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Best MLB prop bets Sept. 20: Back Bryce Harper, Framber Valdez, Taylor Ward

Two sluggers and one starting pitcher contribute to Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Bryce Harper is my main target at plus-money because of his matchup. Elsewhere, Taylor Ward has a good shot at mashing for the Los Angeles Angels at Coors Field.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 20, featuring predictions on Harper, Ward and Framber Valdez.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Harper over 1.5 total bases (+112)

Harper may not be playing at an MVP level this season, but his stats are still top-tier.

He has an 85th-percentile xBA (.282) and 91st-percentile xSLG (.522), per Baseball Savant.

Plus, he’s raking over his last 10 games with a .324 batting average and 1.136 OPS.

That all goes before mentioning his stats against Arizona Diamondbacks’ starter Zac Gallen.

Harper is 10-for-20 off Gallen with two home runs in his career.

The righty is having a down year with a 4.73 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, and I expect the all-star slugger to do damage.

Key stat: Harper is 7-3 against this line in his past 10 games.

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Best MLB picks

Valdez over 17.5 outs (-118): In terms of stats, Valdez has been struggling over recent starts.

His last 10 games have not been pretty, but it hasn’t hindered his ability to work deep into ball games.

Valdez is 2-8 over those starts with a 5.31 ERA.

Despite that, he’s 6-4 against this line.

The bright side is that his FIP of 3.79 during that time is much lower than his actual ERA. That stat measures a pitcher’s effectiveness at limiting base runners and getting Ks, independent of field conditions.

Valdez has thrown 85 or more pitches in 27 of his 29 starts this season.

Ward over 1.5 total bases (-113): Ward is an all-or-nothing hitter, but that’s something to take advantage of at Coors Field.

He pairs his high strikeout rate with an 84th-percentile barrel rate.

His .462 SLG is well above the MLB average. He also leads the Angels with 261 total bases this year.

Ward certainly has pop, and he can take advantage of the Rockies’ starting German Marquez.

Marquez has the third-worst ERA in the majors among pitchers with over 100 innings pitched (6.73).

He gives up 1.49 HR/9 and continuously gets rocked when playing on the road or in Colorado.

But his .937 OPS allowed at Coors Field is definitely something I want to take advantage of.

MLB prop picks made at 11:17 a.m. ET on 09/20/2025.

Giants vs. Dodgers SGP predictions Sept. 20: Bet on Schmitt, San Francisco in +280 ticket

The San Francisco Giants look to get off the mat against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles has won the first two games of this series, and today’s pitching duel feels like a mismatch. So why am I backing San Francisco behind Kai-Wei Teng over L.A. and Tyler Glasnow?

Check out my Giants vs. Dodgers SGP predictions for Sept. 20, featuring a prop bet for Casey Schmitt.

Giants vs. Dodgers predictions

Parlay: Giants +2.5 | Under 10.5 runs | Schmitt to record 1+ hits (+280)

Giants +2.5 (-177): San Francisco can keep it close against Los Angeles today.

Teng gets the ball for the Giants, and on the surface, he’s been brutal this season. He enters this contest with a 6.41 ERA, and his team has lost five of his seven outings.

The advanced numbers, however, paint a much more appealing picture.

3.30 FIP
3.49 xERA
.217 aBA

Teng has been much better than his ERA suggests.

Glasnow has been excellent for L.A., combining a 3.06 ERA with a 3.89 FIP. Despite his success this season, this still isn’t a number he’s covering regularly.

The Dodgers have won by three-plus runs in just three of Glasnow’s 11 starts since returning in July from a shoulder injury.

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More SGP picks

Under 10.5 runs (-225): I’m expecting both pitchers to deal on Saturday.

Teng has been much better than advertised, and he’s been especially strong away from Oracle Park. Opponents are only hitting .263 against Teng on the road, compared to .292 at home.

Additionally, the Dodgers have never faced Teng before. The unfamiliarity should work in the pitcher’s favour.

Glasnow just squared off against the Giants on September 14 and completely stifled their bats. The righty ceded just three hits and one run across 6.2 innings of work in the contest.

The under on this total has cashed in 10 of Glasnow’s last 11 starts.

Schmitt to record 1+ hits (-129): Lastly, I’m betting on a knock from Schmitt.

