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MLB home run picks Sept. 24: Back Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson to go deep

Top slugger Juan Soto highlights Wednesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Soto isn’t having the season most expected, but he’s still been elite, especially recently, and can hit for power. Before that, I’m making a bold prediction on Gunnar Henderson breaking his home run drought.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 24.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Soto to hit a home run (+460)

There is a significant amount of value in backing Soto here for several reasons.

Despite batting a below-standard .267 this season, Soto still ranks seventh in MLB with 42 home runs.

Plus, he’s seen an uptick in production lately, hitting 10 home runs in his last 23 games.

That equates to an incredible 1.248 OPS during that time (.782 SLG).

All of that goes before mentioning the tough skid Chicago Cubs starter Matthew Boyd has been on.

He owns a 5.77 ERA over his past eight starts, allowing seven home runs in the process.

Soto is 1-for-7 in his career off Boyd, but the good news is that one hit left the park for a home run.

Key stat: The New York Mets slugger has a 99th-percentile xSLG (.629), per Baseball Savant.

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Best HR predictions

Henderson to hit a home run (+450): Let’s get the ugly out of the way first.

Henderson hasn’t hit a home run in 26 straight games. But there’s solid reason to believe he snaps the skid tonight.

The slugging shortstop has seen Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane Baz in a limited fashion, but he’s been successful. He has two hits in three at-bats with a home run.

Baz is prone to getting hit hard. His 1.44 HR/9 is the fourth-highest among qualified pitchers.

Henderson has a .351 average over the past 10 games. He hasn’t been hitting for power, but has a good shot to flip the script on Wednesday.

MLB home run picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 09/24/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 24: Back Francisco Lindor, Blake Snell and Carlos Correa

Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, and Blake Snell headline Wednesday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The New York Mets and Houston Astros are fighting for their postseason lives, and I expect Lindor and Correa to deliver at the plate for their respective teams. Elsewhere, Snell has solid value to mow down an Arizona Diamondbacks team one game out of a wild-card spot.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 24.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Lindor to score (+117)

New York’s precipitous fall has been shocking, but the squad is getting hot at the right time.

The Mets have won five of their last eight, after losing eight straight, and now control their destiny as the NL’s final wild-card team.

Lindor has been at the forefront of their resurgence and played hero last night, going 2-for-4 with a home run and three RBI in a 9-7 victory over the Chicago Cubs.

Lindor is slashing .341/.432/.591 during his 11-game hitting streak.

In that span, he has scored 14 runs and is 9-2 against this line.

The Mets’ offence has a good chance to stay hot tonight against Chicago’s Matthew Boyd. The southpaw has an ugly 6.54 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over his last six starts.

Lindor has dominated Boyd and will have ample chances to get aboard as the leadoff man on the road.

Key stat: Lindor is 13-for-36 against Boyd with two doubles and a home run.

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Best MLB picks

Correa over 1.5 total bases (+100): Houston has lost four straight and is in serious danger of missing the postseason altogether.

Someone will have to step up with Yordan Alvarez and Jermey Pena sidelined, and I think Correa is that man.

The Astros take on Luis Severino and the Athletics in Sacramento, which is a good matchup for several reasons.

Severino has a 6.51 ERA and a .297 opponent batting average at home this year.

Sutter Health Park has been the second-most offensively-friendly environment this year, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors.

Correa is 6-for-19 off Severino with three doubles and a home run.

The veteran shortstop is hitless in his last two outings, but was 3-1 against this line in the four games before that.

Snell over 6.5 strikeouts (+114): This seems like a generous line to back Snell on, who is on a rampage and has a propensity to work deep into ballgames.

The Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw has five quality starts (6.0+ innings pitched, three or fewer earned runs) in his last six appearances.

In that span, he owns a 2.48 ERA and is 3-3 against this line.

Snell’s last two starts were gems, though, as he fanned a combined 23 batters in 13.0 shutout innings.

Arizona is a hard team to retire on strikes, but not for Snell. He has a 28.4% K rate against its lineup in 102 combined plate appearances, and struck out eight Diamondbacks in 5.1 innings on August 29.

MLB prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 09/24/2025.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 24: Bet on a big performance from Jarren Duran

The Boston Red Sox can earn a big series win over the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is in desperate need of a victory, only sitting one game clear of the New York Yankees in the AL East. The Jays will look for a big performance behind Max Scherzer, who counters Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for the Sept. 24 game at Rogers Centre, featuring prop predictions involving Crochet and Jarren Duran.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (+100)

There’s been some serious concern lately with Scherzer on the mound.

