA (.329)
14th in wRC+ (149)

Over his past 11 games, Clement is 7-4 vs. this prop while posting a .325/.372/.475 slash line.

Like the rest of Toronto’s lineup, Clement will face Tampa Bay southpaw Ian Seymour for the first time. Seymour’s three-pitch mix consists of four-seamers, cutters and changeups.

Clement is slugging .557 vs. that pitch mix when facing LHPs this season, per Baseball Savant.

Blue Jays best bets made at 11:37 a.m. ET on 09/17/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 17: Back Jakob Marsee, George Springer on Wednesday

Toronto Blue Jays slugger George Springer headlines Wednesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Springer has been one of the best players in baseball since the all-star break and has solid value to go deep against Tampa Bay Rays reliever-turned-starter Ian Seymour.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 17, featuring a pick on Jakob Marsee.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Springer to hit a home run (+360)

Springer is having his best season as a Blue Jay, and arguably the best season of the second half of his career.

Just look at what the veteran outfielder has done since the all-star break (MLB ranks in parentheses):

.372 BA (1st)
.667 SLG (2nd)
210 wRC+ (1st)
.295 ISO (12th)

Springer has 13 home runs in that 39-game stretch, and three of those came against southpaws in 35 plate appearances.

Tampa Bay’s Seymour is making his fourth MLB start and his first at home.

Things haven’t gone so well for the lefty at George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Rays’ temporary home venue, in his outings as a reliever.

In 12.2 IP, Seymour has allowed a .296 opponent batting average and three home runs.

That shouldn’t be too surprising though, because George M. Steinbrenner Field ranks as the second-most HR-friendly venue for righty bats (33% more than league average).

Key stat: Springer is slashing .345/.457/.690 against LHPs in the second half.

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Best HR predictions

Marsee to hit a home run (+510): Speaking of offence-friendly venues, Colorado’s Coors Field is the cream of the crop.

The mile-high ballpark has been the best offensive environment in baseball over the last three seasons.

Marsee, who has been crushing it as a rookie for the Miami Marlins, got his first taste of Coors last night, and he delivered.

He went 1-for-5 with a double and cashed two RBIs in a 6-5 win.

The lefty bat goes up against fellow rookie, right-hander McCade Brown, tonight, and he’s gotten lit up at home (14.29 ERA).

Brown just allowed five hits and six earned runs (one HR) in 1.2 IP at Coors Field on Sept. 6.

Marsee is slashing .311 with a .509 slugging percentage against righties this year.

MLB home run picks made at 11:55 a.m. ET on 09/17/2025.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays Sept. 17: Bet on Kevin Gausman, Ernie Clement in plus-money props

Sporting a five-game division lead and a six-game win streak, the Toronto Blue Jays face the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Rays rocked Kevin Gausman back in May (5.2 innings, 10 hits, six runs), but he’s on fire for Toronto right now. Gausman and the Jays are favoured as they look to grab a series win in South Florida.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rays for Sept. 17, including prop picks on Gausman and Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays

Best bet: Gausman over 18.5 outs (+125)

Gausman is in the zone right now, coming off three deep and effective starts for the Blue Jays.

In his past three outings, the veteran right-hander has allowed just 10 hits and two runs over 24.0 innings. That includes a two-hit shutout against a talented Astros team last time out.

Coming off back-to-back starts of 100+ pitches, I might typically be wary of backing Gausman at this outs total.

But he had an extra day of rest thanks to Trey Yesavage’s spot start, so that shouldn’t be a concern.

Also, Toronto’s bullpen could use a bit of a breather, with four of its eight arms likely unavailable tonight.

Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez and Brendon Little all pitched in Games 1 and 2 of this series.

Converted starter Eric Lauer threw 22 pitches over 1.1 innings last night. He has never pitched on back-to-back days in his MLB career.

Neither Braydon Fisher nor Louis Varland pitched yesterday, but they’ve worked three of the previous five days.