The Giants’ infielder isn’t doing anything impactful ahead of this contest (.220 AVG in September) and is actually hitless in his last six games.

But there is one big reason why I’m banking on him delivering today.

Schmitt is much better against right-handed pitchers than he is against lefties.

He’s batting a respectable .258 against righties compared to an abysmal .194 against southpaws.

The league average batting average this season is .246. I’ll take somebody at these odds who’s hitting slightly above that versus righties.

Giants vs. Dodgers predictions made at 11:19 a.m. ET on 09/20/2025.

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Blue Jays vs. Royals picks and predictions Sept. 20: Look for Toronto to bounce back behind Shane Bieber

The Toronto Blue Jays look to avoid another series loss against the Kansas City Royals.

The pregame narrative: After last night’s 20-1 blowout loss, Shane Bieber is tasked with leading a bounce-back effort for Toronto. The Royals counter with rookie left-handed pitcher Noah Cameron.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Royals for the Sept. 20 game at Kauffman Stadium, featuring prop predictions on Bieber and George Springer.

Blue Jays picks vs. Royals

Best bet: Blue Jays F5 +0.5 (-143)

Things have been rocky for the Jays, but there’s a nice opportunity to rebound with Bieber on the mound.

He shoved in his last start, giving up four hits and one run while striking out five over six innings.

The Jays provide good run support for Bieber. This wager is 4-1 in his five starts with Toronto.

Cameron starts for the Royals, and his base ERA (2.98) is very good, but his advanced stats show some good ball luck.

58th-percentile xERA (3.98)
52nd-percentile xBA (.247)

Plus, his 4.71 ERA over his last five starts indicates some regression down the stretch.

Toronto is in a tiny slump right now offensively, but the AL East leaders are very capable of a bounce-back performance.

Key stat: Since the all-star break, the Blue Jays have the second-best batting average (.280), slugging (.465) and WRC+ (125) in MLB.

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Jays prop predictions

Springer over 1.5 total bases (-110): To start Friday’s chaotic game, Springer hit a leadoff homerun.

And despite the recent lack of offence, Springer’s been consistently one of the best hitters in baseball.

In the second half, the slugger leads MLB with a whopping 204 WRC+.

During that time, he’s cleared this line 23 times.

In those 41 games, Springer has only gone hitless nine times. He has a sky-high floor on offence right now, and I want to back a prop completely in his control.

Bieber over 17.5 outs (-148): If you can stomach the price, I think there’s strong value on this prop.

Bieber’s pitched into the sixth inning in all five starts this season and is 3-2 against this line.

This line indicates an average performance, but I think he can shine against the Royals.

They did score 20 runs yesterday, but seven were attributed to a poor start from Max Scherzer and Tyler Heineman, a catcher, allowed 10 runs in relief.

I want to focus on the matchup, and Bieber has dominated the Royals in his career. Their offence is a combined 17-for-76 (.223) against the righty.

The Blue Jays have needed a lot from their bullpen in recent weeks, so John Schneider should give Bieber a long leash for tonight’s contest.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 09/20/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 19: Back Garrett Crochet, Geraldo Perdomo and Willy Adames

Boston Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet headlines Friday night’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Crochet has been one of the best starters in baseball and I expect him to deliver in a crucial matchup against the rival Tampa Bay Rays.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 19, featuring predictions on Geraldo Perdomo and Willy Adames.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Crochet over 18.5 outs (+112)

The Red Sox ran through their bullpen this week during a three-game set vs. the Athletics.

On top of that, they’re fighting for a wild-card spot now that the Cleveland Guardians are surging behind them.

If Crochet is dealing — which is, of course, no guarantee — I have to imagine they’re going to ride him out. And Crochet deals more often than not. Even better, he consistently eats innings.

Crochet’s first season in Boston has been dynamite.

First in MLB in Ks (240)
Fifth in ERA (2.63)
10th in WHIP (1.05)

Crochet has thrown a career-high 191.1 innings, which leads the American League.

The hard-throwing southpaw has tossed six-plus innings in 23 of 30 starts.

Six innings won’t cash this — and coming back out for the seventh after sitting shouldn’t be taken lightly — but Crochet is consistently hovering around this number.

Crochet faced the Rays once this year and was spectacular, pitching a three-hit shutout with nine strikeouts.