He’s been shelled constantly, allowing 21 earned runs over his last five starts.

That was over 20.0 innings, and his last start was disastrous (seven ER, 0.2 IP).

Four of those five games went over this total with an average of 12.6 runs scored.

Even if the Jays’ offensive slump continues, I don’t trust Scherzer or the bullpen to keep this game within control.

Corchet also isn’t pitching his best right now. Over his last four starts, he holds a 4.68 ERA (4.99 FIP).

There’s potential for an unexpectedly high-scoring game here, so I’ll buy in on the low total.

Key stat: Seven of Crochet’s last nine starts have gone over 7.5 runs.

Jays prop predictions

Duran over 1.5 total bases (+105): With Scherzer on the mound, I want to take advantage of a hitter on the Red Sox side, and Duran caught my eye.

At plus-money, he provides value in this matchup.

He’s just 1-for-3 off Scherzer, but the one hit was a home run.

Duran went hitless on Tuesday but had at least a knock in eight of the nine games before.

I believe he has one of the highest offensive floors on the Red Sox on any night, thanks to his raw power and elite speed.

And this is a strong spot for production with Scherzer starting. Duran is hitting leadoff for Boston and should be in line for five or more at-bats.

Crochet under 6.5 Ks (-138): Even if Crochet has a strong outing, this is a tough number to get past against the Jays.

Toronto strikes out the second-fewest times per game (6.75).

Crochet has finished under this total in both his starts against the Blue Jays this season.

That’s in 12.2 innings pitched over two very solid performances.

This isn’t a fade on Crochet by any means and is solely to do with the matchup at hand.

Toronto has held 19 straight starting pitchers under this number.

Blue Jays picks made at 11:16 a.m. ET on 09/24/2025.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 24: Bet on a big performance from Jarren Duran

The Boston Red Sox can earn a big series win over the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is in desperate need of a victory, only sitting one game clear of the New York Yankees in the AL East. The Jays will look for a big performance behind Max Scherzer, who counters Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for the Sept. 24 game at Rogers Centre, featuring prop predictions involving Crochet and Jarren Duran.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (-104)

There’s been some serious concern lately with Scherzer on the mound.

He’s been shelled constantly, allowing 21 earned runs over his last five starts.

That was over 20.0 innings, and his last start was disastrous (seven ER, 0.2 IP).

Four of those five games went over this total with an average of 12.6 runs scored.

Even if the Jays’ offensive slump continues, I don’t trust Scherzer or the bullpen to keep this game within control.

Corchet also isn’t pitching his best right now. Over his last four starts, he holds a 4.68 ERA (4.99 FIP).

There’s potential for an unexpectedly high-scoring game here, so I’ll buy in on the low total.

Key stat: Seven of Crochet’s last nine starts have gone over 7.5 runs.

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Jays prop predictions

Duran over 1.5 total bases (+104): With Scherzer on the mound, I want to take advantage of a hitter on the Red Sox side, and Duran caught my eye.

At plus-money, he provides value in this matchup.

He’s just 1-for-3 off Scherzer, but the one hit was a home run.

Duran went hitless on Tuesday but had at least a knock in eight of the nine games before.

I believe he has one of the highest offensive floors on the Red Sox on any night, thanks to his raw power and elite speed.

And this is a strong spot for production with Scherzer starting. Duran is hitting leadoff for Boston and should be in line for five or more at-bats.

Crochet under 6.5 Ks (-137): Even if Crochet has a strong outing, this is a tough number to get past against the Jays.

Toronto strikes out the second-fewest times per game (6.75).

Crochet has finished under this total in both his starts against the Blue Jays this season.

That’s in 12.2 innings pitched over two very solid performances.

This isn’t a fade on Crochet by any means and is solely to do with the matchup at hand.

Toronto has held 19 straight starting pitchers under this number.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 09/24/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 23: Ride with Betts, fade O’Hoppe and Rooker

A trio of late-night, California-based MLB prop bets are on my ticket for Tuesday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: There are six games starting after 9 p.m. ET tonight, and I’ve got predictions for three of them. Logan O’Hoppe and Brent Rooker both look like logical fade candidates, while Mookie Betts is worth backing amid his September surge.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 23.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Rooker under 0.5 runs (-106)

I’ve found myself riding with Rooker a lot this season, especially inside the offence-friendly confines of Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park.