Gausman is averaging 18.4 outs per start this season, and he’s cashing this bet more often than not right now. He has pitched into the seventh inning or later in eight of his past 10 starts.

I’m riding with the right-hander to keep shoving.

Key stat: Gausman is averaging 20.4 outs over his past 10 starts, posting a 2.25 ERA in that span.

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Jays prop picks

Clement over 1.5 total bases (+138): Clement is still one of MLB’s best hitters against left-handed pitching in 2025, and I’m still a fan of getting him at a price like this.

Check out his MLB ranks vs. LHPs this season:

9th in SLG (.557)
11th in BA (.329)
14th in wRC+ (149)

Over his past 11 games, Clement is 7-4 vs. this prop while posting a .325/.372/.475 slash line.

Like the rest of Toronto’s lineup, Clement will face Tampa Bay southpaw Ian Seymour for the first time. Seymour’s three-pitch mix consists of four-seamers, cutters and changeups.

Clement is slugging .557 vs. that pitch mix when facing LHPs this season, per Baseball Savant.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:37 a.m. ET on 09/17/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 16: Back Mariners ace Logan Gilbert and Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez

Seattle Mariners ace Logan Gilbert is featured as the top MLB prop pick for Tuesday’s baseball slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Gilbert has been piling up strikeouts and I expect that to continue tonight despite a challenging matchup against the Kansas City Royals.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 16, featuring predictions on Eduardo Rodriguez and Mickey Moniak.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)

Gilbert has the No. 1 strikeout rate in MLB among pitchers who have thrown 100-plus innings. He routinely blows past this line and is shattering his career-best K rate.

Getting him on a 5.5 line is almost unheard of, but his opponent is the reason for that.

The Royals have the lowest K rate in MLB in the second half and are one of only three teams to strike out in fewer than 20% of their plate appearances vs. righties this season.

Still, it’s not like Gilbert is getting cakewalks every start. Kansas City is a difficult team to retire on strikes, but I expect one of MLB’s premier arms to once again reach this number.

Here’s why:

Gilbert has topped this line in 19 of 22 starts, good for a dynamite 86% success rate.

He provides length, throwing six-plus innings in four of his last six outings, going 5-1 vs. this number over that stretch.

Gilbert gets the Royals at Kauffman Stadium, a home run-suppressing park. The righty has struggled a bit with homers, so this is a plus that will ideally limit a big inning.

The Royals aren’t a great offensive team, ranking 25th in on-base percentage and 26th in wRC+.

This feels like another six-inning start for Gilbert. With that workload, I’ll play him at this number against any team.

Key stat: Gilbert struck out seven Royals over 4.2 innings in July.

Best MLB picks

Rodriguez over 15.5 outs (-120): Rodriguez isn’t the most trustworthy arm going, but I like him at this line.

He has seven-inning upside and gets the San Francisco Giants, whom he silenced in his last outing.

The Giants have been swinging good sticks in the second half but hit right-handers significantly better. Against southpaws, they’re last in MLB in batting average and OBP, and rank 27th in wRC+.

Rodriguez fired 6.1 scoreless innings against them last week, allowing two hits and striking out six.

It marked the third straight start Rodriguez has topped 15.5 outs, and the sixth time in seven outings.

While Rodriguez has struggled at home this season (5.28 ERA), he has cleared this number in four consecutive starts at Arizona’s Chase Field.

Moniak over 0.5 runs (+105): Miami Marlins righty Eury Perez has had some nice moments in his sophomore season but is struggling to close out the year.

Perez has been terrible on the road (6.44 ERA) and faces the most daunting venue in the game tonight: Coors Field.

I like Moniak to take advantage of the platoon advantage and his home park, both of which he’s done this season.

The left-handed hitting Moniak is slugging more than 200 points greater vs. righties, and he’s slashing .303/.349/.583 at home.

He’s batting .317 this month, getting on base at a .364 clip.