Key stat: Crochet has cashed this bet 14 times.

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Best MLB picks

Perdomo over 1.5 total bases (+125): The Arizona Diamondbacks should get to Philadelphia Phillies righty Taijuan Walker.

Perdomo, the club’s leadoff hitter, is as good a bet as any player to do damage. At -120 to score, I’m electing to play him on this prop instead.

Perdomo is averaging 2.3 total bases over 15 games in September. During the month, he’s hitting a robust .327/.441/.618 with four homers.

He’s batting .330 in the second half and ranks sixth in MLB in wRC+ over that stretch.

Walker has very little swing and miss ability and has been tattooed in four straight outings.

The veteran has surrendered four-plus runs each time out (7.65 ERA), allowing 32 hits and five homers over those 20 innings.

Adames 1+ RBI (+200): Adames has been a disappointment, but you can find things to like about his season. How about this:

Since July 1, he’s fourth in the National League in RBI.

He’s fourth in ISO over that same period and has a 140 wRC+.

Adames has pop and has been showing it following a miserable start to his San Francisco Giants tenure.

Locked in as the No. 3 hitter, Adames will hit behind two good bats when he sees Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.

Kershaw has been a mixed bag this season and got drilled by the Giants at their pitcher-friendly park his last time out.

Tonight’s game is at hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium.

MLB prop picks made at 3:15 p.m. ET on 09/19/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Royals picks and predictions Sept. 19: Bet on Toronto to win behind Scherzer and Varsho

The Toronto Blue Jays open up a three-game set on the road against the Kansas City Royals on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto can clinch a playoff spot with a win and some help tonight, and I like the club to at least do its part to help make the postseason a reality.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Royals for the Sept. 19 game at Kauffman Stadium, featuring prop predictions on Daulton Varsho and starting pitcher Max Scherzer.

Blue Jays picks vs. Royals

Best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-138)

Scherzer’s last few turns through the rotation have been bumpy but there’s still been some good takeaways.

In his last outing (two runs over five frames vs. the Baltimore Orioles), he broke a string of three straight starts allowing four-plus runs.

Scherzer ran into early issues against the New York Yankees in his start before that, but managed eight Ks in 4.1 innings.

He gives Toronto a starting pitching edge over Michael Lorenzen, who pitched in relief in his last outing and has made seven appearances since coming off the injured list in August.

Lorenzen has a 5.97 ERA since then, allowing four-plus runs in four of his six starts.

He’s a below-average strikeout arm facing a team that rarely strikes out. Toronto should put plenty of balls in play, which leads to good things.

The Blue Jays’ offence, even absent Bo Bichette, is a cut above Kansas City’s.

Toronto is No. 1 in wRC+ in the second half. Even in a down September, the club’s offence has still been 24% better than the Royals.

The bullpen has been shaky and remains a question mark moving forward, but the group has settled this month, posting a 2.91 ERA (sixth in MLB) and top-10 K rate.

Key stat: The Royals are 6-10 this month and are scoring the fewest runs per game in the AL.

Jays prop predictions

Scherzer over 16.5 outs (-125): Scherzer hasn’t gotten to this number since Aug. 25, when he reeled off his sixth straight start of six-plus innings.

But Kansas City provides a good opportunity for any pitcher and Scherzer has already handled the club once this season.

The veteran spun six innings of one-run ball with five Ks vs. K.C. in August.

Scherzer has struggled keeping the ball in the yard, but Kauffman Stadium is a home run-suppressing park and no team in the AL has hit fewer bombs at home than the Royals.

Some key bullpen arms are possibly down based on recent workloads (Seranthony Dominguez, Braydon Fisher among them) and Toronto is deploying six starters at the moment (rookie Trey Yesavage is getting another start Sunday).

I think those factors should open up the door for Scherzer to work a little deeper.

And with their final off day of the season on Monday, Scherzer will have plenty of time to recover before making one final start before the postseason.

Varsho 1+ RBI (+135): The slugging outfielder should find himself in a run-producing spot, as he’s been slotted No. 4-6 in the lineup in every game he’s started this month.

Varsho has responded with a .280 average while slugging .560 in September.

He’s been a monster with a platoon advantage, slugging .653 with all 18 of his homers, and has 30 RBI in 38 games since coming off the IL in August.