But his production has dipped recently, and I think he’s worth a fade on this prop at near-even money.

Rooker has failed to score a run in 14 of 19 games since Aug. 31.

In that 19-game span, he’s batting .215 with a .271 on-base percentage.

Rooker has moved between the second, third and fourth spots in the Athletics’ lineup most of the year, and he’s in the No. 2 spot right now.

That theoretically improves his chances to score, but not to an extent that I’m overly concerned.

The three A’s hitters behind Rooker — Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom and Shea Langeliers — have a collective .223/.281/.402 slash line over the past two weeks.

As a whole, the A’s have a 92 wRC+ in that span (18th in MLB).

Houston Astros starter Cristian Javier threw 6.0 innings of two-hit, shutout ball against the A’s last season. He has a .215 xBA through seven starts this year and can hopefully keep the A’s bats quiet again.

Key stat: Rooker is 0-for-6 with three Ks vs. Javier. Altogether, the A’s are 1-for-19 with seven strikeouts against the Houston righty.

Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 total bases (-108): It’s been a weird year for Betts, who entered September with a sub-.700 OPS.

For a guy who’d never had a sub-.800 OPS season before, that’s quite an anomaly.

But Betts is looking good these days, which is a huge lift for a Los Angeles Dodgers team that’s trying to lock down the NL West.

So far in September, Betts has posted a .312/.360/.636 slash line.

He’s 12-7 vs. this prop and is averaging 2.6 bases per game.

Betts is 9-for-20 with a double and two home runs vs. Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt. That includes a 2-for-3 showing on the final day of August, which kick-started this current hot streak.

Pfaadt ranks in the sixth percentile in xERA (5.55) and in the second percentile in xBA (.301), per Baseball Savant.

O’Hoppe under 0.5 hits (+125): When I first looked at tonight’s Royals vs. Angels matchup, I wanted to bet on Cole Ragans’ strikeouts prop … but a -115 price for over 6.5 Ks while he’s on a pitch count didn’t entice me.

Fading O’Hoppe is somewhat of an endorsement for Ragans, though. O’Hoppe strikes out a ton, and now he’s up against a pitcher with an 11.2 K/9 over the past three seasons.

Oh, and O’Hoppe is 0-for-5 with four Ks in his previous matchups against Ragans.

With that in mind, this is a great price to fade L.A.’s catcher. But even against a lesser pitcher, I think I could make the case.

In his past 27 games, O’Hoppe is batting .141 with a 32.3% K rate. He has gone hitless in 15 of 25 starts in that span.

MLB prop picks made at 12:08 p.m. ET on 09/23/2025.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 23: Bet on Gausman, Duran in plus-money props

It’s time for the final homestand of the Toronto Blue Jays’ regular season, and the Boston Red Sox are in town to open a three-game series on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto sits two games clear of the New York Yankees in the AL East and can wrap things up in a matter of days. Tonight, Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the home team in search of a fifth straight outing with fewer than two runs allowed.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for the Sept. 23 game at Rogers Centre, featuring prop predictions involving Jarren Duran, George Springer and Masataka Yoshida.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best bet: Duran over 1.5 total bases (+115)

Duran has bounced around Boston’s lineup a bit, but he’s back in the leadoff spot, which means he’ll get as many opportunities as possible to cash this bet.

And although Gausman is on a heater for the Blue Jays, this is a matchup that Duran can thrive in. After all, he’s done it before.

In their past matchups, Duran is 8-for-22 (.364) vs. Gausman with five doubles and a home run.

Duran went 2-0 vs. this prop last season when facing Gausman at Rogers Centre. He had an extra-base hit off the right-hander in both games.

Duran has 92nd-percentile sprint speed, according to Baseball Savant, and I like his chances of stretching for a double if he finds a gap.

Rogers Centre has allowed more doubles than average to left-handed batters in 12 of the past 14 seasons, as tracked by Baseball Savant’s park factors.

The other component I like for this play is that Duran fares well against Gausman’s two-pitch mix of four-seam fastballs and splitters.

Against those pitch types from right-handers this season, Duran has a .317/.412/.617 slash line in 180 at-bats.

Key stat: Over his past 19 games, Duran is 10-9 vs. this prop while slugging .507.

Jays prop predictions

Gausman over 6.5 Ks (+110): Despite what I think Duran could accomplish tonight, Gausman is in a good spot to mow down the Red Sox.

In his lone start vs. Boston this season, Gausman struck out 10 over 8.0 innings.