Moniak, who has generally been in the No. 2 spot of the lineup, has pop, too. He’s slugging .509 with a career-best 46 extra-base hits.

Following Perez, Colorado will see Miami’s 26th-ranked bullpen in terms of second-half ERA.

MLB prop picks made at 11:55 a.m. ET on 09/16/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 16: Back Mariners ace Logan Gilbert and Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez

Seattle Mariners ace Logan Gilbert is featured as the top MLB prop pick for Tuesday’s baseball slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Gilbert has been piling up strikeouts and I expect that to continue tonight despite a challenging matchup against the Kansas City Royals.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 16, featuring predictions on Eduardo Rodriguez and Mickey Moniak.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts (-121)

Gilbert has the No. 1 strikeout rate in MLB among pitchers who have thrown 100-plus innings. He routinely blows past this line and is shattering his career-best K rate.

Getting him on a 5.5 line is almost unheard of, but his opponent is the reason for that.

The Royals have the lowest K rate in MLB in the second half and are one of only three teams to strike out in fewer than 20% of their plate appearances vs. righties this season.

Still, it’s not like Gilbert is getting cakewalks every start. Kansas City is a difficult team to retire on strikes, but I expect one of MLB’s premier arms to once again reach this number.

Here’s why:

Gilbert has topped this line in 19 of 22 starts, good for a dynamite 86% success rate.

He provides length, throwing six-plus innings in four of his last six outings, going 5-1 vs. this number over that stretch.

Gilbert gets the Royals at Kauffman Stadium, a home run-suppressing park. The righty has struggled a bit with homers, so this is a plus that will ideally limit a big inning.

The Royals aren’t a great offensive team, ranking 25th in on-base percentage and 26th in wRC+.

This feels like another six-inning start for Gilbert. With that workload, I’ll play him at this number against any team.

Key stat: Gilbert struck out seven Royals over 4.2 innings in July.

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Best MLB picks

Rodriguez over 15.5 outs (-121): Rodriguez isn’t the most trustworthy arm going, but I like him at this line.

He has seven-inning upside and gets the San Francisco Giants, whom he silenced in his last outing.

The Giants have been swinging good sticks in the second half but hit right-handers significantly better. Against southpaws, they’re last in MLB in batting average and OBP, and rank 27th in wRC+.

Rodriguez fired 6.1 scoreless innings against them last week, allowing two hits and striking out six.

It marked the third straight start Rodriguez has topped 15.5 outs, and the sixth time in seven outings.

While Rodriguez has struggled at home this season (5.28 ERA), he has cleared this number in four consecutive starts at Arizona’s Chase Field.

Moniak over 0.5 runs (-105): Miami Marlins righty Eury Perez has had some nice moments in his sophomore season but is struggling to close out the year.

Perez has been terrible on the road (6.44 ERA) and faces the most daunting venue in the game tonight: Coors Field.

I like Moniak to take advantage of the platoon advantage and his home park, both of which he’s done this season.

The left-handed hitting Moniak is slugging more than 200 points greater vs. righties, and he’s slashing .303/.349/.583 at home.

He’s batting .317 this month, getting on base at a .364 clip.

Moniak, who has generally been in the No. 2 spot of the lineup, has pop, too. He’s slugging .509 with a career-best 46 extra-base hits.

Following Perez, Colorado will see Miami’s 26th-ranked bullpen in terms of second-half ERA.

MLB prop picks made at 11:55 a.m. ET on 09/16/2025.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays Sept. 16: Fade Varsho, take Tampa Bay on F5 moneyline

The Toronto Blue Jays carry a five-game win streak into Tuesday night’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The pregame narrative: Toronto outlasted Tampa, 2-1, for an 11-inning win last night. Tonight’s game is a pick’em, with Jose Berrios getting the ball for the Jays amid some extended struggles.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rays for Sept. 16, including prop picks on Yandy Diaz and Daulton Varsho.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays

Best bet: Rays tie no bet — first five innings (-112)

The landscape of the Blue Jays’ pitching staff has shifted in the past month, with Shane Bieber stepping up and now Trey Yesavage dazzling in his MLB debut (Sept. 15).