The left-handed hitting Varsho’s .320 ISO over that stretch is the sixth-best mark in MLB.

Blue Jays picks made at 2:03 p.m. ET on 09/19/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Royals picks and predictions Sept. 19: Bet on Toronto to win behind Scherzer and Varsho

The Toronto Blue Jays open up a three-game set on the road against the Kansas City Royals on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto can clinch a playoff spot with a win and some help tonight, and I like the club to at least do its part to help make the postseason a reality.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Royals for the Sept. 19 game at Kauffman Stadium, featuring prop predictions on Daulton Varsho and starting pitcher Max Scherzer.

Blue Jays picks vs. Royals

Best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-130)

Scherzer’s last few turns through the rotation have been bumpy but there’s still been some good takeaways.

In his last outing (two runs over five frames vs. the Baltimore Orioles), he broke a string of three straight starts allowing four-plus runs.

Scherzer ran into early issues against the New York Yankees in his start before that, but managed eight Ks in 4.1 innings.

He gives Toronto a starting pitching edge over Michael Lorenzen, who pitched in relief in his last outing and has made seven appearances since coming off the injured list in August.

Lorenzen has a 5.97 ERA since then, allowing four-plus runs in four of his six starts.

He’s a below-average strikeout arm facing a team that rarely strikes out. Toronto should put plenty of balls in play, which leads to good things.

The Blue Jays’ offence, even absent Bo Bichette, is a cut above Kansas City’s.

Toronto is No. 1 in wRC+ in the second half. Even in a down September, the club’s offence has still been 24% better than the Royals.

The bullpen has been shaky and remains a question mark moving forward, but the group has settled this month, posting a 2.91 ERA (sixth in MLB) and top-10 K rate.

Key stat: The Royals are 6-10 this month and are scoring the fewest runs per game in the AL.

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Jays prop predictions

Scherzer over 16.5 outs (-120): Scherzer hasn’t gotten to this number since Aug. 25, when he reeled off his sixth straight start of six-plus innings.

But Kansas City provides a good opportunity for any pitcher and Scherzer has already handled the club once this season.

The veteran spun six innings of one-run ball with five Ks vs. K.C. in August.

Scherzer has struggled keeping the ball in the yard, but Kauffman Stadium is a home run-suppressing park and no team in the AL has hit fewer bombs at home than the Royals.

Some key bullpen arms are possibly down based on recent workloads (Seranthony Dominguez, Braydon Fisher among them) and Toronto is deploying six starters at the moment (rookie Trey Yesavage is getting another start Sunday).

I think those factors should open up the door for Scherzer to work a little deeper.

And with their final off day of the season on Monday, Scherzer will have plenty of time to recover before making one final start before the postseason.

Varsho 1+ RBI (+155): The slugging outfielder should find himself in a run-producing spot, as he’s been slotted No. 4-6 in the lineup in every game he’s started this month.

Varsho has responded with a .280 average while slugging .560 in September.

He’s been a monster with a platoon advantage, slugging .653 with all 18 of his homers, and has 30 RBI in 38 games since coming off the IL in August.

The left-handed hitting Varsho’s .320 ISO over that stretch is the sixth-best mark in MLB.

Blue Jays picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 09/19/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 18: Back Ohtani and Betts, fade Reds’ Greene

Two of my three MLB prop picks for Thursday come from the last game of the night between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The rivals collide in L.A. and I like two of the game’s biggest stars to do damage. Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani are sizzling ahead of tonight’s fourth meeting this season vs. Giants ace Logan Webb.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 18, featuring a prediction on Cincinnati Reds starter Hunter Greene.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Greene under 6.5 Ks (+100)

The flamethrowing righty could very well come out and punch out double-digit batters, something he’s done twice in six starts since coming off the injured list in mid-August.

But Greene’s upside is severely limited tonight against the Chicago Cubs, a difficult team to retire on strikes.

Chicago sports the fifth-lowest K rate vs. righties and seventh-lowest in MLB in the second half.

Greene faced the Cubs way back in May, striking out a season-low two batters over four innings of work.

The 26-year-old has thrown the ball well at home but facing a good lineup at Great American Ball Park is always a concern. It’s been the third-most hitter-friendly spot in MLB over the last three years, per Baseball Savant, and No. 2 in home runs.