He has a 30.6% K rate against the Red Sox’ active lineup in 157 plate appearances (MLB average K rate is 22.1%).

Gausman is averaging 6.6 Ks per game over his past 11 starts.

Yoshida over 0.5 RBI (+220): Yoshida is not your typical cleanup hitter. But he’s in the No. 4 spot right now, and that makes me very interested in this RBI prop price.

Though he only has three extra-base hits this month, Yoshida has been solid at the dish with a .313 batting average. And he’s 4-1 vs. this prop since moving into the cleanup spot.

Yoshida is also 6-for-12 with two doubles and a homer off Gausman. If there’s traffic on the basepaths in front of him, this price will look like a bargain.

Blue Jays picks made at 12:03 p.m. ET on 09/23/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 23: Ride with Betts, fade O’Hoppe and Rooker

A trio of late-night, California-based MLB prop bets are on my ticket for Tuesday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: There are six games starting after 9 p.m. ET tonight, and I’ve got predictions for three of them. Logan O’Hoppe and Brent Rooker both look like logical fade candidates, while Mookie Betts is worth backing amid his September surge.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 23.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Rooker under 0.5 runs (-105)

I’ve found myself riding with Rooker a lot this season, especially inside the offence-friendly confines of Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park.

But his production has dipped recently, and I think he’s worth a fade on this prop at near-even money.

Rooker has failed to score a run in 14 of 19 games since Aug. 31.

In that 19-game span, he’s batting .215 with a .271 on-base percentage.

Rooker has moved between the second, third and fourth spots in the Athletics’ lineup most of the year, and he’s in the No. 2 spot right now.

That theoretically improves his chances to score, but not to an extent that I’m overly concerned.

The three A’s hitters behind Rooker — Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom and Shea Langeliers — have a collective .223/.281/.402 slash line over the past two weeks.

As a whole, the A’s have a 92 wRC+ in that span (18th in MLB).

Houston Astros starter Cristian Javier threw 6.0 innings of two-hit, shutout ball against the A’s last season. He has a .215 xBA through seven starts this year and can hopefully keep the A’s bats quiet again.

Key stat: Rooker is 0-for-6 with three Ks vs. Javier. Altogether, the A’s are 1-for-19 with seven strikeouts against the Houston righty.

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Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 total bases (-112): It’s been a weird year for Betts, who entered September with a sub-.700 OPS.

For a guy who’d never had a sub-.800 OPS season before, that’s quite an anomaly.

But Betts is looking good these days, which is a huge lift for a Los Angeles Dodgers team that’s trying to lock down the NL West.

So far in September, Betts has posted a .312/.360/.636 slash line.

He’s 12-7 vs. this prop and is averaging 2.6 bases per game.

Betts is 9-for-20 with a double and two home runs vs. Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt. That includes a 2-for-3 showing on the final day of August, which kick-started this current hot streak.

Pfaadt ranks in the sixth percentile in xERA (5.55) and in the second percentile in xBA (.301), per Baseball Savant.

O’Hoppe under 0.5 hits (+125): When I first looked at tonight’s Royals vs. Angels matchup, I wanted to bet on Cole Ragans’ strikeouts prop … but a -115 price for over 6.5 Ks while he’s on a pitch count didn’t entice me.

Fading O’Hoppe is somewhat of an endorsement for Ragans, though. O’Hoppe strikes out a ton, and now he’s up against a pitcher with an 11.2 K/9 over the past three seasons.

Oh, and O’Hoppe is 0-for-5 with four Ks in his previous matchups against Ragans.

With that in mind, this is a great price to fade L.A.’s catcher. But even against a lesser pitcher, I think I could make the case.

In his past 27 games, O’Hoppe is batting .141 with a 32.3% K rate. He has gone hitless in 15 of 25 starts in that span.

MLB prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 09/23/2025.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 23: Bet on Gausman, Duran in plus-money props

It’s time for the final homestand of the Toronto Blue Jays’ regular season, and the Boston Red Sox are in town to open a three-game series on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto sits two games clear of the New York Yankees in the AL East and can wrap things up in a matter of days. Tonight, Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the home team in search of a fifth straight outing with fewer than two runs allowed.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for the Sept. 23 game at Rogers Centre, featuring prop predictions involving Jarren Duran, George Springer and Masataka Yoshida.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best bet: Duran over 1.5 total bases (+128)

Duran has bounced around Boston’s lineup a bit, but he’s back in the leadoff spot, which means he’ll get as many opportunities as possible to cash this bet.