Where does that leave Berrios regarding the impending playoff rotation? Likely on the outside looking in.

It’s not like Berrios has earned a more favourable fate. His past 10 starts have been far from desirable:

5.10 ERA
5.45 FIP
.294 opponent BA
46% hard-hit rate

The reason for caution with this pick is that Toronto is 6-4 on the F5 moneyline during Berrios’ rough stretch. So it’s quite possible his offence bails him out … again.

But Ryan Pepiot can prevent that from happening. He’s on a tear right now, tossing 5.0 shutout innings in three consecutive starts — with just two hits allowed in that span.

Last time out against Toronto, Pepiot threw 7.0 IP of three-hit, shutout ball.

In limited action against the Jays’ active lineup, Pepiot has held the club to a .279 SLG. And his Rays are 2-0-0 on the F5 moneyline vs. Toronto in his outings this year.

Key stat: Berrios has allowed eight earned runs over 11.1 IP vs. Tampa this season. The Blue Jays are 0-2-0 on the F5 moneyline in those games.

Jays prop picks

Diaz over 0.5 runs (+100): Diaz is on a killer run over his past 20 games that makes this prop well worth a buy.

Since Aug. 21, Diaz has a .395/.459/.623 slash line for the Rays, with 14 runs, 10 extra-base hits and an equal total of walks and strikeouts (nine apiece).

He is 11-9 vs. his run prop in that span.

Given that I’m low on Berrios, it makes sense to target someone in Tampa’s lineup. And Diaz, from the No. 2 spot in the order, should have a great chance to score.

Diaz is 6-for-20 (.300) with a home run, two doubles and a walk against Berrios.

Varsho under 0.5 hits (+105): Varsho has a .912 OPS since the start of August. But he’s also hitless in 16 of 31 starts in that span.

It may be difficult to believe that both of those numbers are accurate, but that’s the all-or-nothing nature of Varsho’s offensive profile.

When he connects, the ball goes a mile; it’s just that he often doesn’t connect.

So, which side of the coin will we see from Varsho tonight? I prefer to fade him against Pepiot, who — as a reminder — has only allowed two hits in his past 15.0 innings.

Also, left-handed batters have a .188 BA in their career vs. Pepiot.

Blue Jays best bets made at 11:37 a.m. ET on 09/16/2025.

Phillies vs. Dodgers SGP predictions Sept. 16: Sanchez, Ohtani duel in clash of National League titans

The NL MVP frontrunner and an NL Cy Young short-lister square off tonight when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies.

The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani and Cristopher Sanchez will take the mound tonight in a potential playoff preview. The Phillies have already clinched the NL East, while the Dodgers are 2.0 games ahead in their division.

Check out my Phillies vs. Dodgers SGP predictions for Sept. 16, with prop bets on Ohtani, Sanchez and Harrison Bader.

Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions

Parlay: Phillies +1.5 | Sanchez over 4.5 Ks | Ohtani under 1.5 bases | Bader over 0.5 hits (+375)

Phillies +1.5 (-190): The Dodgers are the World Series favourites, but I don’t care. When Sanchez is on the mound, this amount of cushion tends to be an excellent play.

Philadelphia is 24-5 vs. a +1.5 run line with Sanchez this season. The Phillies are 21-8 SU in his outings.

Sanchez is third in the majors in FIP (2.56) and fourth in ERA (2.57).

Philly is five games ahead of L.A. in the standings, and the Phillies are 3-1 vs. the Dodgers this season. Their four matchups were decided by a total of five runs, and yesterday’s game required extras.

This season series has been exceptionally even, which makes this cushion feel comfortable on the Phillies’ side.

As does the fact that Philadelphia has an MLB-best 140 wRC+ over the past 30 days (Los Angeles has a 112 wRC+ in the same span).