Greene has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, too, allowing homers at an above-average rate.

Key stat: Greene started the year 6-1 vs. this number. Since then, he’s gone 4-6.

Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 total bases (+110): I keep playing Betts on this market and have no intentions of slowing down, not when it’s plus money.

Betts is hitting .349/.377/.683 with five homers and 19 RBI in 15 games this month.

He has a 1.007 OPS over his last 25 contests, averaging 2.4 total bases per game. Betts has topped this line in 15 of those games.

Webb’s a great pitcher but he’s been rocked twice by the Dodgers this season — including his last start — and Betts has had a lot of success vs. him in a fairly large sample.

Betts is slashing .381/.435/.571 with only four strikeouts in 46 career plate appearances against Webb.

Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (-120): Ohtani hasn’t seen Webb as much as Betts but the numbers are still fantastic:

.368/.478/.790 with a pair of bombs in 24 PAs.

That’s simply the icing on the cake. Ohtani especially demolishes righties, is having an even better September than Betts and is very rarely available at this price.

The reigning MVP blasted home run No. 51 last night, No. 50 the night before, and is hitting .333/.465/.737 this month.

Ohtani ranks No. 1 in MLB vs. RHPs in homers (38) and ISO (.376).

MLB prop picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET on 09/18/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 18: Back Ohtani and Betts, fade Reds’ Greene

Two of my three MLB prop picks for Thursday come from the last game of the night between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The rivals collide in L.A. and I like two of the game’s biggest stars to do damage. Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani are sizzling ahead of tonight’s fourth meeting this season vs. Giants ace Logan Webb.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 18, featuring a prediction on Cincinnati Reds starter Hunter Greene.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Greene under 6.5 Ks (+115)

The flamethrowing righty could very well come out and punch out double-digit batters, something he’s done twice in six starts since coming off the injured list in mid-August.

But Greene’s upside is severely limited tonight against the Chicago Cubs, a difficult team to retire on strikes.

Chicago sports the fifth-lowest K rate vs. righties and seventh-lowest in MLB in the second half.

Greene faced the Cubs way back in May, striking out a season-low two batters over four innings of work.

The 26-year-old has thrown the ball well at home but facing a good lineup at Great American Ball Park is always a concern. It’s been the third-most hitter-friendly spot in MLB over the last three years, per Baseball Savant, and No. 2 in home runs.

Greene has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, too, allowing homers at an above-average rate.

Key stat: Greene started the year 6-1 vs. this number. Since then, he’s gone 4-6.

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Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 total bases (+104): I keep playing Betts on this market and have no intentions of slowing down, not when it’s plus money.

Betts is hitting .349/.377/.683 with five homers and 19 RBI in 15 games this month.

He has a 1.007 OPS over his last 25 contests, averaging 2.4 total bases per game. Betts has topped this line in 15 of those games.

Webb’s a great pitcher but he’s been rocked twice by the Dodgers this season — including his last start — and Betts has had a lot of success vs. him in a fairly large sample.

Betts is slashing .381/.435/.571 with only four strikeouts in 46 career plate appearances against Webb.

Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (-112): Ohtani hasn’t seen Webb as much as Betts but the numbers are still fantastic:

.368/.478/.790 with a pair of bombs in 24 PAs.

That’s simply the icing on the cake. Ohtani especially demolishes righties, is having an even better September than Betts and is very rarely available at this price.

The reigning MVP blasted home run No. 51 last night, No. 50 the night before, and is hitting .333/.465/.737 this month.

Ohtani ranks No. 1 in MLB vs. RHPs in homers (38) and ISO (.376).

MLB prop picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET on 09/18/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Rays SGP predictions Sep. 18: Back Brandon Lowe and Addison Barger at +400

The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays close out their series with a matinee on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto had its six-game winning streak snapped yesterday, but can still pick up a series win this afternoon in Florida. Chris Bassitt is pitching for the visitors opposite Shane Baz, and that matchup should lead to fireworks.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions for Sept. 18, featuring prop bets on Addison Barger and Brandon Lowe.

Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions

Parlay: Over 7.5 runs | Barger over 0.5 RBI | Lowe 1+ hit (+400)

Over 7.5 runs (-127): Why do I like the over? At the risk of sounding reductive, Bassitt has struggled on the road while Baz has gotten lit up at home.