And although Gausman is on a heater for the Blue Jays, this is a matchup that Duran can thrive in. After all, he’s done it before.

In their past matchups, Duran is 8-for-22 (.364) vs. Gausman with five doubles and a home run.

Duran went 2-0 vs. this prop last season when facing Gausman at Rogers Centre. He had an extra-base hit off the right-hander in both games.

Duran has 92nd-percentile sprint speed, according to Baseball Savant, and I like his chances of stretching for a double if he finds a gap.

Rogers Centre has allowed more doubles than average to left-handed batters in 12 of the past 14 seasons, as tracked by Baseball Savant’s park factors.

The other component I like for this play is that Duran fares well against Gausman’s two-pitch mix of four-seam fastballs and splitters.

Against those pitch types from right-handers this season, Duran has a .317/.412/.617 slash line in 180 at-bats.

Key stat: Over his past 19 games, Duran is 10-9 vs. this prop while slugging .507.

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Jays prop predictions

Parlay: Gausman over 5.5 Ks, Springer over 0.5 hits (+130): Despite what I think Duran could accomplish tonight, Gausman is in a good spot to mow down the Red Sox.

In his lone start vs. Boston this season, Gausman struck out 10 over 8.0 innings.

He has a 30.6% K rate against the Red Sox’ active lineup in 157 plate appearances (MLB average K rate is 22.1%).

Gausman is 7-4 vs. this prop in his past 11 starts, averaging 6.6 Ks per game.

I don’t mind backing Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-148) as a standalone here. But that’s a lot of juice, so I tacked on a hit from Springer to push this into plus-money territory.

Springer is batting .354 over his past 20 games and is 16-4 vs. this prop.

Yoshida over 0.5 RBI (+200): Yoshida is not your typical cleanup hitter. But he’s in the No. 4 spot right now, and that makes me very interested in this RBI prop price.

Though he only has three extra-base hits this month, Yoshida has been solid at the dish with a .313 batting average. And he’s 4-1 vs. this prop since moving into the cleanup spot.

Yoshida is also 6-for-12 with two doubles and a homer off Gausman. If there’s traffic on the basepaths in front of him, this price will look like a bargain.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 09/23/2025.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays series betting preview Sept. 23-25: Probable pitchers, ATS analysis and player trends

Fresh off a champagne and beer shower to celebrate their playoff berth, the Toronto Blue Jays are back at home with another important series on tap.

Toronto (90-66) became the first American League club to clinch a playoff spot, and the AL East title is the next thing in its sights. The Jays, who lead their division by two games, host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre this week with a shot at securing the No. 1 seed.

Check out our Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview for the Sept. 23-25 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview

The Blue Jays are in as great a shape as anyone could’ve asked for entering the season.

Entering the final week, they hold a multi-game lead in the contentious AL East with a prime opportunity to lock down the division at home.

Monday was a well-timed day off for a team that might’ve had a few hangovers following Sunday’s sudsy celebration. It’s back to work on Tuesday against a Red Sox team that is awfully hungry for a party of its own.

Boston is technically still alive for the division, but sitting five games back with six to play makes that an incredible long shot.

What’s more important for the Red Sox is securing a wild-card spot, as they are one of three teams competing for the AL’s fifth and sixth seeds.

Boston’s three best starters are lined up for this series, and both teams have rested bullpens. We could be in for some chess matches inside The Dome this week.

Starting pitcher matchups

Sept. 9: RHP Lucas Giolito (10-4, 3.46 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.38 ERA)

Both of Giolito’s outings vs. the Jays this year were quality starts, but it’s been almost three months since he saw them. Giolito’s 5.04 xERA and .273 xBA are both in the bottom-20th percentile in MLB, per Baseball Savant, so his solid results this year could be a bit fluky.

Gausman wasn’t an all-star this year, but he would be if the first and second halves were flipped. Since the break, the right-hander has a 2.19 ERA and a .170 opponent batting average in 11 outings. Somehow, Toronto is only 5-6 in those games.

Sept. 10: RHP Garrett Crochet (17-5, 2.69 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (5-4, 5.06 ERA)

Crochet has been even better than advertised in his first season with Boston, pacing the majors in strikeouts (249) and innings (197.1) in just his second year as a starter. The Red Sox are 22-9 in his outings, winning each of the past six.