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Fade Ohtani at the plate

Ohtani under 1.5 bases (-155): Ohtani is on his way to a fourth MVP trophy in five seasons, and it’s largely thanks to his hitting abilities.

He’s also on his way to leading the majors in total bases for a second consecutive year. Right now, he’s averaging 2.34 bases per game.

Still, I feel comfortable fading him for a few reasons.

Recent form: Ohtani has gone under 1.5 bases in 15 of his past 22 games.

Sanchez’s home run suppression: Sanchez has the lowest HR/9 in the majors (0.49).

Ohtani’s two-way duties: In Ohtani’s past 10 starts as a pitcher, the under on his bases prop is 6-4.

Ohtani is 3-for-14 (.231) vs. Sanchez with zero extra-base hits and four strikeouts.

More SGP picks

Sanchez over 4.5 strikeouts (-210): Sanchez started against the Dodgers back in early April, and he tallied nine Ks over 5.2 innings.

His 9.5 K/9 this year is a solid rate — and a career high — and it means he’s well positioned to clear this modest total each time out.

Sanchez is averaging 6.6 Ks per start.

He has 5+ Ks in 24 of 29 games.

He’s 13-1 vs. this prop since June 26, averaging 7.1 Ks per game in that span.

Sanchez ranks in the 75th percentile or better in strikeout rate, chase rate and whiff rate.

It’s been 20 starts since he last failed to pitch into the sixth inning, so expect him to have ample opportunities to get to this number.

Bader over 0.5 hits (-162): Bader, a trade deadline acquisition by the Phillies, has really proven his worth for his new club. Especially this month.

In September, the speedy outfielder is 23-for-58 (.397) with only three walks. He strikes out a fair amount, but the free-swinging tendencies are better than if he were drawing a bunch of free passes.

Ohtani won’t be a fun guy for Bader to face, but at least the platoon advantage is on his side.

Right-handed batters, like Bader, have a .306 BA vs. Ohtani this year. Lefties, meanwhile, are batting just .167.

Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions made at 11:19 a.m. ET on 09/16/2025.

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Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays Sept. 16: Fade Varsho, take Tampa Bay on F5 moneyline

The Toronto Blue Jays carry a five-game win streak into Tuesday night’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The pregame narrative: Toronto outlasted Tampa, 2-1, for an 11-inning win last night. Tonight’s game is a pick’em, with Jose Berrios getting the ball for the Jays amid some extended struggles.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rays for Sept. 16, including prop picks on Yandy Diaz and Daulton Varsho.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays

Best bet: Rays tie no bet — first five innings (-113)

The landscape of the Blue Jays’ pitching staff has shifted in the past month, with Shane Bieber stepping up and now Trey Yesavage dazzling in his MLB debut (Sept. 15).

Where does that leave Berrios regarding the impending playoff rotation? Likely on the outside looking in.

It’s not like Berrios has earned a more favourable fate. His past 10 starts have been far from desirable:

5.10 ERA
5.45 FIP
.294 opponent BA
46% hard-hit rate

The reason for caution with this pick is that Toronto is 6-4 on the F5 moneyline during Berrios’ rough stretch. So it’s quite possible his offence bails him out … again.

But Ryan Pepiot can prevent that from happening. He’s on a tear right now, tossing 5.0 shutout innings in three consecutive starts — with just two hits allowed in that span.

Last time out against Toronto, Pepiot threw 7.0 IP of three-hit, shutout ball.

In limited action against the Jays’ active lineup, Pepiot has held the club to a .279 SLG. And his Rays are 2-0-0 on the F5 moneyline vs. Toronto in his outings this year.

Key stat: Berrios has allowed eight earned runs over 11.1 IP vs. Tampa this season. The Blue Jays are 0-2-0 on the F5 moneyline in those games.

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Jays prop picks

Diaz over 0.5 runs (+110): Diaz is on a killer run over his past 20 games that makes this prop well worth a buy.