Bassitt on the road: 5.42 ERA, .281 ERA, 1.47 HR/9
Baz at home: 6.28 ERA, .278 OBA, 2.10 HR/9

George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Rays’ temporary home venue, has been the 10th-best offensive environment in MLB this year, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.

It’s also been the fifth-most HR-friendly venue, which explains Baz’s horrific 2.10 HR/9 rate. That would by far be the worst of any qualified pitcher over a whole season.

Bassitt has struggled with the long ball away from Rogers Centre and got rocked for five earned runs over 4.0 IP when he pitched here earlier this season.

This feels like a game where both offences can do some serious damage.

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MLB SGP legs

Barger 1+ RBI (+160): According to Rotowire, Barger is slated to hit cleanup for the Jays today. That’s a prime spot for run production.

George Springer (.454 OBP) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.407 OBP) both rank top 10 in MLB in on-base percentage since the all-star break.

And Nathan Lukes, who is slated to hit second, has a respectable .320 OBP against RHP.

Barger is hitless in six plate appearances agianst Baz, but that doesn’t worry me.

The sophomore bat has seven RBI in his last six games, and Baz is coming off a disasterous start against the Chicago Cubs (2.1 IP, 5 ER).

Lowe 1+ hit (-195): Lowe is a Blue Jay killer and has done a ton of damage against Bassitt.

He’s 10-for-17 with two doubles and four home runs. That nets out to an absurd .588 batting average and 1.412 slugging percentage.

Lowe has only walked once in those at-bats, which is good to see.

And his .480 xBA and 1.342 xSLG in those at-bats mean the results have been well earned.

Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions as of 8:36 a.m. on 09/18/2025.

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Best MLB prop bets Sept. 17: Back Betts and Gausman, fade deGrom on Wednesday night

Two big-name starting pitchers highlight my top MLB prop picks for Wednesday’s baseball slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I have plays on American League starters Kevin Gausman and Jacob deGrom. Gausman has been dynamite and I expect him to continue his second-half surge, while I’m fading deGrom against a division rival.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 17, featuring a prediction on Mookie Betts.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-138)

The Toronto Blue Jays right-hander is coming off his best start of the season — a two-hit shutout against the Houston Astros.

It marked the ninth time in 10 second-half starts that Gausman has logged at least six innings.

He’s made good on this bet in six of those outings, and upped his K rate by more than 3% post-all-star-break.

Gausman has a sparkling 2.25 ERA over that stretch, holding opponents to a .161 batting average.

Toronto’s bullpen has been worked hard and is shaky, so I’m optimistic Gausman will continue to give the Blue Jays length tonight.

Read why Jordan Horrobin likes Gausman over 18.5 outs

Going deep would obviously help his chances of clearing this line, but the matchup is strong regardless.

The Tampa Bay Rays have struck out more often than all but two teams in the second half. And they have the 10th-highest K rate vs. right-handers.

Key stat: Gausman fanned six Rays when he faced them earlier this season and has cleared this line in each of his last six non-injury-impacted starts vs. Tampa.

Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 total bases (+100): Betts’ teammate Shohei Ohtani is having a monster end to the season. Don’t let that take away from what Betts is doing.

Betts is batting .373/.400/.729 in September.

Ohtani is one of only six players with a higher OPS than Betts this month. But Betts is topping him in slugging and total bases, and has as many homers (five).

The Los Angeles Dodgers have another tough matchup against Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo, but he’s been especially difficult on left-handed batters.

Betts is averaging 3.1 total bases per game this month, topping this number in 10 of 14 games. Over his last 30, he’s recorded two-plus bases 18 times.

deGrom under 17.5 outs (-118): The Texas Rangers righty has failed to clear 17.5 outs in five of his last seven starts. One of those games came against the same Astros he’ll see tonight.

He’s 50/50 against this line on the season and is coming off his longest start of the season.

Texas is still in the wild-card hunt, and I don’t see the club running the oft-injured starter into the ground down the stretch.

The Rangers have gotten good production from their bullpen all year (fifth in ERA this season, third in September), and the club is off tomorrow.

Even if heavier usage is required out of the group today, it will have a day to rest on Thursday before closing out the season with a favourable nine-game stretch.

MLB prop picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET on 09/17/2025.