Scherzer is coming off his worst start of the year, as he allowed seven runs while recording just two outs against the Royals. He has a 9.45 ERA over his past five starts, with 35 baserunners allowed in 20.0 innings. This would be a logical piggybacking opportunity for Jose Berrios, who was moved to the bullpen but hasn’t pitched since Sept. 16.

Sept. 11: RHP Brayan Bello (11-8, 3.34 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (3-2, 3.57 ERA)

Toronto hitters have seen plenty of Bello through the years, and the results have been solid on their side. The Jays’ lineup is batting .299 with a .449 SLG in 127 at-bats vs. Bello. In his lone start against Toronto this year, he allowed three runs on eight hits over 6.0 IP in a 9-0 loss.

It’s only been six starts, but Bieber continues to be a reliable arm for Toronto. He has pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in every outing, and he has a 6.8 K/BB ratio (MLB average is 2.62).

Who’s hot and who’s not

George Springer (DH/OF): Springer still has MLB’s best wRC+ in the second half (206), and his September has been among the league’s best, too. This month, the veteran outfielder has a .333/.419/.640 slash line in 18 games. He is 10-9 vs. both his runs prop and his total bases prop.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B): Am I nitpicking by highlighting Guerrero here? Maybe a little bit. He hasn’t been bad per se, but his 14-game home run drought is worth noting. In that span, Guerrero is batting .296 but with a feeble .333 SLG. He’s still in the 90th percentile or better in a ton of key offensive metrics (including xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate and K rate), but Toronto needs more pop from its No. 3 hitter.

Trevor Story (SS): In his past 20 games, Story has a .321/.368/.506 slash line and eight stolen bases. He was bumped up to the No. 2 spot in Boston’s order five games ago and has scored a run in every game since.

Aroldis Chapman (RP): Chapman has been MLB’s best closer this season, so it’ll take more than a couple of so-so outings to alter his reputation. But he has allowed two runs and seven baserunners over his past five outings, which is why he’s featured here. Prior to that, Chapman had gone 17 consecutive appearances without allowing a hit or a run.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends

Toronto has the 3rd-best run line record in MLB (87-69, 55.8%).

Overs are 85-65-6 in Blue Jays games (1st in MLB).

Overs are 42-35-1 when Boston is playing on the road (4th in MLB).

The Jays are 50-25 at home (2nd in MLB).

Toronto is 7-3 vs. Boston this year. In their past two series against each other, the average game total was 10.7 runs.

Jeff Hoffman is 3-for-3 in save opportunities over his past 10 games, allowing just one run in that span.

Alejandro Kirk is 5-for-37 (.135) with zero extra-base hits in his past 13 games.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 22: Back starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Michael McGreevy

Prop bets on pitchers Freddy Peralta and Michael McGreevy make up my top plays for Monday’s light MLB slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: I’m betting on recent trends to continue for the two starters. The Milwaukee Brewers ace has cleared the prop I’m playing at a 100% rate since August, while the St. Louis Cardinals rookie has topped his number at an 89% clip over the same time period.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 22.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: McGreevy over 16.5 outs (-130)

The Cardinals righty won’t wow with swing-and-miss stuff, but getting to 17 outs doesn’t require that.

McGreevy isn’t the flashiest arm, though his start at a top-tier pitching park against an ordinary offence makes him an attractive play.

Low strikeout rates and excellent control have allowed him to keep his pitch counts in check and clear this line often despite reaching 100 pitches once in 14 starts.

McGreevy was roughed up for six runs and a season-high nine hits by the Giants earlier this month, but I’m looking right past that tonight.

The Giants are 20th in wRC+ this month and have been a below-average offence at their home stadium, Oracle Park, a dreadful venue for home runs and offence in general.

Key stat: McGreevy has thrown six-plus innings in eight of his last nine starts.

Best MLB picks

Peralta over 5.5 Ks (-125): The San Diego Padres are among the hardest teams in the majors to retire on strikes.

And Peralta only fanned three batters when he faced them in June. But he’s on a sensational run right now:

Peralta has allowed one run or fewer in seven of eight starts since the beginning of August.

Over that stretch, he leads all starters in strikeout rate, punching out 35.5% of the batters he’s faced.

Peralta has cleared this number in all eight of those outings and is 15-2 vs. this line since facing the Padres earlier this year.

San Diego has the third-lowest K rate in the second half but Peralta has had challenging matchups over his dominant two-month stretch.

He has faced several teams with bottom-10 second-half K rates and cleared this line against them. That includes the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs.

MLB prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 09/22/2025.