Since Aug. 21, Diaz has a .395/.459/.623 slash line for the Rays, with 14 runs, 10 extra-base hits and an equal total of walks and strikeouts (nine apiece).

He is 11-9 vs. his run prop in that span.

Given that I’m low on Berrios, it makes sense to target someone in Tampa’s lineup. And Diaz, from the No. 2 spot in the order, should have a great chance to score.

Diaz is 6-for-20 (.300) with a home run, two doubles and a walk against Berrios.

Varsho under 0.5 hits (-103): Varsho has a .912 OPS since the start of August. But he’s also hitless in 16 of 31 starts in that span.

It may be difficult to believe that both of those numbers are accurate, but that’s the all-or-nothing nature of Varsho’s offensive profile.

When he connects, the ball goes a mile; it’s just that he often doesn’t connect.

So, which side of the coin will we see from Varsho tonight? I prefer to fade him against Pepiot, who — as a reminder — has only allowed two hits in his past 15.0 innings.

Also, left-handed batters have a .188 BA in their career vs. Pepiot.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:17 a.m. ET on 09/16/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 15: Back pitchers Carlos Rodon, Ranger Suarez and Kyle Bradish

I’m targeting three starting pitchers for Monday’s MLB player prop recommendations.

Today’s MLB props narrative: My best bet is on Carlos Rodon, who has been dealing and giving the New York Yankees innings. I expect him to do it again on the road against the Minnesota Twins.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 15, featuring predictions on Kyle Bradish and Ranger Suarez.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Rodon over 17.5 outs (-143)

Rodon doesn’t have his elite strikeout numbers from years past, but he’s doing a lot of things well and has stayed on the mound.

The lefty is two innings shy of setting a career-high mark for innings pitched, something he should easily clear tonight.

Rodon enters Monday’s start with strong numbers across the board. And make no mistake, he still misses plenty of bats.

He has his highest ground-ball rate since 2017 and a .187 opponents’ batting average. The only year he was better was 2021 (.186).

Rodon has had multiple seasons with a 30% K rate, but he’s still well above average at 26%.

He’s top 15 among qualified starters in ERA and ranks eighth in xERA (3.29).

Rodon has allowed two runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts, putting up a 2.38 ERA over that stretch.

The 32-year-old has topped this line in five of his last six outings, logging 5.2 innings the one time he fell short.

Key stat: Rodon has thrown six-plus innings in 18 of his 30 starts.

Best MLB picks

Suarez over 4.5 Ks (-134): Suarez’s strikeout upside is impossible to ignore.

Make no mistake, he has one of his most challenging assignments of the season on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

But there are harder teams to retire on strikes, and Suarez eats innings, too.

The Philadelphia Phillies southpaw has his best K rate since becoming a full-time starter in 2022 and has been lethal of late.

Suarez has produced double-digit strikeout totals in three of his last five starts.

He’s 11th in ERA and top 10 in FIP among starters who have thrown 140-plus innings. His consistency has allowed him to work into the sixth inning in 19 of his 23 starts.

The longer he’s out there, the more chances he has to pile up Ks.

Suarez has recorded five-plus Ks in 17 starts and notched at least six in 13.

Bradish over 5.5 Ks (-106): The Orioles right-hander is showing that he’ll be a huge piece in Baltimore’s rotation next year, assuming he’s healthy.

Bradish has been limited to three starts this season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. The results have been super encouraging.

Vs. PIT: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K
@ SD: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K
Vs. BOS: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 10 K

That works out to an elite 32.3% K rate.

Before Bradish went down last year, he had a mark of 32.5% over eight starts. That came a year after posting a well-above-average 25.0 K% in the first 30-start year of his career.

Bradish can miss bats and should continue to tonight against the Chicago White Sox.

The White Sox have the eighth-highest K rate this month and have struck out at a top-10 clip vs. right-handers this season.

MLB prop picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 09/15/2025.